Digital euro
The Eurosystem is preparing for the potential issuance of a digital euro to complement physical cash.
SPEECH
14 September 2026
Preparing cash for the future
Protecting cash also means preparing it for the future, says Executive Board member Piero Cipollone at the House of the Euro. We are working on new euro banknotes that will be secure, sustainable and resilient – and giving Europeans a say on the designs.
Read the speech
MONETARY POLICY
10 September 2026
Our monetary policy statement at a glance
What are the main points in our new monetary policy statement and what mattered to us in our decision? And how do we see the economy developing? Our visual statement explains this in short and easy-to-understand language.
More
BANKNOTES
23 July 2026
Euro banknotes design proposals
Ten shortlisted design proposals for the next series of euro banknotes have been unveiled. Explore the proposals and tell us which ones you prefer.
Have your say- 10 September 2026
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 10 September 2026
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 8 September 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 8 September 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 2 September 2026
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 1 September 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 1 September 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 27 August 2026
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNTRelated
- 23 July 2026
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 14 September 2026
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at “Hofburg im Dialog – Economy, Europe, Resilience” in Vienna, Austria
- 14 September 2026
- Keynote speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the House of the EuroRelated
- 23 July 2026
- EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 14 September 2026
- Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the 2nd Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWE) Symposium on European Competitiveness in Berlin, Germany
- 12 September 2026
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at Fête de la Pomme in Épreville-en-Lieuvin, France
- 11 September 2026
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Richard Cantillon Lecture at 49th DEW Annual Economic Policy Conference 2026 in Wexford, Ireland
- 12 September 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Jean-Christophe Lalay and Maxime Mainguet on 12 September 2026
- 24 August 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Lorenzo Torrisi on 10 August 2026
- 15 July 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Élisabeth Montaufray-Bureau on 10 July 2026
- 13 July 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Ricardo Jesus Silva on 29 June 2026
- 2 July 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit and Christophe Jakubyszyn on 24 June 2026
- 2 September 2026
- Synthetic securitisation can free up bank capital. But does that mean banks lend more to firms? This ECB Blog post explores the effects of loan securitisation. We find that banks that issue synthetic securitisations lend marginally more, but also tend to pay more dividends.Details
- JEL Code
- G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
- 1 September 2026
- The drivers of the recent rise in inflation are different from those of the pandemic-era surge. This time the energy supply shock dominates, while demand and public policy stimulus have minor roles. These differences are key to explaining why monetary policy responses differ.Details
- JEL Code
- E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
- 31 August 2026
- US tech giants are increasingly tapping the euro area bond market to fund their investments. The ECB Blog investigates the consequences for this market and the potential for these developments to reshape it.Details
- JEL Code
- O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
- 26 August 2026
- Use of artificial intelligence at work has doubled over the last two years and people report significant time-savings. But an ECB survey shows that perceived productivity gains vary widely and there are still barriers preventing many from adopting this new technology.Details
- JEL Code
- J01 : Labor and Demographic Economics→General→Labor Economics: General
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 17 August 2026
- The rise of AI has driven a blistering rally in the tech sector, bringing stock market valuations to levels last seen during the dot-com bubble. Although AI is reshaping the economy, do today’s high valuations bear the risk of an abrupt and painful setback in the euro area?Details
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
O30 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→General
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 14 September 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3280Details
- Abstract
- Does the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy influence the rates on USD-pegged stablecoins? While major stablecoin issuers do not pay interest, investors can earn returns by depositing stablecoins in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols. We document unusually large and persistent spreads between traditional short-term interest rates and DeFi deposit rates, as well as a weak and unstable transmission of policy rate changes. We show that, in the short run, monetary policy shocks can move stablecoin rates in the opposite direction of policy rates, delaying a convergence that occurs only over the medium run. Both the sign of the short-run effect and the speed of convergence depend on the intensity of deleveraging induced by crypto-price reactions relative to the standard interest-rate arbitrage channel — an effect shaped by investors’ limited ability to bridge traditional and decentralized finance.
