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Romain Angotti

15 May 2024
This paper proposes an operational approach to stress testing, allowing one to assess the banking sector’s vulnerability in multiple plausible macro-financial scenarios. The approach helps identify macro-financial risk factors of particular relevance for the banking system and individual banks and searches for scenarios that could push them towards their worst outcomes. We demonstrate this concept using a macroprudential stress testing model for the euro area. By doing so, we show how multiple-scenario stress testing can complement single-scenario stress tests, aid in scenario design, and evaluate risks in the banking system. We also show how stress tests and scenarios can be optimized to accommodate different mandates and instruments of supervisory and macroprudential agencies.
JEL Code
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation