Paieškos galimybės
Home Žiniasklaidai Paaiškinimai Tyrimai ir publikacijos Statistika Pinigų politika Euro Mokėjimai ir rinkos Darbas ECB
Pasiūlymai
Rūšiuoti pagal
Nėra lietuvių kalba

Publications on Monetary policy

5 May 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021
Details
Abstract
We show how heterogeneous expectations across agents can change the macroeconomic outcomes of an increase in long-term inflation expectations. A broad-based expectation of higher longer-term inflation can be expected to lift the short to medium-term inflation outlook and have an expansionary effect on economic activity. If the financial markets are the only segment of the economy repricing higher longer-term inflation expectations, the associated tightening of financing conditions would hamper firms’ and households’ expenditure decisions and prevent any price pressures from building up.
JEL Code
E1 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
I1 : Health, Education, and Welfare→Health
23 April 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 66 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges took place between 23 March and 1 April 2021. According to these contacts, activity in much of the services sector continued to be strongly influenced by the prevalence of lockdowns and travel restrictions. Meanwhile, in the manufacturing sector, supply was increasingly failing to keep up with demand owing to shortages of inputs, which may continue for some weeks or months. Industrial companies pointed to some upward movement in prices, while prices in the services sector remained subdued.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
25 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box shows how the economic impact of containment measures adopted in response to the pandemic differed across sectors and countries, and over time. The impact is assessed with a cross-sector vector autoregression (VAR) model. The results confirm that containment measures had a relatively large impact on sectors with non-teleworkable, contact-intensive occupations, such as recreational services. They also show that the impact of the measures varied across countries largely due to the different economic structures and containment policies. There is evidence that economic agents learned how to cope with the restrictions over time. This suggests that more targeted measures, coupled with behavioural responses by households and firms, helped limit the economic costs of containment policies during the renewed wave. Looking ahead, the large divergence in the economic impact of restrictions across sectors is likely to persist at least in the short term.
JEL Code
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
25 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the seventh and eighth reserve maintenance periods from 4 November 2020 to 26 January 2021.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
24 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
Profit margins are an integral part of domestic price setting and have had an impact on the response of euro area inflation to the COVID-19 shock. While profits have fallen more strongly during the COVID-19 crisis than during earlier recessions, profit margins have shown an unusually high degree of resilience relative to the depth of the recession. The resilience of profit margins likely reflects the normal resilience of profit margins observed in recessions and, in addition, the impact of job retention schemes.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
24 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
This article reviews recent evidence on the interaction between monetary policy and household inequality. While economic inequality has been trending upwards in most advanced economies since the early 1980s, this analysis concludes that monetary policy has not been a major driver of those long-term trends. On the contrary, the accommodative monetary policies of recent years have had an equalising effect, particularly through employment gains for lower income households. Moreover, there is now more evidence showing that the distribution of income and wealth plays a key role in the transmission of monetary policy to household spending. However, while improvements to models and data have contributed to a better understanding of the ways in which household heterogeneity shapes the transmission of monetary policy, several unsolved puzzles remain, necessitating further research efforts.
JEL Code
D3 : Microeconomics→Distribution
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
23 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
Consumers’ inflation expectations play a key role in the monetary transmission mechanism. As such, it is crucial for monetary policymakers to understand their nature and how they are formed. This article shows that inflation (un)certainty is a channel that can shed light on some of the more puzzling aspects of reported quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations. It helps explain why these may be higher than actual inflation. This is because, in a situation of uncertainty, many consumers report in rounded numbers, often leading them to quantitatively overestimate inflation. We also show that the uncertainty framework fits with some of the stylised facts of consumers’ inflation expectations, such as their correlation with sociodemographic characteristics and economic sentiment. Furthermore, the uncertainty channel may also explain the negative correlation observed between the economic outlook and inflation expectations.
JEL Code
D11 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Theory
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
22 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box examines developments in the euro area stock of capital, discusses how investment and depreciation rates have affected the capital stock in different directions, and reviews the varying impacts of the crisis across assets. The sharp decline in activity stemming from the pandemic and the associated containment measures has so far not translated into a sharp decline in the euro area capital stock.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
4 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
Details
Abstract
Housing costs represent a large share of the household budget. Developments in these costs are not only linked to house prices, rent and mortgage costs but are also influenced by certain household characteristics, such as tenure status. This is due to the fact that tenants and less affluent households, for example, tend to spend a large share of their income on housing. In addition, household characteristics affect the negative relationship between homeownership and the housing burden. Households with a higher income and living in larger households are predominantly homeowners. That said, higher homeownership rates are not, in themselves, necessarily good or bad, as they can be associated with a range of both positive and negative economic outcomes.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
4 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
Details
Abstract
We augment the ECB-BASE model using the predictive dynamics of an SIR model in order to assess the interplay between epidemiological fundamentals, containment policies and the macroeconomy, investigating the macro impact of pandemic-related risk factors associated with a medical solution to the COVID‑19 crisis.
JEL Code
E1 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
I1 : Health, Education, and Welfare→Health
3 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
Details
Abstract
As part of the process of gathering information on the outlook for economic activity and prices, the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains regular contacts with non-financial companies. This gathering of business intelligence has become more structured over time and tends to be particularly valuable during exceptional periods, such as those resulting from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Therefore, starting with this issue of the Economic Bulletin, the ECB will provide a summary of the main findings from its contacts with leading euro area businesses. This article explains how these interactions contribute to the ECB’s economic analysis and how they are organised and summarised. The main findings from the most recent exchanges with companies, which took place in early January, are summarised in Box 1.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
1 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
Details
Abstract
The response to the COVID-19 outbreak with lockdowns implies both a shutdown of some markets and a severe economic downturn. Price developments have been influenced in a complex manner by different demand and supply factors, which limits the applicability of past empirical regularities in the interpretation of recent aggregate inflation developments. This article looks at this complexity and applies a component-by-component approach to analysing HICP inflation that takes into account the circumstances prevailing in individual markets. The article analyses how sub-components of euro area inflation have behaved since the onset of the pandemic. It then elaborates on the relative importance of demand and supply factors driving the disaggregated price developments and the implications for headline inflation. The article concludes with the lessons that can be learnt from this bottom-up analysis, an approach that is particularly suited to current circumstances.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
7 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box examines the fiscal policy recommendations addressed to the euro area countries against the background of the COVID-19 crisis.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
7 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth reserve maintenance periods from 22 July to 3 November 2020.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
6 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
Digitalisation – the diffusion of digital technologies, leading to a digital economy is “virtually everywhere”. It transforms economies, making it an important issue from a central banking perspective. Some of the key effects of digitalisation relevant to monetary policy relate to output and productivity, labour markets, wages and prices. This article summarises and updates the evidence on the euro area and the EU digital economy. This article also takes a closer look at the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the digital economy, both in the short term and beyond.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
6 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
This article analyses labour market developments in the euro area since the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Total hours worked declined sharply in the first half of 2020. However, employment and unemployment reacted only weakly to the marked fall in GDP, as many workers remained employed under job retention schemes. These contributed to a fall in compensation per employee and an increase in compensation per hour worked. Participation in the labour force also dropped substantially, more than offsetting the increase observed since mid-2013. An analysis of the decomposition of labour market shocks via a sign-restricted structural vector-autoregressive model shows that both supply and demand shocks contributed to the decline in total hours worked. High-frequency indicators on hiring rates and job postings have declined sharply since April and continue to indicate a depressed level of labour demand. However, employment and hours worked recovered somewhat in the third quarter. Nonetheless, the COVID-19 pandemic is having a heterogeneous impact on employment across euro area countries and there is the risk of a further increase in geographic divergence in euro area labour markets. Temporary employees, the young and workers with low levels of education were the most affected, while teleworking may have played a role in supporting employment and hours worked for some workers in certain sectors. Activity sectors such as trade and transport and recreation activities have been disproportionately affected, with the largest decreases in hours worked. However, it is too early to assess the extent to which the pandemic will affect the need for labour reallocation across sectors, tasks and occupations.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
5 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
The exceptional contraction in economic activity induced by the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) has warranted an update of the standard toolkit used to forecast euro area real GDP in real time. This box describes the adjustments and the additions to the standard toolkit developed by ECB staff to account for the dramatic change in statistical and economic relationships due to COVID-19. The use of each individual tool is subject to a considerable degree of judgment as to the type of adjustment needed to best capture the sharp movements in economic activity. These tools have provided helpful insights into forecasting euro area real GDP in real time, even if they imply some shortcomings.
JEL Code
C18 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Methodological Issues: General
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
5 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
The Bulgarian lev and the Croatian kuna were included in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) on 10 July 2020. This marks a milestone towards further enlargement of the euro area. The process unfolded along a roadmap agreed by the various ERM II parties, which reflects the lessons learned from the past and the creation of banking union, as well as a careful assessment of country-specific strengths and vulnerabilities. First, this article briefly reviews the history, main features and procedures of ERM II. It then argues on the basis of quantitative evidence that the process of euro adoption may induce a regime shift when a country joins ERM II. This shift may alter the economic incentives of both domestic and foreign investors and the authorities of the Member State concerned, with important policy implications. For this reason, countries need sound policies, governance and institutions in order to allocate international financial inflows and domestic credit efficiently. They must also address risks with adequate macroeconomic, macroprudential, supervisory and structural measures. Drawing on this analysis, the third part of the article explains the rationale for ERM II participation and the roadmap towards it that has been successfully implemented for Bulgaria and Croatia. This includes the completion of several policy measures before joining ERM II, as well as post-entry policy commitments made by the Bulgarian and Croatian authorities. The article concludes by highlighting the way ahead and challenges faced by the two countries on the path towards euro adoption.
JEL Code
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F02 : International Economics→General→International Economic Order
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
4 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of an ad hoc ECB survey of leading euro area companies looking at the long-term effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the economy. The responses indicate that companies see the pandemic having a long-term impact both on supply and demand. The pandemic has required firms to implement changes that they consider will make their business more efficient and resilient in the long term and help cope with changes in the structure of demand and consumer behaviour. Almost all the companies that responded said they have accelerated the adoption of digital technologies. They also expect that significantly increased use of the “home office” will continue, which they do not see as negatively impacting productivity. Most respondents expect productivity to increase as a long-term consequence of the pandemic, the other side of this coin, however, is lower employment, given the expectation of protracted reduced demand in some sectors.
JEL Code
Click here to enter text. : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
2 December 2020
OTHER PUBLICATION
10 November 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2020
Details
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered large shifts in household consumption as well as issues related to price collection. We construct a monthly-reweighted consumer price index for the euro area which is able to capture part of the changes in household consumption since the beginning of the pandemic. In this way, we quantify the gap between published HICP inflation and the inflation rate of the items actually purchased by final consumers. Furthermore, we discuss the issue of price imputation and its impact on published statistics.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
10 November 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2020
Details
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic almost certainly affected potential output negatively via various channels, affecting the trends of total factor productivity, capital and labour. Quantitative estimates show that euro area potential growth will likely stall or even decline in 2020 and the pace of the recovery is highly uncertain, as it depends on whether the shock is temporary or persistent. Comprehensive policy measures are playing a crucial role in preventing hysteresis in the euro area economy and long-term economic scarring.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
24 September 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods spanning from 6 May to 21 July 2020.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
24 September 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020
Details
Abstract
Firms’ demand for bank loans has been at a record-high level since March 2020 as firms have scrambled to bridge liquidity gaps originating from the COVID-19 shock. To help banks accommodate the surge in loan demand at favourable conditions, most euro area governments have implemented schemes of public guarantees on bank loans. These transfer some of the arising credit risk and eventual credit losses from banks to governments, thereby mitigating the costs for banks. The features of the loan guarantee schemes’ vary across countries as well as their actual use, with higher take-ups being reported in Spain and France, while lower amounts have been taken up in Italy and Germany. Moreover, SMEs in the sectors most affected by the crisis (e.g. trade, tourism, transport) seem to have benefited the most from these programmes. Overall, public loan guarantee schemes have played a key role in supporting corporate lending dynamics since April and preserving favourable lending conditions. The phasing out of these schemes needs to be carefully aligned with corporate financing needs in the months ahead, while their potential side-effects warrant monitoring.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
H81 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, Grants, Bailouts
23 September 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020
Details
Abstract
Fiscal policy is playing a key role in stemming the economic fallout from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In addition to the discretionary fiscal policy measures employed by governments, automatic fiscal stabilisers play an important role in cushioning the economic downturn. This article shows that automatic fiscal stabilisers are generally sizeable in the euro area, but vary significantly across Member States. However, their effectiveness may be more limited at the current juncture, given the nature of the COVID-19 crisis and the high uncertainty surrounding its effects. This provides a rationale for a stronger role of discretionary fiscal policy at national and European level. Over the medium term, fiscal policies could increasingly make use of quasi-automatic fiscal instruments that provide additional timely, targeted and temporary macroeconomic stabilisation for the euro area. Careful consideration should be given to the design of such instruments over the business cycle, their economic efficiency, and to the need for building fiscal buffers in good times.
JEL Code
H12 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Crisis Management
H20 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→General
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
22 September 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020
Details
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered an unprecedented increase in uncertainty. This box shows how selected measures of uncertainty have evolved during the past few months and exploits the information embedded in the measure of macroeconomic uncertainty to assess its impact on economic activity. This is done by using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model which allows the dynamic effect of an uncertainty shock on the variable of interest to be estimated.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
D80 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→General
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
6 August 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box reviews the recent decision on the inclusion of the Bulgarian lev and the Croatian kuna in ERM II from a historical, institutional, policy and economic perspective. It explains the key features of ERM II, describes the process and rationale underlying the decision, including the prior and post‑ERM II entry policy commitments made by the Bulgarian and Croatian authorities, and explains the key elements that were taken into consideration when defining the central rate of the lev and the kuna against the euro in the exchange rate mechanism.
JEL Code
F02 : International Economics→General→International Economic Order
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
30 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
Qualitative indications from banks on firms’ loan demand and actual loan growth generally correlate with developments in real economic variables. However, during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, longer-term lending seems to have decoupled from developments in fixed investment. Owing in part to sizeable monetary and fiscal policy support measures, firms’ demand for longer-term loans has increased, while their financing need for fixed investment has declined. By contrast, developments in short-term loans for firms continue to co-move closely with their loan demand for working capital, owing to their acute liquidity needs during the pandemic. Loan demand increased more strongly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) than for large firms in the second quarter of 2020, benefiting substantially from the policy support measures for bank lending during the pandemic. Developments across economic sectors have been heterogeneous during the pandemic. In the sectors most affected by the crisis, demand for bank loans increased considerably, while value added dropped. The decline in gross value added in the manufacturing sector is particularly relevant in explaining the fall in business investment during the pandemic. While some degree of recovery in investment activity is expected in the second half of 2020, the end of fiscal support schemes in some countries may lead to renewed fears about the creditworthiness of borrowers. Overall, the continuation of a supportive policy environment in the near future will be crucial in preserving favourable financing conditions and facilitating the flow of credit to firms.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
30 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box examines the impact of the ECB’s monetary policy measures taken in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, focusing on asset purchases and the targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III). It outlines how the ECB’s response centred on addressing three key issues: (i) market stabilisation, (ii) providing central bank liquidity to maintain credit provision to the real economy, and (iii) ensuring that the overall monetary policy stance is sufficiently accommodative. The box sets out in detail how the ECB’s measures have indeed proved an effective and efficient response to the COVID-19 crisis, in turn providing crucial support to the real economy and to price stability across two dimensions, namely underpinning the medium-term growth and inflation outlook and removing tail risks around the baseline outlook. These measures are a proportionate response under current conditions given that the ECB’s price stability objective would have been subject to further downside risks in the absence of such measures.
JEL Code
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
29 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
With the ageing of the baby boom generation, the population share of the older working-age cohort, i.e. those between 55 and 74 years, has been gradually increasing. This age group has also seen a considerable rise in the labour force participation rate. This article examines the reasons behind the increase across euro area countries. Most euro area countries adopted substantial pension reforms in the last two decades to reduce risks to long-term fiscal sustainability. These pension reforms, complemented by other labour market reforms, can be expected to have boosted the labour force participation rate of older workers. While other factors, like better health conditions, rising life expectancy, higher educational levels, mainly among women, rising net wealth and labour market conditions have likely contributed, they alone cannot explain the particularly sharp rebound in the participation rate of older workers since 2000. The macroeconomic shock due to the on-going lock-down measures may, however, put further increases of the labour force participation rate at risk.
JEL Code
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J14 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of the Elderly, Economics of the Handicapped, Non-Labor Market Discrimination
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J26 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Retirement, Retirement Policies
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
29 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box examines high-frequency data to quantify the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on both job postings and hiring patterns in the euro area. Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, both of these indicators had increased steadily year on year, reflecting a rise in the number of job findings in the euro area. However, both the Indeed job postings and the LinkedIn hiring rate have declined significantly since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis and the lockdowns, with the hiring rate bottoming out in May 2020. While the decline in the hiring rate was broad-based across sectors, the intensity of the COVID-19 shock is asymmetric, with sectors such as recreation, travel and manufacturing being more affected by the crisis than others, such as healthcare, software and IT services sectors. Based on the high-frequency information derived from the hiring rate, the implied unemployment rate is expected to peak during the second quarter of 2020 and to be around 2.3 percentage points higher than in February. Overall, the methodology and the high-frequency data used in this box allow for a timely assessment of developments in the euro area labour market. The use of job flows in and out of unemployment helps to enhance our understanding of the labour market adjustment during the current COVID-19 crisis.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
29 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box analyses labour market developments in the euro area since the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, contrasting the developments in business and consumer survey data with the main headline labour market indicators for the euro area. On the one hand, business and consumer survey data point to a strong deterioration in the euro area labour market since the introduction of the containment measures to limit the spread of the virus. On the other hand, the extensive margin of the labour market has shown a muted response, with both employment and unemployment adjusting moderately to the COVID-19 shock. The adjustment of the euro area labour market is occurring instead via a strong decline in the average number of hours worked per employed person, shaped by the widespread use of short-time work schemes in the euro area. These schemes have been successful in containing dismissals, supporting incomes and helping firms to effectively reduce their payroll costs and liquidity needs, while maintaining the worker-job relationship. However, the continued success of the widespread use of short-term work schemes in supporting the euro area labour market depends critically on the dynamics and duration of the crisis.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
28 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
Food prices are an important driver of euro area HICP due to their sizeable share in the consumption basket and their volatility. This box reviews the food price increases in April 2020 and finds that they were unusual in terms of their size and the circumstances surrounding them. The developments in April 2020 most likely reflected strong increases in demand combined with supply-side effects related to the lockdown and containment measures caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Owing to strong food sector supply linkages within the euro area, the disruption of supply chains within the euro area observed during the COVID-19 pandemic may have had important implications for the food supply and consumer prices. To conclude, the box highlights that, while the May and preliminary June data show signs of normalisation in price changes, the possibility remains of upside price pressures in the short term and downside price pressures in the medium term.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
28 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
After a pronounced decline until mid-April 2020, near-term earnings growth expectations derived from surveys and derivatives pricing in euro area equity markets appear to have troughed as the economic recovery is expected to gradually take hold. At the same time, a number of indicators show that investors remain concerned about a more protracted weakness in the euro area economy. Moreover, and despite a significant improvement since the announcement of the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), market participants continue to price significant downside risks in equity markets in a highly uncertain environment. Nevertheless, equity prices continue to increase against the backdrop of a stabilisation in risk sentiment, global policy support, and the fact that tail risks of an imminent global financial crisis have faded to some extent. However, if current expectations of a recovery in earnings turn out to be overly optimistic, there will be substantial risks of significant renewed declines in equity prices.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
27 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
The article explores the behaviour and characteristics of durable goods consumption in the euro area, including an examination of the degree of heterogeneity among the euro area’s largest countries, and offers a perspective based on business cycle turning points. It also covers the relevance of financing conditions, including a specific focus on car purchases, as well as long-run trends in relative price and shares of durable goods in consumption. The analysis is complemented by insights from an empirical (structural VAR) model as described in Casalis and Krustev (2020, ECB Working Paper Series, No 2386), which sheds further light on the importance of durable goods-specific factors, alongside more traditional factors, in driving consumption.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
27 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
The world economy is facing an unprecedented shock, and as the impact of the pandemic unfolds, world trade will be hit particularly hard. Global value chain linkages are likely to magnify the impact. This box assesses the effects of disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and provides estimates of the impact on world trade. We find that GVC spillovers could significantly amplify the decline in world trade.
JEL Code
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
18 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box examines regional developments in labour input within the euro area since the peak in economic activity before the global financial crisis (GFC). It reveals that the increase in total hours worked during the recovery that followed the GFC was greater than the decline during the recession only for regions at the top of the GDP per capita distribution. Overall, the evolution of total hours worked in the euro area between 2007 and 2018 was quite heterogeneous across regions, with hours worked being more insulated from the fall in GDP in richer regions during the recession period and poorer regions not converging with their richer counterparts during the recovery that followed. The smaller decline in total hours worked in the richer regions during the downturn and the similar growth rates observed during the recovery are the main sources of the regional heterogeneity in the time pattern of total hours worked, and can be attributed to changes in the employment rate, to the decline in average hours worked during the recession period, and to the stability of regional differences in population growth during both periods, with the latter factor being consistent with labour migrating from poorer to richer regions.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
18 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the first two reserve maintenance periods of 2020, which ran from 29 January to 5 May 2020.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
17 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box reviews recent developments in short-time work and temporary lay-off schemes in the five largest euro area countries. It then calculates wage replacement rates and estimates take-up rates. Combining wage replacement rates with the estimated number of participants makes it possible to calculate the impact of short-time work on household disposable income. The box concludes that short-time work and temporary lay-off measures are significantly buffering the impact of COVID-19 on households’ disposable income.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
17 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box presents evidence on the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) based on the results of the 22nd round of the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE).
JEL Code
D22, E58, G32 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
17 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
Details
Abstract
The spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic across the globe has led to significant declines in major equity indices and a spike in volatility to values above those recorded in the aftermath of the default of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. In line with the sharp rise in current risks, investors also raised their expectations of future risks, as shown by a widening of the risk-neutral density of future euro area equity returns. The increase in perceived risks accompanied a noticeable rise in investors’ risk aversion to negative tail events. More recently, and following the announcement of significant monetary and fiscal policy stimulus, the estimated tail risk aversion has been declining, while expected risks remain elevated.
JEL Code
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
16 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
Details
Abstract
Using information derived from the survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), this article provides an overview of the changes in the financing conditions experienced by euro area companies over the last ten years. The focus is on non-financial small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Following the Global Financial Crisis and during the subsequent euro area sovereign debt crisis, access to external finance for these firms was severely impaired. This was followed by a steady improvement in financial conditions, particularly due to support from the accommodative monetary policy measures introduced since 2012. Despite a gradual improvement since the mid-2010s, challenges for SMEs’ access to finance remained, for example in terms of funding diversification, even before the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started at the end of 2019. The outbreak of the recent pandemic raised some new, severe and immediate challenges for SMEs in terms of their access to financing. An accompanying box in this issue of the Economic Bulletin summarises the results of the latest SAFE survey, which took place in March and April 2020, in the midst of the coronavirus crisis.
JEL Code
D22, E58, G32 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
14 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
Details
Abstract
In this box we review price measurement issues that can arise in times of economic distress. First, we discuss how consumers’ substitution across items in the face of an economic downturn can drive a wedge between published statistics and household consumption prices. We present some evidence from previous recessions along with the historical weights of the aggregated HICP. Second, we discuss additional challenges generated by the ongoing Coronavirus outbreak. Lastly, we discuss possible implications for policymakers.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
13 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
Details
Abstract
This article explains how negative rates are transmitted via banks and financial markets, both via standard transmission channels and via channels specific to negative interest rates. The latter can enhance the stimulus, but may also hinder it, in particular in the case of protracted periods of negative rates. Euro area bank profitability has been persistently low since the financial crisis, and this has the potential to impair bank lending. At the same time, profits have increased since 2014 and the impact of negative interest rates is assessed as broadly neutral so far, as the negative contribution to net interest income has been offset by the positive impact on borrower creditworthiness. Finally, the article reports empirical evidence – drawn from a range of studies – on how negative rates affect the broader economy, starting with bank portfolio allocation decisions, lending volumes and lending rates. The article then elaborates on the impact of the negative rate policy on key macroeconomic aggregates, notably economic activity and inflation.
JEL Code
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
12 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
Details
Abstract
The growth slowdown in 2018-2019 was characterised by a marked divergence of industrial production and retail sales. This box seeks to uncover whether the euro area economy was hit by aggregate or sectoral shocks in this period. It finds that most of the growth slowdown can be explained by a series of adverse sectoral shocks. It also finds that, on average, sectoral shocks have a less persistent impact on economic activity than aggregate shocks. The recent COVID-19 shock is undoubtedly an aggregate shock. Yet its impact on economic activity over time remains very uncertain as its characteristics differ substantially from past aggregate shocks.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
12 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box suggests that between January 2018 and February 2020 both foreign and domestic factors contributed substantially to the decline in manufacturing growth in the euro area, while services were more resilient. Economic activity fell sharply in March 2020 as a result of the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), although part of the drop in manufacturing and services is explained by domestic factors. Owing to the coronavirus and the associated containment measures, the economic outlook remains highly uncertain.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
C50 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→General
11 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
Details
Abstract
Aggregate exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import and consumer prices is lower in the EU than it was in the 1990s and is found to be non-linear. Low estimated aggregate ERPT to consumer prices does not mean that the exchange rate movements do not matter for inflation, as aggregate estimates mask substantial heterogeneities across countries, industries and time periods due to structural, cyclical and policy factors. Key structural characteristics that explain ERPT across industries or sectors are: import content of consumption; share of imports invoiced in own currency or in a third dominant currency; integration of a country and its trading partners in global value chains; and market power. In line with the literature, different types of shocks that move the exchange rate in the euro area elicit different price responses, so the combination of shocks that lie behind changes in the exchange rate at any point in time matters for the ERPT. Finally, monetary policy itself affects the ERPT and credible and active monetary policy lowers the observed ex post ERPT. Moreover, under the effective lower bound, credible non-standard monetary policy actions have a larger ERPT to consumer prices. Instead of rules of thumb, in order to assess the impact of exchange rate changes when forecasting inflation, it is better to use structural models with sufficient feedback loops that take into account the role of expectations and monetary policy reaction., share of imports invoiced in own currency or in a third dominant currency, integration of a country and its trading partners in global value chains, and market power. In line with the literature, different types of shocks that move the exchange rate in the euro area elicit different price responses, so the combination of shocks that lie behind changes in the exchange rate at any point in time matters for the ERPT. Finally, monetary policy itself affects the ERPT and credible and active monetary policy lowers the observed ex post ERPT. Moreover, under the effective lower bound, credible non-standard monetary policy actions have a larger ERPT to consumer prices. Instead of rules of thumb, in order to assess the impact of exchange rate changes when forecasting inflation, it is better to use structural models with sufficient feedback loops that take into account the role of expectations and monetary policy reaction.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
1 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box presents illustrative ECB staff scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity in the euro area. The unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the developments and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic warrants an analysis based on alternative scenarios. These illustrative ECB staff scenarios point to a drop in euro area GDP of between 5% and 12% in 2020. At its trough, quarterly real GDP growth could be as low as around -15% in the second quarter of 2020 under a severe scenario.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E33 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
8 April 2020
OTHER PUBLICATION
Colloquium in honour of Benoît Coeuré, held on 17-18 December 2019
26 March 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the seventh and eighth reserve maintenance periods of 2019, which ran from 30 October to 17 December 2019 and from 18 December 2019 to 28 January 2020, respectively.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
26 March 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2020
Details
Abstract
This article first stresses the importance for a central bank of having a reliable quantitative framework for obtaining a real-time assessment of developments in economic activity in the near term and discusses associated challenges. Second, it presents the framework for short-term forecasting of euro area real GDP growth used at the ECB. The article evaluates the forecast performance of the framework, also comparing it with the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections. It also illustrates how the framework is used to i) analyse the role that data surprises play in the revisions to the outlook and ii) assess risks to the projections. It concludes by pointing out directions for future work.
