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Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2022

Joint ECB and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Conference

Thursday, 29 and Friday, 30 September 2022
Cleveland, Ohio - hybrid event

The Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank (ECB) will host the conference. It will be held in person in Cleveland, Ohio, and virtually in a hybrid format. The conference will bring together top researchers from academia, central banks, and other policy institutions to present research findings related to inflation.

Loretta J. Mester, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and Philip R. Lane, Member of the ECB’s Executive Board, will provide remarks.

Registration

Registration for virtual attendance will be open through the conference.

The deadline for in-person registration was Friday, 16 September 2022.

Registration for virtual attendance

In-person attendance is very limited and requires pre-approval. If you are interested in attending in person, please register here and someone will contact you to let you know the status of your request.

Conference event page

Any questions related to this event may be addressed to inflation.conference@clev.frb.org.

Programme

Times are Eastern Daylight Time (CET-6)

* indicates the presenter

Thursday, 29 September
8:00
Registration
8:40

Welcome and opening remarks

Chair: Edward S. Knotek II, Senior Vice President and Associate Research Director, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Ellis W. Tallman, Executive Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

 

Session 1: Inflation and COVID-19

Chair: Christiane Nickel, European Central Bank

8:55

Understanding Post-Covid Inflation Dynamics

  • Jesper Lindé*, Sveriges Riksbank
  • Martin Harding, Bank of Canada
  • Mathias Trabandt, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main

Discussant: Pablo Cuba-Borda, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

9:50

The Scars of Supply Shocks

  • Martin Wolf*, University of St. Gallen
  • Luca Fornaro, Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Discussant: Albert Queralto, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

10:45
Break
11:05

The Inflationary Effects of Sectoral Reallocation

  • Sebastian Graves*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Francesco Ferrante, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Matteo Iacoviello, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Discussant: Michael Weber, University of Chicago Booth School of Business

12:00
Lunch break
13:00

Policy panel

Chair: Jean-Paul L’Huillier, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Moderator: Steve Liesman, Senior Economics Reporter, CNBC

Panellists:

  • Loretta J. Mester, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
 

Session 2: Inflation Expectations

Chair: Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

14:00

Monetary Policy and Anchored Expectations – An Endogenous Gain Learning Model

Laura V. Gáti*, European Central Bank

Discussant: Leonardo Melosi, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

14:55

Break

15:15

Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation

  • Ina Hajdini*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • John Leer, Morning Consult
  • Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University

Discussant: Maarten van Rooij, De Nederlandsche Bank

16:10

Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms' Perspectives on Inflation

  • Xuguang Simon Sheng*, American University
  • Brent Meyer, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Discussant: Olivier Coibion, University of Texas at Austin

17:05

Networking and Transition to Historic Lobby

17:30

Reception and Poster Session

In person only, no virtual option

Business Cycles when Consumers Learn by Shopping

Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza*, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Average Inflation Targeting: Time Inconsistency and Intentional Ambiguity

  • Chengcheng Jia*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Jing Cynthia Wu, University of Notre Dame and the National Bureau of Economic Research

Cost-Price Relationships in a Concentrated Economy

  • Gustavo Joaquim*, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
  • Falk Bräeuning, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
  • José Fillat, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation

  • Olena Kostyshyna*, Bank of Canada
  • Monica Jain, Bank of Canada
  • Xu Zhang, Bank of Canada

Imperfect Information, Heterogeneous Demand Shocks, and Inflation Dynamics

  • Tatsushi Okuda*, International Monetary Fund
  • Francesco Zanetti, University of Oxford
  • Tomohiro Tsuruga, International Monetary Fund

What Can We Learn from 60 Years of PCE Inflation Data

  • Raphael Schoenle*, Brandeis University
  • Dominic Smith, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Cross-Country Price and Inflation Dispersion: Retail Network or National Border?

  • Georg Strasser*, European Central Bank
  • Teresa Messner, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
  • Fabio Rumler, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
19:30

End of day 1

Friday, 30 September
8:00

Breakfast

 

Session 3: Micro Pricing

Chair: Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

8:30

The Granular Origins of Inflation and Its International Comovement

  • Santiago Ernesto Alvarez-Blaser*, University of Basel
  • Raphael Auer, Bank for International Settlements and the Center for Economic and Policy Research
  • Sarah Lein, University of Basel
  • Andrei Levchenko, University of Michigan

Discussant: Saroj Bhattarai, University of Texas at Austin

9:25

Supermarket Price Setting on the Two Sides of the Atlantic – Evidence from Scanner Data

  • Peter Karadi*, European Central Bank
  • Juergen Amann, University of Nottingham
  • Javier Sánchez Bachiller, European Central Bank
  • Pascal Seiler, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich
  • Jesse Wursten, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven

Discussant: Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada

10:20
Break
10:40

Pricing under Distress

  • Borağan Aruoba*, University of Maryland
  • Andrés Fernández, Banco Central de Chile
  • Daniel Guzman, UBC
  • Ernesto Pastén, Banco Central de Chile
  • Felipe Saffie, University of Virginia Darden School of Business

Discussant: Cosmin Ilut, Duke University

11:35

Lunch

 

Session 4: Empirical Applications

Chair: Peter Karadi, European Central Bank

12:35

Endogenous Uncertainty as Transmission Channel of Shocks to Inflation Expectations

  • Guido Ascari*, Università di Pavia and De Nederlandsche Bank
  • Stefano Fasani, Lancaster University
  • Jakob Grazzini, Università di Pavia
  • Lorenza Rossi, Lancaster University

Discussant: Pablo Guerron-Quintana, Boston College

13:30

Has the Phillips Curve Flattened and Why?

  • Yiru Wang*, University of Pittsburgh
  • Atsushi Inoue, Vanderbilt University
  • Barbara Rossi, Barcelona School of Economics

Discussant: Juan Herreño, University of California-San Diego

14:25

Undisclosed Material Inflation Risk

  • Yaniv Konchitchki*, University of California, Berkeley
  • Jin Xie, Peking Universit

Discussant: Francesco D’Acunto, Georgetown University

15:20

Closing remarks

This programme may be subject to change without notice.