20 September 2022
SPEECH
Karl Otto Pöhl Lecture by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, organised by Frankfurter Gesellschaft für Handel, Industrie und Wissenschaft
15 September 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2720
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the impact of the capital relief package adopted to support euro area banks at the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. By leveraging confidential supervisory and credit register data, we uncover two main findings. First, capital relief measures support banks' capacity to supply credit to firms. Second, not all measures are equally successful. Banks adjust their credit supply only if the capital relief is permanent or implemented through established processes that foresee long release periods. By contrast, discretionary relief measures are met with limited success, possibly owing to the uncertainty surrounding their capital replenishment path. Moreover, requirement releases are more effective for banks with a low capital headroom over requirements and do not trigger additional risk-taking. These findings provide key insights on how to design effective bank capital requirement releases in crisis time.
- JEL Code
- E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
9 September 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2717
- Abstract
- The COVID-19 crisis has affected economic sectors very heterogeneously, with possible risks for permanent losses in some sectors. This paper presents a sectoral-level, bottom-up method to estimate euro area potential output in order to assess the impact of the crisis on it. The estimates are based on a supply-demand shock decomposition and are meant to quantitatively support the estimation of scarring effects stemming from the pandemic. The results show that sectors of “trade, transport and accommodation”, “other services” and “industry” may suffer a loss in trend output of around 1.4-1.6% by 2025. Aggregate potential output in 2025 might be about 0.8% lower than it would have been without the crisis, and importantly, without support from the Next Generation EU (NGEU), signalling somewhat larger losses than embedded in the Autumn 2021 forecast of the European Commission (which takes the NGEU into account).
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
27 August 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
25 August 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Morgane Miel on 13 July 2022 and published on 25 August 2022
22 August 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2716
- Abstract
- We estimate the euro area output gap by applying the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a large Bayesian vector autoregression. Our approach incorporates multivariate information through the inclusion of a wide range of variables in the analysis and addresses data issues associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The estimated output gap lines up well with the CEPR chronology of the business cycle for the euro area and we find that hours worked, more than the unemployment rate, provides the key source of information about labor utilization in the economy, especially in pinning down the depth of the output gap during the COVID-19 recession when the unemployment rate rose only moderately. Our findings suggest that labor market adjustments to the business cycle in the euro area occur more through the intensive, rather than extensive, margin.
- JEL Code
- C18 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Methodological Issues: General
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
9 August 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2703
- Abstract
- Recent research has argued that the COVID-19 shock has also brought about a reallocation shock. We examine the evidence for such an occurrence in the United States, taking a broad perspective. We first consider micro data from CPS and JOLTS; there is no noticeable uptick in occupation or sector switches, nor churn, either at the aggregate level or the cross-section, or when broken down by firms’ size. We then examine whether mismatch unemployment has risen as a result of the pandemic; using an off-the-shelf multisector search and matching model, there is little evidence for an important role for mismatch in driving the elevated unemployment rate. Finally, we employ a novel Bayesian SVAR framework with sign restrictions to identify a reallocation shock; we find that it has played a relatively minor role in explaining labor market patterns in the pandemic, at least relative to its importance in earlier episodes.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J63 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Turnover, Vacancies, Layoffs
29 July 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2690
- Abstract
- How does contagion risk affect the business cycle? We find that the presence of contagion risk significantly alters the transmission of standard macroeconomic shocks. Relative to the first-best equilibrium, the contagion externality significantly reduces the response of output to a technology shock. We also argue that the magnitude of the trade-off between health and the economy crucially depends on how the probability of infection is specified. If the probability of infection only depends on agents’ endogenous choices, a weaker trade-off emerges. In such a framework, and relative to the laissez-faire equilibrium, suboptimal policies such as zero COVID strategies, health insurance, or mandatory testing substantially attenuate recessions that are caused by epidemics. Therefore, policies primarily aimed at preserving public health do not necessarily come at the cost of deeper recessions.
- JEL Code
- E1 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models
H0 : Public Economics→General
I1 : Health, Education, and Welfare→Health
1 July 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the European Parliament’s Innovation Day “The EU in the world created by the Ukraine war”
27 June 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2671
- Abstract
- We build a model to simulate how the euro area market-based financial system may function under stress. The core of the model is a set of representative agents reflecting key economic sectors, which interact in asset, funding, and derivatives markets and face solvency and liquidity constraints on their behaviour. We illustrate the model's behaviour in a two-layer approach. In Layer 1 the deterioration in the outlook for the corporate sector triggers portfolio reallocation by the model's agents. Layer 2 adds a rating downgrade shock where a fraction of investment grade corporate bonds is downgraded to high yield, which creates further rebalancing pressure and price movements. The model predicts (i) asset flows (buying and selling of marketable securities) across agents and (ii) balance sheet losses. It also provides quantitative evidence on equilibrium effects of the macroprudential regulation of nonbanks, which we illustrate by varying investment fund cash buffers.
- JEL Code
- G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
16 June 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Dein Spiegel on 19 May 2022
15 June 2022
PRESS RELEASE
14 June 2022
SPEECH
Commencement speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to the graduates of the Master Program in Money, Banking, Finance and Insurance of the Panthéon-Sorbonne University
13 June 2022
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 17
- Abstract
- Macroprudential stress testing has provided timely policy assessment to tackle high levels of uncertainty about future developments during the COVID-19 pandemic and to back communications promoting the use of macroprudential capital buffers by banks. The lessons learned from the crisis can inform the setting of buffers along the path to policy normalisation.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
25 May 2022
PRESS RELEASE
25 May 2022
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
25 May 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a policy lecture hosted by the SAFE Policy Center at Goethe University and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
23 May 2022
THE ECB BLOG
As the expected date of interest rate lift-off draws closer, it gets more important to clarify the path of policy normalisation ahead of us – especially given the complex environment that monetary policy in the euro area is facing, says President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog.
