REDE
7. Juni 2024
Dominanz der Geldpolitik
Die entschlossene Reaktion der EZB auf die steigende Inflation hat gezeigt, dass die Geldpolitik dominiert, so Direktoriumsmitglied Isabel Schnabel. Es bedarf künftig einer klugen und zukunftsorientierten Fiskalpolitik, um die Unabhängigkeit der Zentralbank zu wahren.
Rede
PODCAST
6. Juni 2024
Die aktuellen EZB-Beschlüsse im Podcast
Der EZB-Rat hat die erforderlichen geldpolitischen Maßnahmen beschlossen, damit die Inflation zeitnah zu unserem 2 %-Ziel zurückkehrt. In dieser Folge unseres Podcasts hören Sie, wie Präsidentin Lagarde die Beschlüsse auf unserer Pressekonferenz erläutert.
EZB-Podcast
PODCAST
10. Juni 2024
Fragen an die EZB
Wollten Sie uns immer schon mal etwas fragen? Jetzt ist Ihre Chance! Senden Sie uns Ihre Fragen bis zum 23. Juni. Im EZB-Podcast beantworten wir unter dem Motto #AskECB Fragen der Bevölkerung. Mit etwas Glück ist Ihre Frage dabei. Erfahren Sie mehr auf Instagram.
Fragen Sie uns auf Instagram- 7 June 2024
- PRESS RELEASE
- 6 June 2024
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 6 June 2024
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 5 June 2024
- PRESS RELEASE
- 5 June 2024
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 4 June 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 4 June 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 7 June 2024
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Maurice Allais Foundation
- 7 June 2024
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Federal Ministry of Finance in Berlin
- 6 June 2024
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 6 June 2024EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 28 May 2024
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 2024 BOJ-IMES Conference on “Price Dynamics and Monetary Policy Challenges: Lessons Learned and Going Forward”
- 27 May 2024
- Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Institute of International and European Affairs, Dublin
- 27 May 2024
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 24 May 2024
- 24 May 2024
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Steffen Clement on 16 May 2024
- 23 May 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Dietmar Mascher and Alexander Zens
- 17 May 2024
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Shogo Akagawa and Takerou Minami on 13 May 2024
- 6 May 2024
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted on 30 April 2024 by Miquel Roig, Javier Jorrín and Óscar Giménez and published on 6 May 2024
- 8 June 2024
- The ECB has cut interest rates. President Christine Lagarde explains why and sets out what still needs to be done to bring inflation back to 2% over the medium term.EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (16) +Details
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
- 23 May 2024
- Negotiated wage growth in the euro area increased in the first quarter of 2024. This post on The ECB Blog illustrates how the ECB wage tracker can help to put latest developments in negotiated wage growth into perspective.Details
- JEL Code
- E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 22 May 2024
- Why do central banks mostly give their guidance for future monetary policy in qualitative terms rather than providing a numerical formula? The ECB Blog takes a look through the lens of the “ABCs” of the ECB’s qualitative reaction function.
- 15 May 2024
- Despite rising interest rates, more consumers are applying for loans. This demand comes mainly from households with lower income. The ECB Blog takes a closer look into credit applications and how they affect banks’ credit standards and credit issuance to households.Details
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 6 May 2024
- Surprisingly strong employment growth in an environment of weak economic activity has recently led to declining labour productivity in the euro area. The ECB Blog discusses causes and prospects for a cyclical recovery in productivity growth.Details
- JEL Code
- J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J24 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Human Capital, Skills, Occupational Choice, Labor Productivity
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
- 10 June 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2944Details
- Abstract
- We use outages as natural experiments to study sovereign bond market functioning. When the euro area futures market goes down, trading activity on the cash market declines, liquidity evaporates, and transaction prices deviate from fundamental values. Tracing back this macrolevel market breakdown to the micro-level, we show that particularly dealers withdraw from the cash market during outages. While most of their remaining trades remain fairly priced, dealer’s capacity to intermediate trades on the cash market is reduced, forcing more clients to trade directly with each other, leading to substantial mispricing. Lastly, outages on cash trading venues barely affect the futures market, suggesting that price formation and liquidity provision is a one-way street, and outages on the US and euro area futures market barely affect each other, in stark contrast to the significant price spillovers. Our results reveal the trade-offs between a (de)centralized market structure, they support cross-asset learning models to explain the link between liquidity and arbitrage, and they demonstrate how financial intermediaries can impose important limits to arbitrage.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 10 June 2024
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 10 June 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 351Details
- Abstract
- The European Union is aiming to foster digital transformation in all sectors by 2030. It has pioneered cross-sectoral legislation on artificial intelligence, cloud computing services and crypto-assets for this purpose. Yet compared with the work done on ESG, the prospective banking regulation regime has still to articulate more purposefully how the industry should manage the risks from digital trends and how supervisors should assess them. This paper discusses digital innovation in the banking sector in the context of the academic literature on financial innovation and non-banks. It also considers how to foster a risk-based Pillar 2 prudential framework, as well as market discipline through harmonised Pillar 3 disclosures. The paper concludes that these latter two propositions can help reconcile the challenges stemming from the short-term horizon applied in prudential assessment and the longer-term horizon over which digital innovation will take place in the banking sector.
