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Working papers published in 2015

In-depth studies for experts

Our Working Paper Series (WPS) disseminates economic research relevant to the various tasks and functions of the ECB, and provides a conceptual and empirical basis for policy-making. The Working Papers constitute “work in progress”. They are published to stimulate discussion and contribute to the advancement of our knowledge of economic matters. They are addressed to experts, so readers should be knowledgeable in economics.

Discussion papers

Discussion papers differ from standard working papers in that they are more broadly accessible and offer a more balanced perspective. While partly based on original research, they place the analysis in the wider context of the literature on the topic and also explicitly consider the policy perspective.

Availability: ECB Working Papers are available online only, get updated on latest Working Paper releases by RSS news feed.

No. 1873
15 Dec 2015
Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries
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No. 1872
15 Dec 2015
Fiscal rules, fiscal space and procyclical fiscal policy
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No. 1871
14 Dec 2015
How do speed and security influence consumers' payment behavior?
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No. 1870
14 Dec 2015
Regional dynamics of economic performance in the EU: To what extent spatial spillovers matter?
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No. 1869
25 Nov 2015
Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policies on non-euro area EU countries: evidence from an event-study analysis
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No. 1868
24 Nov 2015
To bi, or not to bi? Differences in spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models
Published in: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Working Paper 256: "To Bi, or not to Bi? Differences in Spillover Estimates from Bilateral and Multilateral Multi-country Models"
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No. 1867
16 Nov 2015
A note on implementing the Durbin and Koopman simulation smoother
Published in: Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Vol 91, November 2015: pp 1-3
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No. 1866
16 Nov 2015
Interconnectedness of the banking sector as a vulnerability to crises
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No. 1865
06 Nov 2015
Inflation forecasts: Are market-based and survey-based measures informative?
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No. 1864
05 Nov 2015
Asset purchase programmes and financial markets: lessons from the euro area
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No. 1863
28 Oct 2015
Fiscal multipliers during consolidation: evidence from the European Union
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No. 1862
27 Oct 2015
Worker flows in the European Union during the Great Recession
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No. 1861
27 Oct 2015
Loan supply, credit markets and the euro area financial crisis
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No. 1860
21 Oct 2015
What drives forbearance - evidence from the ECB Comprehensive Assessment
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No. 1859
21 Oct 2015
Corporate investment and bank-dependent borrowers during the recent financial crisis
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No. 1858
09 Oct 2015
Fiscal policy adjustments in the euro area stressed countries: new evidence from non-linear models with state-varying thresholds
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No. 1857
08 Oct 2015
International spillovers in inflation expectations
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No. 1856
08 Oct 2015
Combining time-variation and mixed-frequencies: an analysis of government spending multipliers in Italy
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No. 1855
25 Sep 2015
Quantitative effects of the shale oil revolution
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No. 1854
25 Sep 2015
Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy
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No. 1853
24 Sep 2015
Price level changes and the redistribution of nominal wealth across the euro area
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No. 1852
24 Sep 2015
Financial literacy and savings account returns
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No. 1851
23 Sep 2015
A rotated Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with macro-financial applications
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No. 1850
18 Sep 2015
Jagged cliffs and stumbling blocks: interest rate pass-through fragmentation during the Euro area crisis
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No. 1849
18 Sep 2015
Drivers of banks' cost of debt and long-term benefits of regulation - an empirical analysis based on EU banks
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No. 1848
17 Sep 2015
Systemic risk rankings and network centrality in the European banking sector
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No. 1847
17 Sep 2015
Private wealth across European countries: the role of income, inheritance and the welfare state
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No. 1846
14 Sep 2015
Characterising the financial cycle: a multivariate and time-varying approach
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No. 1845
07 Sep 2015
A false sense of security in applying handpicked equations for stress test purposes
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No. 1844
25 Aug 2015
Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets
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No. 1843
24 Aug 2015
Debt overhang and deleveraging in the US household sector: gauging the impact on consumption
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No. 1842
24 Aug 2015
The real effects of credit constraints: evidence from discouraged borrowers in the euro area
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No. 1841
21 Aug 2015
Inattention to rare events
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No. 1840
21 Aug 2015
Sovereign risk, interbank freezes, and aggregate fluctuations
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No. 1839
07 Aug 2015
The geography of the great rebalancing in euro area bond markets during the sovereign debt crisis
