EB focus published in 2019

7 February 2019
The mechanical impact of changes in oil price assumptions on projections for euro area HICP energy inflation

Abstract

JEL Classification

E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation

Abstract

Inflation projections are based on models, assumptions and expert judgement. These include assumptions regarding the future evolution of oil prices, which mainly affect energy prices. Oil prices and oil futures have moved down significantly since autumn 2018, below the assumptions of the December 2018 Eurosystem staff projections. This box documents the mechanical implications of this shift for the projections of the energy component of HICP inflation.

Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2019
6 February 2019
Recent developments in oil prices

Abstract

JEL Classification

Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets

Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices

Abstract

Against the background of large swings in oil prices in recent months, the box assesses the key drivers of oil market developments. While demand has been relatively stable, supply factors have been the main driving force behind recent oil price volatility.

Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2019
4 February 2019
Driving factors of and risks to domestic demand in the euro area

Abstract

JEL Classification

E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth

E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity

E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles

Abstract

Activity in the euro area is expected to continue to expand at a moderate pace, while more elevated uncertainty points to intensified downside risks to the growth outlook. In the context of a maturing business cycle, growth in both private consumption and business investment are expected to continue, despite a more uncertain environment. Nevertheless, the resilience of the domestic demand components, in particular investment, could be particularly challenged by increasing global uncertainty related inter alia to an escalation in trade tensions.

Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2019