Publications on International and European Co-operation
Among other publications, this section includes replies to questions from Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). For a complete list of MEP questions, please consult the relevant section of the European Parliament’s website.
- 6 May 2022
- MEP LETTER
- 6 May 2022
- MEP LETTER
- 25 April 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The recent sharp increase in energy prices has significantly pushed up euro area import prices, resulting in a deterioration in the euro area terms of trade. As the demand for energy is rigid in the short term, this implies a transfer of purchasing power from the euro area to the rest of the world. We estimate a net income loss of 1.3 percentage points of GDP in the last quarter of 2021 as compared with the previous year. This consists in a drop of 3.5 percentage points of GDP due to the rise in energy prices, which is only partly offset by higher euro area export prices. The resulting widening of the deficit in the energy trade balance has reduced the euro area current account balance, and this effect is only partially compensated for by other components.
- JEL Code
- B17 : History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches→History of Economic Thought through 1925
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- 20 April 2022
- MEP LETTER
- 20 April 2022
- MEP LETTER
- 20 April 2022
- MEP LETTER
- 24 March 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Recent tensions in China’s real estate market have highlighted the risks inherent in the country’s highly leveraged corporate sector. These risks have been building up for some time, as high investment rates have coincided with high levels of debt accumulation. Moreover, the source of debt has moved beyond the traditional banking sector, with non-bank financial institutions providing financing which is less stable and more susceptible to sudden changes in investor sentiment. In addition, tensions in large corporate sectors could be transmitted to the rest of the economy through a number of channels. These channels include households, which are themselves increasingly leveraged and whose wealth is significantly exposed to the real estate market. A wider Chinese growth slowdown could, in turn, have global repercussions, given the size of the Chinese economy, its important global trade linkages and the central role it plays in international commodity markets. Against this backdrop, this article will review the rise in financial risks in China’s economy stemming from increasing private sector leverage, the interconnectedness between the financial and non-bank financial sectors, and households’ rising debt exposures.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
G5 : Financial Economics
- 18 March 2022
- MEP LETTER
- 11 March 2022
- MEP LETTER
- 11 March 2022
- MEP LETTER
- 11 March 2022
- MEP LETTER
- 11 March 2022
- MEP LETTER
- 7 February 2022
- MEP LETTER
- 7 February 2022
- MEP LETTER
- 7 February 2022
- MEP LETTER
- 7 February 2022
- MEP LETTER
- 7 February 2022
- MEP LETTER
- 13 January 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box discusses the fiscal policy recommendations addressed to the euro area countries against the background of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
- 20 December 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 20 December 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 20 December 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 20 December 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 17 December 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 2 December 2021
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 10 November 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box reviews recent data for evidence of scarring effects stemming from the coronavirus (COVID-19) shock on the global economy (excluding the euro area). Taking a production function approach perspective, it analyses recent data relevant for determining the evolution of potential output and compares them with developments in the aftermath of the Great Recession. The stylised facts suggest that the level of global potential output has declined during the pandemic, albeit less than during the Great Recession. This decline can mostly be attributed to temporary factors, although more lasting damage may occur if people remain out of work for longer, loose their skills or become long-term unemployed.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
- 29 October 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 30 September 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 30 September 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 17 September 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 17 September 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 17 September 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 17 September 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 28 July 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 23 July 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 23 July 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 24 June 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the fiscal policy developments outlined in the 2021 stability programmes.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
- 21 June 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 21 June 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 2 June 2021
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EUROAnnexes
- 2 June 2021
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO
- 28 May 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 28 May 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 28 May 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 28 May 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 28 May 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 28 May 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 28 May 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 28 May 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 28 May 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 4 May 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This article aims to take stock of how Brexit-related developments in UK import demand affected euro area foreign demand over the period 2016-19. UK import growth has slowed markedly since the Brexit referendum in 2016, particularly in terms of imports from the EU. We find that the depreciation of sterling squeezed UK household purchasing power, leading to lower import demand. We employ an ECM regression of UK import growth on the various GDP components and relative prices and detect a reduction in the UK’s overall import propensity since the referendum. We also identify sustainability risks for euro area foreign demand emanating from the UK’s balance of payments.