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No. 1838
07 Aug 2015
Estimation of linear dynamic panel data models with time-invariant regressors
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No. 1837
06 Aug 2015
Modeling financial sector joint tail risk in the euro area
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No. 1836
06 Aug 2015
Assessing the financial and financing conditions of firms in Europe: the financial module in CompNet
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No. 1835
05 Aug 2015
Between capture and discretion - The determinants of distressed bank treatment and expected government support
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No. 1834
05 Aug 2015
Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?
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No. 1833
15 Jul 2015
The great collapse in value added trade
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No. 1832
15 Jul 2015
Long-lasting consequences of the European crisis
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No. 1831
14 Jul 2015
Credit ratings and cross-border bond market spillovers
Published in: Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol 53, May 2015: pp 115-136
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No. 1830
14 Jul 2015
Optimal capital requirements over the business and financial cycles
ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
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No. 1829
13 Jul 2015
Creditor protection, judicial enforcement and credit access
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No. 1828
13 Jul 2015
Network linkages to predict bank distress
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No. 1827
09 Jul 2015
Capital regulation in a macroeconomic model with three layers of default
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No. 1826
09 Jul 2015
Virtual proximity and audiovisual services trade
Published in: European Economic Review, Vol. 77, pp. 82-101
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No. 1825
08 Jul 2015
Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions and economic activity
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No. 1824
08 Jul 2015
Shoe-leather costs in the euro area and the foreign demand for euro banknotes
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No. 1823
07 Jul 2015
Financial constraints and productivity: evidence from euro area companies
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No. 1822
07 Jul 2015
Gender bias and credit access
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No. 1821
26 Jun 2015
Financing constraints, employment, and labor compensation: evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis
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No. 1820
26 Jun 2015
Sovereign stress, unconventional monetary policy, and SME access to finance
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No. 1819
26 Jun 2015
Euro area business cycles in turbulent times: convergence or decoupling?
Published in: Applied Economics, Vol 47 (34-35): pp. 3791-3815
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No. 1818
25 Jun 2015
An alternative view of exchange market pressure episodes in emerging Europe: an analysis using Extreme Value Theory (EVT)
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No. 1817
25 Jun 2015
Wealth effects on consumption across the wealth distribution: empirical evidence
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No. 1816
19 Jun 2015
Conservatism and liquidity traps
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No. 1815
19 Jun 2015
Spillovers and euroscepticism
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No. 1814
18 Jun 2015
VAR for VaR: measuring tail dependence using multivariate regression quantiles
Published in: Journal of Econometrics, Vol 187, Iss. 1: pp 169-188
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No. 1813
18 Jun 2015
A new identification of fiscal shocks based on the information flow
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No. 1812
17 Jun 2015
The relationship between structural and cyclical features of the EU financial sector
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No. 1811
17 Jun 2015
Capturing the financial cycle in Europe
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No. 1810
16 Jun 2015
Banking and currency crises: differential diagnostics for developed countries
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No. 1809
16 Jun 2015
Do banks' overnight borrowing rates lead their CDS Price? evidence from the Eurosystem
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No. 1808
15 Jun 2015
Has the publication of minutes helped markets to predict the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England's MPC?
Published in: European Journal of Political Economy, Vol 39, September 2015: pp 222-234 as "Have minutes helped markets to predict the MPC's monetary policy decisions"
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No. 1807
15 Jun 2015
Does uncertainty affect participation in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters?
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No. 1806
12 Jun 2015
Will the true labor share stand up?
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No. 1805
12 Jun 2015
Credit market disequilibrium in Greece (2003-2011) - a Bayesian approach
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No. 1804
11 Jun 2015
Bank bailouts and competition - Did TARP distort competition among sound banks?
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No. 1803
11 Jun 2015
The information content of money and credit for US activity
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No. 1802
10 Jun 2015
What has driven inflation dynamics in the Euro area, the United Kingdom and the United States
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No. 1801
09 Jun 2015
The exchange rate, asymmetric shocks and asymmetric distributions
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No. 1800
09 Jun 2015
Unraveling the skill premium
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No. 1799
08 Jun 2015
Financial exposure to the euro area before and after the crisis: home bias and institutions at home
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No. 1798
08 Jun 2015
Capital inflows and euro area long-term interest rates
Published in: Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Vol 54(C): pp 186-204
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No. 1797
28 May 2015
