- 19 May 2004
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 362Details
- This paper assesses empirically the effects of oil price shocks on the real economic activity of the main industrialised countries. Multivariate VAR analysis is carried out using both linear and nonlinear models. The latter category includes three approaches employed in the literature, namely, the asymmetric, scaled and net specifications. We find evidence of a non-linear impact of oil prices on real GDP. In particular, oil price increases are found to have an impact on GDP growth of a larger magnitude than that of oil price declines, with the latter being statistically insignificant in most cases. Among oil importing countries, oil price increases are found to have a negative impact on economic activity in all cases but Japan. Moreover, the effect of oil shocks on GDP growth differs between the two oil exporting countries in our sample, with the UK being negatively affected by an oil price increase and Norway benefiting from it.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 30 March 2010
- LEGAL WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 11The role of national central banks in banking supervision in selected central and eastern European countriesDetails
- Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Poland and Slovakia have recently undertaken substantial reforms of their supervisory frameworks, aimed at reducing the number of supervisory authorities operating in the domestic financial sector. This working paper examines from a legal perspective national central bank (NCB) involvement in banking supervision in the above-mentioned countries and, in the light of this comparative examination, draws conclusions about the nature and scope of that involvement. The analysis reveals that the trend towards consolidation of supervisory authorities is not always linked to a tendency to diminish or suspend NCB powers in the area of banking supervision: in three of the countries reviewed, the NCBs have sole competence for banking supervision, and in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, integrated supervision has even been placed under the NCB's roof. In the jurisdictions where the NCBs do not perform the supervisory function, the NCBs have nevertheless remained involved in supervision in many different ways, they have a substantial involvement in the preparation of legislation relating to supervision; they may influence the performance of the supervisory function by interaction with the supervisory authorities at the level of their decision-making bodies, through the conclusion of agreements, establishment of common bodies, etc.; and finally NCBs have also demonstrated some capacity to influence the operational side of banking supervision in the areas of licensing, on-going supervision and the imposition of sanctions or remedial measures in the case of breaches of supervisory law requirements. This working paper takes into account the legislation in force in the seven Member States under consideration as at 1 November 2009.
- JEL Code
- K : Law and Economics
- 14 April 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1168Details
- In this paper we analyse the pass-through of a commodity price shock along the food price chain in the euro area. Unlike the existing literature, which mainly focuses on food commodity prices quoted in international markets, we use a novel database that accounts for the role of the Common Agricultural Policy in the European Union. We model several departures from the linear pass-through benchmark and compare alternative specifications with aggregate and disaggregate food data. Overall, when the appropriate dataset and methodology are used, it is possible to identify a significant and longlasting food price pass-through. The results of our regressions are applied to the strong increase in food prices in the 2007-08 period; a simple decomposition exercise shows that commodity prices are the main determinant of the increase in producer and consumer prices, thus solving the pass-through puzzle highlighted in the existing literature for the euro area.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
Q17 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Agriculture→Agriculture in International Trade