- JEL Code
- G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G29 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Other
- 14 September 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3279Details
- Abstract
- Government spending falls disproportionately on non-tradable services. We show empirically that government spending shocks stimulate private consumption along with sizable spillovers to the goods sector and a relative decline in goods prices. We rationalize these findings with a two-sector open-economy HANK model. Uninsurable income risk and precautionary savings lead to a persistent income-driven expansion in private consumption. In the tradable sector, import intensity and limited labor reallocation dampen wage pass-through to prices, matching observed co-movements. The resulting expenditure switching produces a positive tradable output response despite deteriorating net exports. Household heterogeneity and trade openness jointly shape sectoral fiscal multipliers.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
- 11 September 2026
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 10 September 2026
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREAEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +Annexes
- 10 September 2026
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
- 31 August 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3278Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines whether environmental policy uncertainty undermines clean-technology investment in the United States by weakening policy-induced investment incentives. Using quarterly project-level data on U.S. greenfield investments from 2007Q1 to 2019Q1, combined with novel news-based indices that separately measure environmental policy salience and environmental policy uncertainty, we find that policy uncertainty substantially offsets the positive investment effects of environmental policy. At the aggregate level, a one-standard-deviation increase in environmental policy uncertainty eliminates roughly 75% of the policy-induced increase in the number of cleantech projects and around 50% of the increase in capital expenditure. The deterrence effect is substantially stronger for foreign than for domestic investors, consistent with greater informational frictions facing cross-border capital. These effects persist for at least two years following an uncertainty shock and are corroborated by country- and firm-level analyses, though results for capital expenditure are less robust at disaggregated levels. The findings imply that policy credibility is a first-order determinant of clean investment: an environmental policy framework that is ambitious but perceived as unstable may fail to mobilize the capital it is designed to attract.
- JEL Code
- Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
- 24 August 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3277Details
- Abstract
- We analyze the Probability of Default (PD) of non-financial corporations in Europe using Random Forests (RF) and assess implications for stress testing the banking sector. To this end, we exploit data on firms’ financial statements (Orbis) and banks’ credit registry (Anacredit). We show that RF displays stronger risk sensitivity than logistic regression in stress testing, shedding new light on the non-linear effect of scenario severity on PD. Moreover, we show how RF-based PD can be used in a network of banks and firms to stress test the banking sector through loan exposures as a key transmission channel of adverse scenarios. A granular inspection of banks’ riskiness indices derived from this network sheds light also on RF’s superior ability in capturing non-linearity thanks to its capability in identifying “tail banks”. Our work is relevant for central banks and banking supervisors alike.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 24 August 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3276Details
- Abstract
- Retail investors increasingly discuss markets in real time on social media, yet these discussions remain difficult to measure systematically. This paper introduces the Reddit Retail Investor Sentiment Indicator (R-RISI), a high-frequency measure of retail investor sentiment based on Reddit posts from major investing and crypto-related subreddits between 2015 and April 2026. Using ChatGPT 5.1, we classify posts by sentiment and topic and show that large language models provide more accurate labels for informal social media language than widely used finance-specific models such as FinBERT, which tends to over-assign neutral sentiment. R-RISI is constructed by aggregating daily positive and negative posts, weighting them by user engagement and standardising the resulting series using a rolling one-year z-score methodology. The indicator can be flexibly built for broad asset classes, portfolios, individual securities or thematic groups, allowing sentiment to be tracked at a much higher granularity than traditional retail investor indicators. We show how sentiment and dominant discussion topics evolve over time within each of the extracted subreddits. R-RISI closely reflects major market developments and aligns with established sentiment indicators while providing higher frequency and more timely signals. Empirically, changes in R-RISI contain statistically significant short-term information for market prices. This relationship is particularly relevant during periods of market stress: changes in R-RISI matter more for next-day S&P 500 returns when markets are in decline. The indicator therefore offers a timely and granular tool for analysing retail investor behaviour and monitoring sentiment-driven market dynamics in an environment of growing retail investor participation. A regularly updated version of the indicator is available through an accompanying R-RISI online dashboard.
- JEL Code
- F1 : International Economics→Trade
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
G4 : Financial Economics
G5 : Financial Economics
- 24 August 2026
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
- 20 August 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3275Details
- Abstract
- We estimate the cyclical response of labour force participation to growth shocks across EU regions. We use a shift-share instrumental variable approach and local projections on EU Labour Force Survey microdata covering 15 countries and 114 regions over 2000–2020. The aggregate labour force participation rate is remarkably resilient, a clear contrast to the highly cyclical participation rate documented for the U.S. However, this resilience masks pronounced demographic heterogeneity. Men’s participation declines significantly while women’s remains stable, reflecting sectoral segregation and the added worker effect. Young workers exhibit the most persistent responses, with effects lasting up to eight years, consistent with hysteresis through human capital erosion. Less-educated and non-native workers bear disproportionate employment costs. The findings imply that aggregate slack measures may miss important distributional dimensions relevant for monetary, fiscal, and structural policy.
