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  • Call for papers
  • Submission deadline: 16 September 2022

Inflation and financial stability

Joint ECB and ESRB research workshop

Thursday, 17 November 2022

Online workshop via WebEx

Background

Consumer price inflation has risen sharply around the world reaching, in several jurisdictions, record levels not seen in decades. A combination of demand and supply factors is behind these dynamics. On the one hand, economic rebound in the post-Covid era has occurred more rapidly in some areas and boosted demand also amid high saving stocks. On the other hand, high energy and food prices and supply-side bottlenecks have been exacerbated by the Russian-Ukraine war and the persistent pandemic impacts. While some of these factors are expected to fade out over time, others may be more persistent. This, combined with the rapid and sharp nature of upward revisions to inflation, may represent tail risks to financial stability.

This workshop aims at addressing several questions, notably: How and to what extent can periods of unexpectedly elevated inflation impact financial stability? How might this impact differ, depending on the nature and persistence of inflation? Answering these questions is far from trivial, given the complexity at which inflation impacts the real economy and financial markets, and its interaction with expectations. Impacts may be felt in the non-financial sector; despite a declining real debt burden, high inflation can reduce the capacity of different borrowers to service their debt, especially in areas where supply-side factors play a particularly prominent role in driving inflation. High pressure can also weigh on the real estate market, stemming from potential reduction in demand on one side and increasing construction costs on the other side. Impacts may extend to the financial sector; squeezed household disposable incomes and corporate net profits, for instance, might translate into higher credit risk and lead to a deterioration of financial institutions’ asset quality. In the light of such considerations, price stability clearly has implications for financial stability.

In this context, the ECB and the ESRB are organising the annual joint Macroprudential Analysis Group (MPAG) and Analysis Working Group (AWG) workshop entitled “Inflation and financial stability”. The workshop will take place via WebEx on 17 November 2022 and is an excellent opportunity for policymakers, supervisors and academia to interact and share practical experience and research insights.

Objectives

The broader objective of the workshop is to facilitate and strengthen the dialogue among policymakers and supervisors, while benefitting from the perspective of researchers, thereby advancing our collective understanding of the channels through which high inflation could affect financial stability, taking into account the implications for governments, firms (both financial and non-financial), households and financial markets.

Topics

We welcome all theoretical and empirical contributions on the impacts of rising inflation, whether temporary or structural, on financial stability, in particular with a focus on the following topics:

  • Evaluating the effects of inflation on financial stability, in the real economy and financial markets

    • Inflation and the real economy: financial challenges for households and corporates
    • Inflation and financial stability risks stemming from the real estate market
  • Evaluating the effects of inflation on financial institutions

    • Inflation and the banking system (e.g. impact of rising rates, credit risk stemming from real sector weaknesses)
    • Inflation and non-banks: financial markets, asset repricing, institutional investors
    • Inflation, commodity prices and margin calls
  • Financial cycle phase considerations

    • Financial stability relevant risk build-up in an environment of high inflation (time series dimension of systemic risk)
    • Financial stability relevant risk materialisation in an environment of high inflation (cross sectional dimension of systemic risk)

Submissions

Deadline for submission: 16 September 2022

The workshop’s organisers welcome submissions of authors from ESRB and ECB member institutions as well as academics and members of other EU/international financial institutions with a professional interest in the issues outlined above. Interested authors should send either completed draft papers or abstracts to EURiskWorkshop@ecb.europa.eu by 16 September 2022. All submissions should be in English (in PDF format), should include an abstract and the name and email address of the nominated author who will present the paper at the workshop in November.

Selection process and workshop attendance

The organising committee will review all submissions received by the deadline based on their quality, relevance and the level of interest that they are likely to generate, whilst also taking into account the overall balance of the workshop in terms of topics discussed and methodologies adopted. All authors will be notified at the beginning of October 2022 as to whether their paper has been selected.

Participation to the workshop will be by invitation only to selected ECB and ESRB expert groups and committees. The media will not be invited to this workshop.

Organising committee
  • Emmanuelle Assouan, MPAG-AWG co-chair
  • Paul Hiebert, MPAG-AWG co-chair
  • Ludivine Berret, AWG Secretary
  • Giorgia De Nora, MPAG Secretary
  • Magnus Andersson, ESRB Secretariat
  • Federico M. Signoretti, Banca d’Italia
  • Peter Welz, ECB
  • Anne McTaggart, ECB
  • Shirley Simmons-Nocca, ESRB Secretariat