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Interview

An inflection point in the economy

We are at an inflection point, says Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. The initial weeks of 2021 have been very tough for many firms but, as vaccination programmes are rolled out and the service sector reopens, a rebound from the worst shock of the pandemic will start.

Interview
ECONOMIC BULLETIN 6 May 2021

Economic Bulletin out now

This publication presents the economic and monetary information which forms the basis for the Governing Council’s policy decisions.

It is released eight times a year, two weeks after each monetary policy meeting.

Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021
INTERVIEW 3 May 2021

Bridging the gaps

The impact of the pandemic varies across the euro area, says Vice-President Luis de Guindos. That’s why NextGenerationEU is so important: more funds are earmarked for the countries hardest hit by the pandemic.

Interview
YOUTH INITIATIVES 29 April 2021

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6 May 2021
MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
4 May 2021
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
4 May 2021
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
30 April 2021
PRESS RELEASE
29 April 2021
EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (FULL)
Annexes
29 April 2021
EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (FULL)
29 April 2021
EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (FULL)
29 April 2021
PRESS RELEASE
Related
29 April 2021
EURO MONEY MARKET
5 May 2021
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the OMFIF virtual panel
29 April 2021
Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board and Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the conference on “The Role of Banks in Greening Our Economies” organised by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and Hrvatska narodna banka
26 April 2021
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the European Statistical Forum (virtual)
26 April 2021
Welcome address by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the joint BIS, BoE, ECB and IMF conference on “Spillovers in a “post-pandemic, low-for-long” world”
22 April 2021
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 22 April 2021
3 May 2021
Interview with Luis de Guindos, conducted by Tonia Mastrobuoni on 27 April 2021
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
29 April 2021
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gabriel Mellqvist on 29 April 2021
28 April 2021
Interview on Twitter with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 28 April 2021
12 April 2021
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Sara Eisen on 9 April 2021 and broadcast on the same day
11 April 2021
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Luis Doncel and published on 11 April 2021
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (2) +
Select your language
1 April 2021
Blog post by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
Details
Summary
The recent volatility of inflation can largely be attributed to the nature of the pandemic shock, writes Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. The increase in inflation during early 2021 does not constitute the basis for a sustained shift in inflation dynamics.
25 March 2021
Blog post by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, and Ulrich Bindseil, ECB Director General Market Infrastructure and Payments
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (3) +
Details
Summary
At the ECB we are committed to understanding people’s needs and ensuring the digital euro would be widely accepted, writes Executive Board member Fabio Panetta with Ulrich Bindseil in The ECB Blog.
22 March 2021
Blog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
Details
Summary
Our pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) has provided crucial support to euro area citizens since its launch a year ago, writes President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog. The PEPP has been, and remains, at the core of our pandemic policy response.
18 March 2021
Blog post by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
Details
Summary
The damage caused by more frequent and severe natural disasters far exceeds the costs of transitioning to a greener economy, writes Vice-President Luis de Guindos in his ECB Blog post on our first climate stress test for banks and companies.
8 March 2021
Blog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
Details
Summary
One year into the pandemic, we can clearly see that the social and economic impact of the virus is particularly hard for women, writes President Christine Lagarde. In response we must choose to challenge women’s roles at home, at work and in our society.
6 May 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
6 May 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box reviews the factors behind the 11-percentage point swing in energy inflation between December 2020 and March 2021, with a particular focus on oil prices, base effects and the impact of indirect taxation. Base effects linked to the collapse of oil prices at the beginning of 2020 pushed up energy inflation by around 5 percentage points between December 2020 and March 2021, and this contribution can be expected to increase substantially further in April. The impact of the marked increase in oil prices since November 2020 has come on top of this. However, the strengthening of energy inflation in early 2021 has reflected not only oil price developments but also changes in taxes and other surcharges – including environmentally motivated measures such as the introduction of carbon emission certificates. Overall, energy inflation plays a prominent role in the temporary rise in overall HICP inflation projected for 2021 and its reduction in early 2022.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q4 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
