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Diogo Sá

8 February 2024
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
Financial markets and analysts significantly underestimated the pace and size of the recent increases in the key ECB interest rates. This box measures the size and dynamics of policy expectation errors. Based on information from the ECB’s Survey of Monetary Analysts, it suggests that these expectation errors were driven mainly by revisions to macroeconomic expectations, indicating that analysts perceived a broadly consistent policy reaction to macroeconomic developments.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates