3 February 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 73 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 4 and 12 January 2023, aggregate activity had broadly stagnated or contracted mildly in the fourth quarter of 2022, but with notable differences across sectors. The short-term outlook for activity remained subdued with much uncertainty, but there was increased hope of a pick-up in 2023. Selling prices continued to increase in aggregate, but at a moderating pace and with more variability across sectors and a less certain outlook. Wage growth was now the predominant cost concern, although wage expectations remained broadly unchanged from the previous survey round. Despite greater wage cost pressure and very high uncertainty regarding the future path of energy prices, most contacts expected lower price growth in 2023 than in 2022.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
2 February 2023
PRESS RELEASE
2 February 2023
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
2 February 2023
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 2 February 2023
2 February 2023
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
2 February 2023
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
2 February 2023
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
2 February 2023
PRESS RELEASE
31 January 2023
PRESS RELEASE
31 January 2023
THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
24 January 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andreas Kröner, Jan Mallien and Frank Wiebe
17 January 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Wolf on 12 January 2023
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
- Abstract
- This box examines the information that the euro area bank lending survey (BLS) provides on future growth in loans to firms and households for house purchase in the euro area. The survey has proved to be invaluable for assessing the passthrough of monetary policy to borrowers via banks, for obtaining early information on turning points in lending conditions, and for understanding changes in loan demand and lending conditions during exceptional periods, such as the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine. First, simple cross-correlations reveal a strong relation between BLS indicators and actual loan growth several quarters ahead. Second, BLS indicators help improve loan forecasts. In terms of loans to firms, the credit standards and loan demand reported in the BLS provide additional information that can be used when forecasting lending, while for housing loans, forecasts are improved by taking into account reported demand in particular. Finally, bank-level data confirm that BLS responses also reveal information on loan developments at the individual bank level. Overall, recent developments regarding BLS credit standards and loan demand point to a deceleration of growth in loans to firms and households in the coming quarters.
- JEL Code
- E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
- Abstract
- This box describes the liquidity conditions and the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth maintenance periods of 2022, from 27 July to 1 November.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
- Abstract
- This box looks at the link between firms’ financing conditions and the euro area business cycle. For information on financing conditions of firms, the box uses results from the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE). Monetary policy is shown to affect changes in firms’ financing gaps – the difference between the change in demand for and the change in the availability of external financing – as well as their expectations about future availability of finance. At the current juncture, firms report increasing financing gaps and a deterioration in their expectations about the availability of finance in the period ahead. Such responses from firms are associated with stronger concerns about finance at the firm level. Moreover, financing conditions matter for the aggregate business cycle: increasing financing gaps and lower expected availability of finance foreshadow lower GDP growth.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
- Abstract
- On 1 January 2023 Croatia adopted the euro and became the 20th member of the euro area. The Croatian economy is expected to benefit from the elimination of currency risk, as well as lower transaction and borrowing costs. After its accession to the EU in 2013, Croatia made significant progress in addressing macroeconomic imbalances and achieving convergence towards the euro area. It now needs to continue with those reform efforts in order to fully reap the benefits of the euro and to allow adjustment mechanisms to operate efficiently within the enlarged currency area.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
- Abstract
- This article provides an initial review of the ECB’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), with a focus on its objectives, implementation, and effectiveness. The ECB launched the PEPP in March 2020 in response to the extraordinary economic and financial shock brought about by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Implementation of the programme was flexible, spreading purchases over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions. The PEPP was instrumental in supporting market functioning and the transmission of the monetary policy stance, and thus in countering pandemic-related risks to price stability.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
11 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
- Abstract
- This box examines the impact of the recent increase in energy prices on real consumer spending in the euro area. The empirical framework relies on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model and identifies adverse energy supply shocks that lead to a deterioration in the terms of trade, as captured by the ratio between the GDP deflator and the private consumption deflator, and a decline in real consumer spending. It finds that energy supply shocks have significantly weighed on total private consumption in recent quarters, with durable goods consumption being particularly affected.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
10 January 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the International Symposium on Central Bank Independence, Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm
10 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
- Abstract
- Headline inflation has increased sharply in the euro area and in the United States since the start of 2021. But there are major differences between inflation developments in these two economies. In particular, energy inflation has been much higher in the euro area – leading to higher headline inflation than in the United States in recent months. As the euro area is significantly more dependent on energy imports than the United States, the rise in energy prices constitutes a strong adverse terms-of-trade shock to euro area income. Amid the resulting relatively slower recovery from the pandemic in the euro area, the contribution of demand to core inflation has increased more gradually and later in the euro area than in the United States. In addition, the short-term outlook for economic growth is weaker in the euro area than in the United States and the US labour market is tighter, implying a relatively smaller impetus from economic activity and the labour market to inflation in the euro area. Looking ahead, professional forecasters expect inflation to be somewhat more persistent in the United States than in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
N10 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→General, International, or Comparative
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
9 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
- Abstract
- This box examines cross-country developments in compensation per employee since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The pandemic has strongly affected wage developments across euro area countries, reflecting standard cyclical and structural determinants as well as novel factors, such as differences in the size and impact of the shock or the specificities of national job retention schemes.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
9 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
- Abstract
- This article discusses wage developments and the main factors that have influenced them since the start of the pandemic. First, it reviews developments in a broad range of wage measures for the euro area and discusses their current usefulness as signals of wage pressures. In this context, it illustrates how the growth of compensation per employee was adjusted for the impact of job retention schemes. Second, the article looks at how wage developments have differed across sectors, reflecting the heterogeneous impact of the pandemic shock. Finally, it discusses the impact of inflation on purchasing power of wage incomes and real wage costs in the euro area by examining developments in real consumer and producer wages for the economy as a whole and in its main sectors.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
J38 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Public Policy
6 January 2023
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, in panel discussion “Global Economic Outlook” organised by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) at 2023 ASSA Annual Meeting, New Orleans
27 December 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted on 16 December 2022
24 December 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gerald Braunberger and Christian Siedenbiedel on 16 December 2022
22 December 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Éric Albert on 15 December and published on 22 December
15 December 2022
PRESS RELEASE
15 December 2022
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 15 December 2022
15 December 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
15 December 2022
PODCAST
15 December 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
15 December 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
19 January 2023
MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
7 December 2022
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) annual conference on “Global Perspective 2023”
6 December 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Francesco Ninfole
28 November 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
28 November 2022
SPEECH
28 November 2022
SPEECH
24 November 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference
21 November 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Luke Heighton on 16 November 2022
18 November 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the European Banking Congress
16 November 2022
PRESS RELEASE
16 November 2022
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
15 November 2022
SPEECH
Dinner speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, on the occasion of the 25th Euro Finance Week, Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main
14 November 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 25th Frankfurt Euro Finance Week
14 November 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the CEPR-EABCN conference on “Finding the Gap: Output Gap Measurement in the Euro Area” held at the European University Institute
10 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
- Abstract
- This box provides an analysis of recent developments in trade and financial linkages between the euro area and Russia as recorded in the euro area balance of payments. The euro area current account balance vis-à-vis Russia turned from a small surplus into a deficit of 0.5% of euro area GDP between the second quarter of 2021 and the second quarter of this year, thus contributing significantly to the reduction in the euro area’s current account surplus over the same period. The bilateral current account deficit vis-à-vis Russia increased on account of the rising value of nominal imports, largely of energy products, and lower exports driven by EU sanctions. Euro area financial exposures to Russia before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were relatively limited, with foreign direct investment (FDI) being the most important component. Since the start of the war euro area holdings of Russian assets have declined, while liabilities vis-à-vis Russia have increased due to the impact of EU sanctions.
- JEL Code
- F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
10 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
- Abstract
- Carry-over effects describe how much the average growth rate in a given period is affected by developments in the preceding period. The most common application is to quantify how much annual average GDP growth is affected by quarterly developments in the previous year. This box applies this concept to quarterly changes in GDP by interpolating quarterly GDP into monthly observations using monthly indicators. In selecting the appropriate indicator variables, a production perspective is adopted by using industrial production, construction production and an indicator for services production. This sectoral approach is particularly useful in the current environment, given the differences in how sectors are being affected by the sharp and sudden fluctuations in economic conditions.
