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Publications on Monetary policy

8 February 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
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Abstract
This box provides updated estimates of the euro area discretionary fiscal measures related to the support provided by euro area governments in response to the energy crisis and high inflation. It also discusses how these measures relate to climate change in the context of the December 2023 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
8 February 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
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Abstract
Financial markets and analysts significantly underestimated the pace and size of the recent increases in the key ECB interest rates. This box measures the size and dynamics of policy expectation errors. Based on information from the ECB’s Survey of Monetary Analysts, it suggests that these expectation errors were driven mainly by revisions to macroeconomic expectations, indicating that analysts perceived a broadly consistent policy reaction to macroeconomic developments.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
8 February 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
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Abstract
Historically, the financial vulnerability indicator based on the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) evolves broadly in line with bankruptcies and other insolvency measures for firms in the euro area. The current rise in vulnerabilities identified in the SAFE is driven mostly by firms in industry, construction and trade and by large firms rather than by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Increasing interest expenses are important in explaining the likelihood of firms becoming vulnerable. Balance sheet data on firms in the SAFE confirm that corporate vulnerabilities have implications for their investment rate and employment growth. This provides further insights into the transmission of monetary policy to economic activity.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
G33 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Bankruptcy, Liquidation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
8 February 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
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Abstract
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys are insightful because PMIs are released in advance of official hard data and are typically strongly correlated with these. This Box reports that after losing some predictive capacity during pandemic-related lockdowns and reopenings, the euro area composite output PMI is once again a reliable timely indicator for nowcasting euro area real GDP growth.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
8 February 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
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Abstract
Emission reduction measures have been adopted at both country and European Union (EU) levels. This box assesses the impact on euro area real GDP and inflation of green fiscal discretionary measures as included in the December 2023 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. Since these measures are unlikely to be sufficient to fully achieve the EU targets for emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable energy production, model simulations are used to illustrate the medium-term impact of alternative transition policy scenarios. These simulations suggest modest downside risks to GDP and upside risks to inflation from transition policies to achieve EU targets, but the effects depend on the transition policy mix.
JEL Code
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
Q48 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Government Policy
7 February 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
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Abstract
The natural rate of interest is defined as the real rate of interest that is neither expansionary nor contractionary. r* is unobservable and its estimation is fraught with a host of measurement and model-specification challenges. A wide range of estimates obtained from a suite of models and approaches suggests that cyclical measures of euro area r* have been edging higher recently. Yet slow-moving estimates anchored to long-run economic trends are unlikely to have risen measurably.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
26 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
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Abstract
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 70 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 2 and 10 January 2024, aggregate activity is likely to have stagnated or contracted slightly in the fourth quarter of 2023 and was expected to remain stable or grow only very modestly in the first quarter of 2024. Widespread uncertainty was said to be holding back recovery and the employment outlook deteriorating. Growth in selling prices remained moderate in the fourth quarter of 2023, with some further moderation expected in the short term amid stable or declining non-labour costs and an anticipated easing of wage growth.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
11 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023
Last updated on 30 January 2024
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Abstract
This box analyses recent developments in the net interest income of households and firms in the euro area as a whole and in the largest euro area countries, against the backdrop of rising interest rates. Net interest income is a direct channel through which the ECB transmits policy rate changes to savers and borrowers. Over the last decade net interest income has been negative for households and firms at the aggregate sectoral level. Interest-bearing assets, which affect the interest received by households and firms, and liabilities, which affect interest paid, are important drivers of developments in net interest income. Individual countries demonstrate striking differences in net interest income and interest-bearing assets and liabilities, largely due to specific structural factors.