JEL Code
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
12 March 2020
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
6 February 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020
Details
Abstract
Survey evidence suggests a further deterioration in the euro area outlook for manufacturing investment in the near term. Country and sectoral-level survey results point to the German manufacturing sector as the key driver behind the waning outlook for investment. Business investment in R&D is also expected to remain subdued.
JEL Code
E0 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
5 February 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020
Details
Abstract
This article focuses on household wealth in the euro area from a macroeconomic perspective. It describes developments in financial and non-financial wealth and their driving forces. The impact of wealth on private consumption is then discussed. It concludes with some monetary policy implications.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
5 February 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020
Details
Abstract
Foreign trade zones (FTZs) are designed to promote economic development by favouring international trade, especially trade within global production networks. In FTZs, a substantial share of imports (ranging from 12-17% of total domestic imports) is manufactured and, in part, re-exported. FTZs can break the “chain effect” of tariffs because intermediate goods imported via FTZs enjoy preferential treatment or even duty exemption. This already occurs in the United States and is under consideration in China, where capital controls in FTZs are looser and tax advantages already exist. In the European Union, however, FTZs are mainly used to smooth out customs processes, while an import duty suspension scheme is used to grant favourable treatment to imports of intermediates.
JEL Code
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
4 February 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020
Details
Abstract
Bank lending to euro area corporates has gradually recovered since 2014, supported by very favourable financing conditions. An assessment of this recovery indicates that it has been broadly in line with economic activity, although loan growth has remained below pre-crisis levels. The moderate pace of the recovery in loan growth mainly reflects the post-crisis deleveraging process and the growing relevance of alternative sources of financing, as well as somewhat weaker economic activity compared with the pre-crisis period. Nevertheless, evidence suggests that bank lending to non-financial corporations has supported firms’ business investment. The strength of the relationship between business investment and bank lending to corporates has, however, differed across euro area countries. Qualitative and quantitative evidence shows that the recovery in bank lending to corporates has received strong support from the ECB’s non-standard monetary policy measures.
JEL Code
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
3 February 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box reviews developments in non-euro area EU countries in central and eastern Europe with respect to trade integration and economic synchronisation with the euro area and investigates the potential exposure of their export dynamics to changing external conditions. The six economies are now an integral part of European production networks and net exports are a key driver of business cycle synchronisation with the euro area. In recent years, however, the business cycles of the six countries have somewhat decoupled from euro area economic activity. The potential drivers of this decoupling include robust domestic demand, lingering effects of past foreign direct investment in industry, the nature and final use of exports and the resilience of exports to countries outside the euro area. So far, the ongoing moderation in manufacturing, including in the automotive industry in Germany, and the escalation of trade tensions have been only partly reflected in the six economies.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box reports the responses to an ad hoc question in the latest Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) regarding the export activities of euro area small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). In general, just over a third of euro area SMEs exported goods or services outside their domestic market. About half of those exported outside Europe, of which 60% to North America and 40% to China. Comparing sectors, export activities seem to be quite strong among SMEs in the industrial sector, followed by trade and services, but more limited in construction. Exporters, particularly those exporting outside Europe, tend to have a strong equity base and use trade credit. They also make more use of subsidised loans and tend to be more innovative.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box proposes two complementary tools for assessing the performance of the labour market in the euro area. The first is a visualisation tool in the form of a spider chart that displays 18 variables characterising the current euro area labour market conditions. The second applies a principal component analysis to the variables in the spider chart and summarises the information on labour market conditions in two indicators: level of activity and labour market momentum. These indicators show that, in the second quarter of 2019, the level of activity in the euro area labour market was at a level comparable with the pre-crisis peak, while the labour market momentum remains elevated but is declining somewhat. The analysis suggests that there is scope for the level of activity in the euro area labour market to continue to improve in the near term, benefiting from an overall still positive labour market momentum.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth reserve maintenance periods of 2019, which ran from 31 July to 17 September 2019 and from 18 September to 29 October 2019 respectively.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
The expansion of global value chains (GVCs) over the past decades has influenced how trade tariffs affect economic activity. Global sourcing activities of firms imply that a tariff, usually imposed to protect a domestic industry, can entail higher input costs for other industries. The empirical evidence presented here corroborates this point: tariffs that raise input costs are found to negatively affect the output of industries relying on foreign sourcing. The analysis further suggests that the sensitivity of trade to tariffs is higher for production stages further downstream in global supply chains. In the context of the current trade dispute between the United States and China, this evidence may be of relevance, since the US tariffs against China affected a large number of intermediate goods and Chinese exports to the United States – in part – relate to downstream production stages of GVCs.
JEL Code
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
Although recent wage growth has increasingly been in line with predictions, there has been a period of low and under-predicted wage growth in the euro area. This period of weak wage growth can be explained to a large extent by the drivers traditionally captured in a Phillips curve analysis, such as economic slack (including broader measures of labour market slack) and inflation expectations. However, these factors do not paint the full picture, as wages were consistently under-predicted during the period 2013-17. As wages differ across sectors and according to employees’ individual characteristics, significant changes in the composition of employment that have taken place in the euro area since the beginning of the crisis could have been an important factor in aggregate wage growth developments. These changes can result from slow-moving trends, cyclical changes or a combination of the two. This article discusses the role of such changes, known as “compositional effects”, in wage growth. It analyses the role of changes in the composition of employment with respect to the individual characteristics of employees (e.g. age, education or gender), employment types (e.g. permanent or temporary contracts) and sectoral shifts. The analysis is mainly based on microdata from the EU survey of income and living conditions, but the article also includes cross-checks and analyses based on the EU Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS) and national accounts data. The analyses indicate that compositional effects pushed up wage growth early in the crisis, but that the effect later decreased and turned negative. This has contributed to a relatively muted response from aggregate wage growth, both to the strong downturn of the labour market early in the crisis and later, from 2014 onwards, to cyclical improvements. Hence compositional effects have been one factor contributing to low wage growth in the euro area. The most important contributions to compositional effects seem to be related to changes in the age and educational structure of the workforce, which can have both a long-term and a cyclical impact. Looking at country-specific evidence, the euro area aggregate results have been influenced by Spain and Italy in particular.
JEL Code
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box informs about the review of draft budgetary plans for 2020 and derives some implications for a reform of fiscal governance. To this end, it also identifies weaknesses in the review exercise notably with respect to the follow-up of recommendations by the Council that the budgetary plans are supposed to entail. It would be important that such shortcomings be addressed, inter alia, in the Commission’s forthcoming review of the “six-pack” and “two-pack” regulations, which were implemented in 2011 and 2013 respectively, in the aim of strengthening fiscal governance.
JEL Code
H11 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
This article examines bank lending conditions for euro area non-financial corporations (NFCs), making use of the wealth of soft information available in the euro area bank lending survey (BLS) since its inception in 2003. One relevant question in this context is whether the tightening of the bank loan supply during the financial and sovereign debt crises has been offset by the easing of bank lending conditions for NFC loans since 2014. The article illustrates that the easing over this period has come mainly through a substantial loosening of the actual terms and conditions applied by banks to new loans to firms of average credit quality, while the credit standards that banks have established for their loan approval decisions have eased by less. The article also draws on the responses of individual banks to examine the differences in bank lending conditions for NFC loans across bank business models. This analysis reveals that the change in credit conditions of banks with business models more reliant on stable funding sources, such as deposits, is more muted. In short, it looks at additional aspects that enhance the regular assessment of bank lending conditions faced by firms based on the euro area BLS.
JEL Code
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
The box assesses recent developments in social security contributions and minimum wages. It finds that social security contributions have led to a moderation of growth in composition of employee growth, while growth in wages and salaries per employee – excluding employers’ social security contributions – has remained quite robust. Over the last decade minimum wages have affected wage growth substantially in some countries, but only marginally in the euro area.
JEL Code
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J38 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Public Policy
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
20 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
On 30 October 2019 the ECB implemented a two-tier system under which a portion of credit institutions’ excess liquidity holdings with the Eurosystem are exempt from remuneration at negative rates. The aim of the two-tier system is to support the bank-based transmission of monetary policy in preserving the overall positive contribution of negative rates to the accommodative stance of monetary policy. With the introduction of the two-tier system banks holding less excess liquidity than their exemption allowance increased their excess liquidity holdings by borrowing from banks exceeding their exemption allowances. The bulk of banks’ increased borrowing in the money market occurred via secured transactions. Although the increase in trading activity temporarily coincided with higher money market rates, experience with the two-tier system over its first month shows that money market rates were only marginally affected and remain well aligned with the policy rate.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
19 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
This article evaluates the performance of the Eurosystem/ ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area in the context of the elevated macroeconomic volatility and uncertainty that has prevailed since the financial crisis. It finds that there has been considerable variability in projection errors over time. With regard to real GDP growth projections, errors that were substantial during the sovereign debt crisis have become more limited in recent years. As for headline inflation, unexpected fluctuations in oil prices – which in the staff macroeconomic projections are assumed to follow the path of oil price futures – played a dominant role in explaining the errors, as was the case during the pre-crisis years. On the other hand, HICP inflation excluding energy and food has been persistently overprojected since 2013. While these projection errors can also partly be attributed to errors in the conditioning technical assumptions, other factors (such as modelling errors, changes in economic relationships or judgement) have also played a key role at different points in time. The forecast performance of the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections has been broadly similar to that of other international institutions and of private sector forecasters, suggesting that projection errors have been mainly driven by common elements. These may include economic shocks unforeseeable to any forecaster and developments that have become more prominent since the financial crisis, including, among other things, structural reforms, changes in the relationship between slack and prices, globalisation and digitalisation.
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
12 December 2019
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
5 November 2019
FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING
ECB Forum on Central Banking 2019
5 November 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box assesses the current cyclical position of the euro area labour market by means of a stylised tracer for employment and output fluctuations using the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey data. This tracer points towards a slowdown in the labour market since February 2018, with the services sector continuing to support employment growth in the euro area, while manufacturing employment has been in a downturn since May 2019. A more granular approach suggests the weakness in manufacturing is more prevalent in the capital goods and motor vehicles industries, while the resilience of the services sector is perceived to be broad-based across industries. Looking ahead downward risks stemming from the transmission of the weakness in manufacturing to the services sector may arise, strengthening the need for close monitoring of the euro area labour market.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
4 November 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of an ad hoc ECB survey of leading euro area companies about their price-setting behaviour, covering various dimensions. Among the findings, it was seen that firms mostly vary their prices by geographical market and by type of customer, but much less so depending on the sales platform. The frequency of price reviews and changes varies significantly across sectors, with weekly or even daily price changes being common for some retailers, while in some parts of the services sector annual price changes are more typical. Manufacturers tend to review prices monthly but change them only on a quarterly, semi-annual or annual basis. Increases in average selling prices are achieved, to a large extent, by introducing new products with higher value content. When reviewing prices, firms pay most attention to costs and competitor prices, with the latter being particularly important for consumer-facing firms. Many factors contribute to sluggish price adjustment: pricing strategies are based on broadly stable costs and margins, a fear that competitors will not follow suit and, for consumer-oriented firms, a focus on pricing points and an understanding that customers expect prices to remain stable.
JEL Code
D4 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L1 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
4 November 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2019
Details
Abstract
Euro area growth has weakened, and economic indicators point to slow growth in coming quarters. This mainly reflects the ongoing weakness in international trade – in an environment of elevated global uncertainties – and its impact on the manufacturing sector. Activity levels in the services sector, by contrast, have remained relatively resilient. However, this raises questions about the extent to which there could be spillovers from the manufacturing sector to the services sector in the future. An analysis of the relationship between manufacturing and various sub-groups of the services sector shows that non-market services exhibit a weak co-movement with the cyclical developments in manufacturing. In contrast, market services and business services tend to move with manufacturing, but as yet there is limited evidence that the recent slowdown in manufacturing has been transmitted to these parts of the economy. This is likely to stem from the resilient developments in domestic demand, supported by the very accommodative monetary policy stance, which continues to support labour markets and create favourable financing conditions.
JEL Code
A10 : General Economics and Teaching→General Economics→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
29 October 2019
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 9
Details
Abstract
A recent ECB study shows that leverage is an important driver in investors’ redemption decisions. Regulatory changes to the UCITS framework facilitated the use of derivatives, increasing leverage for some European mutual funds which amplified investors' responsiveness to negative returns in a procyclical manner.
JEL Code
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
26 September 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2019, which ran from 17 April to 11 June 2019 and from 12 June to 30 July 2019 respectively.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
26 September 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2019
Details
Abstract
Profits can account for a significant part of domestic price formation and affect the pass-through of changes in costs to final prices. National accounts contain a broad measure of profits, gross operating surplus, which can tell us more about the role of profits for domestic price pressures, as measured in the GDP deflator. This box illustrates how profits have recently shaped domestic price pressures in the euro area. It explains which factors are the main drivers of the movements in profit margins and discusses how they have likely contributed to their recent developments.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
26 September 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box describes the elements and underlying rationale of the Governing Council’s comprehensive policy package decided in September.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
25 September 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2019
Details
Abstract
Evidence suggests that household income risk is an important factor in the propagation of macroeconomic shocks and the transmission of economic policy. An analysis using survey data on income from the euro area suggests that the nature of household income risk in the euro area is comparable with the United States, in that (i) individual earnings risk is closely linked to the performance of the labour market, and (ii) in a downturn it increases much more for some groups of workers than for others. These insights are useful for assessing the current economic outlook and the role of income risk in amplifying macroeconomic shocks.
JEL Code
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
24 September 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box looks at the current employment expansion in the euro area and compares it with past periods of employment growth. It uses annual data for the period 1960-2018 and shows that: (i) the current employment expansion is so far not particularly lengthy in comparison with past recoveries; (ii) the current employment expansion is more employment-rich than previous expansions as employment growth has been stronger relative to GDP growth than it was in the past; (iii) the fast-paced decline in the unemployment rate has been a notable feature of the current expansion; and (iv) the decline in unemployment and the increase in employment in the current expansion have occurred alongside moderating labour costs, but that moderation has been weaker than in the previous expansion., (ii) the current employment expansion is more employment-rich than previous expansions as employment growth has been stronger relative to GDP growth than it was in the past, (iii) the fast-paced decline in the unemployment rate has been a notable feature of the current expansion, and (iv) the decline in unemployment and the increase in employment in the current expansion have occurred alongside moderating labour costs, but that moderation has been weaker than in the previous expansion.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
23 September 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2019
Details
Abstract
Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, the box suggests that the fall in industrial production growth in the euro area in the past year has been driven by both the intensification of global trade tensions and adverse domestic shocks. Whereas in the first half of 2018 weakness in international trade in an environment of global uncertainties was the main contributor to the fall in industrial production, since July 2018 euro area-specific developments have also played a major role.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
C50 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→General
23 September 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2019
Details
Abstract
Data on derivatives transactions have recently become available at a number of central banks, including the ECB, and have opened up new avenues for analysis. Collected as a result of reforms of the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market, which were primarily designed to counter systemic risk, the data have numerous applications beyond the domain of financial stability. This article presents two such applications. It demonstrates how data gathered under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) can be used to better understand two types of derivatives market that are of particular importance for central bank analysis, namely the interest rate derivatives and inflation-linked swap markets. For the interest rate derivatives market, the article shows how investor expectations for interest rates may be inferred through “positioning indicators” that track how a set of “informed investors” take positions in the market in anticipation of future interest rate movements. Such quantity-based indicators can complement other, more established indicators of interest rate expectations, such as forward rates or survey-based measures. For euro area inflation-linked swap markets, the article exploits the fact that EMIR data allow a first systematic look at trading activity in these markets, which can provide valuable and timely information on investors’ inflation expectations. It highlights a number of structural features of activity in these markets and discusses their possible implications for the monitoring of market-based measures of inflation compensation.
JEL Code
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
12 September 2019
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
2 September 2019
FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING
ECB Forum on Central Banking 2019
8 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box shows that the reversal in gross flows of euro area foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2018 was to a large extent due to developments in flows in Luxembourg and the Netherlands, with Ireland and Belgium contributing to a lesser extent. The episode can be explained by the activity of special purpose entities located in these countries and is also likely to be related to the US corporate tax reform.
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F38 : International Economics→International Finance→International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
8 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019
Details
Abstract
Services price inflation tends to be much higher than non-energy goods price inflation. However, the gap between the two has become smaller since the financial crisis. This phenomenon has coincided with the corresponding decline in the gap between unit labour cost growth in the services sector and manufacturing, driven by the decline in unit labour cost growth in the services sector. Overall, the narrowing of the gap between services price inflation and goods price inflation has been a major feature of lower HICP inflation excluding food and energy. However, this measure of underlying inflation would have declined even more had the weight of the services component not changed.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
7 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019
Details
Abstract
At a time of high government indebtedness, low structural economic growth and ageing populations, a key element in today’s policy debate is the role of government in providing its services and distributing resources to society. Government decisions on tax and social benefit systems have an important bearing on macroeconomic performance in the euro area. This article focuses on how social spending on individual households or on the provision of collective goods and services is organised in euro area countries. Choices made concerning the level and structure of social spending are country-specific and reflect societal policy preferences. The aim of this article is to review government social spending across euro area countries and how it has evolved since the pre-crisis period. It also zooms in on the different social insurance systems in euro area countries in terms of pensions and health and looks at spending on education. We devote particular attention to the analysis of pensions, as pensions represent the biggest social spending item in all countries. The article suggests that countries should look for policies and reforms to ensure the sustainability of social spending, especially in view of ageing populations and possible negative economic shocks.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H40 : Public Economics→Publicly Provided Goods→General
H51 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Government Expenditures and Health
H52 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Government Expenditures and Education
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
7 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019
Details
Abstract
This article discusses the crypto-asset phenomenon with a view to understanding its potential risks and enhancing its monitoring. First, it describes the characteristics of the crypto-asset phenomenon, in order to arrive at a clear definition of the scope of monitoring activities. Second, it identifies the primary risks of crypto-assets that warrant continuous monitoring – these risks could affect the stability and efficiency of the financial system and the economy – and outlines the linkages that could cause a risk spillover. Third, the article discusses how, and to what extent, publicly available data allow the identified monitoring needs to be met and, by providing some examples of indicators on market developments, offers insights into selected issues, such as the availability and reliability of data. Finally, it covers selected statistical initiatives that attempt to overcome outstanding challenges.
JEL Code
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
C18 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Methodological Issues: General
6 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box presents a model-based economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index for the euro area by applying machine learning techniques to news articles from January 2000 to May 2019. The machine learning algorithm retrieves components of overall EPU, such as trade, fiscal, monetary or domestic regulations, for a wide range of languages. Recently, a steady and pronounced increase in the euro area EPU index has been observed, driven mainly by trade, domestic regulation and fiscal policy uncertainties.
JEL Code
C1 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
C8 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
6 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019
Details
Abstract
This article discusses the hypothesis that part of the decline in exchange rate pass-through to import prices has been the result of the rise of global value chains.
JEL Code
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
5 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019
Details
Abstract
While both global activity and trade have been declining since mid-2018, world trade has slowed particularly sharply. This box investigates the reasons behind the decline in global trade and its decoupling from economic activity. This is largely explained by a turnaround in the most trade-intensive components of global demand, such as investment, exacerbated by rising global uncertainty and tighter financing conditions. From a production perspective, the decline in investment was reflected in a sharp slowdown in manufacturing output.
JEL Code
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
20 June 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the first and second reserve maintenance periods of 2019, which ran from 30 January to 12 March 2019 and from 13 March to 16 April 2019 respectively.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
20 June 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2019
Details
Abstract
Economic agents’ confidence and developments in the real economy are intrinsically linked. Confidence largely reflects broad economic conditions but, at times, may also become an autonomous source of business cycle fluctuations. This box looks at the potential propagation effects of lower confidence on investment in recent times. Isolating the structural confidence shocks from the euro area Economic Sentiment Indicator and applying them in the ECB’s main macroeconomic projection model suggests that confidence shocks had a positive impact on business investment growth in the last two years and a negative one in 2019.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
20 June 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box analyses recent developments in the financial account of the euro area balance of payments. In 2018, the euro area recorded net financial outflows of 2.7% of GDP amid an overall decline in gross cross-border financial flows. Portfolio investment, particularly in debt securities, continued to be affected by the Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme. At the same time, the euro area recorded a retrenchment in foreign direct investment flows, mainly reflecting transactions vis-à-vis the United States, most likely linked to the US tax reform.
JEL Code
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
19 June 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2019
Details
Abstract
Rent inflation in the euro area has been subdued since the beginning of 2018, notwithstanding dynamics house price developments, and appears as a factor mitigating services and underlying inflation. Several factors affecting rent formation, such as low financing costs and a low-yield environment, may have contributed to these developments. In addition, rent indexation prevents rent from rising freely and a large fraction of existing rental contracts are not subject to rent increases. Relatively subdued rent inflation in the euro area is mainly due to low inflation and a limited turnover in rental contracts.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
19 June 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2019
Details
Abstract
In this article we look at the euro area labour market using the framework underlying the Beveridge curve, which captures the negative relationship between the unemployment rate and the job vacancy rate. The Beveridge curve shows that, at a given moment in time, there are jobs vacant and people unemployed, while the shape and the position of the curve provide important information about the functioning of the labour market. There are two key concepts associated with the Beveridge curve: labour market tightness and matching efficiency. Labour market tightness is the number of vacant posts per each unemployed person and matching efficiency reflects the market’s ability to match individuals to jobs. We analyse the importance of these two concepts for wage developments using a simple version of the search and matching model, where unemployment, wages and vacancies are jointly determined and the Beveridge curve features prominently. First, we derive two aggregate measures that encapsulate the changes in the vacancy -unemployment space: labour market tightness and matching efficiency. Second, we look at the information content behind market tightness and job matching efficiency to analyse the euro area labour market and its cyclical conditions. Third, aggregate measures of labour market tightness and efficiency are used in a standard wage Phillips curve equation to measure their marginal impact. The results support the view that labour market tightness and labour market efficiency both play a role in explaining wage developments. However, the quantitative implications for wages differ only marginally from those of the standard Phillips curve approach. Overall, labour market efficiency provides an important qualitative margin of labour market functioning that is not captured in standard wage Phillips curve specifications.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J63 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Turnover, Vacancies, Layoffs
J64 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
17 June 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box looks at periods of slowdowns during a number of euro area expansionary phases – so-called soft patches – and assesses whether these contain any information with regard to forthcoming business cycle peaks and possible subsequent recessions.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
17 June 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2019
Details
Abstract
In this article we review the evolution of euro area HICP inflation excluding energy and food since the Great Financial Crisis through the lens of the Phillips curve. This period is particularly interesting, as the euro area experienced two recessions (in 2008-2009 and 2011-2014) and a protracted episode of low inflation from 2013 onwards. We estimate a large set of Phillips curve models for the euro area and review the interpretation of inflation developments that they provide over time. We highlight both the advantages and some of the limitations of this type of analysis. We find that our models can account for much of the weakness in underlying inflation between 2013 and mid-2017, but that they cannot account for the most recent weakness in underlying inflation.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
6 June 2019
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
25 April 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2019
Details
Abstract
The evidence presented in this box suggests that the leading and pro-cyclical properties of real M1 for real GDP remain a robust stylised fact for the euro area. Moreover, the box documents that these properties seem to reflect the information content of narrow money, beyond the influence of interest rates. Finally, the box presents model-based evidence indicating that despite the recent deceleration, recent real M1 developments do not point to risks of a recession in the euro area up to early 2020.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
25 April 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box presents a methodology to disentangle four main drivers of EMEs currencies swings: spillovers from US shocks, global risk appetite, interest rate effects and idiosyncratic domestic shocks. The main finding is that while the sell-off - between January and August 2018 - was mainly related to US and global risk factors, the recovery since then is driven by improved domestic conditions.
JEL Code
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
25 April 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box reviews basic characteristics of the Asian tech sector and shows that it has played an important role in the recent weakness in China’s trade. It also suggests that the trend in the global tech cycle associated with weaker trade in Asia may be bottoming out.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
23 April 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2019
Details
Abstract
This article compares the fiscal rule framework in the euro area with the frameworks in the fiscally more integrated United States and Switzerland, with the aim of drawing lessons for ways in which fiscal rules could be reformed in European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Both the United States and Switzerland have a history of balanced budget rules that help stabilise government debt in individual states/cantons at moderate and broadly comparable levels. The recent shift towards balanced budget rules in the euro area is an important achievement in this direction, and has contributed to better average underlying budgetary positions. Still, the fiscal rule framework needs to be rendered more effective in reducing high levels of government debt and their dispersion across the euro area. Reducing the heterogeneity of government debt positions is also an important prerequisite for setting up a well-governed common macroeconomic stabilisation function at the centre of EMU in case of deep economic crises. This in turn would help to contain the procyclicality of fiscal rules at the country level.
JEL Code
H61 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Budget, Budget Systems
H74 : Public Economics→State and Local Government, Intergovernmental Relations→State and Local Borrowing
H77 : Public Economics→State and Local Government, Intergovernmental Relations→Intergovernmental Relations, Federalism, Secession
21 March 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the seventh and eighth reserve maintenance periods of 2018, which ran from 31 October 2018 to 18 December 2018 and from 19 December 2018 to 29 January 2019 respectively.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
21 March 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box looks at the current phase of the business cycle in major non-euro area advanced economies with a view to assessing the factors behind the transition to weaker growth.It shows that in several key advanced economies the output gap is currently in positive territory, with activity still expanding faster than potential. Although growth in non-euro area advanced economies has been slowing, signals of a severe slowdown or recession appear contained. This notwithstanding, downside risks abound and have increased lately.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
21 March 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019
Details
Abstract
The difference between the average interest rate that governments pay on their debt and the nominal growth rate of the economy (i-g) is a key variable for debt dynamics and sovereign sustainability analysis. Recently, i-g has turned negative in most advanced economies, including euro area sovereigns. Empirically, the relevant interest rate-growth differential for public debt dynamics above has been positive for advanced mature economies over longer periods. In particular, i-g can quickly reverse in crisis times, especially for countries with high debt burdens and/or not perceived by markets as safe havens. Overall, In the euro area, the current low interest rate-growth differentials on government debt should not be taken as an incentive for higher debt levels, especially where fiscal space is constrained.
JEL Code
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
21 March 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019
Details
Abstract
Harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICPs) are regularly updated for changes in consumption weights and the items included, and on occasion also for methodological improvements. One such improvement is a change in the way the price index for package holidays is calculated in the HICP for Germany, which was implemented with the HICP release for January 2019. This has led to revisions of annual rates of change not only for Germany, but also for the euro area as a whole.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
19 March 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019
Details
Abstract
Harmonised consumer price indices (HICPs) for food, industrial goods, services and energy are measures the ECB uses for its more detailed analysis of inflation in the euro area. With the release of HICPs for January 2019, these analytical groups – special aggregates – have been improved. They are now calculated from a more detailed classification of products. Another recent enhancement is the extended use of price data collected in form of supermarket scanner data and via web-scraping.
JEL Code
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
19 March 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box highlights the importance of the labour market to sustain economic growth since the beginning of the recovery and underlines the current labour market strength in the face of the recent slowdown in real GDP growth.
JEL Code
C13 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Estimation: General
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
18 March 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019
Details
Abstract
Following the Governing Council’s decision in December 2018 to end net asset purchases under the Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme (APP), this article reviews the implementation and effects of the asset purchases. The APP has proved to be an adaptable and effective instrument to ease monetary and financial conditions, foster economic recovery, counteract disinflationary pressures and anchor inflation expectations, thereby supporting a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation towards price stability. The APP has been part of a package of policy measures together with negative interest rates on the deposit facility, forward guidance and targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs), jointly creating synergies that have enhanced the effectiveness of each of the package’s individual components. From an implementation viewpoint, the Eurosystem ensured that asset purchases were conducted smoothly and flexibly by striving for market neutrality and mitigating unintended side effects for market functioning. Whereas net asset purchases have come to an end, principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP will continue to be reinvested as this, together with enhanced forward guidance, provides the monetary accommodation that the Governing Council judges to be required for the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
7 March 2019
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
7 February 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2019
Details
Abstract
Inflation projections are based on models, assumptions and expert judgement. These include assumptions regarding the future evolution of oil prices, which mainly affect energy prices. Oil prices and oil futures have moved down significantly since autumn 2018, below the assumptions of the December 2018 Eurosystem staff projections. This box documents the mechanical implications of this shift for the projections of the energy component of HICP inflation.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
6 February 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2019
Details
Abstract
The article describes the main transmission channels of the spillovers of national fiscal policies to other countries within a monetary union and investigates their magnitude using different models.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
6 February 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2019
Details
Abstract
Against the background of large swings in oil prices in recent months, the box assesses the key drivers of oil market developments. While demand has been relatively stable, supply factors have been the main driving force behind recent oil price volatility.
JEL Code
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
5 February 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2019
Details
Abstract
For two decades the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) has been collecting point forecasts and probability distributions for euro area-wide HICP inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate at different horizons. This article documents the evolution of the SPF through the changing economic landscape of the past twenty years, including the Great Moderation, with relatively high economic growth and stable inflation, the financial crisis and, more recently, a prolonged period of subdued inflationary pressures. Analyses show that the strong and persistent shocks in the past ten years have created challenges for the stability of the economic relationships and mean reversion tendencies on which forecasts tend to be based. They also suggest that in 2009 there was a lasting increase in forecasters’ assessments of uncertainty across all variables and horizons. Learning from the SPF has remained a useful input for the ECB’s economic analysis and monetary policy.
JEL Code
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
4 February 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2019
Details
Abstract
Activity in the euro area is expected to continue to expand at a moderate pace, while more elevated uncertainty points to intensified downside risks to the growth outlook. In the context of a maturing business cycle, growth in both private consumption and business investment are expected to continue, despite a more uncertain environment. Nevertheless, the resilience of the domestic demand components, in particular investment, could be particularly challenged by increasing global uncertainty related inter alia to an escalation in trade tensions.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
27 December 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2018
Details
Abstract
On 21 November 2018 the European Commission released its opinions on the draft budgetary plans (DBPs) of euro area governments for 2019, together with an analysis of the budgetary situation in the euro area as a whole. Each opinion includes an assessment of the compliance of the relevant plan with the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). This exercise is important as it assesses whether countries have incorporated into their plans the country-specific recommendations for fiscal policies that were addressed to them under the 2018 European Semester, as adopted by the Economic and Financial Affairs Council on 13 July 2018. These recommendations propose, among other things, that countries with high ratios of government debt to GDP aim for a sufficiently fast reduction in indebtedness. This would raise their resilience in a future economic downturn.
JEL Code
H60 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→General
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
27 December 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB's monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth reserve maintenance periods of 2018, which ran from 1 August to 18 September 2018 and from 19 September to 30 October 2018 respectively. Throughout this period the interest rates on the main refinancing operations (MROs), the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility remained unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and ˆ’0.40% respectively. In parallel, the Eurosystem continued to purchase public sector securities, covered bonds, asset-backed securities and corporate sector securities as part of its asset purchase programme (APP), with a target of €30 billion of purchases on average per month until the end of September and €15 billion as of October.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
21 December 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2018
Details
Abstract
Growth in economic activity has moderated significantly in the euro area since the end of 2017. Indeed, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area fell to 0.2% in the third quarter of 2018, down from 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2017. This box assesses the factors which are contributing to that slowdown and looks at whether it should be considered a surprise. In particular, it looks at whether the underlying factors are temporary or of a more permanent nature, whether they have originated within the euro area or externally, and whether the slowdown has been driven by a weakness in demand or a tightening of supply conditions.
JEL Code
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
20 December 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2018
Details
Abstract
The wage drift measures deviations in developments in actual wages from developments in negotiated wages. It is an important element in the macroeconomic analysis of employee compensation because it should be closely linked to cyclical developments in the labour market. In a tightening labour market, employers might be compelled to offer pay scales that are higher than those under collective agreements, to promote employees to higher bands within collectively agreed pay scales, or simply to pay bonuses on top of agreed wages as a way to reward and retain employees. Given recent protracted declines in unemployment and increasing signs of labour shortages, this box reviews the role of the wage drift in recent developments in employee compensation.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
13 December 2018
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
8 November 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box analyses the impact of the Eurosystem's asset purchase programme (APP) on the growing market for 'green bonds'. It describes the composition of the Eurosystem's green bond holdings and assesses developments in prices and outstanding volumes of green bonds, before discussing the extent to which these may have been affected by the APP.
JEL Code
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
Q59 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Other
E59 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Other
8 November 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box reviews the characteristics of intangible assets and looks at a number of implications of their increasing importance. It finds that investment in intangible assets has increased in importance in the euro area, both in absolute terms and relative to tangible assets. Investment in intangibles enables productivity gains and can explain part of the gap between firms' investment in tangible assets and Tobin's Q. At the same time, the specific nature of intangible assets poses challenges as regards the measurement of activity, profits and capital stock, as well as making it less easy to use those assets as collateral.
JEL Code
D25 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
7 November 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of an ad hoc ECB survey of leading euro area companies looking at the impact that digitalisation has on the economy. Overall, companies regard digitalisation as having a positive impact on their sales and productivity, mainly because it provides better access to customers, facilitates the sharing of knowledge and makes production processes more efficient. They also see digitalisation increasing their flexibility when it comes to price setting. Most companies, particularly manufacturers, tend to regard digitalisation as reducing costs and increasing margins, but retailers are more likely to see input costs increasing and margins being squeezed. Finally, companies report that digitalisation is having a small negative impact on employment, while emphasising the importance of retraining and upskilling.
JEL Code
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
E00 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→General
6 November 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2018
Details
Abstract
The housing market has important macroeconomic and macroprudential implications for the euro area economy. In view of the duration of the ongoing upturn in euro area house prices and residential investment, which started at the end of 2013, analysing the state of the housing market is particularly informative. This article discusses the ongoing housing market upturn, from a chronological and fundamental perspective. It also explores a selected set of indicators that can potentially inform on the state of the housing market, elaborating on the demand and supply factors underpinning the current upturn, as well as their relative importance.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
5 November 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2018
Details
Abstract
Potential output is typically seen by economic analysts as the highest level of economic activity that can be sustained over the long term. Changes in potential output can be driven by factors such as labour supply, capital investment and technological innovation. Recent estimates by international institutions suggest that the euro area economy is currently operating close to its potential. The ongoing economic expansion appears to have largely absorbed the spare capacity created by the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis. At the same time, the estimated rate of potential output growth also appears to have recovered most of its pre-crisis momentum, underpinned mainly by an expansion of the labour force, a decline in trend unemployment and stronger productivity gains. Looking ahead, projections by international institutions suggest that actual euro area GDP growth will continue to outpace potential growth in the near term. Hence, supply constraints are likely to become increasingly binding going forward, which would be conducive to a gradual strengthening of euro area inflation.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
27 September 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB's monetary policy operations during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2018, which ran from 3 May to 19 June 2018 and from 20 June to 31 July 2018 respectively. Throughout this period the interest rates on the main refinancing operations (MROs), the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility remained unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and −0.40% respectively.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
27 September 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2018
Details
Abstract
As financial markets became progressively more integrated internationally over the past decades, economists wondered to what extent policymakers can isolate domestic financial conditions from external factors. This article reviews the terms of this debate and provides fresh evidence on the co-movement in capital flows and stock prices across a panel of 50 advanced and emerging economies. In particular, the article focuses on the relative importance of global risk and US monetary policy for the global financial cycle and touches upon the implications for the exchange rate regime. Global risk aversion emerges as a significant driver of capital flows and stock returns and its impact is amplified by capital account openness, but not necessarily by the exchange rate regime, which matters only for asset prices, not for capital flows. The quantitative relevance of US monetary policy and the US dollar exchange rate seems to be episodic. In particular, the correlation between US interest rates and capital flows throughout the crisis is positive, rather than negative as the theory would predict, indicating the need for further empirical analysis of the role of US monetary policy as the driver of the global financial cycle. The article also finds that financial market tensions have been typically synchronised between the euro area and the United States but that financial conditions in the two areas have often decoupled. Overall, this confirms that the effectiveness of the ECB’s monetary policy has not been impaired by the global financial cycle.
JEL Code
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
26 September 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2018
Details
Abstract
The global trading landscape has changed rapidly in recent months. Announcements of tariffs by the US Administration and retaliation by its trading partners have raised concerns about a possible 'trade war' and, potentially, a broader reversal of globalisation. On 1 March the US Administration announced tariffs of 25% on imports of steel and 10% on imports of aluminium from a wide range of countries. The first wave of tariffs relating to technology transfers on Chinese imports took effect on 6 July, followed by the announcement of retaliation in kind by the Chinese authorities. In response to the Chinese retaliation, the US Administration threatened to impose additional tariffs. In parallel, the EU and Canada implemented retaliatory measures against the US tariffs on steel and aluminium. Finally, the US Administration initiated a new investigation of imports of cars, trucks and auto parts (to determine their effects on national security) which could result in additional tariffs. Recently, however, there have also been some signs of a reduction in trade tensions resulting from a meeting between US and EU officials as well as the new NAFTA arrangements between the United States and Mexico.
JEL Code
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
25 September 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box looks at the evolution of the fiscal impact of the financial sector support measures taken in the ten years since the financial crisis struck. It takes stock of the fiscal costs of the crisis and the extent to which the recovery has helped to recoup them. This is done by focusing on the measures' impact on deficits and debt, and on the state guarantees granted to banks and other financial institutions. Steps have been taken since the crisis to improve the supervision of the financial sector, the orderly resolution of failing financial institutions, the sustainability of public finances and the resilience of sovereigns, for example by establishing bodies like the Single Supervisory Mechanism, the Single Resolution Mechanism and the European Fiscal Board.
JEL Code
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
H12 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Crisis Management
H62 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Deficit, Surplus
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
25 September 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2018
Details
Abstract
Private sector inflation expectations are a key component of a broad range of indicators that the ECB considers when determining the appropriate monetary policy stance for achieving its price stability objective. Inflation expectations can not only affect inflation itself through the wage and price-setting processes, but also serve as a useful cross-check on the ECB’s and the Eurosystem’s own projections. This article focuses on market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations, which are timely indicators derived from the prices of instruments that are traded in financial markets and linked to future inflation outcomes. It reviews recent developments in the information that can be extracted from different types of market-based indicator, starting from the period leading up to the ECB’s announcement of its expanded asset purchase programme (APP). The fall in market-based indicators of longer-term inflation expectations between 2014 and mid-2016 was consistent across major jurisdictions, possibly reflecting global concerns about weak aggregate demand and associated disinflationary pressures. Their subsequent recovery has been driven by a partial dissipation of these concerns and, in particular, a significant improvement in the euro area macroeconomic environment. The lion’s share of the movement in longer-term inflation expectations over the past few years has stemmed from the inflation risk component of these indicators, suggesting that the balance of risks to the inflation outlook has been one of the main drivers. Indeed, information extracted from the prices of inflation options implies that the risk-neutral probability of deflation increased noticeably in late 2014 and early 2015, before declining more recently.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
24 September 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2018
Details
Abstract
Oil prices affect private consumption through direct and indirect channels. An increase in oil prices affects households' purchasing power directly through higher prices for oil-based energy products (e.g. petrol, heating oil). In the euro area about one-third of the economy's total oil use is in the form of final consumption, i.e. the use by consumers of such products. The other two-thirds comes from oil being used in the production of non-energy goods. A rise in oil prices implies an increase in the production costs of these sectors. If these costs cannot be passed on to the final prices of these goods, there will be an indirect impact on households' purchasing power, since either wages or profits received from these sectors will be lower. Moreover, for advanced economies that produce oil (e.g. Canada, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States) the indirect effects through wages and profits from the oil-producing sector are even more important.
JEL Code
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
13 September 2018
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
22 August 2018
FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING
ECB Forum on Central Banking 2018
9 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
The degree of business cycle synchronisation, both across the euro area countries as well as between the euro area and the rest of the world, is a pertinent research question. Regarding the euro area, the endogenous optimal currency area (OCA) hypothesis suggests that the degree of business cycle synchronisation among the participating countries should increase over time as a result of deepening financial and trade integration. Individual countries should thus become less exposed to idiosyncratic shocks, facilitating the effectiveness of the single monetary policy. Against this background, this box presents and analyses several measures of business cycle synchronisation both within the euro area as well as from a global perspective.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
9 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
The euro area current account balance stood at the historically high level of 3.6% of GDP in the year up to the first quarter of 2018, slightly above the level of 3.5% of GDP recorded one year earlier. The slight increase in the current account surplus however masks significant decreases in the surplus on trade in goods (by 0.2 percentage point of GDP) as well as in the surplus on primary income (by 0.3 percentage point of GDP), which were slightly more than offset by an increase in the surplus on trade in services (by 0.5 percentage point of GDP).
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
9 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
The Chinese economy has recently been playing a key role in the global economic recovery. Recording growth rates of more than 6.5% over the past five years, China has contributed on average one-third of total global growth. It has also become one of the euro area's largest trading partners, accounting for almost 7% of total extra-euro area exports. While the world economy has benefited from China's economic strength and growing importance, a downturn would also have large repercussions for global activity. In fact, imbalances in China have been identified as a key external downside risk to the euro area and world economy. One catalyst for such a risk materialising could be the housing market.
JEL Code
C01 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→General→Econometrics
E00 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→General
9 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
This article examines the evolution of the ECB’s accountability practices during the financial crisis. After describing the challenges stemming from the crisis and changes resulting from the conferral of new supervisory tasks on the ECB, it provides evidence on how the strengthening of the ECB’s accountability has taken shape in the context of its relationship with the European Parliament in line with the latter’s key role as provided for in the Treaties. The ECB and the European Parliament, building on the accountability framework enshrined in primary law, have increased the frequency of their interactions, made innovations regarding the format and sharpened the focus of their exchanges, allowing increased scrutiny of the ECB’s policies. This has provided the ECB with more opportunities to explain its decisions and demonstrate that it is acting in accordance with its democratic mandate, which is a fundamental pillar of its legitimacy.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
9 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
Loans to households for house purchase appear to have grown at a moderate rate in recent years, despite very favourable financing conditions, the recovery in economic activity and dynamic housing markets. The annual growth rate of adjusted loans to households for house purchase was 2.8% in the first quarter of 2018, having increased gradually from slightly above 0% in 2014. However, when assessing loan developments, it should be noted that loan growth figures are usually reported in net terms, i.e. newly originated loans and the repayments of previously granted loans are considered together because statistics on balance sheet items are derived from stock figures. Given the long-term nature of mortgage contracts, loan repayments have a long-lasting impact on net figures, especially after a boom, and thus obfuscate the prevailing lending dynamics. Against this background, this box presents the results of a simulated portfolio approach which decomposes net lending flows into loan origination and the repayments of previously granted outstanding loans. Examining these two components separately provides a better view of current loan developments.
JEL Code
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
8 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
This article documents the key role that private consumption has played in recent output growth (2013-18), and asks how long the current growth in consumption can continue and whether it is self-sustaining. To that end, this article tries to identify the relative importance of different factors driving consumption, such as the recovery in the labour market, accommodative monetary policy, the 2014-15 drop in oil prices, the increase in asset prices, the easing of credit conditions and deleveraging. As the fall in consumption from 2008 to 2013 was very heterogeneous across countries, this article also sheds light on the extent to which the current expansion has actually led to a net increase in consumption over the past decade. This is relevant because private consumption is also a prime indicator of the economic well-being of households. While the growth of consumption has been low compared with previous expansions, since 2013 it has exceeded initial expectations. It has been driven mainly by the recovery in the labour market, even though unemployment in some countries and for some groups of workers remains higher than before 2008. Looking forward, as labour markets continue to improve, private consumption should expand further in all countries and for all groups of workers. Through its impact on the labour market, the ECB’s accommodative monetary policy is not only contributing to the expansion of private consumption, but also to a decrease in inequality. At the same time, there is little evidence that low interest rates have led to generalised increases in household indebtedness, supporting the sustainability of the overall economic expansion.
JEL Code
D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
7 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
In current forecasts and projections, a pick-up in labour costs is considered an important precondition for a sustained increase in underlying inflation. However, the signals provided by different labour cost indicators have been mixed for some time. While wage growth as measured by compensation per employee or by compensation per hour worked has clearly strengthened over the past two years, unit labour cost growth, i.e. wage growth adjusted for productivity growth, has remained rather flat over the same period. This begs the question: which labour cost indicators provide the relevant signal for the pass-through to, and the outlook for, underlying inflation? This box tries to shed some light on this issue by analysing the transmission of two different types of macroeconomic impulse, namely certain kinds of supply and demand shock, in the context of the New Area-Wide Model, and by comparing the results with the patterns of development observed in the recent past.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
7 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
The overnight money market plays an important role in the implementation and transmission of monetary policy in the euro area. Money market fragmentation is a sign of impairment in the transmission mechanism which merits the close monitoring of a set of suitable indicators. This article discusses concepts and measurement of fragmentation and proposes a new measure of fragmentation from a monetary policy transmission perspective.
JEL Code
D53 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Financial Markets
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
6 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
Within the EU governance framework for the coordination of economic policies, the country-specific recommendations (CSRs) represent an integral part of the annual European Semester process. They provide guidance to individual EU Member States on how to address structural reform needs and macroeconomic imbalances in the following 12-18 months. CSRs are the instrument through which EU national economic policies are treated as a matter of common concern and coordinated within the Council of the European Union in accordance with Article 121 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. They therefore constitute a cornerstone of the EU's macroeconomic imbalance procedure (MIP), whose aim is to prevent, detect and correct macroeconomic imbalances in individual countries, thereby containing risks to the smooth functioning of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Their timely and proper implementation is critical to reducing vulnerabilities and strengthening the economic resilience of the euro area and the EU as a whole, ultimately leading to higher growth potential in the long term. Against the background of the 2018 CSRs received by 27 EU Member States (i.e. all excluding Greece ), this box examines the policy recommendations addressed to 18 euro area countries, with the exception of those that pertain strictly to the implementation of the EU's Stability and Growth Pact.
JEL Code
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
28 June 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2018
Details
Abstract
On 23 May the European Commission issued its 2018 European Semester Spring Package of policy recommendations for Member States. The package includes country-specific recommendations (CSRs) for economic and fiscal policies for all EU Member States. It also covers recommendations regarding the implementation of the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) for a number of countries. With regard to fiscal policies, the recommendations focus in particular on Member States' compliance with the SGP on the basis of the Commission's 2018 spring forecast and the Commission's assessment of countries' policy plans as reflected in the updates of the stability and convergence programmes released in April. This year's European Semester exercise is important particularly with a view to avoiding any repetition of mistakes made prior to the financial crisis when sufficient fiscal buffers were not built up in economic good times and the ensuing recession was aggravated by the sudden necessity of pro-cyclical fiscal tightening. Against this background, this box examines the fiscal policy recommendations that are addressed to 18 euro area countries (i.e. excluding Greece).
JEL Code
H60 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→General
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
28 June 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2018
Details
Abstract
Following very strong growth rates in 2017, quarterly real GDP growth in the euro area moderated to 0.4% in the first quarter of 2018. The slowdown in growth at the start of the year, which appears to reflect temporary factors as well as more lasting cyclical factors, was in line with developments in economic indicators, notably survey data. Both the composite output Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) declined throughout the first quarter of 2018. However, it is important to note that, like output growth, these indicators fell back from exceptionally high levels.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
28 June 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2018
Details
Abstract
Equity capital is among the main sources of funding for euro area non-financial corporations (NFCs), making it an important factor in the transmission of monetary policy. From a central bank perspective, improving the measurement and understanding of the cost of equity is therefore essential. Unlike the cost of debt, which has declined substantially in recent years, the cost of equity has remained relatively stable at elevated levels. Results from the analysis performed in this article suggest that a persistently high “equity risk premium” (ERP) has been the key factor underpinning the high cost of equity for euro area NFCs. In fact, since the start of the global financial crisis, increases in the ERP have largely offset the fall in the yield of risk-free assets. This article argues that the widely used workhorse model to derive the cost of equity and the ERP, namely the three-stage dividend discount model, can be improved upon. In particular, incorporating short-term earnings expectations, discounting payouts to investors with a discount factor with appropriate maturity, and considering share buy-backs all yield beneficial refinements. This in turn would strengthen the theory and basis of the model and improve the robustness of its estimates. Most notably, share buy-back activity seems to matter, specifically for the level of the ERP. Notwithstanding such improvements in the modelling approach, estimating the ERP, particularly its level, remains subject to considerable uncertainty. Ultimately, such uncertainty advocates the use of a variety of models and survey estimates, as well as a focus on the dynamics, rather than on the level, of the ERP. From an applied perspective, the article demonstrates that cost of equity modelling can be used to disentangle the different drivers of changes in equity prices. This is helpful from a monetary policy perspective, as changes in equity prices can contain important information about the economic outlook and warrant monitoring for financial stability purposes. Moreover, the article shows that adding an international perspective to the analysis of the ERP for the overall market may provide valuable insights for policymakers. For instance, the greater reliance on share buy-backs among companies in the United States than those in the euro area appears to be behind some of the recent steeper decline in the ERP in the United States when compared with the ERP in the euro area.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G35 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Payout Policy
28 June 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB's monetary policy operations during the first and second reserve maintenance periods of 2018, which ran from 31 January to 13 March 2018 and from 14 March to 2 May 2018 respectively. During this period the interest rates on the main refinancing operations (MROs), the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility remained unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and 0.40% respectively.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
27 June 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box presents the main projection results of the 2018 Ageing Report for euro area countries. The 2018 Ageing Report, published on 25 May 2018, is the latest of the reports prepared every three years by the Ageing Working Group of the Economic Policy Committee. The report provides long-term projections of total public age-related costs and their components, which comprise pensions, health care, long-term care, education expenditure and unemployment benefits, for all EU countries over the period 2016 70. These projections are, of course, dependent on the underlying assumptions.
JEL Code
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
27 June 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2018
Details
Abstract
Exchange rate developments can play an important role in shaping the outlook for HICP inflation. As a change in the exchange rate can affect consumer prices with considerable delays and as the impact can depend on the economic situation at the time, assessing the exchange rate pass-through requires constant monitoring. Between April 2017 and May 2018, the exchange rate of the euro appreciated by about 8% in nominal effective terms and by about 10% against the US dollar. This box briefly recalls how exchange rate changes are transmitted to consumer prices in the euro area. The box also looks at indicators at different stages of the pricing chain to gauge the degree of the pass-through at the current juncture. The focus is on the monitoring of the pass-through to exchange rate-sensitive components of the HICP excluding energy and food.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
25 June 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2018
Details
Abstract
Headline inflation can be noisy, blurring the signal on the medium-term inflationary pressure relevant for monetary policy. To help distinguish signal from noise in the data, central banks monitor measures of underlying inflation. As there are many ways of measuring underlying inflation, it is important to understand the properties of the various indicators and what factors may account for any divergence between them. This article describes in detail the measures of underlying inflation typically used at the ECB and evaluates them against a set of empirical criteria. Our results suggest that no one measure of underlying inflation is superior in all situations as the performance of the indicators varies over time. In practice, each indicator comes with merits and shortcomings, which calls for monitoring the full range of measures of underlying inflation.
JEL Code
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
14 June 2018
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
10 May 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2018
Details
Abstract
This article establishes stylised facts about convergence and analyses the sources of economic growth in central, eastern and south-eastern European (CESEE) economies within and outside the European Union (EU).22 It also compares the performance across countries and identifies the challenges that these economies face on the way to further advancing convergence. Although all CESEE economies have converged towards the most advanced EU economies since 2000, progress has been heterogeneous. While some countries have experienced fast economic growth and a speedy catching-up, for others the catching-up process has been rather slow. Economic convergence has been much faster in the CESEE countries that became members of the EU (including those which later joined the euro area) than in the Western Balkan countries that are currently EU candidates or potential candidates. Convergence was particularly rapid before the global financial crisis, but slowed down thereafter. The article identifies several factors that are common to the most successful countries in the region in terms of the pace of convergence since 2000. These include (inter alia) improvements in institutional quality, external competitiveness and innovation, increases in trade openness, high or improving levels of human capital, and relatively high investment rates. Looking ahead, accelerating and sustaining convergence in the region will require further efforts to enhance institutional quality and innovation, reinvigorate investment, and address the adverse impact of population ageing. For EU candidates and potential candidates, EU accession prospects might constitute an anchor for reform momentum – in particular, but not exclusively, in the key area of enhancing institutional quality – and thus support the long-term growth prospects and real convergence of these countries.