19 May 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 20th annual symposium on “Building the financial system of the 21st century: an agenda for Europe and the United States” organised by the Program on International Financial Systems and Harvard Law School (by videoconference)
19 May 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2664
- Abstract
- This paper documents a durable increase in the cross-sectoral dispersion of earnings expectations during the COVID-19 crisis. The rise in dispersion of earnings forecasts can be explained by the introduction of lockdown measures, which had a particularly adverse impact on the travel sector. Accordingly, in terms of earnings expectations, countries that are relatively independent of the travel sector were least affected by a tightening of lockdowns. At the same time, vaccinations have been a game changer: more stringent lockdown measures added far less to the cross-sectoral dispersion in earnings expectations once vaccines started to be rolled out in late 2020. Going forward, the dispersion in earnings expectations continues to stand at elevated levels.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
7 May 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Miha Jenko and published on 7 May 2022
5 May 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Bruegel
3 May 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jan Mallien and Frank Wiebe on 29 April 2022
28 April 2022
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament
28 April 2022
ANNUAL REPORT
21 April 2022
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-fifth meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
21 April 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow and Alessandra Migliaccio on 20 April 2022
14 April 2022
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 14 April 2022
14 April 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
14 April 2022
PODCAST
6 April 2022
SPEECH
Lectio Magistralis by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, on the occasion of the conferral of an honorary degree in Law by the University of Cassino and Southern Lazio
6 April 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Joint conference of the ECB and the European Commission on European financial integration
30 March 2022
SPEECH
Speech by President Christine Lagarde at an event organised by the Central Bank of Cyprus
28 March 2022
PRESS RELEASE
24 March 2022
PRESS RELEASE
24 March 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, The Institute of International & European Affairs webinar
17 March 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at “The ECB and Its Watchers XXII” conference
14 March 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2656
- Abstract
- Regarding a prospective reform of the European Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) it seems rather consensual that a simplified framework should take account of the prevailing macroeconomic context and enhance the balancing of sustainability and stabilisation considerations. This paper provides simulation analysis for the euro area and individual countries with a view to assessing the short- and longer-term budgetary and macroeconomic implications of a move to a two-tier system with an expenditure growth rule as single operational indicator linked to a debt anchor. Compared to the status quo, our analysis suggests that expenditure growth targets which take account of the ECB’s symmetric 2% inflation target can improve the cyclical properties of the framework. Fiscal policy would be tighter when inflation is above the target but looser when inflation is below target, resulting in a better synchronisation of fiscal and monetary policies. Providing additional fiscal accommodation in a low inflation environment would enable monetary policy to operate more effectively especially in the vicinity of the effective lower bound. The link to a longer-term debt anchor at the same time ensures a transition towards the Treaty’s debt reference level.
- JEL Code
- E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
H60 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→General
10 March 2022
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 10 March 2022
10 March 2022
COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
10 March 2022
PODCAST
24 February 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a virtual policy panel on “Unwinding QE” at the first annual Bank of England Agenda for Research (BEAR) conference
16 February 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2644
- Abstract
- While regulatory capital buffers are expected to be drawn to absorb losses and meet credit demand during crises, this paper shows that banks were unwilling to do so during the pandemic. To the contrary, banks engaged in forms of pro-cyclical behaviour to preserve capital ratios. By employing granular data from the credit register of the European System of Central Banks, we isolate credit supply effects and find that banks with little headroom above regulatory buffers reduced their lending relative to other banks, also when controlling for a broad range of pandemic support measures. Firms’ inability to reallocate their credit needs to less constrained banks had real economic effects, as their headcount went down, although state guarantee schemes acted as partial mitigants. These findings point to some unintended effects of the capital framework which may create incentives for pro-cyclical behaviour by banks during downturns. They also shed light on the interactions between fiscal and prudential policies which took place during the pandemic.
- JEL Code
- E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
16 February 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2643
- Abstract
- This paper introduces the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES), a new online, high frequency panel survey of euro area consumers’ expectations and behaviour. The paper also investigates whether public perceptions about fiscal support measures introduced during the pandemic have influenced spending behaviour. We show that simple and factual information treatments about government support policies that are communicated to random subsets of respondents can help improve consumers’ perceptions about the adequacy of fiscal interventions relative to the perceptions of an untreated control group. We find evidence that this improvement in beliefs has a causal effect on consumer spending, in particular raising spending on large items like holidays and cars. Moreover, we show that such beliefs also influence household expectations about own income prospects, future access to credit and financial sentiment, while they do not affect expectations about future taxes, implying no evidence of Ricardian effects in household behaviour. We find that perceptions affect spending also among households that did not receive any government support, suggesting that fiscal interventions can have broader consequences as they influence the behaviour of groups beyond the targeted ones.
- JEL Code
- D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
H31 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Household
10 February 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB at the London School of Economics German Symposium
25 January 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Emilis Linge and Dalius Simenas
14 January 2022
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the meeting of the Conference of Parliamentary Committees for Union Affairs of the Parliaments of the European Union (COSAC)
12 January 2022
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 289
- Abstract
- Global value chains (GVCs) have shaped the dynamics of globalisation in recent years. This paper reviews key concepts and tools to measure countries’ involvement in GVCs, explores recent trends and investigates the underlying drivers of GVC participation empirically. The analysis in the paper finds that in the last decade, GVCs have undergone an important transformation, with participation falling on the back of rising trade costs and the trade integration of some large emerging market economies slowing, while the role of recent technological developments remains unclear. In addition, supply chains appear to have become increasingly regional over time. The paper also offers an insight into the role of production chain linkages in the transmission of recent global shocks across countries, uncovering important amplification effects on trade and activity. Finally, it discusses future prospects for GVCs and global trade, including in the light of developments associated with the coronavirus pandemic.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
7 January 2022
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Robert Shortt on 7 January and published on 7 January 2022
22 December 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert on 16 December and published on 22 December
12 December 2021
PRESS RELEASE
30 November 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit, Édouard Lederer and Thibaut Madelin on 24 November and published on 30 November
29 November 2021
SPEECH
Lectio Magistralis by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei
17 November 2021
PRESS RELEASE
17 November 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
15 November 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB at the 24th Euro Finance Week
15 November 2021
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
15 November 2021
SPEECH
15 November 2021
SPEECH
8 November 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Lluís Pellícer on 3 November 2021
3 November 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, on the occasion of the 175th anniversary of Banco de Portugal in Lisbon
28 October 2021
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 28 October 2021
16 October 2021
SPEECH
2021 Per Jacobsson Lecture by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the IMF Annual Meetings
14 October 2021
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-fourth meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
11 October 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2603
- Abstract
- This paper analyses the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic shock on small open economies in a monetary union with an application to the euro area. Accounting for a high degree of openness and a strong dependence on intra and extra union trade, we focus on the size and the direction of international spillovers - both from the shock itself and from the ensuing fiscal response. To do so, we use a unified modelling framework: The Euro Area and the Global Economy (EAGLE) model. Furthermore, within this general framework, we assess the extent to which specific modelling features shape the dynamic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. The main messages are as follows. First, fiscal spillovers from the rest of the monetary union do matter. Second, the effective lower bound amplifies the size of the spillovers. Third, the design of wage negotiations leads to wage subsidies having negative international fiscal policy spillovers. Fourth, import content of government spending interacts with the effective lower bound, strongly affecting the size and sign of spillovers. Fifth, when households have finite lifetimes, the responses of output and inflation are amplified compared to the case with infinitely lived households. Finally, a next generation EU instrument is more effective when financed using a tax on consumption.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
7 October 2021
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Central Bank of Ireland webinar "The importance of data"
7 October 2021
SPEECH
Welcome address by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2021”
7 October 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2599
- Abstract
- Prospective economic developments depend on the behavior of consumer spending. A key question is whether private expenditures recover once social distancing restrictions are lifted or whether the COVID-19 crisis has a sustained impact on consumer confidence, p references, and, hence, spending. The elongated and profound experience of the COVID-19 crisis may durably affect consumer preferences. We conducted a representative consumer survey in five European countries in summer 2020, after the release of the first wave’s lockdown restrictions, and document the underlying reasons for households’ reduction in consumption in five key sectors: tourism, hospitality, services, retail, and public transports. We identify a large confidence shock in the Southern European countries and a shift in consumer preferences in the Northern European countries, particularly among high-income earners. We conclude that the COVID-19 experience has altered consumer behavior and that long-term sectoral consumption shifts may occur.
