Digital euro
The Eurosystem is preparing for the potential issuance of a digital euro to complement physical cash.
MONETARY POLICY
Latest ECB press conference
President Christine Lagarde and Vice-President Luis de Guindos explained the Governing Council’s latest monetary policy decisions and answered questions from journalists at a press conference.
Find out more
SPEECH
19 December 2025
Our strategy for the future of payments
The public and private sector must work together to shape the future of money, says Executive Board member Piero Cipollone at the Aspen Institute. By offering pan-European money, infrastructures and standards, we support integrated, safe and innovative payments.
Read Piero Cipollone’s speech
PODCAST
18 December 2025
Tune in to our latest decisions
Our Governing Council decided on monetary policy, determining what’s needed to maintain stable prices in the euro area. Listen to this episode where President Christine Lagarde presents the decisions during our press conference.
The ECB Podcast- 19 December 2025
- Lecture by Mr Lane at Economics Winter Workshop organised by the Central Bank of Ireland in Dublin, Ireland
- 19 December 2025
- Contribution by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to a roundtable at Aspen Institute Italia
- 18 December 2025
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 18 December 2025EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 18 December 2025
- 11 December 2025
- Presentation slides by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECB press briefing on the publication of the Report by the ECB High-Level Task Force on SimplificationRelated
- 11 December 2025
- 8 December 2025
- Guest lecture by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
- 8 December 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow and Mark Schrörs on 3 December 2025
- 4 December 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Takerou Minami on 26 November 2025
- 1 December 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Pablo Allendesalazar
- 11 November 2025
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 4 November 2025
- 10 November 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Luís Reis Ribeiro
- 9 December 2025
- The ECB plans to prepare for the potential issuance of the digital euro by 2029, assuming the European co-legislators adopt the necessary regulation by 2026. Preparatory steps, including pilot exercises and initial transactions, could begin as early as mid-2027.EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Details
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
- 28 November 2025
- Geopolitical tensions such as the war in Ukraine have shaken Europe’s economies. Understanding the economic impact of such shocks is crucial for monetary policy. This ECB Blog post presents a news-based indicator that tracks country-level geopolitical risk.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
- 20 November 2025
- To bridge Europe’s investment gap, we need both public and private funding. Well-designed EU investment programmes can act as a major catalyst for private capital. As this blog post shows, every euro invested by the EU is matched by private finance, thereby doubling its impact.Details
- JEL Code
- E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
- 19 November 2025
- Our 2025 macroprudential stress test report shows that banks are resilient. But when we look at risks not included in the EU-wide stress test, we see some pockets of vulnerability. These findings support a cautious approach to capital buffers.Details
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 10 November 2025
- Banks consider the climate performance of firms and buildings in their lending policies. The euro area bank lending survey shows that lower climate risks tend to improve credit conditions. Meanwhile, green investments increase loan demand from firms and households.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
- 19 December 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 19 December 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 19 December 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 19 December 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 19 December 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 18 December 2025
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 18 December 2025
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
- 15 December 2025
- EBA/ECB REPORT
- 12 December 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 11 December 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 10 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3165Details
- Abstract
- We study how financial integration shapes the transmission of monetary policy to consumer prices and output in the euro area. Using local projections, we document that the effect of financial integration is continuous: greater integration systematically strengthens the pass-through of monetary policy. When integration falls to low levels—around the first quartile of its historical distribution— transmission to both prices and output becomes statistically and economically insignificant. The amplification pattern is pervasive across member states and more pronounced in peripheral economies. These results show that financial integration is a key determinant of monetary policy effectiveness within the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - Network
- ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
- 9 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3164Details
- Abstract
- This study examines how euro area banks factor pollution-induced biodiversity risks into lending decisions, using data from 832 banks and 5,000 major polluters. Our results show that banks are increasingly pricing these risks by adjusting loan-to-value ratios and interest rates. Banks adjust lending conditions in line with EU pollution and biodiversity protection legislation, particularly for companies with large pollution footprints near biodiversity-protected areas or those contributing to Environmental Quality Standards failures of downstream surface waters. The former is driven primarily by banks’ adoption of biodiversity policies and public commitments to the Equator Principles, while the latter is a result of regulatory risks. Our findings inform financial supervisors on how banks manage risks associated with the EU’s zero pollution ambition, shed light on the interplay between biodiversity protection legislation and banks’ lending decisions, and offer actionable guidance on leveraging existing regulatory frameworks to address the climate-biodiversity-pollution nexus.
- JEL Code
- G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Q53 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Air Pollution, Water Pollution, Noise, Hazardous Waste, Solid Waste, Recycling
Q57 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity Conservation, Bioeconomics, Industrial Ecology
- 9 December 2025
- EURO AREA QUARTERLY FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS - QUALITY REPORT
- 8 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3163Details
- Abstract
- This study examines the effect of systematic household misestimation of home prices on financial decisions, including stockholdings, consumption, and asset allocation. Using exogenous variation in house values, mortgage debt, and homeowner misestimation identified through differences in local housing market characteristics, we find that a $60,000 increase in house overvaluation (approximately one standard deviation) results in a 1.1 to 1.9 percent decrease in risky stockholdings, a 1.5 to 4.3 percent increase in consumption, and a 1.3 to 2.5 percent increase in the share of risk-free assets over liquid wealth. The results highlight the need to better understand how housing wealth and beliefs about house values affect portfolio choice, spending, and overall household finance.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
D11 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Theory
D91 : Microeconomics→Intertemporal Choice→Intertemporal Household Choice, Life Cycle Models and Saving
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
C61 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Optimization Techniques, Programming Models, Dynamic Analysis
- 8 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3162Details
- Abstract
- Can rising asset prices reduce wealth inequality? This paper builds a continuous-time heterogeneous-agent general equilibrium in which entrepreneurs hold risky private capital and traditional savers hold safe assets. Safe-asset expansions—via financial innovation, public debt, or a stable equity bubble—operate through a single pass-through: they lower entrepreneurs’ undiversified risk exposure, compress risk premia, and raise the interest rate. This slows entrepreneurial wealth accumulation and redistributes wealth toward traditional savers, so inequality falls even as risky asset valuations rise. Savers gain unambiguously. Entrepreneurs’ welfare is state-dependent: when their wealth share is low, they prefer a higher risk premium and lose from safe-asset expansions; once sufficiently wealthy, they prefer a higher interest rate that protects a larger wealth base and gain.
