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Eighth ECB Annual Research Conference 2023

21 and 22 September 2023

European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main

This is the eighth edition of the Annual Research Conference, the ECB’s flagship research event. The conference features research paper presentations by leading economists on topics relevant for a central bank. The highlight is the Jean Monnet Lecture, delivered this year by Roger B. Myerson.



Thursday, 21 September 2023

Welcoming remarks

Luc Laeven, European Central Bank

Welcoming remarks and Session I

Session I

Chair: Luc Laeven, European Central Bank


A monetary policy asset pricing model

Alp Simsek, Yale School of Management (together with Ricardo J. Caballero, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Discussant: Lars E.O. Svensson, Stockholm School of Economics

Inflation and GDP dynamics in production networks: A sufficient statistics approach

Hassan Afrouzi, Columbia University (together with Saroj Bhattarai, University of Texas at Austin)

Discussant: Klaus Adam, University of Mannheim


Coffee break


Session II

Chair: Oscar Arce, European Central Bank


Lending and monitoring: Big tech vs banks

Catherine Casamatta, Toulouse School of Economics (together with Matthieu Bouvard, Toulouse School of Economics, and Rui Xiong, Toulouse School of Management)

Discussant: David Martinez-Miera, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid


Invisible primes: Fintech lending with alternative data

Marco Di Maggio, Harvard Business School (together with Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara, Louisiana State University, and Don Carmichael, Upstart Operations)

Discussant: Tobias Berg, Goethe University Frankfurt




Session III

Chair: Isabel Vansteenkiste, European Central Bank


Adjustment dynamics during a strategic estimation task

Luminita Stevens, University of Maryland (together with Mel Win Khaw, Microsoft, and Michael Woodford, Columbia University)

Discussant: Martin Ellison, University of Oxford


Predictable forecast errors in full-information rational expectations models with regime shifts

Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (together with André Kurmann, Drexel University)

Discussant: Alexandre N. Kohlhas, University of Oxford


Coffee break


Session IV

Chair: Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

Jean Monnet Lecture

Postwar reconstruction assistance and local governments in Ukraine

Roger B. Myerson, University of Chicago (together with Oleksandra Keudel, Kyiv School of Economics)

Roger B. Myerson – concluding thoughts

End of day one

Friday, 22 September 2023

Session V

Chair: Simone Manganelli, European Central Bank


Innovation, industry equilibrium, and discount rates

Francesca Zucchi, European Central Bank (together with Maria Cecilia Bustamante, University of Maryland)

Discussant: Nicolas Serrano-Velarde, Bocconi University


Churn and stability: The remarkable heterogeneity of flows among employment, job search, and non-market activities in the U.S. population

Marianna Kudlyak, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (together with Robert E. Hall, Stanford University)

Discussant: Jane Olmstead-Rumsey, London School of Economics


Coffee break


Session VI

Chair: Michael Ehrmann, European Central Bank


Why does the yield curve predict GDP growth? The role of banks

Camelia Minoiu, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (together with Andres Schneider, and Min Wei, both Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

Discussant: Glenn Schepens, European Central Bank


The safety net: Central bank balance sheets and financial crises, 1587-2020

Moritz Schularick, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (together with Niall Ferguson, Hoover Institution, Martin Kornejew, University of Bonn, and Paul Schmelzing, Boston College)

Discussant: Giorgio Primiceri, Northwestern University




End of conference

This programme may be subject to change without notice.

Time allocation: 25 minutes for each paper presenter, 15 minutes for each discussant, 10 minutes for a general discussion.

Audiovisual notice: The entire event will be live streamed, recorded and published on the ECB’s website shortly after the conference. Journalists will be present and will report on the event.

General information


European Central Bank
Main Building
Press Room (C5.01)
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main

Conference language



Organising committee

Luc Laeven, Laura Gati, Bartosz Maćkowiak, Kalin Nikolov, Melina Papoutsi, Alexander Popov (all European Central Bank)

Contact persons