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Publications on Forward guidance

27 August 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
23 July 2022
THE ECB BLOG
Raising interest rates is a landmark moment on our journey towards lower inflation, writes President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog.
23 May 2022
THE ECB BLOG
As the expected date of interest rate lift-off draws closer, it gets more important to clarify the path of policy normalisation ahead of us – especially given the complex environment that monetary policy in the euro area is facing, says President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog.
31 March 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the International Macroeconomics Chair Banque de France – Paris School of Economics
English
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2 March 2022
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 290
Details
Abstract
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, central banks started being confronted with severe challenges that led to an unprecedented policy response in terms of the size and variety of monetary policy measures. One such measure centred on central banks communicating to the public more explicitly their future policy actions in order to influence expectations. In the case of interest rates, as the standard policy rate approached the effective lower bound, major central banks began providing forward guidance (FG) on interest rates with the intention of lowering expectations of future short-term rates. While FG had been used in certain jurisdictions before the crisis, its prominence in the monetary policy toolkit grew substantially in the aftermath of the crisis. This occasional paper summarises the work carried-out by the Eurosystem Taskforce on the macroeconomic impact of rate forward guidance (FG) in an environment of large central bank balance sheets. The analysis presented covers the period up to February 2020 so the implications of the pandemic as well as the ECB’s strategy review are beyond the scope of the Taskforce’s mandate. The paper describes the analytical challenges associated with assessing rate FG on account of the relative novelty of these policies, the lack of well-established empirical results and the sensitivity of model predictions to the expectations formation process. To overcome and address these challenges, the Taskforce took stock of all the available infrastructure and analysis within in the Eurosystem, and where needed, developed structural and empirical models and approaches to assess the macroeconomic impact of rate FG in an environment of large central bank balance sheets.
JEL Code
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
15 February 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 14 February and published on 15 February
23 November 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Carolynn Look and Alexander Weber on 22 and published on 23 November 2021
19 August 2021
THE ECB BLOG
Our revised forward guidance is a fundamental step in fulfilling our commitment to 2% inflation, writes Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. He also discusses the three conditions that should be met before interest rates are raised.
13 July 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 11 July 2021
26 May 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jun Ishikawa
English
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25 February 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários
21 February 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 2020 US Monetary Policy Forum
11 February 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the financial markets workshop of the Economic Council (Finanzmarktklausur des Wirtschaftsrats der CDU)
English
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12 December 2019
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 12 December 2019
22 November 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress
11 November 2019
SPEECH
Opening remarks by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the “Getting to know the EU Institutions and Organisations in Luxembourg” event
24 October 2019
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 24 October 2019
24 September 2019
SPEECH
Welcome address by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, to the Money Market Contact Group
16 September 2019
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Bloomberg, London, 16 September 2019
Annexes
16 September 2019
SPEECH
12 September 2019
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 12 September 2019
4 September 2019
SPEECH
Keynote lecture by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 50th anniversary conference of The Money, Macro and Finance Research Group, London, 4 September 2019
27 August 2019
SPEECH
Intervention by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECB policy panel of the Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Manchester, 27 August 2019
25 July 2019
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 25 July 2019
1 July 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of Finland conference on Monetary Policy and Future of EMU
6 June 2019
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Vilnius, 6 June 2019
10 April 2019
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 10 April 2019
1 April 2019
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Brussels, 1 April 2019
27 March 2019
SPEECH
Remarks by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at The ECB and Its Watchers XX Conference, Frankfurt am Main, 27 March 2019
18 March 2019
SPEECH
Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at Asociación para el Progreso de la Dirección (APD), Madrid, 18 March 2019
7 March 2019
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 7 March 2019
24 January 2019
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 24 January 2019
13 December 2018
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 13 December 2018
26 November 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, on “Herausforderungen für die Europäische Geldpolitik 2019” at 33. Internationales ZinsForum 2018, Frankfurt am Main, 26 November 2018
13 November 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the UBS Conference, London, 13 November 2018
26 October 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a conference on “Exiting Unconventional Monetary Policies”, organised by the Euro 50 Group, the CF40 forum and CIGI, Paris, 26 October 2018
Annexes
26 October 2018
ANNEX
25 October 2018
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 25 October 2018
15 October 2018
SPEECH
Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Ist Edition of the Prize José Echegaray of elEconomista, Madrid, 15 October 2018
English
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17 September 2018
SPEECH
Presentation by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to the Société Royale d’Economie Politique, Brussels, 17 September 2018
17 September 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, 17 September 2018
Annexes
17 September 2018
ANNEX
13 September 2018
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
26 July 2018
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 26 July 2018
14 June 2018
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
26 April 2018
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 26 April 2018
8 March 2018
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 8 March 2018
23 February 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 2018 US Monetary Policy Forum, New York City, 23 February 2018
Annexes
23 February 2018
ANNEX
8 February 2018
SPEECH
Remarks by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the GIC/SUERF/Deutsche Bundesbank Conference, Frankfurt am Main, 8 February 2018
Annexes
29 January 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Council of the European Union, Brussels, 29 January 2018
25 January 2018
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 25 January 2018