Understanding inflation: lessons from the past, lessons for the future?

Thursday, 21 and Friday, 22 September 2017

Main Building, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main
Cinema room

Programme

* indicates the presenter

Thursday, 21 September 2017

8:30
Registration and coffee
8:55

Welcome remarks

Frank Smets, European Central Bank

 

Session 1
Household-level inflation expectations

Chair: Frank Smets, European Central Bank

9:00

Salient price changes, inflation expectations and household behaviour
Francesco D’Acunto, University of Maryland
Ulrike Malmendier, University of California at Berkeley
Juan Ospina, University of Chicago
Michael Weber*, University of Chicago

9:30

Inflation expectations and choices of households: evidence from matched survey and administrative data
Nate Vellekoop*, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Mirko Wiederholt, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt

10:00

Trust in the central bank and inflation expectations
Dimitris Christelis, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II
Dimitris Georgarakos*, European Central Bank
Tullio Jappelli, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II
Maarten van Rooij, De Nederlandsche Bank

Discussant: Damjan Pfajfar, Federal Reserve Board

11:00
Coffee break
11:30

Policy panel
Low inflation – Lessons from the past, lessons for the future?

Chair: Peter Praet, European Central Bank

Panellists:

  • Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Columbia University
  • Adam S. Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Ángel Ubide, Goldman Sachs & Co.

13:00

Lunch and poster session

Poster session

The anchoring of inflation expectations in unconventional times: micro evidence for the euro area
Jonas Dovern*, Universität Heidelberg
Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank

Price setting and volatility: evidence from oil price volatility shocks
Matthew T. Klepacz*, William & Mary

Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: a regime-switching framework for the euro area
Fédéric Holm-Hadulla*, European Central Bank
Kirstin Hubrich, Federal Reserve Board

Services deepening and the transmission of monetary policy
Omar Rachedi*,Banco de España
Alessandro Galesi, Banco de España

Price and consumption responses to large exchange rate shocks: evidence from the great appreciation in Switzerland
Raphael A. Auer*, Bank for International Settlements
Ariel Burstein, UCLA
Sarah M. Lein, Universität Basel

 

Session 2
Lessons from micro price data

Chair: Massimo Rostagno, European Central Bank

14:30

The unequal gains from product innovations: evidence from the US retail sector
Xavier Jaravel*, Stanford University

15:00

Price selection
Carlos Carvalho, Banco Central do Brasil
Oleksiy Kryvtsov*, Bank of Canada

Discussant: Günter W. Beck, Universität Siegen

16:00

Keynote speech
The formation of expectations, inflation and the Phillips curve

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California at Berkeley

16:45
Coffee break
 

Session 3
The international dimension of inflation

Chair: Frank Moss, European Central Bank

17:00

International inflation spillovers through input linkages
Raphael A. Auer*, Bank for International Settlements
Andrei A. Levchenko, University of Michigan
Philip Sauré, Swiss National Bank

17:30

Do global factors matter for trend inflation and the inflation gap in small open economies?
Günes Kamber, Bank for International Settlements
Benjamin Wong*, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Discussant: Benoît Mojon, Banque de France

19:30

Conference dinner – upon invitation only

Friday, 22 September 2017

8:15
Coffee
 

Session 4
Trend inflation, inflation targets and inflation expectations

Chair: Hans-Joachim Klöckers, European Central Bank

8:30

Optimal trend inflation
Klaus Adam*, Universität Mannheim
Henning Weber, Deutsche Bundesbank

9:00

Adaptive learning and survey expectations of inflation
Sergey Slobodyan, CERGE-EI
Raf Wouters*, Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique

9:30

Optimal inflation target in an economy with menu costs and zero lower bound
Andres Blanco*, University of Michigan

Discussant: Argia M. Sbordone, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

10:30

Keynote speech
Real exchange rate behaviour: new evidence from matched retail goods

Alberto Cavallo, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

11:15
Coffee break
 

Session 5
Exchange rate pass-through and the Phillips curve

Chair: Christiane Nickel, European Central Bank

11:45

Shocks versus structure: explaining differences in exchange rate pass through across countries and time
Kristin Forbes*, Bank of England
Ida Hjortsoe, Bank of England
Tsvetelina Nenova, Bank of England

12:15

Did the global financial crisis break the US Phillips curve?
Stefan Laseen*, Sveriges Riksbank
Marzie Taheri Sanjani, International Monetary Fund

Discussant: Ester Faia, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt

13:15

Concluding remarks

Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President, European Central Bank

13:45

Lunch and poster session

Poster session

Inflation forecasts in the euro area: new insights from Phillips curve estimates and quantile regressions
Sophie Béreau, Université de Namur
Violaine Faubert*, Banque de France
Katja Schmidt, Banque de France

ALICE: a new inflation monitoring tool
Gabe de Bondt, European Central Bank
Elke Hahn, European Central Bank
Zivile Zekaite*, European Central Bank

Trend inflation and inflation compensation
Aubrey Poon*, Australian National University
Juan Angel Garcia, International Monetary Fund

Ambiguity, monetary policy and trend inflation
Riccardo M. Masolo, Bank of England
Francesca Monti*, Bank of England

15:15

End of conference

This programme may be subject to change without notice.

Please note that media will be attending and photography and filming activities will take place during the event.

General information

Conference venue

European Central Bank
Main building, Cinema room
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main

+49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
info@ecb.europa.eu

Lunch and poster session venues

Press Gallery

Conference language

English

Conference organisers

Michael Ehrmann, Eliza Lis, Carlos Montes-Galdon, Christiane Nickel, Chiara Osbat, Philip Vermeulen (all at the European Central Bank)

Transfers

Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers, unless indicated otherwise.

Contacts

Conference email address: inflation-conference2017@ecb.europa.eu

Angie Lopez
Directorate General Economics
+49 69 1344 95450
PAC-assistants@ecb.int