- JEL Code
- J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
R23 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Regional Migration, Regional Labor Markets, Population, Neighborhood Characteristics
- 20 August 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3274Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the interest rate pass-through of monetary policy in the euro area by focusing on the role of banks’ funding structures. We estimate the interest rate pass-through for loans to non-financial corporations using bank-level balance sheet data. In doing so, we interact the response of lending rates with characteristics of the funding structure, and show that banks that rely more on bond issuance than on the money market tend to be less responsive to policy changes. Finally, we test the presence of the asset-liability-management channel, and find that banks combining longer-term liabilities (higher bond shares) with longer rate fixation periods for loans (higher share of loans with fixed rates) exhibit the most muted lending rate response to policy shocks.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 20 August 2026
- STATISTICS PAPER SERIES - No. 54Details
- Abstract
- The ECB’s inflation target is formulated in terms of headline inflation. However, domestically determined inflation features prominently in the monetary policy transmission mechanism and in gauging underlying inflation, making it important to assess it regularly. The ECB monitors various proxies for domestically determined inflation, including: (i) “domestic inflation”, which aggregates inflation items with a low import share; and (ii) “Supercore” inflation, which aggregates inflation items found to be sensitive to the aggregate business cycle. This paper provides a detailed overview of the methodologies used to derive both these indicators and updates the relevant input data. It suggests refinements to the methodologies that would also make these measures more robust in future updates. In addition, it explains the changes in these indicators due to the introduction of a new classification of consumer goods and services (European Classification of Individual Consumption according to Purpose (ECOICOP) version 2) for the compilation of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). First, on domestic inflation, the paper explains the new underlying data on the import share of inflation items made available since the publication of its methodology, and provides an update, combined with a few methodological changes (for example, moving to a constant composition of the included items). Second, with regard to Supercore inflation, the paper explains the challenges of identifying a cyclical inflation indicator for the euro area, especially in the light of the recent large shocks, and explores modelling approaches. It proposes some refinements to the previous methodology, while keeping a Phillips curve approach as a focal point in the analysis. For both indicators, the paper presents the updated indicators and some key properties.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 12 August 2026
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 398Details
- Abstract
- The Eurosystem implements its monetary policy through a set of monetary policy instruments (MPIs). This report reviews the main changes in the use of MPIs and the associated developments in the Eurosystem’s monetary policy implementation framework over 2024-25. Inflation returned to the ECB’s medium-term target of 2%, supported by the smooth transmission of monetary policy. After completing the hiking cycle of 2022 and 2023, the ECB began reducing its key interest rates in June 2024. This easing phase occurred alongside further balance sheet normalisation. Holdings in the monetary policy bond portfolios continued to run-off, and funds lent under the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) were fully repaid by December 2024. In March 2024, the ECB announced several changes to its operational framework for implementing monetary policy following a review process. Finally, the collateral framework remained broad, while temporary crisis-related measures were phased out and climate-related considerations were further integrated.