- JEL Code
- D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy - Network
- ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
- 5 December 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 4 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3161Details
- Abstract
- We employ 68 quarters of data – including from non-public supervisory sources – to study how 17 US and 17 euro-area banks balance the risk of breaching regulatory requirements against the cost of maintaining and speedily restoring “management” buffers. We find that steady-state management buffer targets systematically declined and regulatory risk tolerance (RRT) rose following the Great Financial Crisis, especially at banks experiencing a stronger increase in capital requirements. As a sign that RRT is a conscious choice, banks facing more volatile management buffer shocks set higher management buffer targets. High-RRT banks tend to respond to a depletion of their management buffers by cutting lending, whereas low-RRT banks reduce the riskiness but not the volume of their assets — thus highlighting real-economy effects of capital management strategies.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G31 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Capital Budgeting, Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies, Capacity
- 3 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3160Details
- Abstract
- Using a novel macro-finance model we infer jointly the equilibrium real interest rate r*, trend inflation, interest rate expectations, and bond risk premia for the United States. In the model r* plays a dual macro-finance role: as the benchmark real interest rate that closes the output gap and as the time-varying long-run real interest rate that determines the level of the yield curve. Our estimated r* declines over the last decade, with estimation uncertainty being relatively contained. We show that both macro and financial information is important to infer r*. Accounting for the secular decline in interest rates renders term premia more stable than those based on stationary yield curve models. A previous version of this paper by the same authors entitled “Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality” has been published as ECB Working Paper No 2612.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
- 3 December 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 381Details
- Abstract
- This report provides a comprehensive overview of the models and tools used for macroeconomic projections within the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). These include semi-structural models, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, time series models and specialised satellite models tailored to particular questions or country-specific aspects. Each type of model has its own strengths and weaknesses and can help answer different questions. The models should therefore be seen as complementary rather than mutually exclusive. Semi-structural models are commonly used to produce baseline projection exercises, since they offer the flexibility to combine expert judgement with empirical data and have enough complexity and structure to provide a good representation of the economy. DSGE models, valued for their internal consistency and strong theoretical foundations, are another core forecasting tool used by some central banks, particularly to analyse counterfactuals. Time series models tend to be better suited to forecasting the short term, while scenario analysis and special events may require satellite models, extensions of existing models or even the development of new models tailored to the question at hand. The report also addresses the challenges to macroeconomic projections posed by data quality, including revisions and missing data, and describes the methods implemented to mitigate their effects. The report identifies “quick wins” to improve the projection process by enhancing the transparency and comparability of results through standardised reporting frameworks and better measurement of the judgement integrated in forecasts. The findings highlight the fundamental role of macroeconomic models in underpinning the ESCB’s projection exercises and ensuring that the Governing Council’s assessments and deliberations rest on coherent, granular and credible analysis of both demand-side and supply-side dynamics.
- JEL Code
- C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 2 December 2025
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 28Details
- Abstract
- Euro area insurers manage several trillion euro in assets and take a long-term investment perspective. They hold more alternative and less liquid assets than in the past, partly resulting from the long period of low interest rates until 2022. As a result, their balance sheets have become less liquid and more sensitive to market conditions overall. Meanwhile their holdings of sovereign bonds show significant home bias, which may have even increased with quantitative easing policies. Sovereign bonds also serve as key liquidity source for insurers, who sell sovereign bonds to meet the liquidity needs in response to large claims after natural disasters. Thus, liquidity shocks can spill over from insurance to the sovereign debt markets, increasing market volatility. Capital markets union would likely help insurers diversify their bond portfolios and promote cross-country risk sharing.
- JEL Code
- G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 2 December 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 380Details
- Abstract
- Degraded ecosystems undermine productivity, disrupt supply chains and heighten vulnerability to shocks, creating risks for the real economy and the financial sector. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation also pose a growing risk to price stability, with increasing evidence that ecosystem shocks contribute to inflationary pressures in the euro area. This paper moves from dependency mapping to a risk-based assessment of the euro area economy and banks, applying the nature value-at-risk (NVaR) framework, which links biophysical shocks to ecosystem services with sectoral-production functions1. Water-related risks, including flood protection, surface water and groundwater scarcity, and water quality, emerge as the most material for the euro area economy. Surface-water scarcity alone could expose up to 24% of euro area output to risk under a drought event with a 100-year return period. A complementary endogenous-risk analysis that was conducted, quantified the extent to which euro area firms and banks may contribute to the very ecosystem degradation on which their activities depend, creating feedback loops that could amplify financial risks over time. The results showed material feedback loops between ecosystem degradation and banks’ own portfolios, with water-related risks being the dominant transmission channel. Overall, this study takes a first step towards the identification of risk hotspots and provides a more robust assessment of nature-related risks than prior studies. It also discusses the remaining data gaps and methodological constraints, and outlines the next steps to be taken, as a priority, to address this.
- JEL Code
- Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Interest rates
| Deposit facility | 2,00 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 2,15 % |
| Marginal lending facility | 2,40 % |
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