- JEL Code
- D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
E71 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
G51 : Financial Economics
H30 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→General
5 October 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at Wirtschaftsinitiative FrankfurtRheinMain e.V.
1 October 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conference on “Implications of Federal Reserve Actions in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic”
30 September 2021
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the sixth meeting of the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures (ECRB)
28 September 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at ECB Forum on Central Banking "Beyond the pandemic: the future of monetary policy"
24 September 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Annette Weisbach, CNBC, on 23 September
23 September 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2589
- Abstract
- We explore the ties between bonds and individual dealers formed through home advantage and the persistence of previous underwriting relationships. Building on these connections, we show that the introduction of the leverage ratio for the European banks had a large impact on exposed bonds’ liquidity. Moreover, based on these ties, we show that bond mutual fund panic following the 2020 pandemic outbreak affected substantially more mutual funds with the larger exposures to dealer banks’ balance sheet constraints.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
20 September 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Annual Conference of Latvijas Banka on "Sustainable Economy in Times of Change"
16 September 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by David Rubenstein, Bloomberg, on 13 September
15 September 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bond Market Contact Group meeting
13 September 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, 148th Baden-Baden Entrepreneurs’ Talk
1 September 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, on 30 August 2021
1 September 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Miquel Roig and Jorge Zuloaga on 26 August and published on 1 September 2021
24 August 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Annual Congress of the European Economic Association (EEA)
29 July 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Frank Wiebe and Jan Mallien
29 July 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 259
- Abstract
- In the light of fears that the SARS-CoV-2 virus might be transmitted via cash – fears that were stoked by statements in the media and from public authorities – this paper aims to address the following issues: (1) to provide a descriptive account of the change in the circulation of euro banknotes and the use of cash in transactions during the pandemic; and (2) to assess the survivability of the virus on cash and the potential transmission risks. The pandemic has caused a significant increase in demand for cash as a store of value but a decrease in the use of cash in transactions. Although citizens reported using cash less in transactions partly out of fear of infection, research confirms that the risk of the virus being transmitted by banknotes and coins is very low. This supports the findings from the scientific community concluding that SARS-CoV-2 mainly spreads via respiratory fluids and airborne transmission, and that surfaces play a very minor role.
- JEL Code
- I10 : Health, Education, and Welfare→Health→General
I12 : Health, Education, and Welfare→Health→Health Production
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- Network
- Eurosystem Research Network on Cash (EURECA)
29 July 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Federico Fubini
27 July 2021
THE ECB BLOG
If we make the recovery fund work and if we embed the lessons from the pandemic in the EMU governance framework, we can emerge from the crisis with a stronger economy and greater social and political cohesion, says Executive Board member Fabio Panetta in The ECB Blog.
22 July 2021
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 22 July 2021
3 July 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Petersberger Sommerdialog
2 July 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie Cécile Berenger
29 June 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Brussels Economic Forum 2021
28 June 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Frankfurt Euro Finance Summit
28 June 2021
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Conference of the Governors of Mediterranean Central Banks on “Central banks at the frontline of the COVID-19 crisis: weathering the storm, spurring the recovery”
24 June 2021
SPEECH
Guest lecture by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the School of Economics and Management, University of Cyprus
22 June 2021
SPEECH
Lecture by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Athens University of Economic and Business
18 June 2021
PRESS RELEASE
17 June 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Paul Gordon on 17 June 2021
15 June 2021
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Deutsche Bundesbank’s 5th International Cash Conference – “Cash in times of turmoil”
14 June 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Johanna Treeck and Florian Eder on 11 June 2021 in Frankfurt
10 June 2021
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 10 June 2021
2 June 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, on the occasion of the awarding of the Prix Turgot 2021, Paris
1 June 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2563
- Abstract
- By focusing on the cost conditions at issuance, I find that not only the Covid-19 pandemic effects were different across bonds and firms at different stages, but also that the market composition was significantly affected, collapsing on investment-grade bonds, a segment in which the share of bonds eligible to the ECB corporate programmes strikingly increased from 15% to 40%. Contemporaneously, the high-yield segment shrunk to almost disappear at 4%. Another source of risk detected in the pricing mechanism is the weak resilience to pandemic: the premium requested is around 30 bp and started to be priced only after the early containment actions taken by the national authorities. On the contrary, I do not find evidence supporting an increased risk for corporations headquartered in countries with a reduced fiscal space, nor the existence of a premium in favour of green bonds, which should be the backbone of a possible “green recovery”.
- JEL Code
- G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
1 June 2021
PRESS RELEASE
1 June 2021
SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA
31 May 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2561
- Abstract
- We decompose euro area sovereign bond yields into five distinct components: i) expected future short-term risk-free rates and a term premium, ii) default risk premium, iii) redenomination risk premium, iv) liquidity risk premium, and a v) segmentation (convenience) premium. Identification is achieved by considering sovereign bond yields jointly with other rates, including sovereign credit default swap spreads with and without redenomination as a credit event feature. We apply our framework to study the impact of European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy and European Union (E.U.) fiscal policy announcements during the Covid-19 pandemic recession. We find that both monetary and fiscal policy announcements had a pronounced effect on yields, mostly through default, redenomination, and segmentation premia. While the ECB's unconventional monetary policy announcements benefited some (vulnerable) countries more than others, owing to unprecedented flexibility in implementing bond purchases, the E.U.’s fiscal policy announcements lowered yields more uniformly.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
- Network
- Research Task Force (RTF)
26 May 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2558
- Abstract
- We document the impact of COVID-19 on frequently employed time series models, with a focus on euro area inflation. We show that for both single equation models (Phillips curves) and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) estimated parameters change notably with the pandemic. In a VAR, allowing the errors to have a distribution with fatter tails than the Gaussian one equips the model to better deal with the COVID-19 shock. A standard Gaussian VAR can still be used for producing conditional forecasts when relevant off-model information is used. We illustrate this by conditioning on official projections for a set of variables, but also by tilting to expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. For Phillips curves, averaging across many conditional forecasts in a thick modelling framework offers some hedge against parameter instability.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
21 May 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 257
- Abstract
- This paper looks at the impact of mitigation policies implemented by supervisory and macroprudential authorities as well as national governments in the euro area during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic to support lending to the real economy. The impact assessment concerns joint, and individual, effect of supervisory measures introduced by the ECB Banking Supervision, a reduction in macroprudential buffers put forward by national macroprudential authorities, and public moratoria and guarantee schemes. The analysis has been conducted in the first half of 2020, in a situation of high uncertainty about how the crisis will develop in the future. Against this backdrop, it proposes a method of addressing such uncertainty by assessing the impact of policies across a full range of scenarios. We find that the supervisory, macroprudential and government policies should have helped to maintain higher lending to the non-financial private sector (around 5% higher than lending in the absence of policy measures) and, in particular, to non-financial corporations (12% higher than lending in the absence of policy measures), preventing further amplification of the recession via the banking sector. The national and supervisory and macroprudential actions have reinforced each other, and have been jointly able to affect a broader share of the banking sector.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
19 May 2021
PRESS RELEASE
19 May 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
10 May 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert and Marie Charrel
3 May 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, conducted by Tonia Mastrobuoni on 27 April 2021
29 April 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gabriel Mellqvist on 29 April 2021
28 April 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview on Twitter with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 28 April 2021
26 April 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the European Statistical Forum (virtual)
22 April 2021
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 22 April 2021
14 April 2021
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
14 April 2021
ANNUAL REPORT
14 April 2021
OTHER PUBLICATION
12 April 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Sara Eisen on 9 April 2021 and broadcast on the same day
11 April 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Luis Doncel and published on 11 April 2021
9 April 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Tim Bartz and Stefan Kaiser on 1 April and published on 9 April 2021, in print on 10 April 2021
8 April 2021
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-third meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
1 April 2021
THE ECB BLOG
The recent volatility of inflation can largely be attributed to the nature of the pandemic shock, writes Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. The increase in inflation during early 2021 does not constitute the basis for a sustained shift in inflation dynamics.
25 March 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at NYU Stern Fireside Chat
23 March 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Annette Weisbach on 22 March 2021
22 March 2021
THE ECB BLOG
Our pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) has provided crucial support to euro area citizens since its launch a year ago, writes President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog. The PEPP has been, and remains, at the core of our pandemic policy response.
19 March 2021
OTHER PUBLICATION
18 March 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the High-level conference on “Strengthening the EU’s bank crisis management and deposit insurance framework: for a more resilient and efficient banking union” organised by the European Commission
18 March 2021
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
17 March 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit, Elsa Conesa, Lucie Robequain and Sophie Rolland
16 March 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold
11 March 2021
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 11 March 2021
8 March 2021
THE ECB BLOG
One year into the pandemic, we can clearly see that the social and economic impact of the virus is particularly hard for women, writes President Christine Lagarde. In response we must choose to challenge women’s roles at home, at work and in our society.
2 March 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an online event organised by Bocconi University
2 March 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank (ECB), conducted by Sérgio Aníbal
1 March 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the “Jahresimpuls Mittelstand 2021” of Bundesverband Mittelständische Wirtschaft
1 March 2021
SPEECH
Panel contribution by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Banque de France / Sciences Po Financial Stability Review Conference 2021 “Is macroprudential policy resilient to the pandemic?”
26 February 2021
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Third Annual Conference organised by the European Fiscal Board on “High Debt, Low Rates and Tail Events: Rules-Based Fiscal Frameworks under Stress”
26 February 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 22 February
25 February 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários
25 February 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Ingūna Ukenābele on 22 February 2021
22 February 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the opening plenary session of the European Parliamentary Week 2021 in virtual format
22 February 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2528
- Abstract
- The paper provides an ex-post analysis of the determinants of within-country regional heterogeneity of the labour market impact of COVID-19. By focussing on the first wave of the pandemic in the four largest euro area economies, it finds that the propagation of the economic impact across regions cannot be explained by the spread of infections only. Instead, a region’s economic structure is a significant driver of the observed heterogeneity. Moreover, our results suggest that a region's trade relations, both within and across countries, represent a relevant indirect channel through which COVID-19 related disruptions affect regional economic activity. In this regard, the analysis depicts vulnerabilities arising from potential disruptions of the highly integrated EU supply chains.
- JEL Code
- R11 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
J40 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Particular Labor Markets→General
R15 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Econometric and Input?Output Models, Other Models
18 February 2021
SPEECH
Guest lecture by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business
8 February 2021
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the plenary session of the European Parliament
7 February 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie-Pierre Gröndahl and Hervé Gattegno
4 February 2021
PRESS RELEASE
31 January 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Markus Zydra on 26 January and published on 1 February 2021 as a shortened version in Süddeutsche Zeitung
31 January 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Klemens Kindermann on 29 January 2021 and published on 31 January 2021
28 January 2021
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the LSE conference on “Financial Cycles, Risk, Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences”
28 January 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 255
- Abstract
- In response to the economic fallout from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the European Council agreed on the Next Generation EU (NGEU) instrument. NGEU allows the European Commission to issue debt to finance grants and loans to EU Member States, with the disbursement of funds intended to be weighted towards the countries most affected by the crisis. This paper assesses the macroeconomic impact on the euro area of different uses of NGEU, using a large dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the euro area and global economy (EAGLE) that has been adapted to reflect the modalities of the NGEU instrument. Three uses of NGEU loans and grants are explored: (i) productive public investment, (ii) unproductive government spending, and (iii) replacing or repaying existing sovereign debt. The EAGLE results are cross-checked with a semi-structural model (ECB-BASE) and with the basic model elasticities (BMEs) of the forecasting models in use in the national central banks of the Eurosystem.
- JEL Code
- C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
F54 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→Colonialism, Imperialism, Postcolonialism
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
27 January 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Elena Laskari on 26 January 2021
25 January 2021
SPEECH
Panel contribution by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Lámfalussy Lectures E-Conference 2021 organised by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank
25 January 2021
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament
25 January 2021
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 50th anniversary of the Associazione Italiana per l’Analisi Finanziaria (by videoconference)
12 January 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andras Szigètvari on 7 January 2021 und published on 12 January 2021
11 January 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2510
- Abstract
- This paper develops Bayesian econometric methods for posterior inference in non-parametric mixed frequency VARs using additive regression trees. We argue that regression tree models are ideally suited for macroeconomic nowcasting in the face of extreme observations, for instance those produced by the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. This is due to their flexibility and ability to model outliers. In an application involving four major euro area countries, we find substantial improvements in nowcasting performance relative to a linear mixed frequency VAR.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
18 December 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2507
- Abstract
- Using new panel data from a representative survey of households in the six largest euro area economies, the paper estimates the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on consumption. The panel provides, each month, household-specific indicators of the concern about finances due to Covid-19 from the first peak of the pandemic until October 2020. The results show that this concern causes a significant reduction in non-durable consumption. The paper also explores the potential impact on consumption of government interventions and of another wave of Covid-19, using household-level consumption adjustments to scenarios that involve positive and negative income shocks. Fears of the financial consequences of the pandemic induce a significant reduction in the marginal propensity to consume, an effect consistent with models of precautionary saving and liquidity constraints. The results are robust to endogeneity concerns through use of panel fixed effects and partial identification methods, which account also for time-varying unobservable variables, and provide informative identification regions of the average treatment effect of the concern for Covid-19 under weak assumptions.
- JEL Code
- D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
G51 : Financial Economics
H31 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Household
17 December 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2505
- Abstract
- This paper develops a novel indicator of global economic activity, the GEA Tracker, which is based on commodity prices selected recursively through a genetic algorithm. The GEA Tracker allows for daily real-time knowledge of international business conditions using a minimum amount of information. We find that the GEA Tracker outperforms its competitors in forecasting stock returns, especially in emerging markets, and in predicting standard indicators of international business conditions. We show that an investor would have inexorably profited from using the forecasts provided by the GEA Tracker to weight a portfolio. Finally, the GEA Tracker allows us to present the daily evolution of global economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- JEL Code
- F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
16 December 2020
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the fifth meeting of the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures
14 December 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Rome Investment Forum 2020
10 December 2020
PRESS RELEASE
10 December 2020
PRESS RELEASE
10 December 2020
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 10 December 2020
2 December 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balázs Korányi on 1 December 2020
1 December 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow, Carolynn Look and Alexander Weber on 30 November 2020
28 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Petri Sajari on 24 November 2020
27 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by João Silvestre on 19 November 2020
26 November 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Economics Department and IM-TCD, Trinity College Dublin
25 November 2020
PRESS RELEASE
25 November 2020
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
25 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 23 November 2020
24 November 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at The Bank of Finland Monetary Policy webinar: New Challenges to Monetary Policy Strategies
24 November 2020
PRESS RELEASE
24 November 2020
SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA
23 November 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Money Markets
22 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit, Elsa Conesa and Sophie Rolland
20 November 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the European Banking Congress
19 November 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Financial Stability Conference on “Stress, Contagion, and Transmission” organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Office of Financial Research
19 November 2020
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
17 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Maria Nobre, broadcast on Tuesday, 17 November at 12:00 a.m. CET
16 November 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 23rd EURO FINANCE WEEK
12 November 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the CIRSF (Research Centre on Regulation and Supervision of the Financial Sector, Portugal) online Annual International Conference 2020 on Major Trends in Financial Regulation
11 November 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECB Forum on Central Banking
4 November 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the second EBI Policy Conference on “Europe and the Covid-19 Crisis – Looking back and looking forward”
4 November 2020
SPEECH
Transcript of Q&A session following a fireside chat with Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at an online UBS event on the European economic and policy outlook, conducted on 30 October 2020
3 November 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jan Mallien and Frank Wiebe
2 November 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the ESCB Legal Conference
29 October 2020
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 29 Oktober 2020
29 October 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
20 October 2020
THE ECB BLOG
High-quality data and statistics provide indispensable input for sound policy decisions, including at the ECB, writes Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. Today’s World Statistics Day reminds us of the importance of data we can trust.
19 October 2020
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the MNI Connect Roundtable
19 October 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie Charrel and Eric Albert
18 October 2020
SPEECH
Contribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, during the session “Rebuilding and Sustaining Growth”
17 October 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eirini Chrysolora
15 October 2020
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-second meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
11 October 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Tom Fairless on 8 October
10 October 2020
INTERVIEW
Contribution by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
8 October 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Conference “The Werner Report, 50 Years on”, organised by the Luxembourg Centre for Contemporary and Digital History in cooperation with EUI Florence
7 October 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
7 October 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2478
- Abstract
- Throughout the covid‐19 emergency, health authorities have presented contagion data divided by administrative regions with no reference to the type of landscape, environment or development model. This study has been conducted to understand whether there is a correlation between the number of infections and the different rural landscapes of the country. Italy’s rural landscape can be classified in four types, according to the intensity of energy inputs used in the agricultural process, socioeconomic and environmental features. Type A includes areas of periurban agriculture surrounding the metropolitan cities, type B areas of intensive agriculture with high concentration of agroindustry, type C hilly areas with highly diversified agriculture and valuable landscape, and type D high hills and mountains with forests and protected areas. Areas A and B are located in the plains, covering 21% of the territory and accounting for 57% of the population. They produce most of the added value, consume high levels of energy and represent the main source of pollution. Areas C and D cover 79% of the territory and 43% of the population. We find that provinces with 10% more type C and D areas exhibit on average 10% fewer cases of contagion. The result is statistically significant, after controlling for demographic, economic and environmental characteristics of the provinces. The pollution produced in more energy‐intensive landscape has triggered an intense debate of how to ensure the economic competitiveness of Italian agriculture, without compromising environmental integrity or public health. Our findings speak to this debate, by suggesting that planning for more rural territory with lower energy inputs may come with the added benefit of new development opportunities and decreasing the exposure of the population to covid‐19. . Cost benefit‐analyses should take into account that policies aimed at repopulating more rural areas may reduce the economic impact of covid‐19 and of potential future pandemics.
- JEL Code
- Q1 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Agriculture
Q15 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Agriculture→Land Ownership and Tenure, Land Reform, Land Use, Irrigation, Agriculture and Environment
O13 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Agriculture, Natural Resources, Energy, Environment, Other Primary Products
6 October 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 62nd NABE Annual Meeting “Global Reset? Economics, Business, and Policy in the Pandemic”
5 October 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2475
- Abstract
- We estimate a modified version of the “Financial Business Cycles” model originally developed by Iacoviello (2015) in order to investigate the role played by financial factors in driving the business cycle in the euro area. In the model, financial shocks such as borrower defaults, collateral shocks and credit supply effects amplify economic downturns by reducing the flow of credit from banks to the real sector. In this novel application to the euro area, we introduce capital reallocation inefficiency, an innovation to the original set-up which allows for more realistic effects of entrepreneur defaults on economic activity. Our results suggest that financial factors, as captured by this model, played a smaller role in the euro area throughout the double-dip recession than in the United States during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. In a scenario on second-round effects implied by potential NFC loan losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we find large financial amplification risks to real economic activity.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
28 September 2020
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
28 September 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the European Sustainable Finance Summit, Frankfurt am Main
23 September 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Paul Gordon and Carolynn Look
22 September 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the meeting of the ECB Money Market Contact Group
21 September 2020
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly, 21 September 2020
20 September 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Jesús Rivasés on 14 September 2020
18 September 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the panel discussion “Verteilung der Lasten der Pandemie” (“Sharing the burden of the pandemic”), Deutscher Juristentag 2020
18 September 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2468
- Abstract
- We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across different models, extending the model specification by adding MA terms, enhancing the estimation method by taking a similarity approach, and adjusting the forecasts to put them back on track by a specific form of intercept correction. Among all these methods, adjusting the original nowcasts and forecasts by an amount similar to the nowcast and forecast errors made during the financial crisis and following recovery seems to produce the best results for the US, notwithstanding the different source and characteristics of the financial crisis. In particular, the adjusted growth nowcasts for 2020Q1 get closer to the actual value, and the adjusted forecasts based on alternative indicators become much more similar, all unfortunately indicating a much slower recovery than without adjustment and very persistent negative effects on trend growth. Similar findings emerge also for the other G7 countries.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
17 September 2020
PRESS RELEASE
16 September 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jean-Philippe Lacour
15 September 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 24th Economist Roundtable with the Government of Greece
13 September 2020
SPEECH
Contribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB during the session “Economic, financial and monetary impact of COVID-19 pandemic, and post-crisis options for policies and tools”
11 September 2020
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Eurofi Financial Forum in Berlin
11 September 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2466
- Abstract
- We characterise the distribution of expected GDP growth during the Great Influenza Pandemic (known also as Spanish Flu) using a non-linear method in a country panel setting. We show that there are non-negligible risks of large GDP losses with the 5% left tail of the distribution suggesting a drop in the typical country's real per capita GDP equal to 29.1% in 1918, 10.9% in 1919 and 3.6% in 1920. Moreover, the fall in per capita GDP after the Spanish FLu was on average particularly large in low-income countries. Particularly, the size of the GDP drop in the lower tail of the distributions is high for higher income countries and immense for lower income countries. As for the United States, the estimated size of the recession in the lower tail of the distribution following the Spanish Flu is not negligible.
- JEL Code
- E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
I0 : Health, Education, and Welfare→General
11 September 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2465
- Abstract
- This study analyses the policy measures taken in the euro area in response to the outbreak and the escalating diffusion of new coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. We focus on monetary, microprudential and macroprudential policies designed specifically to support bank lending conditions. For identification, we use proprietary data on participation in central bank liquidity operations, high-frequency reactions to monetary policy announcements, and confidential supervisory information on bank capital requirements. The results show that in the absence of the funding cost relief and capital relief associated with the pandemic response measures, banks’ ability to supply credit would have been severely affected. The results also indicate that the coordinated intervention by monetary and prudential authorities amplified the effects of the individual measures in supporting liquidity conditions and helping to sustain the flow of credit to the private sector. Finally, we investigate the potential real effects of the joint pandemic response measures by estimating the adjustment in labour input variables for firms that in the past have been more exposed to similar policies. We find that, in absence of monetary and prudential policies, the pandemic would lead to a significantly larger decline in firms’ employment.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
11 September 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Centre for European Reform and the Eurofi Financial Forum on “Is the current ECB monetary policy doing more harm than good and what are the alternatives?”
10 September 2020
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 10 September 2020
10 September 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
2 September 2020
THE ECB BLOG
The coronavirus crisis makes progress on capital markets union even more important, write Luis de Guindos, Fabio Panetta and Isabel Schnabel. In the light of the European Commission’s forthcoming Action Plan, they outline priority areas for reform to foster European capital markets.
28 August 2020
PRESS RELEASE
27 August 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Steve Liesman on 27 August 2020 and broadcast on 27 August 2020
27 August 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City “Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy”
26 August 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2461
- Abstract
- This paper illustrates how to handle a sequence of extreme observations—such as those recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic—when estimating a Vector Autoregression, which is the most popular time-series model in macroeconomics. Our results show that the ad-hoc strategy of dropping these observations may be acceptable for the purpose of parameter estimation. However, disregarding these recent data is inappropriate for forecasting the future evolution of the economy, because it vastly underestimates uncertainty.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
19 August 2020
THE ECB BLOG
The ECB’s swap and repo lines are essential stabilising tools in the coronavirus crisis. In a joint Blog post, Executive Board members Fabio Panetta and Isabel Schnabel explain how these tools reduce funding risks, prevent financial contagion and support the euro’s use in global transactions.
18 August 2020
PRESS RELEASE
18 August 2020
PRESS RELEASE
12 August 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2453
- Abstract
- Monitoring economic conditions in real time, or nowcasting, is among the key tasks routinely performed by economists. Nowcasting entails some key challenges, which also characterise modern Big Data analytics, often referred to as the three \Vs": the large number of time series continuously released (Volume), the complexity of the data covering various sectors of the economy, published in an asynchronous way and with different frequencies and precision (Variety), and the need to incorporate new information within minutes of their release (Velocity). In this paper, we explore alternative routes to bring Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models up to these challenges. We find that BVARs are able to effectively handle the three Vs and produce, in real time, accurate probabilistic predictions of US economic activity and, in addition, a meaningful narrative by means of scenario analysis.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C01 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→General→Econometrics
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
4 August 2020
THE ECB BLOG
While there has been some rebound in economic activity, the level of economic slack remains extraordinarily high and the outlook highly uncertain, writes Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. Progress in containing the virus will be central in determining the size and speed of the recovery.
31 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, conducted by Dominique Lecoq and Marc Aubault on 29 July and published on 31 July
27 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
- Abstract
- The world economy is facing an unprecedented shock, and as the impact of the pandemic unfolds, world trade will be hit particularly hard. Global value chain linkages are likely to magnify the impact. This box assesses the effects of disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and provides estimates of the impact on world trade. We find that GVC spillovers could significantly amplify the decline in world trade.
- JEL Code
- F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
27 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Tonia Mastrobuoni and published on 27 July 2020
26 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Casimiro García Abadillo on 21 July 2020 and published on 26 July 2020
23 July 2020
THE ECB BLOG
Learning the lessons of the past, Europe has moved towards a new model for dealing with crises, writes President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog. We have shown that we can act quickly, adapt our institutions and lay the groundwork for forging a new Europe.
23 July 2020
PRESS RELEASE
23 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Video interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted live by David Ignatius on 22 July 2020
22 July 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 18th annual symposium on “Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: an Agenda for Europe and the United States” organised by the Program on International Financial Systems and Harvard Law School (by videoconference)
21 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 16 July and published on 21 July 2020
20 July 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2446
- Abstract
- This paper provides novel information on the propagation of the pandemic-induced real shock to firms’ financial conditions. It uses firm-level survey data from end February to early April 2020 for a large sample of euro area SMEs and large firms. Firms’ expectations on the availability of credit lines, bank loans and trade credit deteriorated significantly in the first half of March. Firms mostly expected to be affected if they had previously difficulties in securing finance, had higher indebtedness and, hence, less capacity to deal with a liquidity shock. Conditional on these factors, firm size does not seem to matter, except for trade credit, in which case SMEs had more positive conditional expectations. Together with the overall deterioration of expectations, there seems to have also been a reallocation of opportunities to access finance amidst the crisis. Small firms were more likely to have conditional expectations of improvement in their access to finance.
