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Daniel Neuhann

19 September 2016
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 25
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Abstract
This paper develops a theory of the secondary market trading of financial securitities in which endogenous asset market dynamics generate periods of growing aggregate credit volumes and falling credit standards even in the absence of “financial shocks.” Falling credit standards in turn lead to excess risk exposure in the aggregate, precipitating future crises. The credit cycle is triggered by low interest rates, and longer booms lead to sharper crises. Saving gluts and expansionary monetary policy thus lead to financial fragility over time. Pro-cyclical regulation of secondary market traders, such as asset managers or hedge funds, can improve welfare even when such traders are not levered.
JEL Code
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
17 March 2017
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2039
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Abstract
This paper develops a theory of the credit cycle to account for recent evidence that capital is increasingly allocated to inefficiently risky projects over the course of the boom. The model features lenders who sell risk exposure to non-lender investors in order to relax borrowing constraints, but are tempted to produce and sell off bad assets when asset prices are sufficiently high. Asset prices gradually increase during the boom because non-lender wealth grows as their risk-taking pays off, triggering a fall in asset quality and precipitating an eventual crisis. I study the initial conditions that give rise to the credit cycle and consider policy implications.
JEL Code
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
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