European Central Bank - eurosystem
Search Options
Home Media Explainers Research & Publications Statistics Monetary Policy The €uro Payments & Markets Careers
Suggestions
Sort by

Sebastiano Michele Zema

15 September 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2721
Details
Abstract
The network structure of non-centrally cleared derivative markets, uncovered via the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR), is investigated with a focus on the Covid-19 market turmoil period. Initial and variation margin networks are reconstructed to analyze channels of potential losses and liquidity dynamics. Despite the absence of central clearing, the derivative network is found to be ultrasmall and a filtering tool is proposed to identify channels in the network characterized by the highest exposures. I find these exposures to be mainly toward institutions outside the euro-area (EA), emphasizing the need for cooperation across different jurisdictions. Anomalous behavior in terms of diverging first and second moments on the degree and strength distributions are detected, signaling the presence of large exposures generating extreme liquidity outflows. A reference table of parameters’ estimates based on real data is provided for different network sizes, with no break of confidentiality, making possible to simulate in a realistic way the liquidity dynamic in global derivative markets even when the access to supervisory data is not granted.
JEL Code
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
25 May 2022
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2022
Details
Abstract
Synthetic leverage has become an important feature of the financial system. In our analysis, we propose two complementary measures that explore the link between synthetic leverage and margining in equity derivative portfolios of non-banks. We show that leverage risk can materialise through margin calls and uncovered counterparty exposure during periods of high market volatility.
JEL Code
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
17 November 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box establishes stylised facts about the significant increase in initial margin (IM) in the euro area derivatives market during the March 2020 market turmoil. First, it shows that the increase was concentrated almost entirely in centrally cleared derivatives and driven mainly by equity, credit and interest rate portfolios. Second, by comparing static portfolios with those where portfolio repositioning took place, the IM increase is decomposed into (i) changes attributable to the CCP model sensitivity to market volatility, and (ii) changes attributable to portfolio repositioning by investors. For centrally cleared interest rate and credit derivatives (where this method is applicable), CCP model sensitivity to market volatility is found to be a key driver of the IM increase. Overall, the results suggest that it is important to develop a clearer understanding of “excessive procyclicality” for IM and possibly, on the basis of this common understanding, to review the models which CCPs use to calibrate IMs. The supervisory and regulatory framework governing the liquidity management of market participants, and in particular that of some non-bank financial intermediaries, should also be strengthened.
JEL Code
C60 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→General
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing