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Third conference on expectations surveys

Joint conference of the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Thursday, 13 and Friday, 14 October 2022

Hybrid event: Federal Reserve Bank and online

The aim of the conference is to bring together scholars to present their current research involving expectations surveys.

Over the past decade, researchers and central banks have started to collect survey data on expectations from consumers, economists, professional forecasters, and firms. These surveys provide insights into how economic agents form and update their expectations, the heterogeneity and biases in these expectations, and how these expectations feed into economic decisions that can have wide implications for the economy and for monetary policy. The conference program will feature two plenary keynote sessions by Francesca Molinari (Cornell University) and Orazio Attanasio (Yale University).

Registration

This event is open to the public and media virtually.

Media who wish to register to attend virtually should contact Mariah Measey at mariah.measey@ny.frb.org.

Programme

Times are Eastern Daylight Time (CET-6)

* indicates the presenter

Thursday, 13 October 2022
8:30

Registration

8:50

Welcome remarks

9:00

Polarized Expectations

  • Rupal Kamdar*, Indiana University
  • Walker Ray, London School of Economics
 

The Curious Case of the Rise in Deflation Expectations

  • Olivier Armantier, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Gizem Kosar*, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Jason Somerville, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
 

Wealth Shocks and Portfolio Choice

  • Dimitris Christelis, University of Glasgow
  • Dimitris Georgarakos*, European Central Bank
  • Tullio Jappelli, University of Naples Federico II
  • Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
10:30

Coffee break

11:00

Special Lecture

Luigi Guiso, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance

12:00

Lunch

13:00

Perceived Returns to Job Search

  • Abi Adams-Prassl, University of Oxford
  • Teodora Boneva, University of Bonn
  • Marta Golin*, University of Zurich
  • Christopher Rauh, University of Cambridge
 

Examining Income Expectations in the College and Early Post-College Periods: New Distributional Tests of Rational Expectations

  • Thomas F. Crossley, European University Institute
  • Yifan Gong*, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
  • Ralph Stinebrickner, Berea College
  • Todd Stinebrickner, University of Western Ontario
 

Estimating Students' Valuation for College Experiences

  • Esteban M. Aucejo, Arizona State University
  • Jacob French*, New York University Stern School of Business
  • Basit Zafar, University of Michigan
14:30

Coffee break

15:00

Plenary Lecture 1

Francesca Molinari, Cornell University

16:00

Coffee break

16:15

Climate Change and Household Portfolio Choice: The Role of Taste and Expectations

  • Shifrah Aron-Dine, Stanford University
  • Johannes Beutel*, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Monika Piazzesi, Stanford University
  • Tania Babina, Columbia Business School
  • Martin Schneider, Stanford University
 

Estimating Individual Responses When Tomorrow Matters

  • Stéphane Bonhomme, University of Chicago
  • Angela Denis*, Banco de España
 

Perceived Ambiguity about COVID-Related Health Outcomes and Protective Health Behaviors among Young Adults

  • Adeline Delavande*, University of Technology Sydney
  • Emilia Del Bono, University of Essex
  • Angus Holford, University of Essex
17:45

Reception

18:45

Dinner

Friday, 14 October 2022
9:00

Betting on the House

  • Nicolas Bottan*, Cornell University
  • Ricardo Perez-Truglia, UC Berkeley Haas School of Business
 

Price Rigidities, Input Costs, and Inflation Expectations: Understanding Firms' Pricing Decisions from Microdata

  • Marianna Riggi, Bank of Italy
  • Alex Tagliabracci*, Bank of Italy
 

Reactions of Household Inflation Expectations to a Symmetric Inflation Target and High Inflation

  • Gabriele Galati, De Nederlandsche Bank
  • Richhild Moessner, Bank for International Settlements
  • Maarten van Rooij*, De Nederlandsche Bank
 

How to Limit the Spillover from the 2021 Inflation Surge to Inflation Expectations

  • Lena Dräger, Leibniz University
  • Michael J. Lamla, Leuphana University
  • Damjan Pfajfar*, Federal Reserve Board
11:00

Coffee break

11:30

Plenary Lecture 2

Orazio Attanasio, Yale University

12:30

Lunch

13:30

Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation

  • Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Edward S. Knotek*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • John Leer, Morning Consult
  • Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University
 

How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation?

  • Monica Jain, Bank of Canada
  • Olena Kostyshyna*, Bank of Canada
  • Xu Zhang, Bank of Canada
 

A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy

  • Rüdiger Bachmann, University of Notre Dame
  • Benjamin Born*, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
  • Olga Goldfayn-Frank, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Georgi Kocharkov, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Ralph Luetticke, University of Tübingen
  • Michael Weber, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
15:00
Closing remarks

Audiovisual notice: Images and video recordings may be published online

Please note that this programme may be subject to change without notice.

General information

Venue

Federal Reserve Bank of New York
33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045

Conference language

English

Organising committee

  • Olivier Armantier, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Maarten Dossche, European Central Bank
  • Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
  • Kim Huynh, Bank of Canada
  • Monica Jain, Bank of Canada
  • Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
  • Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Olena Kostyshyna, Bank of Canada
  • Jason Somerville, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York