Bank bias in Europe: effects on systemic risk and growth
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No. 1796
28 May 2015
Real estate markets and macroprudential policy in Europe
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No. 1795
27 May 2015
Lack of confidence, the zero lower bound, and the virtue of fiscal rules
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No. 1794
22 May 2015
Granger causality and regime inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs
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No. 1793
22 May 2015
Collateral damage? Micro-simulation of transaction cost shocks on the value of central bank collateral
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No. 1792
20 May 2015
The risk management approach to monetary policy, nonlinearity and aggressiveness: the case of the US Fed
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No. 1791
19 May 2015
Interest rates, money, and banks in an estimated euro area model
Published in: Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol 55, June 2015: pp 281-294
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No. 1790
19 May 2015
Household saving behaviour and credit constraints in the euro area
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No. 1789
04 May 2015
Exploring price and non-price determinants of trade flows in the largest euro-area countries
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No. 1788
04 May 2015
Assessing European firms' exports and productivity distributions: the CompNet trade module
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No. 1787
29 Apr 2015
"Made in China" - How does it affect our understanding of global market shares?
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No. 1786
29 Apr 2015
Optimal supervisory architecture and financial integration in a banking union
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No. 1785
27 Apr 2015
A measure of redenomination risk
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No. 1784
27 Apr 2015
Policy mandates for macro-prudential and monetary policies in a new Keynesian framework
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No. 1783
23 Apr 2015
Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans
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No. 1782
22 Apr 2015
The impact of fiscal policy announcements by the Italian government on the sovereign spread: a comparative analysis
Published in: European Journal of Political Economy, Vol 39, September 2015: pp 288-304
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No. 1781
22 Apr 2015
The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU
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No. 1780
08 Apr 2015
Do financial reforms help stabilize inequality?
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No. 1779
08 Apr 2015
Commercial bank failures during the Great Recession: the real (estate) story
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No. 1778
07 Apr 2015
European firm adjustment during times of economic crisis
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No. 1777
07 Apr 2015
Exports and domestic demand pressure: a dynamic panel data model for the euro area countries
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No. 1776
02 Apr 2015
Expectation-driven cycles: time-varying effects
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No. 1775
02 Apr 2015
Housing market dynamics: Any news?
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No. 1774
01 Apr 2015
Does fiscal austerity affect public opinion?
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No. 1773
01 Apr 2015
An automatic leading indicator, variable reduction and variable selection methods using small and large datasets: Forecasting the industrial production growth for euro area economies
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No. 1772
26 Mar 2015
Fragility in money marketfunds: sponsor support and regulation
ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
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No. 1771
26 Mar 2015
Governments' payment discipline: the macroeconomic impact of public payment delays and arrears
Published in: Journal of Macroeconomics, January 2016
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No. 1770
24 Mar 2015
The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations
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No. 1769
24 Mar 2015
Ending over-lending: assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow
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No. 1768
23 Mar 2015
Macroprudential oversight, risk communication and visualization
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No. 1767
23 Mar 2015
Labour market adjustments in Europe and the US: How different?
Published in: Economic Policy, Vol 30 (84), 2015: pp 643-682
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No. 1766
17 Mar 2015
Shifting horizons: assessing macro trends before, during, and following systemic banking crises
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No. 1765
16 Mar 2015
Endogenous labor share cycles: theory and evidence
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No. 1764
16 Mar 2015
Assessing European competitiveness: the new CompNet microbased database
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No. 1763
10 Mar 2015
Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the new Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?
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No. 1762
10 Mar 2015
Wealth shocks, unemployment shocks and consumption in the wake of the Great Recession
Published in: Journal of Monetary Economics
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No. 1761
09 Mar 2015
Global value chains: a view from the euro area
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No. 1760
09 Mar 2015
Comparing fiscal multipliers across models and countries in Europe
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No. 1759
12 Feb 2015
Corporate Debt Structure and the Financial Crisis
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No. 1758
12 Feb 2015
Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries
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No. 1757
10 Feb 2015
Efficiency, Inefficiency and the MENA Frontier
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Disclaimer: Please keep in mind that the papers are published in the name of the author(s). Their views do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.