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Willi Semmler

17 August 2006
We estimate a dynamic, inter-temporal optimisation model that mimics features of European labour markets, such as sticky nominal wages and sluggish adjustment of employment to shocks for 15 OECD countries. The estimates include a measure for the degree of labour market sluggishness that compares well with standard indicators of product and labour market regulation. Calibration of the model on a selected country sample confirms its explanatory power in comparison with the standard competitive markets model. In a second step, the measure for labour market sluggishness is used as a policy variable and model variants are simulated in order to assess the extent to which the countries would have performed better with more flexible labour markets. These policy experiments show that an increase in labour market flexibility reduces the volatility of consumption relative to production, improves inter-temporal efficiency but entails higher employment risk.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
C61 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Optimization Techniques, Programming Models, Dynamic Analysis
25 January 2017
We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale underlying the capacity constraint theory (Macklem (1997)). The theoretical model motivates our empirical assessment for the euro area, based on a regime-switching Phillips curve and a regime-switching monetary structural VAR, employing different filter-based, semi-structural model-based and Bayesian factor model-implied output gaps. The analysis confirms the presence of a pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the coefficient in the Phillips curve on the output gap recurringly increases during times of expansion and abates during recessions. The regime switching VAR reveals the business cycle dependence of macroeconomic responses to monetary policy shocks: Expansionary monetary policy induces less pressure on inflation at times of weak as opposed to strong growth; thereby rationalizing relatively stronger expansionary policy, including unconventional volume-based policy such as the Expanded Asset Purchase Programme (EAPP) of the ECB, during times of deep recession.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Task force on low inflation (LIFT)
21 June 2017
We investigate the consequences of overleveraging and the potential for destabilizing effects from financial- and real-sector interactions. In a theoretical framework, we model overleveraging and indicate how a highly leveraged banking system can lead to unstable dynamics and downward spirals. Inspired by Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2014) and Stein (2012), we empirically measure the deviation-from-optimal-leverage for 40 large EU banks. We then use this measure to condition the joint dynamics of credit flows and macroeconomic activity in a large-scale regime change model: A Threshold Mixed-Cross-Section Global Vector Autoregressive (T-MCS-GVAR) model. The regime-switching component of the model aims to make the relationship between credit and real activity dependent on the extent to which the banking system is overleveraged. We find significant nonlinearities as a function of overleverage. When leverage is standing above its equilibrium level, the effect of a deleveraging shocks on credit supply and economic activity are visibly more detrimental than at times of underleveraging.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
C13 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Estimation: General
G6 : Financial Economics