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
- 3 May 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021Details
- Abstract
- A rapid recovery in activity and trade has lengthened supplier delivery times, while international shipping costs have also increased. This box analyses the factors driving the surge in shipping costs by means of a Structural VAR model. It concludes that recent developments reflect rising demand and, to a smaller degree, supply constraints in the shipping industry. At the same time, the impact of rising shipping costs on overall consumer prices is expected to be limited.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
F01 : International Economics→General→Global Outlook
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 23 April 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 23 April 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 23 April 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 23 April 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 26 March 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 26 March 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 26 March 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 26 March 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 26 March 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 5 February 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 5 February 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 5 February 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 5 February 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 5 February 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 5 February 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 4 February 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box studies the relative impact on inflation of pandemic-induced demand and supply constraints for key advanced economies outside the euro area by using granular data on consumption expenditures and prices and a structural Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) framework. It finds that during the initial phase of the pandemic, consumer price inflation was driven more by demand-sensitive components and less by supply-sensitive ones. The structural analysis confirms a dominant role for demand shocks in the pandemic. It concludes that the impact of pandemic-related supply constraints on inflation appears limited to date. Yet, more granular analysis is needed to assess the consequences of the pandemic for the drivers of inflation.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
- 2 February 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the drivers of intra-country regional differences in the economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19), as observed in the four largest euro area economies during the initial phase of the pandemic. More specifically, it discusses how the interaction between government containment measures, sectoral structure and trade linkages helps explain the intra-country regional variations in the labour market impact of the pandemic. It finds that the different economic impact across regions cannot be explained solely by the spread of infections, a region’s economic structure is also a key determinant. Moreover, the trade relations of a region, both within and across countries, are found to be an important indirect channel through which coronavirus-related disturbances affect regional economic activity, highlighting vulnerabilities which may arise from disruptions to highly integrated EU supply chains.
- JEL Code
- R11 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
J40 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Particular Labor Markets→General
R15 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Econometric and Input?Output Models, Other Models
- 1 February 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXRotation towards normality – the impact of COVID-19 vaccine-related news on global financial marketsEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021Details
- Abstract
- Using a database on vaccine probability events dating back to April 2020, this box assesses the impact of a broad range of COVID-19 vaccine-related news on global financial markets. It finds that positive vaccine news leads to a rotation back towards assets hardest hit by the pandemic, disproportionately benefits lagging economies and has a positive net effect on financial conditions.
- JEL Code
- F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 22 January 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 22 January 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 22 January 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 22 January 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 22 January 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 22 January 2021
- MEP LETTER
- 7 January 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This box aims to assess the long-term implications of past crises for the global economy’s potential output and to discuss potential scarring effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Starting with a review of past crises and the transmission channels through which potential output is affected, it concludes that the pandemic could leave scarring effects on the global economy, with labour supply likely to be initially hit the most. However, effects on the capital stock are potentially more relevant over the medium to long term.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
- 4 January 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This box assesses the implications of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic for the euro area tourism sector, trade in travel services and consumption of non-residents. Declining mobility during the pandemic has led to a slump in trade in services and tourism. As a result, the drop in non-resident consumption has acted as a shock amplification mechanism in countries exporting tourism services, i.e. countries which receive a lot of tourists, and as a shock absorption mechanism in countries importing tourism services. The partial recovery of tourism services observed during the summer months was mostly generated by domestic tourism substituting foreign tourism. The reintroduction of travel restrictions in October will likely imply that this substitution will continue to affect the dynamics of tourism services. High-frequency data on tourism, travel and services production point to a renewed overall deterioration of tourism services in the final quarter of 2020.
- JEL Code
- E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
Z3 : Other Special Topics
- 29 December 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 29 December 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 29 December 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 29 December 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 29 December 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 29 December 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 29 December 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 19 November 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 12 November 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2020Details
- Abstract
- The September 2020 ECB staff macroeconomic projections used a revised weighting scheme for the euro area’s trading partners. Two key conceptual changes were implemented in the weighting scheme this year. First, data on trade in services were used in addition to data on trade in goods. Second, the number of euro area trading partners was increased from 30 to 42. As a result of these changes, the coverage of the euro area’s foreign demand by individual country data increased from 85% to 92%, with the remaining countries covered by regional aggregates.
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
F01 : International Economics→General→Global Outlook
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- 30 October 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 30 October 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 30 October 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 28 September 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 25 September 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 25 September 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 25 September 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 23 September 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020Details
- Abstract
- Adverse shocks induced by containment measures in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) are not limited to the originating country. Foreign trade, while not the sole propagation mechanism, transmits these shocks across economies. In the euro area, the deep integration of firms within regional supply chains ‑ as well as strong final demand linkages ‑ acts as a magnifying mechanism. This article quantifies the propagation and impact of adverse shocks originating in the euro area on euro area GDP, foreign trade and trade balances. It concludes that the transmission to the rest of the euro area of a shock originating in one of the five largest Member States ranges from 15% to 28% of the original shock’s size. The negative spillover effects are most severe for open countries and those most intertwined in regional production network.
- JEL Code
- F00 : International Economics→General→General
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
- 23 September 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020Details
- Abstract
- The EU’s recovery package represents an important milestone in European economic policy integration. The European financial support to be provided is intended to have a meaningful volume in macroeconomic terms, totalling almost 5% of euro area GDP. Moreover, the allocation key ensures stronger macroeconomic support for more vulnerable countries. This coordinated European policy response to COVID-19 is essential to avoid an uneven recovery and economic fragmentation while promoting economic resilience in Member States. Finally, the way that the EU has responded to the crisis also has implications for the implementation and future design of the European governance framework.