- JEL Code
- E00 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→General
O10 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→General
10 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
- Abstract
- Euro area motor vehicle output fell by approximately one-third between June 2018 and July 2022. This can be explained by factors associated with the more stringent emissions tests implemented in the EU, the EU regulation on carbon dioxide emissions, the transition towards electric vehicles, supply chain disruptions, the rise in energy costs and, more recently, the increasing macroeconomic uncertainty related to the war in Ukraine. Euro area car exports also decreased at the same time. The transition to greener motor vehicles and the future evolution of supply bottlenecks are key factors shaping the outlook for euro area car production and exports in the coming years.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
L62 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Manufacturing→Automobiles, Other Transportation Equipment
9 November 2022
SPEECH
Panel contribution by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Euro-Mediterranean Economists Association COP27 side event on “Investing in and financing the acceleration of sustainable development in a net zero scenario” in Sharm El-Sheikh
9 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
- Abstract
- The strong increase in euro area HICP inflation over the past 18 months has placed additional emphasis on monitoring and understanding the behaviour of consumers’ inflation expectations. Data from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey show that, after HICP inflation rose above 2% in July 2021, consumers’ inflation perceptions and expectations started to move upwards too. However, this rise in shorter-term (one-year ahead) inflation expectations was much more pronounced than that of more medium-term (three-years ahead) expectations and the term structure of consumers’ inflation expectations remained strongly downward sloping. There is some evidence that the responsiveness of inflation expectations to inflation perceptions has increased recently, but it remains noticeably lower for medium-term inflation expectations. Consumers’ uncertainty surrounding their inflation expectations has also grown. Overall, the upward movement in expectations, the increase in uncertainty surrounding them and rising sensitivity of medium-term expectations to perceived current inflation all call for continued close monitoring and analysis.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
9 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
- Abstract
- This box examines the impact of the recent rise in inflation on low-income households in the euro area. Low-income households face significantly higher effective inflation rates than high-income households, due to a different composition of their consumption basket. Moreover, they are more liquidity-constrained and have less room to buffer sharp increases in their cost of living. Survey-based evidence shows that low-income households perceive the recent government measures aimed at easing the burden of higher energy prices as less adequate than high-income households do. This could suggest that there is potential for government support measures to be more targeted towards low-income households.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
8 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
- Abstract
- This article surveys the literature on consumption risk sharing, focusing on the euro area but also presenting evidence for individual countries, including the United States. The literature finds that risk sharing is weaker in the euro area than between regions or federal states in the individual countries examined. However, our analysis of the response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis indicates that risk sharing in the euro area has been more resilient in this period than it was during the global financial crisis of 2008-10. It suggests that the provision of timely large-scale policy support reduced the risk of cross-border financial flows coming to a sudden halt, thus preventing a severe disruption of private risk sharing. This experience speaks in favour of establishing a common public risk-sharing mechanism in the euro area and completing the banking union and capital markets union. At the same time, the right balance must be found between additional, centralised euro area stabilisation and risk-sharing instruments and credible enforcement of fiscal rules to anchor market expectations of sound public finances.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
8 November 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Johanna Treeck on 3 November 2022
7 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
- Abstract
- This Box provides an assessment of trends in European trade in goods and the tourism sector in 2022 using Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI). For goods trade, the analysis shows that bottlenecks in the international supply chain tend to precede upward pressures on import prices for intermediate goods. These pressures are now slowly easing as export demand weakens and supply chains adjust. For services, an earlier surge in bookings in the tourism sector has led to higher prices in that sector. Higher input prices in the tourism and recreation sector, waning pent-up demand for travel, falling real incomes and rising uncertainty may start to dampen demand for European tourism and recreation trade in services in the coming months.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
L83 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Services→Sports, Gambling, Restaurants, Recreation, Tourism
4 November 2022
SPEECH
Lecture by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, organised by Eesti Pank and dedicated to Professor Ragnar Nurkse
4 November 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at Energy Prospectives event organised by IESE Business School and Naturgy Foundation
3 November 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Money Market Conference
1 November 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Žanete Hāka
31 October 2022
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Danmarks Nationalbank conference marking the 40th anniversary of the Danish fixed exchange rate regime
28 October 2022
PRESS RELEASE
28 October 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 69 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 26 September and 6 October 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity had broadly stagnated in the third quarter of this year. Parts of the manufacturing sector had suffered declining sales and production, while in others, production growth was sustained by long order books and easing supply constraints. Services activity was more resilient, supported by digitalisation and tourism. The outlook was for a deterioration in activity in the fourth quarter. Price dynamics remained very buoyant in the third quarter, not least given energy cost pressures. However, an increasing number of firms did say that prices in their sector were either at, or nearing, a peak. Wage pressures continued to build and were increasingly becoming an additional cost concern for many firms.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
27 October 2022
PRESS RELEASE
27 October 2022
OTHER PUBLICATION
27 October 2022
OTHER PUBLICATION
27 October 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
27 October 2022
PRESS RELEASE
27 October 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
27 October 2022
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 27 October 2022
27 October 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
27 October 2022
PODCAST
27 October 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
27 October 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
27 October 2022
PRESS RELEASE
27 October 2022
PRESS RELEASE
24 November 2022
MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
19 October 2022
THE ECB BLOG
The ECB Blog investigates how change in the policy rate affects wages very differently depending on characteristics of employees and firms, such as firms’ size and their access to credit. Results show that the effects are symmetric during times of easing and tightening.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
14 October 2022
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-sixth meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
14 October 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Dalius Simenas on 10 October 2022
11 October 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the SUERF, CGEG|COLUMBIA|SIPA, EIB, SOCIÉTÉ GÉNÉRALE conference on “EU and US Perspectives: New Directions for Economic Policy”
10 October 2022
PRESS RELEASE
7 October 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
- Abstract
- In this box we decompose components of HICP excluding energy and food inflation into those driven predominantly by demand and those driven predominantly by supply shocks. This approach to monitoring inflation was originally developed for the United States. When adapted to the euro area it reveals that both supply and demand factors have contributed strongly to the increase in HICPX inflation since the second half of 2021. Supply factors were dominant at the beginning of the upturn in inflation in the second half of 2021, but demand factors have gradually increased in importance and contributed to a similar extent as supply factors to HICPX inflation over recent months. In recent months, the main contribution to non-energy industrial goods (NEIG) inflation has come from components predominantly driven by supply shocks, whereas services inflation has stemmed more from components predominantly driven by demand.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
30 September 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on the “Fight against inflation” at the IV Edition Foro La Toja
29 September 2022
SPEECH
Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at a panel at the conference “Future of Central Banking” organised by Lietuvos bankas and the Bank for International Settlements
28 September 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the European Parliament conference on “Greening monetary policy in times of soaring inflation”
26 September 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
22 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
- Abstract
- In-house credit assessment systems (ICASs) of euro area national central banks are an important source of credit risk assessments for credit claims from non-financial corporates. These credit claims can be pledged as collateral in monetary policy operations. Climate change and the transition to a greener economy can affect the growth, financial performance, market position and business model of a company, and hence its creditworthiness. Therefore, as part of the ECB’s action plan for including climate change considerations in monetary policy implementation, the Governing Council has agreed a set of common minimum standards on incorporating these risks in ICAS rating processes. Assessments of climate change risks will mainly focus on the companies most affected and those which pose the highest risk to the Eurosystem. The analysis will be performed at firm level whenever sufficient data is available, using state-of-the-art methods and metrics. All ICASs will comply with the common minimum standards from end-2024 onwards.
- JEL Code
- G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
22 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
- Abstract
- This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2022 from 20 April to 26 July.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
22 September 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Florian Schmidt on 15 September 2022
21 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
- Abstract
- Mitigating climate change requires sustained and multipronged policy efforts, as a matter of urgency. Many initiatives to mitigate climate change are directly linked to fiscal policy, mainly through public spending or taxation. This article provides an overview of existing, required and expected fiscal climate policy efforts to advance the green transition in the euro area, focusing on carbon pricing and green public investment. It also looks at the distributional consequences of carbon pricing.
- JEL Code
- H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
H30 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→General
Q52 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Pollution Control Adoption Costs, Distributional Effects, Employment Effects
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
20 September 2022
SPEECH
Karl Otto Pöhl Lecture by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, organised by Frankfurter Gesellschaft für Handel, Industrie und Wissenschaft
20 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
- Abstract
- The strong rise in inflation has renewed attention on longer-term inflation expectations. The distribution of individual longer-term inflation expectations from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters has recently recentred around 2%, although some respondents have lately raised their inflation expectations clearly above 2%. Some commentators have argued that movements in the upper “tails” of the inflation expectations’ distribution might signal a possible de-anchoring of expectations. This box takes a closer look at recent movements in long-term inflation expectations, especially of those forecasters currently in the upper tail of the distribution. We find that (a) historically, this tail group's longer-term inflation expectations have been higher, more volatile and more sensitive to realised inflation than the expectations of the rest of respondents, (b) respondents in this tail group perceive the current inflation spike to be more persistent, and (c) the evidence suggests that their expectations have not led movements in those of the rest of the professional forecasters.
- JEL Code
- E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
20 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
- Abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a temporary decrease in the labour market activity of older workers in the euro area. Our analysis finds that a part of the decrease was driven by a pandemic-induced shift in the retirement decisions of older workers, affecting around 175,000 people. This represents 0.5% of the labour force aged 55-74 retiring earlier than planned due to the pandemic. The heightened economic uncertainty and health risks stemming from the pandemic persuaded some older workers either to bide their time before returning to work or to retire early. Early retirement was most pronounced for workers in poorer health, stressing the growing importance of health risks for labour market developments.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J14 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of the Elderly, Economics of the Handicapped, Non-Labor Market Discrimination
J26 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Retirement, Retirement Policies
19 September 2022
PRESS RELEASE
19 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
- Abstract
- Against a background of rising mortgage rates, this box investigates the impact of changes in mortgage rates on euro area house prices and housing investment through linear and non-linear local projections. The model evidence suggests that housing market dynamics are very sensitive to mortgage rates, especially in a low interest rate environment. At the current juncture, this points to a significant risk of a marked slowdown of the euro area housing market. Yet, pandemic-induced shifts in housing preferences, which are not captured by the models, could counteract higher mortgage rates and could potentially increase uncertainty surrounding the housing outlook.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
16 September 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by João Silvestre on 9 September
15 September 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the CIRSF (Research Centre on Regulation and Supervision of the Financial Sector) Annual International Conference 2022 “The future of the EU financial system in a new geo-economic context”
14 September 2022
SPEECH
Opening remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Meeting of the Money Market Contact Group
14 September 2022
THE ECB BLOG
Women and men shop differently and have different perceptions of prices and inflation. This ECB Blog post examines how inflation expectations are formed and revised across gender and why that matters for central banks.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J16 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Gender, Non-labor Discrimination
28 July 2022
THE ECB BLOG
24 August 2022
THE ECB BLOG
12 September 2022
SPEECH
Welcome address by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the seventh ECB Annual Research Conference
8 September 2022
PRESS RELEASE
8 September 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
8 September 2022
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 8 September 2022
8 September 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
8 September 2022
PODCAST
8 September 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
8 September 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
8 September 2022
PRESS RELEASE
6 October 2022
MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
29 August 2022
SPEECH
Remarks for high-level panel “High Inflation and Other Challenges for Monetary Policy” by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Annual Meeting 2022 of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA), Barcelona
27 August 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
24 August 2022
THE ECB BLOG
Communication with the general public matters for monetary policy. Although it is hard for central banks to reach out to the wider public, a recent study shows that explaining the inflation target and the ECB strategy to consumers can enhance its credibility.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
13 October 2022
THE ECB BLOG
10 August 2022
THE ECB BLOG
14 September 2022
THE ECB BLOG
18 August 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balazs Koranyi and Frank Siebelt on 16 August 2022
10 August 2022
THE ECB BLOG
As part of our monetary policy strategy review we adopted a new symmetric 2% inflation target. One year on, we examine how the strategy review has helped anchor financial analysts’ inflation expectations. We also show that recent policy normalisation is grounded in our strategy.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
e31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
24 August 2022
THE ECB BLOG
3 August 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
- Abstract
- This box reviews wage share dynamics and potential second-round effects on inflation at times of energy price increases. Compared to a well-known episode with some similar features – the OPEC oil embargo in October 1973 – recent energy price increases have so far had limited implications for labour income and the GDP deflator. This contained impact reflects the relatively mild terms-of-trade loss and subdued real wage dynamics today compared to the 1970s. However, the experience in the United States in both episodes shows that significant increases in the GDP deflator may arise even in the presence of weak real wage growth. A model-based analysis finds that the transmission of energy price increases to inflation, and in particular the emergence of second-round effects, has been more limited or even absent since the start of monetary union. Nevertheless, high and persistent inflation increases the risk of second-round effects materialising via higher wages and profit margins.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E25 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
3 August 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
- Abstract
- This article takes stock of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis on business investment dynamics in the euro area and presents evidence on the main drivers of investment, as well as the opportunities, challenges and risks for its recovery, also in investment with respect to digitalisation and greening needs. Euro area business investment fell sharply in the first half of 2020. The considerable rebound and subsequent investment dynamics have been heterogenous across countries and types of investment, and the rebound has been overall somewhat weaker in the euro area than in the United States. While the recovery has been helped by substantial support from monetary and fiscal policy, headwinds such as increased uncertainty, commodity price rises and lingering supply bottlenecks risk delaying investment decisions and leading companies to further increase savings. Meanwhile, spending on further digitalising and “greening” the economy, as reflected in available investment data, has accelerated throughout the pandemic. Investment opportunities in these areas are considerable, and so are the challenges, which are mainly related to financing, regulation and incentives.
