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Aaron N. Mehrotra

7 April 2005
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 467
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Abstract
This paper examines the link between socio-economic development and fiscal policy. We introduce an indicator for socio-economic development (SEDI) and investigate its relationship with different fiscal variables, using data for the cohesion countries, namely Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland for 1980-1999. We find that an improvement in the net lending position of the government, as well as a fall in the level of public debt, would be beneficial for socio-economic development in the medium term. Furthermore, fiscal consolidation is found to be more relevant for promoting socio-economic development in the cohesion countries than in the other EU-15 Member States. Our results provide support for incentives to curb spending, such as the fiscal criteria of the Maastricht Treaty or the Stability and Growth Pact.
JEL Code
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
H5 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
I0 : Health, Education, and Welfare→General
30 November 2007
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 829
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Abstract
We model provincial inflation in China during the reform period. In particular, we are interested in the ability of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) to capture the inflation process at the provincial level. The study highlights differences in inflation formation and shows that the NKPC provides a reasonable description of the inflation process only for the coastal provinces. A probit analysis suggests that the forwardlooking inflation component and the output gap are important inflation drivers in provinces that have advanced most in marketisation of the economy and have most likely experienced excess demand pressures. These results have implications for the relative effectiveness of monetary policy across the Chinese provinces.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes