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Macroeconomic projections

Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.

Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.

They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).

June 2026
At a glance

Inflation outlook

Inflation will remain elevated in the short term, as a result of higher energy prices caused by the war in the Middle East. If oil prices decline in line with prices in the futures market, inflation should return to the 2% target in 2028. However, the outlook is highly uncertain.

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Gross domestic product outlook

The war will probably also lead to weaker economic growth this year, as demand is dented by a decline in consumers’ purchasing power, higher uncertainty and weaker confidence. Growth is expected to recover in 2027 and strengthen again in 2028.

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Full report

The full report contains a detailed assessment of the outlook for the euro area economy.

Read the report

Current and past projections

Compare our historical projections of inflation and economic growth. Past projections for the euro area and euro area countries are available for download.

All our macroeconomic projections

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