- 7 June 2024
- TARGET ANNUAL REPORT
- 7 June 2024
- EURO AREA BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION STATISTICS - QUALITY REPORTAnnexes
- 7 June 2024
- ANNEX
- 7 June 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 350Details
- Abstract
- The activities of multinational enterprises (MNEs) have become an increasingly important feature of the euro area economy, affecting output, trade and financial linkages. MNEs contribute to domestic output by maintaining large production facilities, offering high-paid jobs, bringing in new technologies and generating tax revenues. Following statistical changes implemented in 2015 to better capture the increasing importance of intangible investment, the economic impact of MNE activities has become much more evident in measures of intellectual property product (IPP) investment and external IPP trade flows. MNE activities, which often entail large and instantaneous transfers of IPP, are frequently highly volatile and can blur real-time assessment – and forecasting – of the business cycle, the current account and the capital stock in the euro area. Focusing on Ireland, given the strong prevalence of MNE activities in that economy and their importance for the euro area aggregate, this paper assesses the usefulness of the “modified” series for Irish non-construction investment and services imports. Using the modified series would provide a more accurate picture of the domestic dynamics of the Irish economy and enhance real-time assessment of the euro area business cycle, current account and capital stock. This paper brings insights into the unwinding of IPP shocks, which is a more straightforward exercise than seeking to anticipate the shocks themselves. The conclusions of this work underline the urgent need for more granular and internationally harmonised data on MNE activities to gain a clearer understanding of the dynamics of IPP operations and the implications for both short and long-term macroeconomic developments.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
- 7 June 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Since the end of the pandemic, employment dynamics in the euro area have been significantly stronger than economic activity. The fall in real wages has been key in supporting employment growth following the energy crisis in Europe: real wage growth has been lower than productivity growth, bolstering job creation and leading to labour hoarding. Looking through the lens of an empirical model that explains deviations from historical regularities, we find that a key factor which has helped employment growth decouple from output dynamics is a substitution effect across production inputs in favour of labour. Employment dynamics have also been sustained by demand-side factors, including fiscal policy, as well as by labour market-specific effects related to fewer hours worked per worker. Given the temporary nature of these factors, much of the recent fall in productivity – measured as output per worker – is likely to be reversed in the coming years.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- 7 June 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Why are there more firms able to hoard labour than before the pandemic? Firm-level estimates suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the profit margin of a firm raises the likelihood of that firm hoarding labour by 0.2 percentage points. This suggests that the higher profit margins of firms in recent years have, on average, improved their ability to hoard labour when their own economic outlook has worsened. As a result, a tightening of profit margins may have implications for employment growth.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
- 6 June 2024
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREAEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 29 May 2024
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 27 May 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2943Details
- Abstract
- Amid the growing financial vulnerabilities posed by climate change, we investigate macroprudential capital buffers to mitigate systemic risks and increase the resilience of the banking sector. Leveraging granular data and state-of-the-art stress testing methods, we quantify potential bank losses attributed to climate-related transition risks. Focusing on short-term transition scenarios, we document a significant variance among banks in their risk exposure, with the most exposed institutions being those characterized by lower excess capital. Subsequently, we introduce a methodological framework for tailoring bank-specific buffer requirements to cover these losses, offering macroprudential authorities a practical method for calibrating climate-related macroprudential capital buffers, complementing microprudential policies. While we focus our application on transition risks, the framework can be extended to capture all climate risks in general. The study demonstrates the potential of macroprudential capital buffers to mitigate potential climate-related losses and contributes to the understanding of the appropriate prudential policy response to these challenges.
- JEL Code
- E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 27 May 2024
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 119Details
- Abstract
- Households’ willingness to take on risks has clear implications for the transmission of financial shocks, both in the long run and over the business cycle. This article introduces a newly published research dataset from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) and summarises insights these data provide into household risk-taking. In particular, it examines how an increase in wealth affects a household’s decision on whether or not to invest in the stock market. The evidence suggests that all but the wealthiest households have a substantial aversion to investing in the stock market. Other reasons for avoiding stocks likely include information processing costs, as well as beliefs about stock prices, lack of trust, inertia and other behavioural biases.