- JEL Code
- F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H12 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Crisis Management
- 21 September 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This article will trace the decline and subsequent recovery of China’s economy following the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19). It employs high-frequency data to assess the speed at which activity in different sectors of the economy is normalising after businesses were allowed to resume operations. One particular focus will be on differentiating between the industrial and services sectors, which are subject to different health and safety measures. The article finds that China’s economic activity rose from a trough of around 20% of normal levels in February 2020 to 90% in the span of just three months. While production capacity recovered swiftly, activity normalised more gradually in the services sector, where COVID-19 containment measures had continued to weigh heavily. The recovery was driven primarily by private domestic demand and the authorities’ policy response, as the normalisation in China coincided with the implementation of lockdown measures by many of its trading partners and hence also with a fall in external demand. Looking ahead, uncertainty and risks surrounding the recovery path remain exceptionally high, owing in large part to the uncertainty regarding how the COVID-19 pandemic will develop and if and when a medical solution to the virus can be found.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
F1 : International Economics→Trade
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
- 2 September 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 2 September 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 2 September 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 2 September 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 2 September 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 24 July 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 10 July 2020
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 10 July 2020
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 29 June 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 29 June 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 29 June 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 19 June 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 19 June 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 19 June 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 19 June 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 9 June 2020
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EUROAnnexes
- 9 June 2020
- ANNEX
Related- 9 June 2020
- PRESS RELEASE
- 8 June 2020
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 5 June 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 15 May 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 15 May 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 15 May 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 15 May 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 15 May 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 15 May 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 11 May 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 11 May 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 11 May 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 7 May 2020
- OTHER PUBLICATIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Related
- 7 May 2020
- ANNUAL REPORTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 22 April 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 22 April 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 22 April 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 22 April 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 22 April 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 26 March 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This box assesses the impact of fiscal measures to address climate change on growth and inflation over the March 2020 ECB staff projection horizon. Policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the EU comprise: (a) the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and (b) national measures in sectors which are not covered by the ETS. Overall, the baseline assumes some impact of climate measures on prices related to the German climate package, while the assumed impact of measures in other countries is limited.
- JEL Code
- E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 25 March 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- The US corporate tax reform that entered into force at the beginning of 2018 resulted in foreign direct investment flows reversing for the first time in the euro area. The episode is explained fully by developments in countries which are financial centres, where disinvestment operations were carried out via special purpose entities, initially through transactions in equities and later also in debt securities. Besides the bilateral flows with the United States, which were the first to be affected, foreign direct investment flows to and from offshore centres also reversed, reflecting the complex geographical structure of capital allocation by US multinational enterprises.
- JEL Code
- F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F38 : International Economics→International Finance→International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
- 24 March 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This article analyses how the operations of large multinational enterprises (MNEs) affect the external account of the euro area and, in general, financial centres. The increased ease of moving intangible assets, profits and headquarters across borders poses challenges to the current framework of international statistics and economic analysis. First, the article shows how MNE operations are recorded in cross-border statistics, as well as the challenges in measuring such data. Second, the article highlights evidence of the impact that MNEs have on the external account of the euro area – this is most evident in current account balances and foreign direct investment in euro area financial centres, often involving special-purpose entities (SPEs). Third, the article looks at the tendency of financial centres to report current account surpluses that may be tentatively attributed, in part, to the activity of MNEs. Multilateral initiatives could help to improve the transparency of MNE operations and ensure an exchange of information across borders for tax and statistical purposes.
- JEL Code
- F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
- 23 March 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This box presents a simple indicator for US real economic activity based on the textual analysis of newspaper articles. The indicator correlates well with US contractions and NBER recession dates. In order to formally assess the predictive information content of the index, it is included in a regression framework in which US recessions are forecast. Results suggest that the index has good forecasting properties, outperforming a standard yield curve model at short horizons (up to eight months ahead). The text analysis index also improves the forecasting performance of standard yield curve models at longer horizons. Taken together, these results suggest that the index is useful for monitoring and predicting economic developments, particularly over short horizons. This approach also has the advantage of being easily updatable (on a daily basis) and applicable to different countries.
- JEL Code
- C1 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
C25 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, Discrete Regressors, Proportions
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 23 March 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This article provides a comprehensive overview of progress with the deepening of Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The start of a new legislative period for the European Union (2019-24) is a natural and opportune moment to take stock of progress towards completion of the architecture of EMU. The agenda that was proposed in the 2015 Five Presidents’ Report has yet to be fully implemented, with outstanding measures in the financial, fiscal, economic and political domains. This article surveys those various domains, looking at the elements that have been completed, those that are still ongoing, and those that are desirable but not yet under way. It then identifies priorities in terms of completing the banking union, deepening the integration of Europe’s capital markets, improving the euro area’s fiscal architecture and increasing the resilience of national economic structures.