JEL Code
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
10 May 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2018
Details
Abstract
This article discusses the concept of risk sharing, which generally refers to the notion that economic agents, such as households and firms, attempt to insure their consumption streams against fluctuations in the business cycle of their country, i.e. they try to “smooth out” changes in their consumption resulting from economic shocks. The article then considers what proportion of an economic shock in the euro area can be smoothed, and compares this with the situation in the United States. While a comparison of the degree of risk sharing between the euro area and the United States needs to be seen against the background of different institutional and political architectures, it nevertheless offers potentially interesting economic insights. The article shows that, while in the euro area around 80% of a shock to GDP growth in a given country remained unsmoothed over the period 1999-2016, thus resulting in sizeable differences in consumption growth across countries, in the United States at most 40% of a shock to state-specific GDP was unsmoothed over the same period. The article also evaluates the relative importance of the main risk sharing channels, i.e. the credit, capital and fiscal channels, as well as the role of European institutions. It shows that, in the euro area, risk sharing takes place mainly via the capital channel, i.e. through cross-border holdings of financial assets. Finally, the article puts the empirical results into the perspective of the ongoing debate on enhancing the institutional architecture of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). It calls for euro area countries to make their economies, banking sectors and public finances less vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks. The article explains how efficient and integrated financial markets are a core prerequisite for effective private risk sharing in the euro area. It also shows how the euro area would benefit from a central fiscal stabilisation function to support national economic stabilisers in the presence of large economic shocks and thereby make EMU more resilient.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
10 May 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2018
Details
Abstract
The euro area's international investment position (i.i.p.) improved further in 2017. The recent improvement in the euro area's net i.i.p. was mainly driven by net financial transactions – reflecting the euro area’s current account surplus – and developments in asset prices. As regards financial instruments, the improvement in the euro area's net i.i.p. was mainly due to a shift in portfolio debt securities from a net liability to a net asset position.
JEL Code
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
10 May 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box aims to illustrate the difficulties in measuring slack in the euro area economy and the high uncertainty surrounding the estimates. A model-based estimate illustrates the point by suggesting an output gap that is close to zero, although surrounded by a high degree of uncertainty. Recent labour supply shocks are likely to be supporting the growth of both potential and actual output. The broad measure of labour underutilisation suggests that slack was larger during the financial crisis and over the recovery than indicated by the headline unemployment rate.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J20 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→General
J64 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
8 May 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2018
Details
Abstract
This article reviews the impact of the ECB’s corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP) on corporate bond markets and the financing of euro area non-financial corporations (NFCs). It finds that the CSPP has led to a significant easing in financing conditions for euro area NFCs, including declines in corporate bond spreads, improved supply conditions in the corporate bond primary market and increased bank lending to NFCs that do not have access to bond-based financing. The operational set-up of the CSPP, in particular its flexibility and adaptability, minimises any impact that could be detrimental to the functioning of the corporate bond market.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
7 May 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2018
Details
Abstract
Public support for globalisation has declined over the past decade and trade reforms have slowed. Moreover, in recent weeks the risk of rising trade tensions has surged on the back of new sets of tariffs announced by the US administration. This box discusses the possible implications of rising trade tensions for the global economy.
JEL Code
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
22 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
This article reviews the existing literature on financial constraints and their effect on investment. It also provides new evidence on this issue using a large sample of firms from 12 European countries for the period 2014-17. The data come from the ECB and European Commission survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), which focuses specifically on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The available evidence suggests that credit constraints play a crucial role in the investment decisions of non-financial corporations.
JEL Code
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
22 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
Timely and reliable statistics are essential for economic analysis. This box reviews and assesses the reliability of Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate of quarterly GDP growth for the euro area, which was introduced at the beginning of 2016. It was a welcome development in terms of the continuous efforts to improve Europe’s statistical landscape given that the euro area’s single monetary policy is dependent on timely, reliable and comparable indicators that accurately reflect economic developments. To further support a more thorough analysis of macroeconomic developments at euro area level few challenges remain and some improvements are desirable such as the development of relevant euro area and country-level statistics soon after the end of the reference quarter. It is also important to enhance the quality of the source data that are used as inputs for preliminary flash estimates (e.g. short-term statistics on services). These improvements will ultimately increase the reliability of preliminary flash estimates and make them more useful, thereby facilitating more detailed economic analysis.
JEL Code
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
22 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box assesses to what extent changes in seasonality and idiosyncratic price changes (defined as outliers) can explain recent short-term volatility in the profile of euro area HICP inflation excluding food and energy.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
22 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
The box looks at the fiscal policy stance in the euro area during past expansionary periods and the extent to which good economic times have been used to build fiscal buffers. It argues that the midly countercyclical or broadly netrual stance that prevailed during the expansionary phase before the financial crisis was not sufficient to built adequate buffers fo the following recession.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H60 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→General
22 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
The European Commission’s 2018 assessment of macroeconomic imbalances and progress on reforms provides confirmation that greater efforts are needed in many EU Member States in order to advance economic growth and resilience on a more sustainable basis.
JEL Code
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
22 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB's monetary policy operations during the seventh and eighth reserve maintenance periods of 2018, which ran from 1 November to 19 December 2017 and from 20 December 2017 to 30 January 2018 respectively. During this period, the interest rates on the main refinancing operations (MROs), the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility remained unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
22 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
In the euro area, there has been an increasing reliance on part-time work. The share of part-time workers is now about 22% of total employment, and part-time work has accounted for about one quarter of net employment growth over the euro area labour market recovery (starting in the second quarter of 2013). This box examines the latest developments and the characteristics of the two main groups of part-time workers: underemployed and non-underemployed part-time workers.
JEL Code
J01 : Labor and Demographic Economics→General→Labor Economics: General
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
21 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
Oil prices increased from around USD 45 per barrel at end-June 2017 to about USD 65 per barrel at the beginning of March 2018. The main drivers of this increase were stronger than expected growth in global demand, the strategy adopted by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC countries to adjust their production – partly offset by rising US production – and geopolitical events. This box analyses these factors, based on a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, and assesses whether they are likely to persist.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
F53 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Agreements and Observance, International Organizations
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
20 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
This article examines the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of population ageing in the euro area and looks at how pension reforms can help to address these challenges. According to Eurostat’s latest projections, population ageing is set to continue and even intensify in the euro area over the next few decades. This ongoing process, which stems from increases in life expectancy and low fertility rates, is widely expected to lead to a decline in the labour supply and productivity losses, as well as behavioural changes, and is likely to have an adverse effect on potential growth. Moreover, by causing increases in precautionary savings, ageing can be expected to have a dampening impact on interest rates over an extended period of time. Population ageing also entails changes in relative prices, mainly owing to shifts in demand, with demand for services rising. Furthermore, euro area countries are also projected to experience further upward pressure on public spending on pensions, health care and long-term care as their populations age. Although many euro area countries implemented pension reforms following the sovereign debt crisis, further reforms appear to be necessary in order to ensure fiscal sustainability in the long run. In this respect, measures that increase the retirement age can be expected to dampen the adverse macroeconomic effects of ageing, as they will have a favourable impact on the labour supply and domestic consumption. In contrast, increasing the contribution rate or reducing the benefit ratio could have less favourable macroeconomic implications.
JEL Code
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J14 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of the Elderly, Economics of the Handicapped, Non-Labor Market Discrimination
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
19 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
The liquidity of euro area sovereign bond markets is important for the transmission of the ECB’s monetary policy. In particular, a high degree of liquidity fosters the link between the ECB’s monetary policy decisions, the yield curve, financial asset prices in general, and the overall cost and flow of finance in the economy. The liquidity of sovereign bond markets needs to be monitored more closely since the implementation of the ECB’s public sector purchase programme (PSPP), under which a significant share of outstanding euro area sovereign bonds has been bought. Against this background, this box presents some of the market liquidity indicators that the ECB monitors regularly. Overall, the indicators suggest that liquidity conditions in sovereign bond markets have not deteriorated since the start of the PSPP (on 9 March 2015).
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
8 February 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2018
Details
Abstract
House price increases over the past few years may have implications for housing affordability. This box discusses some selected indicators of affordability both at the macro and micro level, and investigate the effects for renters, owner and potential buyers.
JEL Code
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
7 February 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2018
Details
Abstract
This article examines the main factors behind the recent changes in euro area labour supply and how they have influenced employment developments. It finds that the increasing supply from older people and women, as well as immigration, have had a significant influence on employment growth during the economic recovery. Both migration and the numbers of older people and women in or seeking work have been driven by long-term trends and structural changes, while migration has also been affected by several cyclical factors. In the medium to longer term, labour supply is expected to decline as the population ages. This calls for policies to support labour force and employment growth, for example by helping the long-term unemployed, migrants and other groups whose participation rates remain low, to enter or return to the labour market, or find jobs that better match their skills.
JEL Code
J01 : Labor and Demographic Economics→General→Labor Economics: General
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
J61 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Geographic Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers
6 February 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2018
Details
Abstract
Growth in the consumption of durable goods has been very strong in recent years. During the financial crisis, durable goods consumption contracted sharply, although the car scrappage schemes in several euro area countries provided some relief by encouraging purchases of new cars (e.g. in 2009). Since 2013, durable goods consumption has again grown vigorously, pushing up growth in overall consumption. The recovery observed in real disposable incomes and the easing of financing conditions have both boosted households’ appetite for durable goods, particularly in those euro area countries that were more affected by the financial crisis.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
5 February 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2018
Details
Abstract
Following the passing of legislation on the US tax reform towards the end of last year, this box summarises its main features and assesses the channels via which the reform may affect the US macroeconomy. It also discusses possible spillovers and implications from a European perspective.