- JEL Code
- D02 : Microeconomics→General→Institutions: Design, Formation, and Operations
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
- 11 August 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3273Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the impact of labour and product market reforms on private investment across 26 advanced economies from 1975 to 2020. To this end, we combine a narrative database on major structural reforms with local projections and augmented inverse probability weighting. We find that a major labour market reform typically increases the level of real private investment by 5% cumulatively within six years, while a major product market reform yields an impact of 3%. Structural reforms are particularly effective in stimulating private investment when the private sector has access to ample external finance and the rule of law is strong. Overall, our findings point to an important role for structural reforms in boosting private investment and thus long-term growth prospects in advanced economies.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
L51 : Industrial Organization→Regulation and Industrial Policy→Economics of Regulation
- 10 August 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3272Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines how monetary policy announcements affect firms’ employment expectations. Using German survey data, we combine high-frequency monetary policy surprises with survey response dates to identify the immediate and dynamic effects of monetary policy on firm-level expectations and subsequent employment. Contractionary shocks lead firms to revise employment plans downward immediately and persistently, eventually reducing employment growth. Initially, hiring plans are reduced, while layoffs increase later. Production expectations adjust twice as often but revert faster, consistent with greater labour market rigidity. Labour market institutions shape these responses: firms subject to the minimum wage or with lower collective bargaining coverage revise employment expectations more strongly. Financially constrained firms exhibit disproportionately larger downward revisions, indicating that the financial accelerator operates already at the expectation formation stage. Because firms adjust plans well before effects appear in aggregate data, employment expectations provide an early measure of monetary policy transmission to the labour market.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
J20 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→General
J63 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Turnover, Vacancies, Layoffs
- 10 August 2026
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 397Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyses the European prohibition of monetary financing from an economic perspective. The prohibition seeks to safeguard central bank independence in setting monetary policy to maintain price stability, and to preserve fiscal discipline, thereby preventing monetary policy from becoming constrained or hindered by fiscal policies. Imposing a prohibition on financing public deficits helps to ensure a clear separation of responsibilities between monetary policy and fiscal policy and is consistent with a range of macroeconomic theories, including monetarism and the fiscal theory of the price level. The current EU-wide ban is more stringent than those in place in Europe before the start of Economic and Monetary Union and also than those prevailing in other major currency areas of the world. Tasked with monitoring compliance with the prohibition among European national central banks, the European Central Bank (ECB) has developed certain standards over time, informed by definitions contained in EU regulations and by cases that have arisen over the years. Over the three decades since its introduction, the prohibition in general has been well respected, although a few actual or potential conflicts with the prohibition have required national central banks to take corrective action. Recent economic crises in Europe have given rise to academic proposals to reinterpret or circumvent the ban, notably during the COVID-19 pandemic. These suggestions have included central banks handing out “helicopter money” to the public and cancelling part of the government debt held by European central banks. In general, these proposals would seem to jeopardise the prohibition of monetary financing and ultimately weaken price stability and sound public finances.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
K33 : Law and Economics→Other Substantive Areas of Law→International Law
- 7 August 2026
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 6 August 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3271Details
- Abstract
- We show that monetary policy transmission is shaped not only by a sector’s own financial frictions but also by those prevailing in the broader production network. The latter, indirect frictions amplify the output and price effects of monetary policy and empirically dominate the direct ones. The amplification results from a downstream demand channel, as customers respond to tighter policy by purchasing fewer inputs. This is partly offset by an upstream cost channel, reflecting that suppliers raise prices to protect margins when financing costs rise. We inspect the mechanism in a multi-sector general equilibrium model with input-output linkages and working-capital constraints.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C67 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Input?Output Models
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 6 August 2026
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 396Details
- Abstract
- This paper introduces reduced-form macroeconometric tools, emphasising quantile regression models, to identify key risk drivers for the euro area economy and assess risks around the baseline ECB/Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area inflation and growth. The analysis uses a large number of risk factors, going beyond the usual financial factors, employing a sequential selection approach with robustness checks. To support the analysis a MATLAB toolbox (M@RX) was developed, incorporating several quantile regression-based model classes with a novel parametric tilting methodology and a copula approach for transforming predictive densities across frequencies. This paper contributes to the literature on the treatment of the COVID-era data in quantile regression models. Results indicate that the predictive content of risk factors is horizon, time and objective-dependent. For example, labour market indicators are particularly relevant for assessing upside inflation risks, but to a time-varying extent and with limited predictive power for downside risks. Conversely, uncertainty, money and credit indicators perform better for downside inflation risks. As regards risks to growth, the results confirm the established role of financial conditions, while also highlighting the relevance of monetary indicators, particularly for downside risks. Combined risk factor frameworks – with several different risk indicators – tend to systematically outperform single-factor specifications for density forecasting, due to complementarities across risk indicator groups. An empirical application highlights the policy relevance of these tools, as they provide timely signals and accurately track the direction of realised outcomes. Given the time-varying and state-dependent nature of their predictive performance, a regular performance assessment of the specifications is recommended to maintain reliability.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 6 August 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN
- 6 August 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box assesses the scope for euro area governments to adopt compensatory fiscal measures against the backdrop of the recent energy shock. It examines the available fiscal space, reviews the discretionary fiscal support provided so far, and assesses whether the current inflation environment has generated additional revenues that could partially finance current and future measures. The box concludes that, since fiscal space is more constrained than it was during the 2022 energy crisis and there is only modest scope for self-financing through inflation-driven revenues, it is all the more important for fiscal support to be temporary, targeted and tailored.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling
Interest rates
| Deposit facility | 2,50 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 2,65 % |
| Marginal lending facility | 2,90 % |
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