- JEL Code
- D25 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
Q55 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Technological Innovation
1 August 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
- Abstract
- Oil prices spiked in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and have been volatile ever since. As the current increase in oil prices mainly reflects supply-side factors, it could also affect potential output. This box uses several approaches to assess the channels through which oil price hikes have an impact on potential output and to estimate the possible magnitude of the impact of the current shock. The quantitative estimates proposed should be regarded with caution given the current volatility in the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil and the uncertainty surrounding the amplitude of the shock, which will depend on how the conflict develops.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
1 August 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
- Abstract
- This box uses the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) to assess euro area household saving behaviour since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Most respondents reported that during the pandemic they were not able to increase their savings. Those that were able to do so reported that COVID-19-related restrictions/fear of infection and precautionary motives were the most important reasons for increasing their savings. In March 2021 the bulk of the savings accumulated during the pandemic were not expected to be spent until at least the spring of 2022. Most respondents expected to return to, but not exceed, their pre-COVID-19 levels of consumption as soon as pandemic restrictions were relaxed, suggesting limited scope for widespread pent-up demand during the recovery. Pandemic-related savings were concentrated among higher-income households with a relatively low exposure to energy-intensive expenditure. This limits the extent to which these savings are able to shield the ongoing recovery of consumption from the adverse impact of the recent surge in energy prices.
- JEL Code
- D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
29 July 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Tõnis Oja on 25 July
28 July 2022
THE ECB BLOG
Non-immigrants in the euro area are on average better off than immigrants in terms of wages and wealth. These differences can cause immigrants to react differently to economic shocks and changing financial conditions. As economic inequality matters for monetary policy transmission, the ECB Blog takes a closer look.
19 October 2022
THE ECB BLOG
14 September 2022
THE ECB BLOG
23 July 2022
THE ECB BLOG
Raising interest rates is a landmark moment on our journey towards lower inflation, writes President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog.
22 July 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 71 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 20 and 29 June 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity developed positively in the second quarter of the year. Despite clear signs of weakening demand in some sectors, reflecting the uncertainty created by the war in Ukraine and rising inflation, the recovery in sectors benefiting from the relaxation of pandemic-related restrictions was particularly strong and generally exceeded expectations. Overall, contacts expected activity growth to slow in the coming months, with widespread uncertainty and concern surrounding the outlook after the summer. The frequency and magnitude of selling price increases remained high, as substantial increases in costs (particularly from energy and transport) were passed through the value chain. Most contacts anticipated a similar trend in selling price increases in the third quarter, but some were more hesitant in view of faltering demand, pointing to a potential for some moderation in the overall rate of increase.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
21 July 2022
PRESS RELEASE
21 July 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
21 July 2022
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 21 July 2022
21 July 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
21 July 2022
PODCAST
21 July 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
21 July 2022
PRESS RELEASE
21 July 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
25 August 2022
MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
19 July 2022
PRESS RELEASE
19 July 2022
THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
18 July 2022
PRESS RELEASE
18 July 2022
OTHER PUBLICATION
8 July 2022
THE ECB BLOG
The ECB is reducing the carbon footprint in its portfolio and pushing banks to better manage climate risks. Within our mandate, we incorporate climate change considerations into our monetary policy and banking supervision, say Frank Elderson and Isabel Schnabel.
7 July 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
- Abstract
- This box analyses the selling price expectations among euro area firms based on the results from the most recent Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area. To better understand the price-setting behaviour of firms in a context of high inflationary pressures, the April 2022 Survey included additional questions on the selling price expectations of firms and factors influencing their pricing decisions. By providing the perspective of firms, this box sheds light on the current inflation outlook.
- JEL Code
- C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
L11 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Production, Pricing, and Market Structure, Size Distribution of Firms
4 July 2022
SPEECH
Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Frankfurt Euro Finance Summit
1 July 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the European Parliament’s Innovation Day “The EU in the world created by the Ukraine war”
28 June 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2022 on “Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world” in Sintra, Portugal
23 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
- Abstract
- The debt financing structure of euro area firms has broadened since the introduction of the euro. While bank loans still account for a major share of corporate debt, euro area firms have increasingly resorted to bond financing over the past decade and a half. Empirical evidence suggests that this shift in firms’ debt financing structures affects the transmission of shocks to the euro area economy. While corporate bonds and loans typically respond in a similar procyclical manner to exogenous changes in business investment, bond issuance tends to mildly cushion the credit contraction resulting from adverse supply shocks. The evidence also indicates that a higher share of bond financing strengthens the transmission of monetary policy measures that primarily operate via longer-term yields, whereas short-term rate changes tend to exert stronger real effects in economies that are more dependent on loans. From a broader perspective, the higher share of bond financing renders euro area firms more resilient against crises concentrated in the banking sector. However, this benefit may be counteracted by a rising presence of more vulnerable firms in the corporate bond market and by the structural vulnerabilities of non-bank financial intermediaries, which are significant investors in that market.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
23 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
- Abstract
- This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the first and second maintenance periods of 2022 from 9 February to 19 April 2022.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
23 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
- Abstract
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has hit economic confidence and increased uncertainty in the euro area. This box illustrates how the increased uncertainty is being transmitted to the economy, adopting a two-step approach. In the first step, the uncertainty shock is identified using a structural vector autoregression model with sign and narrative restrictions. In the second step, the identified shock is used to compute losses in domestic demand, employing local projection methods. The box shows that the uncertainty shock witnessed in the period to April will have a material adverse impact on domestic demand, estimated to be larger for business investment than for consumption. Across sectors, the effect is estimated to be larger for manufacturing than for services and larger for durable goods than for non‑durables.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
22 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
- Abstract
- This box assesses the extent to which current private sector forecasts point to expectations of stagflation in the euro area reminiscent of the stagflation episode in the 1970s. Stagflation refers to a protracted period of flat or negative growth combined with high or increasing inflation, as witnessed in the main advanced economies in the 1970s. Private forecasters do not currently envisage a period of stagflation for the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
N14 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→Europe: 1913?
21 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
- Abstract
- Record-high energy price increases at the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022 put significant pressures on the purchasing power of consumers. These increases followed a marked decline in energy prices at the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. While the initial increase in energy prices from the summer of 2020 was mainly driven by the recovery in energy demand following the easing of lockdown measures after the first wave of the pandemic, the subsequent price rally during 2021 was also significantly affected by supply-side issues. This development was aggravated in early 2022 by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The increase in European gas prices since the summer of 2021 has been particularly sharp, reflecting a combination of supply and demand factors that left European gas inventories at historically low levels ahead of the winter season and the gas market vulnerable to supply and demand uncertainty, including from escalating geopolitical tensions. As a result, consumer gas prices and consumer electricity prices (driven by gas prices) played an increasingly important role in developments in HICP energy and were also accompanied by unprecedented cross-country heterogeneity in energy price developments.
- JEL Code
- Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
L90 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities→General
21 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
- Abstract
- This box examines recent developments in euro area food inflation and the channels through which it is being affected by the Russia-Ukraine war. Euro area HICP food inflation reached a historical high in April 2022. The rise has been driven primarily by increasing global energy and food commodity prices since the second half of 2021. The war and its repercussions are hindering the import of energy and food commodities in the euro area and contributing to further increases in global prices. While the European Union is mostly self-sufficient in terms of agricultural products, producing more than it consumes, this is exacerbating already existing pressures in euro area food markets.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
21 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
- Abstract
- This box provides an overview of the impact that the war in Ukraine has had on euro area energy markets. Energy commodity and electricity prices spiked in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and have been highly volatile ever since. Russia supplies a considerable amount of energy to the euro area, particularly gas. The European Union introduced economic sanctions targeting the Russian energy industry, most notably the coal and oil sectors, while steps are also being taken towards becoming independent of Russian gas. After the initial price spikes, energy commodity prices moderated, owing partly to the EU’s sanctions and also helped by other policy initiatives such as historically large releases of strategic oil reserves. Higher energy commodity prices intensified the pressure on euro area consumer prices in February and March 2022, while some of this pressure was alleviated in April and May as a result of government measures.
- JEL Code
- Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
N44 : Economic History→Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation→Europe: 1913?
20 June 2022
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Society of Professional Economists Annual Dinner
20 June 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
20 June 2022
SPEECH
20 June 2022
SPEECH
20 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
- Abstract
- The influx of Ukrainian refugees is expected to lead to a gradual increase in the size of the euro area labour force. Back-of-an-envelope median estimates suggest that the influx of Ukrainian refugees could boost the euro area labour force by between 0.2% and 0.8% in the medium term, depending on the duration and the severity of the war. This would result in the labour force gaining between 0.3 and 1.3 million additional workers. However, labour market rigidities and other labour market frictions may slow down the integration process, with the result that Ukrainian refugees are likely to enter the labour force very gradually.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J15 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants, Non-labor Discrimination
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J61 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Geographic Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers
16 June 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Dein Spiegel on 19 May 2022
16 June 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Maria Vasileiou
15 June 2022
PRESS RELEASE
14 June 2022
SPEECH
Commencement speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to the graduates of the Master Program in Money, Banking, Finance and Insurance of the Panthéon-Sorbonne University
9 June 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
9 June 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
7 July 2022
MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
30 May 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Nuño Rodrigo and Laura Salces on 25 May 2022
25 May 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a policy lecture hosted by the SAFE Policy Center at Goethe University and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
23 May 2022
THE ECB BLOG
As the expected date of interest rate lift-off draws closer, it gets more important to clarify the path of policy normalisation ahead of us – especially given the complex environment that monetary policy in the euro area is facing, says President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog.