JEL Code
H25 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Business Taxes and Subsidies
H87 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→International Fiscal Issues, International Public Goods
28 December 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2017
28 December 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2017
28 December 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2017
28 December 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2017
22 December 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2017
21 December 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2017
20 December 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2017
14 December 2017
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
9 November 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2017
9 November 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2017
9 November 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2017
9 November 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2017
21 September 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2017
21 September 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 06, 2017
21 September 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 06, 2017
19 September 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 06, 2017
19 September 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2017
18 September 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 06, 2017
18 September 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 06, 2017
7 September 2017
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
3 August 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 05, 2017
3 August 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 05, 2017
3 August 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 05, 2017
2 August 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 05, 2017
1 August 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 05, 2017
31 July 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 05, 2017
22 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2017
22 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2017
22 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2017
22 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 04, 2017
22 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2017
21 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2017
21 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2017
20 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2017
19 June 2017
OTHER PUBLICATION
19 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2017
8 June 2017
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
11 May 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2017
11 May 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2017
11 May 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2017
10 May 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2017
10 May 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2017
9 May 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2017
8 May 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2017
23 March 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2017
23 March 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2017
23 March 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2017
22 March 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2017
21 March 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2017
20 March 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2017
20 March 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2017
9 March 2017
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
2 February 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2017
2 February 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2017
2 February 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2017
2 February 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2017
2 February 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2017
30 January 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2017
22 December 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2016
22 December 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2016
22 December 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2016
22 December 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2016
22 December 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2016
20 December 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2016
19 December 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2016
8 December 2016
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
22 December 2016
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
3 November 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2016
3 November 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2016
2 November 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2016
2 November 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2016
31 October 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2016
22 September 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2016
22 September 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2016
22 September 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2016
21 September 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2016
21 September 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2016
20 September 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2016
8 September 2016
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
4 August 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2016
4 August 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2016
4 August 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2016
3 August 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2016
3 August 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2016
2 August 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2016
2 August 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2016
1 August 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2016
15 July 2016
OTHER PUBLICATION
16 June 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2016
16 June 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2016
16 June 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2016
16 June 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2016
15 June 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2016
14 June 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2016
13 June 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2016
2 June 2016
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
5 May 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2016
5 May 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2016
5 May 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2016
4 May 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2016
3 May 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2016
2 May 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2016
24 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
24 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
24 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
24 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
24 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
24 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
24 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
23 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
22 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
21 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
10 March 2016
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
4 February 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2016
4 February 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2016
2 February 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2016
1 February 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2016
12 January 2016
OTHER PUBLICATION
17 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
17 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
17 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
17 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
17 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
16 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
16 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
14 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
14 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
3 December 2015
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
5 November 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2015
5 November 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2015
5 November 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2015
5 November 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2015
5 November 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2015
3 November 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2015
2 November 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2015
17 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
17 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
17 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
17 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
17 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
16 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
16 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
15 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
15 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
14 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
3 September 2015
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
30 July 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2015
30 July 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2015
30 July 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2015
29 July 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2015
28 July 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2015
27 July 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2015
24 July 2015
OTHER PUBLICATION
7 July 2015
OTHER PUBLICATION
18 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
18 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
18 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
18 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
18 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
18 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
18 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
18 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
17 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
16 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
15 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
3 June 2015
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
30 April 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2015
30 April 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2015
30 April 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2015
29 April 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2015
28 April 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2015
19 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
19 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
19 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
19 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
19 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
19 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
17 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
17 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
16 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
5 March 2015
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
5 February 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2015
4 February 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2015
11 December 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2014
11 December 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2014
11 December 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2014
11 December 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2014
11 December 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2014
11 December 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2014
11 December 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2014
4 December 2014
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
31 October 2014
FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING
ECB Forum on Central Banking 2014
9 October 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2014
9 October 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2014
9 October 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2014
9 October 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2014
9 October 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2014
4 September 2014
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
1 September 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2014
1 September 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2014
1 September 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2014
1 September 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2014
1 September 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2014
1 September 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2014
1 September 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2014
1 September 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2014
14 August 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2014
14 August 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2014
14 August 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2014
14 August 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2014
14 August 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2014
14 August 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2014
14 August 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2014
10 July 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2014
10 July 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2014
10 July 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2014
10 July 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2014
10 July 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2014
10 July 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2014
10 July 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2014
10 July 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2014
10 July 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2014
10 July 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2014
12 June 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2014
12 June 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2014
12 June 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2014
12 June 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2014
12 June 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2014
12 June 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2014
12 June 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2014
12 June 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2014
12 June 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2014
6 June 2014
OTHER PUBLICATION
5 June 2014
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
26 May 2014
OTHER PUBLICATION
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
15 May 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2014
15 May 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2014
15 May 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2014
15 May 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2014
15 May 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2014
15 May 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2014
15 May 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2014
15 May 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2014
10 April 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2014
10 April 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2014
10 April 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2014
10 April 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2014
10 April 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2014
10 April 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2014
10 April 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2014
10 April 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2014
10 April 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2014
13 March 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2014
13 March 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2014
13 March 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2014
13 March 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2014
13 March 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2014
13 March 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2014
13 March 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2014
6 March 2014
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
21 February 2014
OTHER PUBLICATION
13 February 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2014
13 February 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2014
13 February 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2014
13 February 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2014
13 February 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2014
13 February 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2014
13 February 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2014
13 February 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2014
13 February 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2014
13 February 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2014
13 February 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2014
12 February 2014
OTHER PUBLICATION
16 January 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2014
16 January 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2014
1 January 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2014
1 January 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2014
1 January 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2014
1 January 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2014
1 January 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2014
12 December 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2013
12 December 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2013
12 December 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2013
12 December 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2013
12 December 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2013
12 December 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2013
12 December 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2013
12 December 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2013
5 December 2013
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
14 November 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2013
14 November 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2013
14 November 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2013
14 November 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2013
14 November 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2013
14 November 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2013
14 November 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2013
14 November 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2013
14 November 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2013
14 November 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2013
6 November 2013
EURO MONEY MARKET
Related
18 October 2013
OTHER PUBLICATION
10 October 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2013
10 October 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2013
10 October 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2013
10 October 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2013
10 October 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2013
10 October 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2013
5 September 2013
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
1 September 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2013
1 September 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2013
1 September 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2013
1 September 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2013
1 September 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2013
1 September 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2013
1 September 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2013
1 September 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2013
1 September 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2013
8 August 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2013
8 August 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2013
8 August 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2013
8 August 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2013
8 August 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2013
8 August 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2013
8 August 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2013
8 August 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2013
11 July 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2013
11 July 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2013
11 July 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2013
11 July 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2013
11 July 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2013
11 July 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2013
11 July 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2013
11 July 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2013
11 July 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2013
11 July 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2013
11 July 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2013
13 June 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2013
13 June 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2013
13 June 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2013
13 June 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2013
13 June 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2013
13 June 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2013
13 June 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2013
13 June 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2013
13 June 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2013
13 June 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2013
6 June 2013
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
9 May 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2013
9 May 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2013
9 May 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2013
9 May 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2013
9 May 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2013
9 May 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2013
9 May 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2013
9 May 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2013
9 May 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2013
9 May 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2013
9 May 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2013
7 May 2013
OTHER PUBLICATION
29 April 2013
OTHER PUBLICATION
11 April 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2013
11 April 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2013
11 April 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2013
11 April 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2013
11 April 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2013
11 April 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2013
11 April 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2013
14 March 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2013
14 March 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2013
14 March 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2013
14 March 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2013
14 March 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2013
14 March 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2013
7 March 2013
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
14 February 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2013
14 February 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2013
14 February 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2013
14 February 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2013
14 February 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2013
14 February 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2013
14 February 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2013
14 February 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2013
14 February 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2013
17 January 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2013
17 January 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2013
17 January 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2013
17 January 2013
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2013
17 December 2012
OTHER PUBLICATION
13 December 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2012
13 December 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2012
13 December 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2012
13 December 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2012
13 December 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2012
13 December 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2012
13 December 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2012
13 December 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2012
6 December 2012
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
15 November 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2012
15 November 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2012
15 November 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2012
15 November 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2012
15 November 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2012
15 November 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2012
15 November 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2012
15 November 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2012
15 November 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2012
11 October 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2012
11 October 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2012
11 October 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2012
11 October 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2012
11 October 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2012
11 October 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2012
11 October 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2012
8 October 2012
OTHER PUBLICATION
28 September 2012
EURO MONEY MARKET
13 September 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2012
13 September 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2012
13 September 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2012
13 September 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2012
13 September 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2012
13 September 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2012
13 September 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2012
13 September 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2012
6 September 2012
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
9 August 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2012
9 August 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2012
9 August 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2012
9 August 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2012
9 August 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2012
9 August 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2012
9 August 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2012
8 August 2012
OTHER PUBLICATION
19 July 2012
OTHER PUBLICATION
12 July 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2012
12 July 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2012
12 July 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2012
12 July 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2012
12 July 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2012
12 July 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2012
14 June 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2012
14 June 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2012
14 June 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2012
14 June 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2012
14 June 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2012
14 June 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2012
14 June 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2012
14 June 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2012
14 June 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2012
14 June 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2012
14 June 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2012
6 June 2012
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
10 May 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2012
10 May 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2012
10 May 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2012
10 May 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2012
10 May 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2012
10 May 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2012
10 May 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2012
10 May 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2012
10 May 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2012
10 May 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2012
10 May 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2012
12 April 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2012
12 April 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2012
12 April 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2012
12 April 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2012
12 April 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2012
12 April 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2012
12 April 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2012
15 March 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2012
15 March 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2012
15 March 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2012
15 March 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2012
15 March 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2012
15 March 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2012
15 March 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2012
15 March 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2012
15 March 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2012
15 March 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2012
15 March 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2012
15 March 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2012
15 March 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2012
13 March 2012
OTHER PUBLICATION
8 March 2012
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
17 February 2012
OTHER PUBLICATION
16 February 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2012
16 February 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2012
16 February 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2012
16 February 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2012
16 February 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2012
16 February 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2012
16 February 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2012
16 February 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2012
16 February 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2012
16 February 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2012
19 January 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2012
19 January 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2012
19 January 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2012
19 January 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2012
19 January 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2012
19 January 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2012
19 January 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2012
19 January 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2012
15 December 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2011
15 December 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2011
15 December 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2011
15 December 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2011
15 December 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2011
15 December 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2011
15 December 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2011
15 December 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2011
15 December 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2011
15 December 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2011
15 December 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2011
15 December 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2011
15 December 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2011
15 December 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2011
8 December 2011
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
10 November 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2011
10 November 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2011
10 November 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2011
10 November 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2011
10 November 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2011
10 November 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2011
10 November 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2011
10 November 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2011
28 October 2011
OTHER PUBLICATION
13 October 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2011
13 October 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2011
13 October 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2011
13 October 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2011
13 October 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2011
13 October 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2011
13 October 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2011
13 October 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2011
13 October 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2011
4 October 2011
OTHER PUBLICATION
30 September 2011
EURO MONEY MARKET
Related
15 September 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2011
15 September 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2011
15 September 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2011
15 September 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2011
15 September 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2011
15 September 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2011
15 September 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2011
15 September 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2011
15 September 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2011
8 September 2011
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
11 August 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2011
11 August 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2011
11 August 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2011
11 August 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2011
11 August 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2011
11 August 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2011
14 July 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2011
14 July 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2011
14 July 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2011
14 July 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2011
14 July 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2011
14 July 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2011
14 July 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2011
14 July 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2011
24 June 2011
OTHER PUBLICATION
16 June 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2011
16 June 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2011
16 June 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2011
16 June 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2011
16 June 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2011
16 June 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2011
16 June 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2011
16 June 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2011
16 June 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2011
16 June 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2011
16 June 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2011
9 June 2011
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
3 June 2011
OTHER PUBLICATION
12 May 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2011
12 May 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2011
12 May 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2011
12 May 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2011
12 May 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2011
12 May 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2011
12 May 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2011
6 May 2011
OTHER PUBLICATION
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (2) +
Select your language
14 April 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2011
14 April 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2011
14 April 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2011
14 April 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2011
14 April 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2011
14 April 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2011
14 April 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2011
10 March 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2011
10 March 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2011
10 March 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2011
10 March 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2011
10 March 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2011
10 March 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2011
10 March 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2011
10 March 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2011
10 March 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2011
10 March 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2011
10 March 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2011
3 March 2011
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
10 February 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2011
10 February 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2011
10 February 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2011
10 February 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2011
10 February 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2011
10 February 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2011
10 February 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2011
10 February 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2011
10 February 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2011
10 February 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2011
4 February 2011
OTHER PUBLICATION
20 January 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2011
20 January 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2011
20 January 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2011
20 January 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2011
20 January 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2011
20 January 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2011
20 January 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2011
20 January 2011
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2011
21 December 2010
EURO MONEY MARKET
9 December 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2010
9 December 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2010
9 December 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2010
9 December 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2010
9 December 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2010
9 December 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2010
9 December 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2010
9 December 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2010
9 December 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2010
2 December 2010
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
12 November 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2010
12 November 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2010
11 November 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2010
11 November 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2010
11 November 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2010
11 November 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2010
11 November 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2010
11 November 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2010
18 October 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2010
14 October 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2010
14 October 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2010
14 October 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2010
14 October 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2010
14 October 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2010
14 October 2010
OTHER PUBLICATION
23 September 2010
OTHER PUBLICATION
Related
9 September 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2010
9 September 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2010
9 September 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2010
9 September 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2010
9 September 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2010
9 September 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2010
9 September 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2010
2 September 2010
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
12 August 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2010
12 August 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2010
12 August 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2010
12 August 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2010
12 August 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2010
12 August 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2010
12 August 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2010
12 August 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2010
12 August 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2010
12 August 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2010
15 July 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2010
15 July 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2010
15 July 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2010
15 July 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2010
15 July 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2010
15 July 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2010
15 July 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2010
8 July 2010
OTHER PUBLICATION
17 June 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2010
17 June 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2010
17 June 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2010
17 June 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2010
17 June 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2010
17 June 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2010
17 June 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2010
17 June 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2010
17 June 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2010
17 June 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2010
10 June 2010
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
10 June 2010
OTHER PUBLICATION
13 May 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2010
13 May 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2010
13 May 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2010
13 May 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2010
13 May 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2010
13 May 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2010
13 May 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2010
13 May 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2010
13 May 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2010
13 May 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2010
13 May 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2010
13 May 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2010
13 May 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2010
13 May 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2010
6 May 2010
OTHER PUBLICATION
23 April 2010
OTHER PUBLICATION
15 April 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2010
15 April 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2010
15 April 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2010
15 April 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2010
15 April 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2010
15 April 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2010
15 April 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2010
15 April 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2010
8 April 2010
OTHER PUBLICATION
22 March 2010
OTHER PUBLICATION
11 March 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2010
11 March 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2010
11 March 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2010
11 March 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2010
11 March 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2010
11 March 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2010
11 March 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2010
11 March 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2010
11 March 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2010
11 March 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2010
4 March 2010
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
4 March 2010
OTHER PUBLICATION
11 February 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2010
11 February 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2010
11 February 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2010
11 February 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2010
11 February 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2010
11 February 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2010
4 February 2010
OTHER PUBLICATION
21 January 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2010
21 January 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2010
21 January 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2010
21 January 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2010
21 January 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2010
21 January 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2010
21 January 2010
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2010
14 January 2010
OTHER PUBLICATION
10 December 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2009
10 December 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2009
10 December 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2009
10 December 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2009
10 December 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2009
10 December 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2009
10 December 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2009
10 December 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2009
10 December 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2009
10 December 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2009
10 December 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2009
3 December 2009
OTHER PUBLICATION
3 December 2009
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
3 December 2009
OTHER PUBLICATION
12 November 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2009
12 November 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2009
12 November 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2009
12 November 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2009
12 November 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2009
12 November 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2009
12 November 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2009
12 November 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2009
12 November 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2009
12 November 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2009
5 November 2009
OTHER PUBLICATION
15 October 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2009
15 October 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2009
15 October 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2009
15 October 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2009
15 October 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2009
15 October 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2009
15 October 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2009
15 October 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2009
8 October 2009
OTHER PUBLICATION
24 September 2009
OTHER PUBLICATION
Related
10 September 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2009
10 September 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2009
10 September 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2009
10 September 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2009
10 September 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2009
10 September 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2009
10 September 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2009
10 September 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2009
10 September 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2009
10 September 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2009
3 September 2009
OTHER PUBLICATION
3 September 2009
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
13 August 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2009
13 August 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2009
13 August 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2009
13 August 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2009
13 August 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2009
13 August 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2009
13 August 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2009
13 August 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2009
13 August 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2009
6 August 2009
OTHER PUBLICATION
9 July 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2009
9 July 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2009
9 July 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2009
9 July 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2009
9 July 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2009
9 July 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2009
9 July 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2009
9 July 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2009
11 June 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2009
11 June 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2009
11 June 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2009
11 June 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2009
11 June 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2009
11 June 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2009
11 June 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2009
11 June 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2009