- JEL Code
- E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
F55 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Institutional Arrangements
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 6 February 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020Details
- Abstract
- The inversion of the US yield curve during the summer of 2019 increased speculation about the possibility of a US recession. However, standard yield curve-based recession probability models ignore factors such as the impact of quantitative easing measures that can distort the signals derived from the current yield curve. This box presents alternative models to deal with these possible distortions. In particular, measures of the term spread that account for asset purchases in the United States, spillovers from euro area purchases to US yields and the effect of foreign official reserve holdings on long-term US yields are constructed. US recession probability models that account for asset purchases predict significantly lower recession probabilities than those implied by standard yield curve models, pointing to a somewhat more benign outlook for the US economy.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
- 6 February 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020Details
- Abstract
- Over the past year the global economy has transitioned from a robust and synchronised expansion to a widespread slowdown. Global growth has weakened on the back of soft investment, which was also a key driver of global trade’s sharp fall into contractionary territory in the first half of 2019 (see Chart A). The slowdown in global investment and trade has occurred in an environment of rising trade tensions between the United States and China, slowing Chinese demand, (geo-)political tensions, Brexit and idiosyncratic stresses in several emerging economies, with rising uncertainty magnifying the negative impact. Against this backdrop, this box assesses the role of uncertainty in the recent slowdown of global investment and trade.
- JEL Code
- F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
- 24 January 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 24 January 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 24 January 2020
- MEP LETTER
- 20 December 2019
- MEP LETTER
- 20 December 2019
- MEP LETTER
- 13 December 2019
- MEP LETTER
- 13 December 2019
- MEP LETTER
- 13 December 2019
- MEP LETTER
- 22 November 2019
- MEP LETTER
- 27 September 2019
- MEP LETTER
- 27 September 2019
- MEP LETTER
- 27 September 2019
- MEP LETTER
- 27 September 2019
- MEP LETTER
- 8 August 2019
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the fiscal policy recommendations addressed to the euro area countries against the background of downside risks to the outlook for a continued economic expansion. The examination shows that in countries with high levels of government debt, building buffers to strengthen resilience in cyclical downturns remains a priority for fiscal policies. At the same time, countries that have achieved sound fiscal positions could utilise some fiscal space for measures to support economic growth.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
- 8 August 2019
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the country-specific recommendations (CSRs) for economic policies in euro area countries under the 2019 European Semester. Overall, the 2019 CSRs place greater emphasis on investment-enhancing structural policies and financial sector policies. However, continued weak CSR implementation by Member States remains a challenge. The implementation of structural reforms needs to be substantially stepped up to increase the economic resilience and growth potential of the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
F02 : International Economics→General→International Economic Order
- 26 July 2019
- MEP LETTER
- 26 July 2019
- MEP LETTER
- 10 July 2019
- MEP LETTER
- 28 June 2019
- MEP LETTER
- 14 June 2019
- MEP LETTER
- 14 June 2019
- MEP LETTER
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- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2018Details
- Abstract
- The relevance of foreign direct investment (FDI) as a source of economic activity has increased rapidly over the last decade. Between 2000 and 2016 the share of FDI stock in global GDP increased from 22% to 35%. Following a decline during the Great Recession, mergers and acquisitions (M&As), the most dynamic component of FDI, have recovered, reaching a record value of USD 1.2 trillion in the first quarter of 2018. The intensification of FDI activity has important implications for both origin and destination countries in terms of, for example, economic growth, productivity, wages and employment. Moreover, the expansion of multinational enterprises (MNEs) has been accompanied by the creation of complex cross-border production chains, which also has important implications. This article presents several findings regarding the main developments in and determinants of FDI over the past decade, at both global and EU level. Since the beginning of the 2000s there has been a gradual shift in the global FDI landscape, with emerging market economies (EMEs) gaining in prominence both as a source of and as a destination for such investment. EMEs have attracted a growing share of FDI flows, reaching more than 50% of the world’s total inward FDI in 2013. In addition, FDI flows are dominated by a relatively small number of M&As. In 2016 M&As with a value in excess of USD 1 billion accounted for only 1% of all FDI projects, but they generated 55% of total FDI flows. Moreover, evidence suggests that FDI and exports are not competing but complementary strategies for serving foreign markets. Finally, since 2008 EU countries are no longer the world’s main FDI investors and recipients. Nevertheless, econometric analysis shows that belonging to the EU dramatically boosts FDI flows in member countries.
- JEL Code
- F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
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