11 May 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a conference organised by the Österreichische Vereinigung für Finanzanalyse und Asset Management
11 May 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the international conference to mark the 30th anniversary of Banka Slovenije
7 May 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Miha Jenko and published on 7 May 2022
5 May 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Bruegel
5 May 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Marco Zatterin
3 May 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jan Mallien and Frank Wiebe on 29 April 2022
1 May 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Adolfo Lorente and Manu Álvarez on 26 April
28 April 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022
- Abstract
- Minimum wages are prevalent in many euro area countries. Since 2008 minimum wages in the euro area have tended, on average, to grow at a similar pace to wages and salaries per employee. However, minimum wage growth can also significantly deviate from growth in wages and salaries in some years. Minimum wages are expected to grow at a substantially stronger pace than wages and salaries in many euro area countries in 2022 and 2023 – leading to a stronger than usual upward impact of minimum wages on euro area wage growth while the absolute direct mechanical impact on wage growth in the euro area is likely to remain contained.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
28 April 2022
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament
28 April 2022
ANNUAL REPORT
27 April 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, International Association for Official Statistics (IAOS) Conference, Kraków
26 April 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022
- Abstract
- The price of emissions allowances traded on the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) has risen from below €10 per metric tonne of carbon to above €90 since the beginning of 2018. This box outlines the main reasons behind this increase and examines whether speculative activity may have played a significant role. It concludes that, at present, tangible evidence for a marked increase in speculative activity related to potential changes in market structure appears scarce. Furthermore, a speculation index suggests that, while speculation appears to have increased slightly since early 2019, it remains relatively moderate and well below readings during earlier phases of the ETS.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
21 April 2022
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-fifth meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
21 April 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow and Alessandra Migliaccio on 20 April 2022
14 April 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 67 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 20 and 30 March 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity developed positively in the first months of the year, despite ongoing supply constraints as well as cost and price pressures. The war in Ukraine added further disruption to businesses, mainly in the form of further price increases for energy and raw materials, much of which would be passed through to selling prices, as well as shortages resulting in reduced production in some sectors. Overall, contacts expected growth to slow in the coming months, as higher inflation would reduce disposable income and final consumer demand, while uncertainty and downside risks were substantial.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
14 April 2022
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 14 April 2022
14 April 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
14 April 2022
PODCAST
14 April 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
14 April 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
12 April 2022
PRESS RELEASE
12 April 2022
THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
8 April 2022
SPEECH
Opening speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the IESE Business School Banking Initiative Conference on Technology and Finance
6 April 2022
SPEECH
Lectio Magistralis by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, on the occasion of the conferral of an honorary degree in Law by the University of Cassino and Southern Lazio
2 April 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a workshop organised by the European House – Ambrosetti on “The Agenda for Europe: Macroeconomic and Structural Policy Challenges”
1 April 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Annette Weisbach
31 March 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the International Macroeconomics Chair Banque de France – Paris School of Economics
28 March 2022
PRESS RELEASE
24 March 2022
PRESS RELEASE
24 March 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, The Institute of International & European Affairs webinar
24 March 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022
- Abstract
- This box analyses the development of the saving ratios of non-financial corporations in the euro area and in the largest euro area countries during the coronavirus pandemic. It shows that euro area corporate saving ratios came under pressure at the start of the pandemic but have reached record highs in recent quarters. Business saving has outpaced investment, resulting in historically high net lending of non-financial corporations. Given the importance of savings as an internal source of finance for investment and the high levels of the saving-to-investment ratio and net lending position of non-financial corporations, the prospects for business investment currently look positive from an internal funding perspective.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
23 March 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022
- Abstract
- Notwithstanding the recent pick-up in corporate spreads in some markets, global corporate bond prices stand close to historical highs amid relatively low credit risk premia, particularly in lower-rated segments. At the same time, the COVID‑19 pandemic has increased the vulnerability and indebtedness of many firms around the world, with corporate credit ratings remaining below pre‑pandemic levels and some firms exhibiting relatively weak profitability. The model-based valuation analysis presented in this box suggests that the strong overall decline in global corporate bond spreads since the peak of the pandemic has been only partly driven by the market’s assessment of improving credit quality and could, to a large extent, be related to the strength of investors’ risk appetite. Based on analysis of bond-level valuations in the US corporate market, the box also shows that market-wide risk-off shocks have the potential to significantly increase corporate spreads and expected default probabilities, particularly for the weakest firms.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
22 March 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022
- Abstract
- In January 2022, Eurostat began publishing official euro area aggregates as part of its Owner-Occupied Housing Price Index (OOHPI). This box looks at the various sub-components of that index, offering a cross-country perspective and analysing their correlation with other price indicators at euro area level.
- JEL Code
- C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
20 March 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Frank Wiebe and Jan Mallien on 14 March
17 March 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on “Monetary Policy and Climate Change” at The ECB and its Watchers XXII Conference
17 March 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at “The ECB and Its Watchers XXII” conference
10 March 2022
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
10 March 2022
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
10 March 2022
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 10 March 2022
10 March 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
10 March 2022
PODCAST
10 March 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
10 March 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
2 March 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Hertie School, Berlin
28 February 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an online seminar organised by the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies and Florence School of Banking and Finance at the European University Institute
24 February 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a virtual policy panel on “Unwinding QE” at the first annual Bank of England Agenda for Research (BEAR) conference
23 February 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gerald Braunberger and Christian Siedenbiedel on 21 February
17 February 2022
SPEECH
Opening remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at MNI Market News Webcast
16 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
- Abstract
- The ECB’s monetary policy strategy review confirmed that the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) remains the appropriate price measure for assessing the achievement of the medium-term price stability objective. However, the Governing Council recognised that the inclusion of costs related to owner-occupied housing in the HICP would better represent the inflation rate that is relevant for households. This article elaborates on the topic of owner-occupied housing and its proposed inclusion in the HICP. It showcases the two options considered by the Governing Council, focusing on their statistical and conceptual properties. For the net acquisition approach recommended by the Governing Council, the article presents analytical indices based on ECB approximations that serve as a blueprint for the quarterly internal measure to be monitored. Finally, the article looks ahead to the incorporation of the costs of owner-occupied housing into the HICP and the associated challenges, noting that the current HICP will remain the main reference index for monetary policy during the transition period.
- JEL Code
- C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
15 February 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 14 February and published on 15 February
15 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
- Abstract
- The article takes stock of Next Generation EU (NGEU) from a euro area perspective. NGEU is a temporary crisis instrument that, if implemented successfully, is expected to significantly improve Europe’s economic prospects. In the short term, it should support the recovery of the EU economy. In the medium term, NGEU should help to modernise the EU economies, with positive effects on their growth potential, resilience and convergence. The article provides a synthesis of the fiscal measures and structural reforms embedded in the national recovery and resilience plans of euro area countries. It also looks at the economic impact of the planned investments. Finally, the article examines the novel governance approach that can sustain a successful implementation of NGEU.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
14 February 2022
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the plenary session of the European Parliament
14 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
- Abstract
- This box investigates potential long-term effects that current supply shortages could have on euro area potential output growth. Depending on the persistence of supply bottlenecks, firms might consider finding new supply chains. If this happens, sectors that have greatly benefited from international exposure and globalisation in terms of productivity growth might experience a decline in trend total factor productivity. All else being equal, this could lead to a trend decline in potential output growth for the most affected countries. The likelihood of such a scenario is highly difficult to assess. On the one hand, the high sunk costs of establishing global supply chains imply that reshoring would not take place at a larger scale if the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is perceived to be temporary. On the other hand, a substantial shift in the geography of supply chains may occur because supply disruptions are very costly to firms. The challenges presented by this reorganisation process could be exacerbated if the pandemic encourages an increase in protectionism and de-globalisation. This box presents two scenarios, using historical elasticities between global value chain participation and trend total factor productivity growth, to give a flavour of the possible impact the current supply shortages could have on potential output.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
14 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
- Abstract
- After headline inflation had already reached very high levels in the United States in the first half of 2021 and increased further to 7% in December, euro area inflation also recorded a very rapid increase in the second half of 2021 but remained much lower than in the United States at 5% in December and – according to Eurostat’s flash release – at 5.1% in January. Most of the difference in overall inflation developments has been due to the far stronger increase in inflation less energy and food (and from a higher starting point) in the United States than in the euro area. Large contributions from some special items – including used car prices – continue to play a key role for explaining differences in inflation excluding food and energy. Turning to underlying drivers of inflation developments, the United States is more advanced in the business cycle than the euro area and the US labour market has tightened, which has started to be reflected in some upward pressure on wages. However it should be kept in mind that the pandemic is a unique situation with considerable differences in inflation developments when compared with “normal” times, which require close monitoring and add to the uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook in the United States as well as in the euro area. Upside surprises in inflation data releases have continued to be larger for the United States than for the euro area over recent quarters. Looking ahead, Consensus Economics forecasts expected inflation to remain below 2% in 2023 in the euro area but not in the United States and uncertainty around the outlook for inflation seemed to be much greater for the United States.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
N10 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→General, International, or Comparative
10 February 2022
THE ECB BLOG
Looking at inflation dynamics, the relative price dislocations associated with bottlenecks are intrinsically short-term, Chief Economist Philip R. Lane writes in The ECB Blog. An increase in the relative price for a scarce item will stimulate new supply, while cooling demand.
10 February 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB at the London School of Economics German Symposium
9 February 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview on Twitter with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 9 February 2022
7 February 2022
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
7 February 2022
SPEECH
7 February 2022
ANNEX
3 February 2022
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
3 February 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
3 February 2022
PODCAST
3 February 2022
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
3 February 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
25 January 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Emilis Linge and Dalius Simenas
14 January 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Markus Zydra, Bastian Brinkmann and Meike Schreiber on 10 January 2022
14 January 2022
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the meeting of the Conference of Parliamentary Committees for Union Affairs of the Parliaments of the European Union (COSAC)
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
- Abstract
- This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth maintenance periods of 2021 from 28 July 2021 to 2 November 2021.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
- Abstract
- This box presents a model-based approach for distinguishing between two unobserved components embedded in market-based measures of inflation compensation, namely inflation expectations and inflation risk premia. The approach relies on econometric models used to analyse the term structure of inflation-linked swap rates. Estimates indicate that the rise in inflation compensation observed since mid-2020 is attributable more to inflation risk premia than to inflation expectations. This suggests that the rise is mainly related to a shift in the inflation risks priced in, from lower than expected to higher than expected.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
- Abstract
- This box explores new indicators of the financing conditions faced by euro area companies, based on firm-level survey data. Drawing on the rich dataset provided by the survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), three synthetic indicators summarise how firms have perceived their financing conditions in the euro area since 2009. Overall, the indicators suggest there have been several important phases in firms’ perceptions of financing conditions, which relate closely to ECB monetary policy measures. The empirical analysis shows that, after the onset of the pandemic, firms’ perceptions of financing conditions played an increasingly important role in explaining their expectations of the future availability of bank loans.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
H32 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Firm
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
- Abstract
- During the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, supply and demand imbalances have put a strain on global production networks. We develop a two-step vector autoregression (VAR) procedure to gauge the impact of supply chain shocks on activity, trade and prices. In the first step, we use a sign restricted structural VAR with PMI output and PMI delivery times to recover the supply chain shock, which is our proxy for measuring episodes of supply chain strains. In the second step, we plug such shocks as exogenous variables into a companion VAR with endogenous real and nominal variables. Counterfactual scenarios are constructed to assess the effects of the supply bottlenecks, which are having a negative impact on real variables and pushing up prices. A medium-term assessment of the supply chain strains is also provided.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
- Abstract
- Understanding the expectations of households, firms and financial markets regarding monetary policy and macroeconomic developments is important for the conduct of monetary policy. Surveys can play an important role in understanding expectations. The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) brings together information on financial sector expectations of monetary policy and macroeconomic developments in one coherently structured and regularly updated survey. The objective of the SMA is to “gather regular, comprehensive, structured and systematic information on market participants’ expectations”. The ECB launched the SMA as a pilot project in April 2019 and, after concluding the pilot phase, has published aggregate results since June 2021. This article looks at the structure of the survey and the rationale behind it and explains what role it plays in understanding changes in market participants’ expectations of euro area monetary policy and the macroeconomy.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
11 January 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Isabella Bufacchi
8 January 2022
SPEECH
Remarks by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on “Climate and the Financial System” at the American Finance Association 2022 Virtual Annual Meeting
7 January 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Robert Shortt on 7 January and published on 7 January 2022
22 December 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert on 16 December and published on 22 December
16 December 2021
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 16 December 2021
16 December 2021
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
16 December 2021
PODCAST
16 December 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
16 December 2021
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
8 December 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the fifth annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board
8 December 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 5th ESRB Annual Conference
30 November 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit, Édouard Lederer and Thibaut Madelin on 24 November and published on 30 November
26 November 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Gerald Braunberger, Dennis Kremer and Christian Siedenbiedel on 23 November and published on 26 November 2021
24 November 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Sciences Po
24 November 2021
OTHER PUBLICATION
23 November 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Carolynn Look and Alexander Weber on 22 and published on 23 November 2021
19 November 2021
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the 31st Frankfurt European Banking Congress 2021 “From Recovery to Strength”
17 November 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a virtual event organised by Goldman Sachs
15 November 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB at the 24th Euro Finance Week
15 November 2021
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
15 November 2021
SPEECH
15 November 2021
SPEECH
11 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
- Abstract
- In the wake of the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy, a special survey was conducted among the panel of participants in the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The aim of the survey was to gain an insight into how the participants in the regular SPF survey have assessed the new strategy and into whether it has already had, or will have, an impact on their forecasts. Overall, respondents considered the new strategy to be an improvement, identifying the clearer inflation target (2%) and explicit commitment to symmetry as key elements. Regarding the impact on macroeconomic forecasts, around one-third of respondents indicated that they had revised their point longer-term inflation expectations, and a slightly larger portion indicated that they had revised (up) the balance of risks surrounding those expectations in response to the new strategy. The results of the survey suggest there is a strong correlation between what respondents viewed as key aspects in the new strategy and what they viewed as key improvements compared with the previous strategy.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
11 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
- Abstract
- Shocks to inflation can have longer-lasting effects in the presence of second-round effects. Wage-setting systems are more likely to trigger second-round effects if wage indexation is widespread in labour agreements. To derive a euro area indicator for the prevalence of wage indexation, characteristics of national wage indexation schemes are weighted by country shares in euro area private sector employment. Based on this indicator, around 3% of private sector employees in the euro area have wages and minimum wages automatically indexed to inflation. For most of the employees covered by automatic wage indexation, the inflation measure is backward-looking and includes energy. Indexation regimes where inflation has a formal, but not automatic role in wage negotiations, apply to currently around 18% of employees in the euro area and mostly consider forward-looking inflation measures excluding energy. Additionally, around 18% of euro area employees work in countries where only the minimum wages are automatically indexed to inflation. These indexation mechanisms are usually backward-looking with inflation measures that include energy. For more than half of the employees in the euro area, inflation does not play a formal role in wage setting but can be an important factor in wage negotiations. Where there is no formal role for inflation, inflation developments can be more easily disregarded in times of high uncertainty, with the focus being on job security instead, for example. Since the Great Financial Crisis, indexation regimes with a formal role for inflation in wage setting have become somewhat less prevalent in the euro area. Overall, the likelihood of euro area wage-setting schemes triggering second-round effects based on inflation indexation is relatively limited, particularly with regard to energy inflation. Recent hikes in energy inflation can be expected to lead to some automatic wage increases, mainly in minimum wages in some countries, affecting only a small share of private sector employees. However, a broadly based and automatic pass-through to wage growth through wage indexation mechanisms seems rather unlikely.
