ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is a quarterly survey of expectations for the rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area for several horizons, together with a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding them.

Data Background

The participants to the Survey of Professional Forecasters are experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions based within the European Union.

Sample questionnaire last update: 14 February 2013

Dates when the SPF has been conducted and published last update: 21 January 2016


In the context of the ten-year anniversary of the SPF’s launch in January 1999, the ECB sent a special questionnaire to the participants in the SPF in autumn 2008. The questionnaire contained questions on timeliness and methods of forecasting.

Summary of the results from the first special questionnaire for participants of the SPF.

The summary contains two annexes:

  1. The original questionnaire
  2. The tabular summary of the answers and responses rates to the individual questions

An overview of the results is also reported in the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin, April 2009


In the context of the fifteen-year anniversary of the SPF’s launch in January 1999, the ECB sent a second special questionnaire to the participants in the SPF in autumn 2013. The questionnaire contained questions on the methods of forecasting and potential changes since the start of the financial crisis.

Summary results from the second special questionnaire for participants of the SPF

The summary contains two annexes:

  1. The original questionnaire
  2. The tabular summary of the answers and responses rates to the individual questions

An overview of the results is also reported in the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin, January 2014


Contact

ecb-spf@ecb.europa.eu

Additional information

Institutions who contributed to the SPF
A
ABN AMRO Bank N.V.
AIB Global Treasury
Allianz SE
Alpha Bank
Analistas Financieros Internacionales (AFI)
B
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentania (BBVA)
Banco Santander
Banco Santander Totta
Bank Austria
Bank Julius Bär
Bankia
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Bank of Ireland Global Markets
Belgian Federal Planning Bureau
BNP Paribas
Bundesverband deutscher Banken (Association of German Banks), Berlin
C
la Caixa
Centro Europa Ricerche (CER)
BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft
Coe-Rexecode
Commerzbank AG
Confederation of Danish Industry (DI)
Confederation of Swedish Enterprise (CSE)
Confindustria
CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
CPR Asset Management
Crédit Agricole SA
Credit Suisse Group
D
Davy Economic Research
Deutsche Bank Research
Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag e.V. (DIHK)
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e.V. (DIW Berlin)
Dexia Bank
E
EFG Eurobank Ergasias S.A.
EIPF, Ekonomski inštitut
European Forecasting Network (EFN)
G
Goldman Sachs Economic Research
Goldman, Sachs & Co. OHG
H
Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI)
HSBC Bank plc
K
KBC Asset Management
KBC Bank Ireland
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
I
Ifo Institute for Economic Research
IHS Global Insight
ING Belgium SA/NV
Institut für Höhere Studien (IHS)
Instituto Flores de Lemus
Intermoney
Intesa Sanpaolo
Istat
L
Labour Institute for Economic Research
Lombard Street Research Ltd
M
Millennium Investment Banking Financial Markets Research
N
National Bank of Greece
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
National Institute of Economic Research (NIER)
NATIXIS
NCB Stockbrokers
Nordea Markets, Economic Research
O
Observatoire Français des Conjonctures économiques (OFCE)
OP- Pohjola Group
Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (WIFO)
P
Prometeia
R
Rabobank Nederland
The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA)
Royal Bank of Scotland
Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e.V. (RWI)
S
Sampo Bank
SEB AG
Société Générale
STATEC
Swedbank's Economic Research Department
T
Thierry Apoteker Consulting (TAC)
U
UBS AG
UniCredit Group
Université catholique de Louvain Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (UCL-IRES)
Z
Zentralverband des Deutschen Handwerks (German Confederation of Skilled Crafts), ZDH
Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (Centre for European Economic Research), ZEW

Other participants to the SPF remain anonymous

Next release: 22 April (provisional)

2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Report
Press release        
2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Report
Press release        

For the reporting of the results prior to the 2015Q1 SPF please check the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin (2002-2014: Q1 - Feb, Q2 - May, Q3 - Aug, Q4 Nov).