JEL Code
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
11 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023
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Abstract
This box describes liquidity conditions and the Eurosystem’s monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth maintenance periods of 2023, from 2 August to 31 October 2023.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
11 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023
Last updated on 12 January 2024
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Abstract
The disposable income of households, as measured in the national accounts, benefited from rising labour income and continued strong growth in non-labour income in the first half of 2023. But not all components of income generate a positive cash flow for households. This mainly concerns non-labour income (excluding net fiscal income), which benefited from the exceptionally strong growth in gross operating surplus and the strong increase in financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM). These two components do not generate positive cash flow for households and may therefore not be reflected in households’ income perceptions, which recently lagged behind the positive income developments as measured in the national accounts. One indicator of growth in household income that comes closer to household perceptions is compensation of employees. Looking ahead, the negative assessment by households of recent real income growth appears to be consistent with the muted outlook for private consumption.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
11 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023
Last updated on 30 January 2024
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Abstract
According to the estimates of major international institutions, the euro area output gap remained negative or very close to zero in the aftermath of the pandemic and at the onset of the war in Ukraine, despite the rise in euro area core inflation. This contrasts with most available historical data, which show a positive association of a rise in inflation above its medium-run average with an increase in the output gap. This may reflect the fact that demand shocks have historically had a larger effect on the business cycle relative to supply shocks. However, the shocks that hit the euro area after 2020 – disruptions in supply chains and significant increases in input prices – predominantly came from the supply side of the economy. This box explores how accounting for the role of temporary supply shocks in determining potential output can restore the positive association of the output gap with high inflation after 2020. First, the box discusses the concept of potential output as used by most international organisations. It then looks at indicators that could capture recent exceptional demand and supply conditions. Lastly, using information on these indicators, the box proposes complementary slack measures that better reflect inflationary pressures in times of temporary supply shocks.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
11 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023
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Abstract
The US Treasury securities market is the largest and most liquid in the world. Recently, however, its liquidity has declined owing to a combination of factors, including monetary policy tightening and elevated uncertainty about inflation and growth. At the same time, leveraged funds have built up unusually large net short positions in the US Treasury futures market. This box provides empirical evidence that the impact of a US monetary policy shock on domestic and global bond markets may vary depending on conditions in the US Treasury market. Specifically, the results suggest that the effect of a US monetary policy shock might be stronger when market liquidity is low or when net short positions of leveraged funds are large.
JEL Code
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
10 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023
Last updated on 11 January 2024
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Abstract
The current monetary policy tightening cycle has led to increases in bank deposit rates, albeit to a lesser extent than in the past. In part this reflects the transition from negative interest rates to rates well into positive territory. When interest rates were very low, spreads between deposit and policy rates became compressed or even negative, as banks were reluctant to charge negative rates to their retail depositors. Consequently, some time was needed in the initial phase of the current tightening cycle for spreads to normalise. During that period, policy rate hikes were matched by only minor increases in deposit rates. The current round of monetary policy tightening has had an impact on portfolio allocation by incentivising shifts from overnight deposits to time deposits and bonds. It has also weakened money creation by (i) bringing credit expansion to a halt, (ii) reabsorbing money in circulation as the Eurosystem’s monetary policy portfolio contracts, and (iii) leading banks to repay central bank funding and replace it with long-term bonds. Both portfolio shifts and the contractionary monetary dynamics have resulted in negative growth rates of unprecedented size for M1 and M3.
JEL Code
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
9 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023
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Abstract
Manufacturing activity has been weak since the end of 2021, while market services activity has started to slow down more recently. This box uses a lead-lag analysis to examine how developments in manufacturing are correlated with services activity. It then assesses the implications of the recent monetary policy tightening for the near-term outlook across sectors through the lens of an empirical model. The lead-lag analysis shows that current dynamics in manufacturing contain information for near-term dynamics in services activity. The model-based assessment shows that monetary policy shocks have a larger and faster impact on manufacturing than on services and are consistent with a broadening of the impact of monetary policy tightening across sectors during 2023.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
9 November 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023
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Abstract
This box first analyses a bottom-up composite index of business activity expectations across sectors derived from the European Commission’s business survey. It then assesses the role of demand-side and supply-side drivers of the index, using disaggregated data on expectations and limits to production from the same survey. The bottom-up composite index of business activity expectations appears to be a good leading indicator of real GDP. According to the index, business activity expectations have deteriorated since mid-2022, with the decline occurring earlier than the weakening of economic growth in the euro area. An empirical model is then used to assess the impact of drivers on business activity expectations. The model captures historical business cycle patterns. It shows that recent trends in business activity expectations were driven by deteriorating demand, partly offset by improved supply. A granular model-based decomposition suggests that tightening financial conditions and flagging product demand were the main drag on business activity expectations across sectors in the third quarter of 2023.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
E10 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→General
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
8 November 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023
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Abstract
This box describes recent developments in housing rents in the euro area, also comparing them with developments in the United States. In the post-COVID period, increases in euro area rents have been moderate, despite a notable pick-up since mid-2022. This stands in contrast to the United States, where rent inflation has been a key driver of the post-pandemic inflation surge. Such differences are linked not only to measurement issues, but also to structural features of the housing market and regulatory specificities. Rent regulation is more prevalent in the euro area, where such institutional features have so far acted as a brake on rent rises.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
7 November 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023
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Abstract
This box highlights the recent inversion of the euro area and US yield curves and considers its information content for the future state of these economies. The slope of the yield curve is currently negative and the most steeply inverted it has been in decades for both the euro area and the United States. Among other factors, a negative slope may reflect investors’ expectations that the macroeconomic outlook will worsen, inflation will decline and longer-term yields will be lower as growth slows. In the past, the slope has typically had statistical predictive power for economic downturns. Recent estimates based on this indicator point to a high probability of a recession in the next 12 months in both jurisdictions. However, estimated recession probabilities are considerably lower when the models include information from additional financial indicators and oil prices, and when they account for the yield impact of the balance sheet policies of central banks. The analysis therefore highlights that a simple translation of the current historically negative yield curve slopes into a high recession probability would be an incomplete assessment.
