ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is a quarterly survey of expectations for the rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area for several horizons, together with a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding them.

Next release: 23 October (provisional)

Provisional release dates for 2015:

  • Q1 - 23 January
  • Q2 - 16 April
  • Q3 - 17 July
  • Q4 - 23 October
2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Report -
Press release       -

For the reporting of the results prior to the 2015Q1 SPF please check the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin (2002-2014: Q1 - Feb, Q2 - May, Q3 - Aug, Q4 Nov).

The participants to the Survey of Professional Forecasters are experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions based within the European Union.

Sample questionnaire last update: 14 February 2013

Dates when the SPF has been conducted and published last update: 17 July 2015


In the context of the ten-year anniversary of the SPF’s launch in January 1999, the ECB sent a special questionnaire to the participants in the SPF in autumn 2008. The questionnaire contained questions on timeliness and methods of forecasting.

Summary of the results from the first special questionnaire for participants of the SPF.

The summary contains two annexes:

  1. The original questionnaire
  2. The tabular summary of the answers and responses rates to the individual questions

An overview of the results is also reported in the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin, April 2009


In the context of the fifteen-year anniversary of the SPF’s launch in January 1999, the ECB sent a second special questionnaire to the participants in the SPF in autumn 2013. The questionnaire contained questions on the methods of forecasting and potential changes since the start of the financial crisis.

Summary results from the second special questionnaire for participants of the SPF

The summary contains two annexes:

  1. The original questionnaire
  2. The tabular summary of the answers and responses rates to the individual questions

An overview of the results is also reported in the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin, January 2014


Contact

ecb-spf@ecb.europa.eu

Additional information

Institutions who contributed to the SPF
A B
ABN AMRO Bank N.V. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentania (BBVA)
AIB Global Treasury Banco Santander
Allianz SE Banco Santander Totta
Alpha Bank Bank Austria
Analistas Financieros Internacionales (AFI) Bank Julius Bär
C Bankia
la Caixa Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Centro Europa Ricerche (CER) Bank of Ireland Global Markets
BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft Belgian Federal Planning Bureau
Coe-Rexecode BNP Paribas
Commerzbank AG Bundesverband deutscher Banken (Association of German Banks), Berlin
Confederation of Danish Industry (DI) D
Confederation of Swedish Enterprise (CSE) Davy Economic Research
Confindustria Deutsche Bank Research
CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag e.V. (DIHK)
CPR Asset Management Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e.V. (DIW Berlin)
Crédit Agricole SA Dexia Bank
G E
Goldman Sachs Economic Research EFG Eurobank Ergasias S.A.
Goldman, Sachs & Co. OHG EIPF, Ekonomski inštitut
I European Forecasting Network (EFN)
Ifo Institute for Economic Research H
IHS Global Insight Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI)
ING Belgium SA/NV HSBC Bank plc
Institut für Höhere Studien (IHS) K
Instituto Flores de Lemus KBC Asset Management
Intermoney KBC Bank Ireland
Intesa Sanpaolo The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Istat L
M Labour Institute for Economic Research
Millennium Investment Banking Financial Markets Research Lombard Street Research Ltd
N O
National Bank of Greece Observatoire Français des Conjonctures économiques (OFCE)
National Institute of Economic and Social Research OP- Pohjola Group
National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (WIFO)
NATIXIS P
NCB Stockbrokers Prometeia
Nordea Markets, Economic Research R
S Rabobank Nederland
Sampo Bank The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA)
SEB AG Royal Bank of Scotland
Société Générale Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e.V. (RWI)
STATEC U
Swedbank's Economic Research Department UBS AG
T UniCredit Group
Thierry Apoteker Consulting (TAC) Université catholique de Louvain Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (UCL-IRES)
Z
  Zentralverband des Deutschen Handwerks (German Confederation of Skilled Crafts), ZDH
  Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (Centre for European Economic Research), ZEW

Other participants to the SPF remain anonymous