- JEL Code
- J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J38 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Public Policy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
11 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
- Abstract
- This article reviews three popular equilibrium exchange rate models, the purchasing power parity (PPP), behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and macroeconomic balance (MB) models. The aim is to address two questions: whether such models help in forecasting real and nominal exchange rates and which macroeconomic fundamentals contain such predictive power. The evidence suggests that real exchange rates adjust over time to their estimated real exchange rate equilibria only in the cases of the PPP and BEER models. Exploring this empirical regularity, it is possible to draw three important lessons. The first is that such equilibrium adjustment helps to forecast real exchange rates. The second lesson is that this real equilibrium adjustment process helps in forecasting nominal exchange rates, as most of the adjustment toward equilibrium is achieved by currency movements and not by relative price changes. The third is that most of the forecasting power comes from the exploitation of the mean-reverting properties of real exchange rates rather than an understanding of the relationship between exchange rates and economic fundamentals.
- JEL Code
- C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F37 : International Economics→International Finance→International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
10 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
- Abstract
- The growth of euro area labour productivity, measured by real GDP per hour worked, increased at the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic before declining during the subsequent economic recovery. This contradicts the general notion of productivity being procyclical and reflects the unique nature of this crisis. This box discusses the recent patterns in labour productivity and considers the extent to which some of these developments might fade or consolidate after the crisis.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
D61 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Allocative Efficiency, Cost?Benefit Analysis
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
10 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
- Abstract
- Productivity plays a key role in the economic resilience and social welfare of countries. Central bankers are also interested in higher productivity growth because it would contribute to increasing the natural rate of interest and, therefore, the effectiveness of monetary policy, its room for manoeuvre and its transmission to the economy. With this monetary policy perspective in mind, this article aims to show key productivity trends and drivers over the past few decades in the euro area. The article is complemented by Box 4 in this issue of the Economic Bulletin, which presents preliminary evidence on the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and of policy responses to it, on productivity in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
D61 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Allocative Efficiency, Cost?Benefit Analysis
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
9 November 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a virtual conference on “Diversity and Inclusion in Economics, Finance, and Central Banking”
9 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
- Abstract
- This box looks at recent trends in, and the outlook for, euro area housing markets using data from the ECB’s new Consumer Expectations Survey. Households from the highest income quintile, those expecting high income growth and households that are net savers are particularly likely to support housing demand going forward. While some accumulated savings may have already been used for house purchase, such savings are still expected to support housing demand in the near term. Households expect favourable credit conditions and increasing housing prices, which suggests a dynamic housing market but may also pose housing affordability problems for lower-income households.
- JEL Code
- R2 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis
R3 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
9 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
- Abstract
- This article reviews the developments in the euro area housing market during the various phases of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and compares them with previous crises. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the introduction of mandatory and voluntary restrictions on economic agents’ mobility had a strong impact on housing market activity. However, in contrast to the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis, the upward trend in house prices and housing loans continued unabated, which was also thanks to resilient demand for housing by households. During the second and third waves, the forceful support of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policy measures amid more targeted containment measures ensured favourable financing conditions and helped increase the attractiveness of housing for investment purposes, while supply-side bottlenecks may have exerted some upward pressure on house prices. The outlook for the euro area housing market remains dependent on uncertainties related to pandemic developments, policy support and structural changes.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
9 November 2021
SPEECH
Presentation by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the high-level panel on central bank digital currency, 30th Anniversary Conference of the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT)
8 November 2021
SPEECH
Welcome address by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Money Markets
8 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
- Abstract
- This box assesses the recent dynamics and outlook for economic activity in more contact-intensive services in the euro area, which were particularly adversely affected by the pandemic. Following the marked deterioration during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, value added in those services rebounded strongly in the second and third quarters of 2021, while remaining well below its pre-pandemic level. The ample slack in these subsectors is also confirmed by the significant role of demand as a factor limiting activity, which in turn appears to be affected by pandemic restrictions. The gradual resolution of the public health crisis and the ensuing reopening of the economy are expected to support a continued recovery in more contact-intensive services. In the medium term, structural factors, such as changes in households’ preferences and working arrangements, will also play a role in shaping the recovery path of consumer services.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
8 November 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Lluís Pellícer on 3 November 2021
3 November 2021
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Chair of the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the COP26 Finance Day Presidency Event on “A Financial System for Net Zero”
29 October 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 68 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 4 and 13 October 2021. According to these contacts, overall activity was strong or growing across a range of sectors. However, supply constraints were increasingly limiting firms’ ability to meet demand and were generating pipeline price pressures which, while transitory in nature, were turning out to be more persistent than some had anticipated. There were also more widespread reports of labour shortages, not least as the recovery of high-contact services had stimulated recruitment activity. Owing to the pipeline prices pressures and the recent surge in energy prices, contacts anticipated greater pass-through to consumer prices and higher wages in 2022 than they had a few months ago.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
28 October 2021
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 28 October 2021
28 October 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
26 October 2021
PRESS RELEASE
26 October 2021
THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
14 October 2021
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-fourth meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
11 October 2021
SPEECH
Welcome address by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice
7 October 2021
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Central Bank of Ireland webinar "The importance of data"
7 October 2021
SPEECH
Welcome address by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2021”
1 October 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conference on “Implications of Federal Reserve Actions in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic”
28 September 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at ECB Forum on Central Banking "Beyond the pandemic: the future of monetary policy"
27 September 2021
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
24 September 2021
SPEECH
Panel contribution by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to the 5th Joint Regional Financing Arrangements Research Seminar organised by the European Stability Mechanism
24 September 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Annette Weisbach, CNBC, on 23 September
23 September 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the 8th Conference on the Banking Union, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main
23 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
- Abstract
- In its climate change action plan, the ECB committed to accelerating the development of new models and conducting theoretical and empirical analyses to monitor the implications of climate change and related policies for the economy. As a first step in its detailed roadmap of climate-related actions, the ECB envisages the inclusion of technical assumptions on carbon pricing in Eurosystem/ECB staff projections. Against this backdrop, this box summarises the genesis and basic features of the EU emissions trading system (ETS), the system setting the carbon price in the EU. The EU ETS, which began operating in 2005, is a “cap and trade” system where a cap is set by the EU on the total amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted by the activities covered by the system. It has been implemented in “phases” designed to gradually reduce the cap while increasing the scope of the system. In July 2021 a revision of the EU ETS was proposed in the context of the “Fit for 55” package. Meanwhile, the price of emissions allowances traded on the EU ETS has increased from €8 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent at the beginning of 2018 to around €60 more recently. So far, the main impact of changes in emissions allowance prices has been on HICP energy inflation, and, overall, the risk that emissions allowance prices under the current EU ETS may translate into significantly higher headline inflation in the near term appears limited. However, against the backdrop of the ECB’s recently announced action plan, these and other climate change mitigation polices will be further explored with regard to their implications for macroeconomic modelling and monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
22 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
- Abstract
- This box assesses the health of the euro area non-financial corporate sector at an aggregate level during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic using the quarterly sectoral accounts. The results suggest that non-financial corporate liquidity was safeguarded at the aggregated sector level. This was mainly due to a build-up of cash buffers, as is typical for crisis periods, and the timely and extensive reactions from the monetary, fiscal and supervisory authorities. Policy interventions provided direct and indirect support to non-financial corporations and enabled firms to substantially increase their recourse to debt financing. However, non-financial corporate profitability, operating efficiency, indebtedness and vulnerabilities came under pressure, increasing the risk of a rise in firm defaults in the future.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
21 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
- Abstract
- This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations and liquidity developments during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2021 (28 April 2021 to 27 July 2021).