- JEL Code
- C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
L25 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
17 July 2020
PRESS RELEASE
17 July 2020
PRESS RELEASE
17 July 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a virtual roundtable on “Sustainable Crisis Responses in Europe” organised by the INSPIRE research network, 17 July 2020
17 July 2020
PRESS RELEASE
17 July 2020
SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
16 July 2020
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 16 July 2020
16 July 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
13 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Transcript of an interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, with ARD “plusminus”, conducted by Markus Gürne on 8 July 2020
13 July 2020
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a meeting of the Euro Accession Countries Working Group of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
8 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Video interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Roula Khalaf on 7 July 2020 and posted on 8 July 2020
7 July 2020
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Meeting with Members of the European Parliament
2 July 2020
SPEECH
Presentation by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Berlin Economic Roundtable
2 July 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2436
- Abstract
- We show that financial variables contribute to the forecast of GDP growth during the Great Recession, providing additional insights on both first and higher moments of the GDP growth distribution. If a recession is due to an unforeseen shock (such as the Covid-19 recession), financial variables serve policymakers in providing timely warnings about the severity of the crisis and the macroeconomic risk involved, because downside risks increase as financial stress and corporate spreads become tighter. We use quantile regression and the skewed t-distribution and evaluate the forecasting properties of models using out-of-sample metrics with real-time vintages.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
1 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balázs Korányi, Francesco Canepa and Frank Siebelt
1 July 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta at a Capital Markets webinar organised by the European Investment Bank and the European Stability Mechanism
1 July 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Marco Zatterin on 26 June 2020 and published on 1 July 2020
29 June 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2431
- Abstract
- This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and makes a first step in adapting the central bank modelling apparatus to the new economic landscape. We augment the ECB-BASE model with the predictive dynamics of the SIR model in order to assess the interplay between epidemiological fundamentals, containment policies and the macroeconomy. Containment policies considerably reduce the share of infected and deceased people, but generate a sharp decline in economic activity. Barring the materialization of amplification risks, the induced recession may remain broadly V-shaped under targeted confinement policies. By comparison, a "laissez-faire" approach to the pandemic emergency can even inflict in some cases higher long-term economic costs. Nevertheless, the depth of the recession and the speed of the recovery (if at all) crucially depend on the magnitude and persistence of the supply-side retrenchment, as well as on the risk of macro-financial feedback loops.
- JEL Code
- E1 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
I1 : Health, Education, and Welfare→Health
28 June 2020
THE ECB BLOG
Our crisis measures respond to the worst economic crisis in the post-war period, says Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. They are necessary, suitable and proportionate and benefit all European citizens.
27 June 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Petersberger Sommerdialog
25 June 2020
SPEECH
Remarks by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee Webinar Series
25 June 2020
SPEECH
Informal welcome remarks by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bond Market Contact Group
25 June 2020
PRESS RELEASE
25 June 2020
PRESS RELEASE
24 June 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Financial Center Breakfast Webinar organised by Frankfurt Main Finance
22 June 2020
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Princeton BCF Covid-19 Webinar Series
22 June 2020
THE ECB BLOG
Evidence shows that the policies adopted by the ECB in mid-March, including the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) and other liquidity-easing measures, have contributed to stabilising markets, writes Chief Economist Philip R. Lane.
22 June 2020
SPEECH
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Frankfurt Finance Summit
22 June 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Tim Bartz and Stefan Kaiser on 15 June and published on 22 June 2020
19 June 2020
PRESS RELEASE
19 June 2020
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 72
- Abstract
- The Global Weakness Index (GWI) is a real-time measure of how weak the global economy is. We use this index to assess on the spot how the repercussions of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis are playing out. After the release of certain soft indicators on March 2, 2020 the GWI increased sharply – much faster than in the 2008 crisis. And at the time of writing it remains at a record high.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
17 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
- Abstract
- The lockdown measures adopted to contain the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and confidence effects are having a significant impact on euro area trade in services. Among several heterogeneous sectors, those involving physical contact are severely affected. The travel sector has been particularly disrupted owing to travel restrictions and the closure of tourist sites. With regard to passenger transportation, the airline industry in particular faces sustained headwinds. Some euro area countries which depend on travel and tourism face particularly adverse economic consequences.
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
L83 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Services→Sports, Gambling, Restaurants, Recreation, Tourism
17 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
- Abstract
- This box reviews recent developments in short-time work and temporary lay-off schemes in the five largest euro area countries. It then calculates wage replacement rates and estimates take-up rates. Combining wage replacement rates with the estimated number of participants makes it possible to calculate the impact of short-time work on household disposable income. The box concludes that short-time work and temporary lay-off measures are significantly buffering the impact of COVID-19 on households’ disposable income.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
17 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
- Abstract
- This box presents evidence on the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) based on the results of the 22nd round of the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE).
- JEL Code
- D22, E58, G32 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
17 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
- Abstract
- The spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic across the globe has led to significant declines in major equity indices and a spike in volatility to values above those recorded in the aftermath of the default of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. In line with the sharp rise in current risks, investors also raised their expectations of future risks, as shown by a widening of the risk-neutral density of future euro area equity returns. The increase in perceived risks accompanied a noticeable rise in investors’ risk aversion to negative tail events. More recently, and following the announcement of significant monetary and fiscal policy stimulus, the estimated tail risk aversion has been declining, while expected risks remain elevated.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
16 June 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert, and published on 16 June 2020
14 June 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by María Jesús Pérez on 9 June 2020 and published on 14 June 2020
13 June 2020
SPEECH
Remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, via videoconference at the inaugural session of the Italian National Consultation
12 June 2020
THE ECB BLOG
The goals of boosting the euro’s global standing and sharing its advantages more evenly are one and the same, writes Executive Board member Fabio Panetta. Through the right mix of European fiscal and monetary policy, we can build a better functioning Monetary Union that achieves both of these goals.
11 June 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Isabella Bufacchi on 8 June
10 June 2020
SPEECH
Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB at the Institute of International and European Affairs, Dublin, (by video conference)
10 June 2020
SPEECH
Remarks by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an online seminar hosted by the Florence School of Banking & Finance
9 June 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview on Twitter with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 9 June 2020
8 June 2020
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECON committee of the European Parliament (by videoconference)
5 June 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Giorgio Zanchini on 5 June 2020
5 June 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Léa Salamé and Thomas Sotto on 4 June 2020
5 June 2020
PRESS RELEASE
5 June 2020
THE ECB BLOG
Two main factors called for further policy action, writes Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. First, the pandemic-related negative shock to inflation poses a threat to medium-term price stability. Second, while conditions in financial markets have stabilised substantially, the situation remains fragile.