H2 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
6 May 2021
OTHER PUBLICATION
5 May 2021
OTHER PUBLICATION
5 May 2021
OTHER PUBLICATION
5 May 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021
Details
Abstract
We show how heterogeneous expectations across agents can change the macroeconomic outcomes of an increase in long-term inflation expectations. A broad-based expectation of higher longer-term inflation can be expected to lift the short to medium-term inflation outlook and have an expansionary effect on economic activity. If the financial markets are the only segment of the economy repricing higher longer-term inflation expectations, the associated tightening of financing conditions would hamper firms’ and households’ expenditure decisions and prevent any price pressures from building up.
JEL Code
E1 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
I1 : Health, Education, and Welfare→Health
5 May 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021
Details
Abstract
The experience of the last ten years shows that the composition of government debt plays an important role in several analytical and policy domains such as public debt management, financial stability and sovereign debt sustainability. Against this background, the article provides an overview of the evolution of the structure of public debt by holder in euro area countries and explores in more detail the structure of domestically held government debt with a special focus on households. In the first decade of EMU, the share of foreign holdings of euro area government debt, including both creditors from other euro area countries and creditors from outside the euro area, has been increasing owing to deepening financial integration. Following the global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis, the share of domestic holdings increased again, first driven by holdings of banks and other financial corporations and, since 2015, mainly by central banks’ holdings. The role of households’ direct holdings of government debt is relatively limited at around 2% of total government debt in the euro area, although it is more sizeable in several euro area countries and in some other advanced economies. However, considering indirect holdings through investment funds, insurance corporations and pension funds, the share of households in financing government debt is more significant, albeit slightly decreasing over time, and amounted to almost 16% in the euro area in 2020.
JEL Code
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
H1 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
4 May 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2544
Details
Abstract
We develop a horizontal R&D growth model that allows us to investigate the different channels through which financial reforms affect R&D investment and patent activity. First, a “micro” reform that abolishes barriers to entry in the banking sector produces a straightforward result: a decrease in lending rates which stimulates R&D investment and economic growth. Second, a “macro” reform that removes restrictions on banks’ reserves and credit controls. While this reform increases liquidity, it also increases the risk of default, potentially raising the cost of borrowing. This we dub the “reserves paradox” – this makes banks offset the rise in the default rate with a higher spread between loans and deposit rates. Thus our model suggests that whilst micro reforms boost innovation, macro reforms may appear negative. We test and find empirical support for these propositions using a sample of 21 OECD countries.
JEL Code
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
4 May 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021
Details
Abstract
This article aims to take stock of how Brexit-related developments in UK import demand affected euro area foreign demand over the period 2016-19. UK import growth has slowed markedly since the Brexit referendum in 2016, particularly in terms of imports from the EU. We find that the depreciation of sterling squeezed UK household purchasing power, leading to lower import demand. We employ an ECM regression of UK import growth on the various GDP components and relative prices and detect a reduction in the UK’s overall import propensity since the referendum. We also identify sustainability risks for euro area foreign demand emanating from the UK’s balance of payments.
JEL Code
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
3 May 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2543
Details
Abstract
This paper studies how to combine real-time forecasts from a broad range of Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) specifications and survey forecasts by optimally exploiting their properties. To do that, it compares the forecasting performance of optimal pooling and tilting techniques, including survey forecasts for predicting euro area inflation and GDP growth at medium-term forecast horizons using both univariate and multivariate forecasting metrics. Results show that the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) provides good point forecast performance, but also that SPF forecasts perform poorly in terms of densities for all variables and horizons. Accordingly, when the model combination or the individual models are tilted to SPF's first moments, point accuracy and calibration improve, whereas they worsen when SPF's second moments are included. We conclude that judgement incorporated in survey forecasts can considerably increase model forecasts accuracy, however, the way and the extent to which it is incorporated matters.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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