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
21 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
- Abstract
- Before the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, HICP inflation was relatively subdued in the euro area, standing at 1.2% in February 2020. In the United States, CPI inflation was substantially stronger, at 2.3% in the same month. After having declined over 2020, headline inflation has increased strongly in the United States and the euro area over recent months. Most of the increase, especially in the United States, has been driven by only a few items in the consumption baskets – including energy prices. Looking at developments in underlying inflation, US CPI inflation less food and energy has increased strongly, significantly surpassing its pre-pandemic levels, while HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX) in the euro area has remained below its pre-pandemic levels – reflecting in part a still larger amount of slack in the euro area economy. Recent increases in inflation have pushed up the short-term inflation expectations of professional forecasters for the United States and, to a much lesser extent, also for the euro area, but inflation rates are expected to decrease substantially again over the first half of 2022. A substantial part of the strong increases in inflation over recent months in the United States and the euro area can be attributed to special factors that are likely to be of a temporary nature. For a more permanent increase in inflation, price pressures would usually need to become more broad-based (especially in the euro area) and also reflect increasing labour cost pressures. However, there is so far no firm indication of the latter once the effects of changes in the composition of employment and of job retention schemes are taken into account.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
20 September 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Annual Conference of Latvijas Banka on "Sustainable Economy in Times of Change"
20 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
- Abstract
- The third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) enabled one of the largest liquidity injections by the European Central Bank (ECB). This article provides an assessment of the effectiveness of the operations in supporting bank lending conditions. It discusses the main transmission channels of TLTRO III, including in relation to other policy measures. This article also includes a box on the importance of collateral easing measures, a box on the impact of TLTRO III on money market rates, and a box on the consequences of high participation in TLTRO III for excess liquidity levels. The article then documents, based on hard data on banks’ balance sheets and soft information from bank surveys, the extent to which TLTRO III has eased bank lending conditions, thereby helping to support access to credit for households and firms during the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
20 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
- Abstract
- This article analyses the evolution of hours worked per worker in the euro area, in the light of their relevance for the labour contribution to the production of goods and services and for the capacity of the labour market to adjust to macroeconomic developments. Annual hours worked per worker in the euro area have been on a downward trend. Between 1995 and 2019, they declined by more than a hundred hours per worker, from 1,681 to 1,476. Most of this decline results from a rising share of part-time work which in turn can mainly be explained by the increasing labour force participation of women. Labour supply factors have a clear impact as most people working part-time do so voluntarily. Hours worked per worker also play an important role in the adjustment of the labour market during cyclical downturns, as some firms choose to reduce hours per worker to protect employment. This feature is an important factor in assessing the strength of the labour market during subsequent recoveries.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
16 September 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by David Rubenstein, Bloomberg, on 13 September
15 September 2021
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the IMFS Policy Webinar
15 September 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bond Market Contact Group meeting
14 September 2021
THE ECB BLOG
While rising inflation understandably worries people, current inflation rates should be interpreted with caution, writes Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel.
13 September 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, 148th Baden-Baden Entrepreneurs’ Talk
9 September 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
1 September 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, on 30 August 2021
1 September 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Miquel Roig and Jorge Zuloaga on 26 August and published on 1 September 2021
31 August 2021
THE ECB BLOG
The existential threat posed by climate change implies that central banks must not stand on the sidelines in the fight against global warming, writes Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. Our ambitious climate action plan outlines how the ECB will contribute within its mandate.
25 August 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balazs Koranyi and Frank Siebelt
24 August 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Annual Congress of the European Economic Association (EEA)
21 August 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Carla Neuhaus on 17 August and published on 20 August 2021
19 August 2021
THE ECB BLOG
Our revised forward guidance is a fundamental step in fulfilling our commitment to 2% inflation, writes Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. He also discusses the three conditions that should be met before interest rates are raised.
4 August 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
- Abstract
- This article reviews how policy institutions – international organisations and central banks – use big data and machine learning methods to analyse the business cycle. It provides different examples to show how big data and machine learning methods are particularly suitable for capturing large shocks and non-linearities in real time. The coronavirus crisis is a case in point, where big data have provided invaluable timely signals on the state of the economy, thus helping to track and assess economic activity, domestic demand and labour market developments in real time. Finally, the article discusses the main challenges faced by central banks when using non-standard data and methods and areas of further application to the work of central banks.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
29 July 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Frank Wiebe and Jan Mallien
29 July 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Federico Fubini
27 July 2021
THE ECB BLOG
If we make the recovery fund work and if we embed the lessons from the pandemic in the EMU governance framework, we can emerge from the crisis with a stronger economy and greater social and political cohesion, says Executive Board member Fabio Panetta in The ECB Blog.
23 July 2021
PRESS RELEASE
23 July 2021
OTHER PUBLICATION
22 July 2021
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 22 July 2021
22 July 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
20 July 2021
PRESS RELEASE
20 July 2021
THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
14 July 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the virtual Financial Statements series hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics
13 July 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 11 July 2021
10 July 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Patrick Bernau and Dennis Kremer on 8 July and published on 10 July 2021
2 July 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie Cécile Berenger
28 June 2021
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Conference of the Governors of Mediterranean Central Banks on “Central banks at the frontline of the COVID-19 crisis: weathering the storm, spurring the recovery”
24 June 2021
SPEECH
Guest lecture by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the School of Economics and Management, University of Cyprus
21 June 2021
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
20 June 2021
PRESS RELEASE
17 June 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Paul Gordon on 17 June 2021
14 June 2021
SPEECH
Welcome address by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB DG-Research Symposium “Climate change, financial markets and green growth”
14 June 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Johanna Treeck and Florian Eder on 11 June 2021 in Frankfurt
10 June 2021
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 10 June 2021
10 June 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
3 June 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Frank Elderson, Chair of the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System, Member of the Executive Board and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at The Green Swan Conference – Coordinating finance on climate
2 June 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, on the occasion of the awarding of the Prix Turgot 2021, Paris
28 May 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balazs Koranyi, Frank Siebelt and Francesco Canepa
27 May 2021
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the “VIII. New Paradigm Workshop”, organised by the Forum New Economy
26 May 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jun Ishikawa
19 May 2021
PRESS RELEASE
19 May 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
11 May 2021
PRESS RELEASE
10 May 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert and Marie Charrel
5 May 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the OMFIF virtual panel
3 May 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, conducted by Tonia Mastrobuoni on 27 April 2021
29 April 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gabriel Mellqvist on 29 April 2021
29 April 2021
PRESS RELEASE
29 April 2021
EURO MONEY MARKET
28 April 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview on Twitter with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 28 April 2021
26 April 2021
SPEECH
Welcome address by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the joint BIS, BoE, ECB and IMF conference on “Spillovers in a “post-pandemic, low-for-long” world”
23 April 2021
PRESS RELEASE
22 April 2021
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 22 April 2021
22 April 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
20 April 2021
PRESS RELEASE
20 April 2021
THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
14 April 2021
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
14 April 2021
ANNUAL REPORT
14 April 2021
OTHER PUBLICATION
12 April 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Sara Eisen on 9 April 2021 and broadcast on the same day
11 April 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Luis Doncel and published on 11 April 2021
9 April 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Tim Bartz and Stefan Kaiser on 1 April and published on 9 April 2021, in print on 10 April 2021
8 April 2021
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-third meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
27 March 2021
SPEECH
Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at “The Outlook for the Economy and Finance” workshop (fully digital) organised by The European House − Ambrosetti
25 March 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at NYU Stern Fireside Chat
23 March 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Annette Weisbach on 22 March 2021
22 March 2021
THE ECB BLOG
Our pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) has provided crucial support to euro area citizens since its launch a year ago, writes President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog. The PEPP has been, and remains, at the core of our pandemic policy response.
18 March 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the High-level conference on “Strengthening the EU’s bank crisis management and deposit insurance framework: for a more resilient and efficient banking union” organised by the European Commission
18 March 2021
PRESS RELEASE
18 March 2021
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
17 March 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview on Twitter with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 16 March 2021
17 March 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit, Elsa Conesa, Lucie Robequain and Sophie Rolland
16 March 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold
11 March 2021
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 11 March 2021
11 March 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
3 March 2021
SPEECH
Intervention by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the “Greening Monetary Policy – Central Banking and Climate Change” online seminar, organised as part of the “Cleveland Fed Conversations on Central Banking”
2 March 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an online event organised by Bocconi University
2 March 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank (ECB), conducted by Sérgio Aníbal
1 March 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the “Jahresimpuls Mittelstand 2021” of Bundesverband Mittelständische Wirtschaft
1 March 2021
SPEECH
Panel contribution by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Banque de France / Sciences Po Financial Stability Review Conference 2021 “Is macroprudential policy resilient to the pandemic?”
26 February 2021
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Third Annual Conference organised by the European Fiscal Board on “High Debt, Low Rates and Tail Events: Rules-Based Fiscal Frameworks under Stress”
26 February 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 22 February
25 February 2021
SPEECH
Presentation by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the IESE Business School Alumni Learning Programme Webinar “Risk, reform and recovery in the eurozone”
25 February 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários
25 February 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Ingūna Ukenābele on 22 February 2021
22 February 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the opening plenary session of the European Parliamentary Week 2021 in virtual format
18 February 2021
SPEECH
Guest lecture by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business
13 February 2021
THE ECB BLOG
Climate change requires urgent action and we at the ECB must be committed to doing our part, says Executive Board member Frank Elderson. The EU Treaties define clear obligations and limits. They provide substantial scope for the ECB to take action on climate change.
8 February 2021
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the plenary session of the European Parliament
8 February 2021
PRESS RELEASE
7 February 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie-Pierre Gröndahl and Hervé Gattegno
4 February 2021
PRESS RELEASE
31 January 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Markus Zydra on 26 January and published on 1 February 2021 as a shortened version in Süddeutsche Zeitung
31 January 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Klemens Kindermann on 29 January 2021 and published on 31 January 2021
28 January 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the LSE conference on “Financial Cycles, Risk, Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences”
25 January 2021
SPEECH
Panel contribution by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Lámfalussy Lectures E-Conference 2021 organised by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank
25 January 2021
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 50th anniversary of the Associazione Italiana per l’Analisi Finanziaria (by videoconference)
21 January 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
19 January 2021
PRESS RELEASE
19 January 2021
THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
12 January 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andras Szigètvari on 7 January 2021 und published on 12 January 2021
18 December 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview on Twitter with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 17 December 2020
16 December 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, as part of the seminar series “Havarie Europa. Zur Pathogenese europäischer Gegenwarten” at the Hamburg Institute for Social Research (Hamburger Institut für Sozialforschung)
14 December 2020
SPEECH
Welcome address by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the third roundtable on euro risk-free rates
14 December 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Rome Investment Forum 2020
10 December 2020
PRESS RELEASE
10 December 2020
PRESS RELEASE
10 December 2020
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 10 December 2020
10 December 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
2 December 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balázs Korányi on 1 December 2020
1 December 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow, Carolynn Look and Alexander Weber on 30 November 2020
28 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Petri Sajari on 24 November 2020
27 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by João Silvestre on 19 November 2020
26 November 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Economics Department and IM-TCD, Trinity College Dublin
25 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 23 November 2020
24 November 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at The Bank of Finland Monetary Policy webinar: New Challenges to Monetary Policy Strategies
23 November 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Money Markets
23 November 2020
PRESS RELEASE
23 November 2020
OTHER PUBLICATION
23 November 2020
OTHER PUBLICATION
22 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit, Elsa Conesa and Sophie Rolland
19 November 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Financial Stability Conference on “Stress, Contagion, and Transmission” organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Office of Financial Research
19 November 2020
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
17 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Annette Weisbach, CNBC, on 12 November and aired on 13 November
17 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Maria Nobre, broadcast on Tuesday, 17 November at 12:00 a.m. CET
16 November 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 23rd EURO FINANCE WEEK
11 November 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECB Forum on Central Banking
4 November 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the second EBI Policy Conference on “Europe and the Covid-19 Crisis – Looking back and looking forward”
4 November 2020
SPEECH
Transcript of Q&A session following a fireside chat with Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at an online UBS event on the European economic and policy outlook, conducted on 30 October 2020
3 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jan Mallien and Frank Wiebe
2 November 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the ESCB Legal Conference
29 October 2020
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 29 Oktober 2020
29 October 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
27 October 2020
PRESS RELEASE
27 October 2020
THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
20 October 2020
THE ECB BLOG
High-quality data and statistics provide indispensable input for sound policy decisions, including at the ECB, writes Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. Today’s World Statistics Day reminds us of the importance of data we can trust.