4 June 2020
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 4 June 2020
4 June 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
27 May 2020
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 71
- Abstract
- During crises, the number of loans that cannot be paid back increases. What are the lessons from past crises for non-performing loan resolution after COVID-19? In this article we use a new database covering non-performing loans (NPLs) in 88 banking crises since 1990 to find out. The data show that dealing with NPLs is critical to economic recovery. Compared with the 2008 crisis, some factors are conducive to NPL resolution this time: banks have higher capital, the forward-looking IFRS 9 accounting standards can help NPL recognition, and the COVID-19 crisis was not preceded by a credit boom. However, other factors could make NPL resolution more challenging: government debt is substantially higher, banks are less profitable, and corporate balance sheets are often weak.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
27 May 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 25 May and published on 27 May 2020
26 May 2020
PRESS RELEASE
26 May 2020
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
19 May 2020
SPEECH
Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability Policy Webinar, 19 May 2020
18 May 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Dominique Seux, Federico Fubini, Thomas Hanke and Carlos Segovia, published on 18 May 2020
18 May 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Luis Doncel on 11 May 2020 and published on 18 May 2020
14 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
- Abstract
- In this box we review price measurement issues that can arise in times of economic distress. First, we discuss how consumers’ substitution across items in the face of an economic downturn can drive a wedge between published statistics and household consumption prices. We present some evidence from previous recessions along with the historical weights of the aggregated HICP. Second, we discuss additional challenges generated by the ongoing Coronavirus outbreak. Lastly, we discuss possible implications for policymakers.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
14 May 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andras Szigetvari on 6 May and published on 14 May 2020
12 May 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Dorinde Meuzelaar and Martin Visser on 8 May 2020 and published on 12 May 2020
12 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
- Abstract
- The growth slowdown in 2018-2019 was characterised by a marked divergence of industrial production and retail sales. This box seeks to uncover whether the euro area economy was hit by aggregate or sectoral shocks in this period. It finds that most of the growth slowdown can be explained by a series of adverse sectoral shocks. It also finds that, on average, sectoral shocks have a less persistent impact on economic activity than aggregate shocks. The recent COVID-19 shock is undoubtedly an aggregate shock. Yet its impact on economic activity over time remains very uncertain as its characteristics differ substantially from past aggregate shocks.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
12 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
- Abstract
- This box suggests that between January 2018 and February 2020 both foreign and domestic factors contributed substantially to the decline in manufacturing growth in the euro area, while services were more resilient. Economic activity fell sharply in March 2020 as a result of the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), although part of the drop in manufacturing and services is explained by domestic factors. Owing to the coronavirus and the associated containment measures, the economic outlook remains highly uncertain.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
C50 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→General
11 May 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Tonia Mastrobuoni and published on 11 May 2020
8 May 2020
SPEECH
Opening remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Online Edition of The State of the Union conference organised by the European University Institute
8 May 2020
PRESS RELEASE
8 May 2020
SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA
7 May 2020
SPEECH
Introductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
4 May 2020
PRESS RELEASE
4 May 2020
SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
1 May 2020
THE ECB BLOG
In an ECB Blog post, Chief Economist Philip R. Lane discusses the macroeconomic scenarios developed by ECB staff to illustrate the possible impact of the pandemic. He also explains current monetary policy and outlines the approach to setting the future course of monetary policy.
1 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
- Abstract
- This box presents illustrative ECB staff scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity in the euro area. The unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the developments and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic warrants an analysis based on alternative scenarios. These illustrative ECB staff scenarios point to a drop in euro area GDP of between 5% and 12% in 2020. At its trough, quarterly real GDP growth could be as low as around -15% in the second quarter of 2020 under a severe scenario.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E33 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
30 April 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
30 April 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
30 April 2020
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 30 April 2020
30 April 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
28 April 2020
THE ECB BLOG
The ECB is working to protect the continuity and safety of payments during the coronavirus pandemic, writes Executive Board member Fabio Panetta in The ECB Blog. Europeans can trust in our commitment to support them throughout this crisis.
22 April 2020
PRESS RELEASE
22 April 2020
PRESS RELEASE
22 April 2020
THE ECB BLOG
The ECB’s collateral easing package ensures that banks retain access to central bank liquidity at favourable terms, explain Vice-President Luis de Guindos and Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. Improved collateral availability helps banks to continue lending to the real economy.
21 April 2020
INTERVIEW
Contribution by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank, published by Politico on 21 April 2020
18 April 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by João Silvestre on 15 April 2020
16 April 2020
SPEECH
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-first meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
16 April 2020
SPEECH
Remarks by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a 24-Hour Global Webinar co-organised by the SAFE Policy Center on “The COVID-19 Crisis and Its Aftermath: Corporate Governance Implications and Policy Challenges”
15 April 2020
PRESS RELEASE
15 April 2020
PRESS RELEASE
15 April 2020
OTHER PUBLICATION
12 April 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Manel Pérez and published on 12 April 2020
9 April 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Ali Baddou and Carine Bécard on 9 April 2020
9 April 2020
THE ECB BLOG
Our response to coronavirus is designed to reach the firms and families facing a steep loss of income and rising anxiety about the future, writes President Christine Lagarde. She adds that full alignment of fiscal and monetary policies is the best way to protect productive capacity and employment.
8 April 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Matthieu Pelloli and published on 9 April 2020
7 April 2020
PRESS RELEASE
4 April 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Angelos Athanasopoulos and published on 4 April 2020
3 April 2020
THE ECB BLOG
Commercial paper purchases are key for monetary policy transmission to the real economy, explain Vice-President Luis de Guindos and Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel in The ECB Blog. They ease financing conditions for firms and help them manage short-term funding needs.
30 March 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Carlos Herrera on 30 March 2020
24 March 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2381
- Abstract
- We propose an empirical framework to measure the degree of weakness of the global economy in real-time. It relies on nonlinear factor models designed to infer recessionary episodes of heterogeneous deepness, and fitted to the largest advanced economies (U.S., Euro Area, Japan, U.K., Canada and Australia) and emerging markets (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa). Based on such inferences, we construct a Global Weakness Index that has three main features. First, it can be updated as soon as new regional data is released, as we show by measuring the economic effects of coronavirus. Second, it provides a consistent narrative of the main regional contributors of world economy's weakness. Third, it allows to perform robust risk assessments based on the probability that the level of global weakness would exceed a certain threshold of interest in every period of time.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
21 March 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Patrick Bernau and Dennis Kremer
20 March 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Carlos Franganillo on 19 March 2020
20 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
20 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
19 March 2020
THE ECB BLOG
We are committed to playing our role in supporting every citizen of the euro area through this extremely challenging time, President Christine Lagarde writes in The ECB Blog. Our temporary pandemic emergency purchase programme is designed to address the unprecedented situation our monetary union faces.
19 March 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gennaro Pellino on 19 March 2020
18 March 2020
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
18 March 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Iñigo Alfonso on 18 March 2020
18 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
15 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
15 March 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Daniele Manca on 14 March 2020 and published on 15 March 2020
13 March 2020
THE ECB BLOG
We will not tolerate any risks to the smooth transmission of our monetary policy in all jurisdictions of the euro area, Executive Board member Philip R. Lane writes in the inaugural post of The ECB Blog. The post explains the analytical framework underlying the March monetary policy measures.
12 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
12 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
12 March 2020
INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 12 March 2020
12 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
9 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
4 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
2 March 2020
PRESS RELEASE
11 February 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Anja Ettel and Holger Zschäpitz on 10 February 2020, published on 11 February 2020
10 February 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 6 February 2020 and published on 10 February 2020
3 February 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Rallou Alexopoulou on 3 February 2020 and broadcast (in part) on 3 February 2020
24 January 2020
PRESS RELEASE
24 January 2020
SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