- JEL Code
- D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G51 : Financial Economics
- 24 May 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 349Details
- Abstract
- This paper reviews the main arguments underpinning the reform of the EU’s fiscal framework, which has culminated in the adoption by the EU legislators of a revised set of rules for the European economic governance including the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). It takes a chronological approach by first discussing the Commission’s legislative proposals of April 2023 against the pre-reform set of fiscal rules, before assessing the final political agreement which has materialised in the revised set of rules. In view of the multi-dimensional reform outcome, it is argued that the success of the reform of the fiscal framework will ultimately depend on its future implementation by the Commission and the Council. Combining the reform of the fiscal rules with better fiscal coordination through the establishment of a permanent euro area fiscal capacity was not proposed in the context of this reform. This paper argues that completing the architecture of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is an important missing element and should remain a policy priority.
- JEL Code
- H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
H11 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
- 21 May 2024
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
- 17 May 2024
- T2S ANNUAL REPORT
- 17 May 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2942Details
- Abstract
- While global supply chains have recently gained attention in the context of the Covid-related crisis as well as the war in Ukraine, their role in transmitting and amplifying climate-related physical risks across countries has received surprisingly little attention. To address this shortcoming, this paper for the first time combines country-level GDP losses due to climate-related physical risks with a global Input-Output model. More specifically, climate-related GDP-at-risk data are used to quantify the potential direct impact of physical risks on GDP at the country or regional level. This direct impact on GDP is then used to shock a global Input-Output (IO) model so that the propagation of the initial shock to country-sectors around the world becomes observable. The findings suggest that direct GDP loss estimates can severely underestimate the ultimate impact of physical risk because trade can lead to losses that are up to 30 times higher in the EA than what looking at the direct impacts would suggest. However, trade can also mitigate losses if substitutability across country-sectors is possible. Future research should (i) develop more granular, holistic, and forward-looking global physical risk data and (ii) examine more closely the role of both partially substitutable outputs, and critical outputs that are less substitutable or not substitutable at all, such as in the food sector.
- JEL Code
- E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth
F18 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Environment
- 16 May 2024
- LEGAL ACT
- 16 May 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Recent stress episodes have shown how leverage in the non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector can be a source of systemic risk and amplify stress in the wider financial system. Prominent examples of leverage-related risk in the NBFI sector include the role of leveraged hedge funds in the US Treasury market in March 2020, liability-driven investment funds in UK gilt markets in September 2022 and the failure of Archegos Capital Management in March 2021. In response to these events, policymakers around the world have launched a range of initiatives to contain risks from leverage in the NBFI sector more broadly. A key takeaway from these recent experiences and policy initiatives is that no single tool can be uniformly applied to address risks stemming from NBFI leverage. An effective policy response requires a broad range of tools to be made available, which should be appropriately tailored to the specific circumstances and can serve as complements to each other. Given the significant cross-border and cross-sector dimension of these risks, close coordination and cooperation between various authorities is essential, ensuring that risks are addressed from a system-wide perspective.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 16 May 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXAssessing the liquidity preparedness of investment funds to meet margin calls in derivatives marketsFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Recent episodes of liquidity stress highlight the need to monitor funds’ liquidity preparedness to meet margin calls on derivatives. This box proposes four indicators of fund-level liquidity preparedness to meet margin calls to identify potential vulnerabilities that may require higher cash buffers and/or more diversified high-quality liquid assets (HQLA). Both the stock of initial margin posted and the flow of initial and variation margin are examined, offering complementary insights. The first set of indicators considers the ratios between the volumes of margin stock or flow over cash holdings, while the second set replaces cash with HQLA. The results highlight how cash alone may not be enough to cover margin calls, thus emphasising the importance of funds relying on diverse and reliable sources of liquidity and collateral. Moreover, existing vulnerabilities in the fund sector can lead to procyclical behaviours, amplifying market-wide stress and spreading to other market participants.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 16 May 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Around 20% of euro area bank funding is provided by the non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector, mainly via market-based instruments such as bonds and repurchase agreements. The reliance on NBFI funding varies in line with banks’ business models, with some banks obtaining about a third of their funds from the NBFI sector. NBFI entities also display a strong preference for some types of funding instruments, suggesting limited substitutability across sectors and financing sources. Focusing on the repo market, we test funding substitution by euro area banks across sectors when facing a reduction in repo funds. Banks can only replace about 25% of the outflows after repo funding falls. When the outflow comes from an investment fund, banks face an even larger reduction in repo funds. These results and some recent episodes of liquidity turmoil in the NBFI sector suggest that more widespread shocks could affect the ability of banks to secure funding.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
Zinssätze
| Spitzenrefinanzierungsfazilität | 4,50 % |
| Hauptrefinanzierungsgeschäfte (fester Zinssatz) | 4,25 % |
| Einlagefazilität | 3,75 % |
Inflationsrate
Schaubild zur InflationWechselkurse
| USD | US dollar | 1.0756 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 168.74 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.84565 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9637 |
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