19 October 2020
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the MNI Connect Roundtable
19 October 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie Charrel and Eric Albert
18 October 2020
SPEECH
Contribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, during the session “Rebuilding and Sustaining Growth”
17 October 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eirini Chrysolora
15 October 2020
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-second meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
12 October 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Interparliamentary Conference on Stability, Economic Coordination and Governance in the European Union
8 October 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Conference “The Werner Report, 50 Years on”, organised by the Luxembourg Centre for Contemporary and Digital History in cooperation with EUI Florence
7 October 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
7 October 2020
PRESS RELEASE
6 October 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 62nd NABE Annual Meeting “Global Reset? Economics, Business, and Policy in the Pandemic”
1 October 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Luke Heighton on 29 September 2020
30 September 2020
PRESS RELEASE
30 September 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the “ECB and Its Watchers XXI” conference
28 September 2020
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
28 September 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the European Sustainable Finance Summit, Frankfurt am Main
28 September 2020
PRESS RELEASE
28 September 2020
OTHER PUBLICATION
28 September 2020
OTHER PUBLICATION
28 September 2020
OTHER PUBLICATION
28 September 2020
OTHER PUBLICATION
24 September 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview on Twitter with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted on 24 September 2020
23 September 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Paul Gordon and Carolynn Look
22 September 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the meeting of the ECB Money Market Contact Group
22 September 2020
PRESS RELEASE
21 September 2020
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly, 21 September 2020
20 September 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Jesús Rivasés on 14 September 2020
18 September 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the panel discussion “Verteilung der Lasten der Pandemie” (“Sharing the burden of the pandemic”), Deutscher Juristentag 2020
17 September 2020
PRESS RELEASE
16 September 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jean-Philippe Lacour
15 September 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 24th Economist Roundtable with the Government of Greece
13 September 2020
SPEECH
Contribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB during the session “Economic, financial and monetary impact of COVID-19 pandemic, and post-crisis options for policies and tools”
11 September 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Centre for European Reform and the Eurofi Financial Forum on “Is the current ECB monetary policy doing more harm than good and what are the alternatives?”
11 September 2020
THE ECB BLOG
Our current measures are providing crucial support to the economic recovery in the euro area, writes Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. But there is no room for complacency as inflation remains far below the aim and risks continue to be tilted to the downside.
10 September 2020
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 10 September 2020
10 September 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
31 August 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balazs Koranyi and Frank Siebelt on 28 August 2020 and published on 31 August 2020
28 August 2020
PRESS RELEASE
27 August 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Steve Liesman on 27 August 2020 and broadcast on 27 August 2020
27 August 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City “Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy”
26 August 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the EEA Roundtable on Monetary Policy, Low Interest Rates and Risk Taking at the 35th Congress of the European Economic Association
20 August 2020
PRESS RELEASE
19 August 2020
THE ECB BLOG
The ECB’s swap and repo lines are essential stabilising tools in the coronavirus crisis. In a joint Blog post, Executive Board members Fabio Panetta and Isabel Schnabel explain how these tools reduce funding risks, prevent financial contagion and support the euro’s use in global transactions.
18 August 2020
PRESS RELEASE
18 August 2020
PRESS RELEASE
4 August 2020
THE ECB BLOG
While there has been some rebound in economic activity, the level of economic slack remains extraordinarily high and the outlook highly uncertain, writes Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. Progress in containing the virus will be central in determining the size and speed of the recovery.
31 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, conducted by Dominique Lecoq and Marc Aubault on 29 July and published on 31 July
27 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Tonia Mastrobuoni and published on 27 July 2020
26 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Casimiro García Abadillo on 21 July 2020 and published on 26 July 2020
24 July 2020
PRESS RELEASE
24 July 2020
OTHER PUBLICATION
23 July 2020
THE ECB BLOG
Learning the lessons of the past, Europe has moved towards a new model for dealing with crises, writes President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog. We have shown that we can act quickly, adapt our institutions and lay the groundwork for forging a new Europe.
23 July 2020
PRESS RELEASE
23 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Video interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted live by David Ignatius on 22 July 2020
22 July 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 18th annual symposium on “Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: an Agenda for Europe and the United States” organised by the Program on International Financial Systems and Harvard Law School (by videoconference)
21 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 16 July and published on 21 July 2020
17 July 2020
PRESS RELEASE
17 July 2020
PRESS RELEASE
17 July 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a virtual roundtable on “Sustainable Crisis Responses in Europe” organised by the INSPIRE research network, 17 July 2020
16 July 2020
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 16 July 2020
16 July 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
14 July 2020
PRESS RELEASE
14 July 2020
THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
13 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Transcript of an interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, with ARD “plusminus”, conducted by Markus Gürne on 8 July 2020
8 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Video interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Roula Khalaf on 7 July 2020 and posted on 8 July 2020
7 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Mark Beunderman on 1 July 2020
7 July 2020
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Meeting with Members of the European Parliament
2 July 2020
SPEECH
Presentation by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Berlin Economic Roundtable
2 July 2020
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Salzburg Global webinar
1 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balázs Korányi, Francesco Canepa and Frank Siebelt
1 July 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta at a Capital Markets webinar organised by the European Investment Bank and the European Stability Mechanism
1 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Marco Zatterin on 26 June 2020 and published on 1 July 2020
28 June 2020
THE ECB BLOG
Our crisis measures respond to the worst economic crisis in the post-war period, says Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. They are necessary, suitable and proportionate and benefit all European citizens.
27 June 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Petersberger Sommerdialog
25 June 2020
SPEECH
Remarks by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee Webinar Series
25 June 2020
SPEECH
Informal welcome remarks by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bond Market Contact Group
25 June 2020
PRESS RELEASE
24 June 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Financial Center Breakfast Webinar organised by Frankfurt Main Finance
22 June 2020
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Princeton BCF Covid-19 Webinar Series
22 June 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Tim Bartz and Stefan Kaiser on 15 June and published on 22 June 2020
19 June 2020
PRESS RELEASE
16 June 2020
PRESS RELEASE
16 June 2020
OTHER PUBLICATION
16 June 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert, and published on 16 June 2020
14 June 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by María Jesús Pérez on 9 June 2020 and published on 14 June 2020
13 June 2020
SPEECH
Remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, via videoconference at the inaugural session of the Italian National Consultation
12 June 2020
THE ECB BLOG
The goals of boosting the euro’s global standing and sharing its advantages more evenly are one and the same, writes Executive Board member Fabio Panetta. Through the right mix of European fiscal and monetary policy, we can build a better functioning Monetary Union that achieves both of these goals.
11 June 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Isabella Bufacchi on 8 June
10 June 2020
SPEECH
Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB at the Institute of International and European Affairs, Dublin, (by video conference)
10 June 2020
PRESS RELEASE
10 June 2020
PRESS RELEASE
10 June 2020
SPEECH
Remarks by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an online seminar hosted by the Florence School of Banking & Finance
9 June 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview on Twitter with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 9 June 2020
8 June 2020
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECON committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
5 June 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Léa Salamé and Thomas Sotto on 4 June 2020
5 June 2020
PRESS RELEASE
5 June 2020
THE ECB BLOG
Two main factors called for further policy action, writes Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. First, the pandemic-related negative shock to inflation poses a threat to medium-term price stability. Second, while conditions in financial markets have stabilised substantially, the situation remains fragile.
4 June 2020
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 4 June 2020
4 June 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
27 May 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Karen Horn
27 May 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 25 May and published on 27 May 2020
22 May 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 Online Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland/European Central Bank, 22 May 2020
19 May 2020
SPEECH
Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability Policy Webinar, 19 May 2020
18 May 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Dominique Seux, Federico Fubini, Thomas Hanke and Carlos Segovia, published on 18 May 2020
18 May 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Luis Doncel on 11 May 2020 and published on 18 May 2020
14 May 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andras Szigetvari on 6 May and published on 14 May 2020
12 May 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Dorinde Meuzelaar and Martin Visser on 8 May 2020 and published on 12 May 2020
11 May 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Tonia Mastrobuoni and published on 11 May 2020
7 May 2020
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
5 May 2020
PRESS RELEASE
1 May 2020
THE ECB BLOG
In an ECB Blog post, Chief Economist Philip R. Lane discusses the macroeconomic scenarios developed by ECB staff to illustrate the possible impact of the pandemic. He also explains current monetary policy and outlines the approach to setting the future course of monetary policy.
30 April 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
30 April 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
30 April 2020
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 30 April 2020
30 April 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
28 April 2020
PRESS RELEASE
28 April 2020
THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
22 April 2020
PRESS RELEASE
18 April 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by João Silvestre on 15 April 2020
16 April 2020
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-first meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
16 April 2020
SPEECH
Remarks by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a 24-Hour Global Webinar co-organised by the SAFE Policy Center on “The COVID-19 Crisis and Its Aftermath: Corporate Governance Implications and Policy Challenges”
15 April 2020
PRESS RELEASE
9 April 2020
THE ECB BLOG
Our response to coronavirus is designed to reach the firms and families facing a steep loss of income and rising anxiety about the future, writes President Christine Lagarde. She adds that full alignment of fiscal and monetary policies is the best way to protect productive capacity and employment.
8 April 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Matthieu Pelloli and published on 9 April 2020
8 April 2020
OTHER PUBLICATION
Colloquium in honour of Benoît Coeuré, held on 17-18 December 2019
7 April 2020
PRESS RELEASE
4 April 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Angelos Athanasopoulos and published on 4 April 2020
3 April 2020
THE ECB BLOG
Commercial paper purchases are key for monetary policy transmission to the real economy, explain Vice-President Luis de Guindos and Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel in The ECB Blog. They ease financing conditions for firms and help them manage short-term funding needs.
21 March 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Patrick Bernau and Dennis Kremer
20 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
20 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
19 March 2020
THE ECB BLOG
We are committed to playing our role in supporting every citizen of the euro area through this extremely challenging time, President Christine Lagarde writes in The ECB Blog. Our temporary pandemic emergency purchase programme is designed to address the unprecedented situation our monetary union faces.
18 March 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
18 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
15 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
15 March 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Daniele Manca on 14 March 2020 and published on 15 March 2020
13 March 2020
THE ECB BLOG
We will not tolerate any risks to the smooth transmission of our monetary policy in all jurisdictions of the euro area, Executive Board member Philip R. Lane writes in the inaugural post of The ECB Blog. The post explains the analytical framework underlying the March monetary policy measures.
12 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
12 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
12 March 2020
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 12 March 2020
2 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
27 February 2020
SPEECH
Dinner remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Centre for European Reform
27 February 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Barclays International Monetary Policy Forum
24 February 2020
PRESS RELEASE
24 February 2020
PRESS RELEASE
21 February 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 2020 US Monetary Policy Forum
20 February 2020
SPEECH
Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the European Banking Federation Committee meeting
19 February 2020
PRESS RELEASE
19 February 2020
OTHER PUBLICATION
14 February 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Robert Shortt on 13 February 2020 and broadcast (in part) on 13 February 2020
11 February 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Anja Ettel and Holger Zschäpitz on 10 February 2020, published on 11 February 2020
11 February 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the financial markets workshop of the Economic Council (Finanzmarktklausur des Wirtschaftsrats der CDU)
11 February 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Juristische Studiengesellschaft
11 February 2020
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, on the occasion of the presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2018 at the European Parliament
10 February 2020
PRESS RELEASE
10 February 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 6 February 2020 and published on 10 February 2020
6 February 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the XXVI Santander Iberian Conference
6 February 2020
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECON committee of the European Parliament
3 February 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Rallou Alexopoulou on 3 February 2020 and broadcast (in part) on 3 February 2020
2 February 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 27 January, and published on 2 February 2020
24 January 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Francine Lacqua and broadcast on 24 January
24 January 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Jean-Paul Chapel
23 January 2020
PRESS RELEASE
23 January 2020
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 23 January 2020
23 January 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
21 January 2020
PRESS RELEASE
21 January 2020
THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
9 January 2020
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of England Workshop on "The Future of Inflation Targeting" in London, 9 January 2020
8 January 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, by Pierre-Henri de Menthon and Sabine Syfuss-Arnaud
18 December 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB colloquium on “Monetary policy: the challenges ahead” held in his honour
16 December 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Central Bank of Ireland/ECB Conference on Household Finance and Consumption
12 December 2019
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 12 December 2019
2 December 2019
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECON committee of the European Parliament
29 November 2019
SPEECH
Closing remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the VIII High-level Policy Dialogue between Eurosystem and Latin American central banks
28 November 2019
SPEECH
Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the National Treasury Management Agency
28 November 2019
SPEECH
Remarks by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the PSE job forum, Paris School of Economics
25 November 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Public Lecture for the Centre for Finance and the Department of Economics at University College London
22 November 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress
14 November 2019
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, CEPR International Macroeconomics and Finance Programme Meeting
12 November 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB workshop on money markets, monetary policy implementation and central bank balance sheets
11 November 2019
SPEECH
Opening remarks by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the “Getting to know the EU Institutions and Organisations in Luxembourg” event
28 October 2019
SPEECH
Remarks by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the farewell event in his honour
24 October 2019
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 24 October 2019
18 October 2019
SPEECH
Statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the fortieth meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
16 October 2019
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Brookings Institution in Washington DC
11 October 2019
SPEECH
Acceptance speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, for the Laurea Honoris Causa from the Università Cattolica
3 October 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Global Interdependence Center Central Banking Series conference
1 October 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the Academy of Athens
1 October 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the University of California
24 September 2019
SPEECH
Welcome address by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, to the Money Market Contact Group
23 September 2019
SPEECH
Introductory Statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the ECON committee of the European Parliament, Brussels, 23 September 2019
16 September 2019
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Bloomberg, London, 16 September 2019
12 September 2019
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 12 September 2019
4 September 2019
SPEECH
Keynote lecture by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 50th anniversary conference of The Money, Macro and Finance Research Group, London, 4 September 2019
27 August 2019
SPEECH
Intervention by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECB policy panel of the Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Manchester, 27 August 2019
25 July 2019
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 25 July 2019
17 July 2019
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, prior to an informal exchange of views with the High Council of Public Finance, Paris, 17 July 2019
11 July 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an event organised by the SAFE Policy Center, Frankfurt am Main, 11 July 2019
1 July 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of Finland conference on Monetary Policy and Future of EMU
29 June 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Petersberger Sommerdialog, Königswinter, 29 June 2019
25 June 2019
SPEECH
Dinner remarks by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Frankfurt am Main, 25 June 2019
18 June 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, ECB Forum on Central Banking, Sintra, 18 June 2019
12 June 2019
SPEECH
Closing remarks by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB’s Bond Market Contact Group meeting, 12 June 2019
10 June 2019
SPEECH
Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, during the Instituto de Empresa (IE) Business Leadership Forum at the IE Business School, Madrid, 10 June 2019
6 June 2019
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Vilnius, 6 June 2019
16 May 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 21st Geneva Conference on the World Economy, 16 May 2019
15 May 2019
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, prior to an informal exchange of views with the Finance Committee of the National Assembly, Paris, 15 May 2019
12 April 2019
SPEECH
Statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the thirty-ninth meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, Washington, D.C., 12 April 2019
10 April 2019
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 10 April 2019
1 April 2019
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Brussels, 1 April 2019
1 April 2019
ANNUAL REPORT
29 March 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Benoît Cœuré at the Banque de France Symposium & 34th SUERF Colloquium on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the euro on “The Euro Area: Staying the Course through Uncertainties”, Paris, 29 March 2019
27 March 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at The ECB and Its Watchers XX conference, Frankfurt am Main, 27 March 2019
27 March 2019
SPEECH
Remarks by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at The ECB and Its Watchers XX Conference, Frankfurt am Main, 27 March 2019
27 March 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the conference 'The ECB and Its Watchers XX', Frankfurt am Main, 27 March 2019
22 March 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Warsaw, 22 March 2019
18 March 2019
SPEECH
Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at Asociación para el Progreso de la Dirección (APD), Madrid, 18 March 2019
7 March 2019
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 7 March 2019
5 March 2019
PRESS RELEASE
26 February 2019
SPEECH
Opening remarks by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the annual dinner of the working group on euro risk-free rates, Frankfurt am Main, 26 February 2019
20 February 2019
SPEECH
Presentation by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Frankfurt Main Finance Breakfast, Frankfurt am Main, 20 February 2019
15 February 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Council on Foreign Relations, New York City, 15 February 2019
11 February 2019
SPEECH
Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at Deusto Business School, Madrid, 11 February 2019
4 February 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Lamfalussy Lectures Conference of Lamfalussy Award at Central Bank of Hungary, Budapest, 4 February 2019
28 January 2019
SPEECH
Introductory Statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the ECON committee of the European Parliament, Brussels, 28 January 2019
24 January 2019
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 24 January 2019
15 January 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, at the plenary debate of the European Parliament on the ECB’s Annual Report 2017, Strasbourg, 15 January 2019
13 December 2018
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 13 December 2018
27 November 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Workshop discussion: Sustainability is becoming mainstream, Frankfurt, 27 November 2018
26 November 2018
SPEECH
Introductory Statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the ECON committee of the European Parliament, Brussels, 26 November 2018
26 November 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, on “Herausforderungen für die Europäische Geldpolitik 2019” at 33. Internationales ZinsForum 2018, Frankfurt am Main, 26 November 2018
23 November 2018
SPEECH
Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, on the occasion of the award of the Bernácer Prize to Benjamin Moll
16 November 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Frankfurt European Banking Congress, Frankfurt am Main, 16 November 2018
13 November 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the UBS Conference, London, 13 November 2018
8 November 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a conference on “Scaling up Green Finance: The Role of Central Banks”, organised by the Network for Greening the Financial System, the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Council on Economic Policies, Berlin, 8 November 2018
26 October 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a conference on “Exiting Unconventional Monetary Policies”, organised by the Euro 50 Group, the CF40 forum and CIGI, Paris, 26 October 2018
26 October 2018
SPEECH
First Lamfalussy Lecture by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the Banque Nationale de Belgique, Brussels, 26 October 2018
25 October 2018
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 25 October 2018
17 October 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the “la Caixa” Chair for Economics and Society conference, Madrid, 17 October 2018
12 October 2018
SPEECH
Statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the thirty-eighth meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, Bali (Indonesia), 12 October 2018
10 October 2018
SPEECH
Speaking points by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the MNI Connect Roundtable, Singapore, 10 October 2018
4 October 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Les Champs du Possible, Châteaudun, 4 October 2018
27 September 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Money, Macro and Finance Research Group Conference on the Resilience of the Global Financial Architecture, London, 27 September 2018
25 September 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB’s Money Market Contact Group meeting, Frankfurt am Main, 25 September 2018
24 September 2018
SPEECH
Introductory Statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the ECON committee of the European Parliament, Brussels, 24 September 2018
20 September 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the SUERF conference “Sustainable Policy Responses: EU and US Perspectives”, New York, 20 September 2018
17 September 2018
SPEECH
Presentation by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to the Société Royale d’Economie Politique, Brussels, 17 September 2018
17 September 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, 17 September 2018
13 September 2018
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
31 August 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at La Granda courses, Asturias, 31 August 2018
28 August 2018
SPEECH
Presentation by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 33rd Annual Congress of European Economic Association, Cologne, 28 August 2018
26 July 2018
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 26 July 2018
9 July 2018
SPEECH
Introductory Statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the ECON committee of the European Parliament, Brussels, 9 July 2018
5 July 2018
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an event organised by the ECB’s Representative office in Brussels, 5 July 2018
3 July 2018
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Banca Naţională a României, Bucharest, 3 July 2018
1 July 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Panel at the Petersberger Sommerdialog, Königswinter, 30 June 2018
26 June 2018
SPEECH
Welcome remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the meeting of the ECB’s Bond Market Contact Group, Frankfurt am Main, 26 June 2018
19 June 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, ECB Forum on Central Banking, Sintra, 19 June 2018
14 June 2018
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
8 June 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the International Risk Management Conference, Paris, 8 June 2018
6 June 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Congress of Actuaries, Berlin, 6 June 2018
29 May 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Sabine Lautenschläger, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, Center for Financial Studies Colloquium, Frankfurt, 29 May 2018
17 May 2018
SPEECH
Remarks by Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECB Colloquium on “The Future of Central Banking”, Frankfurt am Main 16-17 May 2018
4 May 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Conference on “Central Banks in Historical Perspective: What Changed After the Financial Crisis?”, organised by the Central Bank of Malta, Valletta, 4 May 2018
3 May 2018