JEL Code
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling
6 November 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023
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This box summarises the findings of an ad hoc survey of leading firms operating in the euro area, looking at current trends in global production location and input sourcing, and their impact on activity and prices. The responses indicate that firms increasingly expect to respond to heightened geopolitical risk. In the next five years, more so than in the last five years, firms expect to diversify the location of their operations and their sources of inputs, and to move operations and supply chains to countries that are geographically and geopolitically closer to the final points of sale. Many firms that source critical inputs from China are reducing this exposure. Geopolitical risk is now the most important factor behind decisions to relocate operations into the EU, while demand and cost factors still drive relocations out of the EU. Overall, the aggregate impact which relocation decisions will have on the share of value added generated by firms in the EU is unclear, but such decisions have already pushed up prices and will continue to do so – albeit to a lesser extent – in the next few years.
JEL Code
C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
L23 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Organization of Production
27 October 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023
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Abstract
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 56 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 25 September and 5 October, aggregate activity appeared to have contracted in the third quarter of 2023 and was expected to contract further in the fourth quarter. While there were still notable differences across sectors, tailwinds supporting activity in some sectors were reportedly fading and headwinds in other sectors continued to hold activity back. The growth rate of selling prices continued to slow in the third quarter of 2023 and further moderation was anticipated for the fourth quarter. This reflected a recovery of supply alongside moderating demand in some sectors, as well as relatively stable non-labour input costs. Wage growth remained strong but was expected to moderate slightly in 2024. The effect of tightening financing conditions over the past 12 months was notably greater in the industrial sector than in the services sector and was expected, on balance, to intensify in the next 12 months.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
28 September 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023
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Abstract
This box looks at the impact of financial sector support measures on euro area public finances 15 years after the great financial crisis that led to widespread government assistance for the financial sector.
JEL Code
H62 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Deficit, Surplus
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
28 September 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023
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Abstract
This box describes liquidity conditions and the Eurosystem’s monetary policy operations during the third and fourth maintenance periods of 2023, from 10 May to 1 August 2023.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
28 September 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023
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Abstract
Consumer perceptions of the factors driving inflation can be an important determinant of their economic behaviour and inflation expectations. In this context, in June 2023 the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey asked consumers what they believed was the main factor driving changes in the general level of prices for goods and services in their country over the past 12 months. Most consumers believe that price changes over the past 12 months were mainly driven by input cost factors, with corporate profits ranked second and wages third. Consumers responding that other input costs are the main driver expect inflation to be less persistent. Consumer perceptions of the factors driving inflation should continue to be monitored. As the various drivers can influence inflation persistence differently, profits or wages being perceived as more prominent drivers in the future could have implications for consumers’ medium-term inflation expectations.
JEL Code
D11 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Theory
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
28 September 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023
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Abstract
In 2022, the euro area current account balance recorded a deficit of 0.8% of euro area GDP compared with a surplus of 2.8% of GDP in 2021. This deterioration of 3.6 percentage points is the biggest annual change in the euro area current account balance on record. This article reviews developments in the current account components. It shows that most of this deterioration is expected to be temporary as it was driven by a decline in the goods trade balance on the back of sharp increases in energy import prices. The euro area current account can therefore be expected to recover, driven by a partial rebound in the terms of trade, anticipated fiscal consolidation and largely unchanged demographic factors. However, as part of the increase in energy prices will probably persist over the medium term, the euro area current account balance is likely to stay somewhat below pre-pandemic levels.
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
27 September 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023
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Abstract
In a pilot round of the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), conducted between 25 May and 26 June 2023, euro area firms were asked about climate change. Firms attach substantial importance to the potential negative impact from the physical risks of climate change. However, they are even more concerned about transition risks. Compared with physical risks, stricter climate standards provide a stronger incentive for firms to invest in climate change mitigation. Nonetheless, high financing costs and insufficient public subsidies are important obstacles to green investment. The results of the survey highlight the important role played by public loan guarantees and private sector funds in directing resources towards the greening of the economy.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
27 September 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023
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Abstract
This article considers how climate change will affect potential output – the highest level of production that an economy can sustain over the long run without driving up inflation. Higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are likely to negatively affect certain sectors, notably agriculture and tourism, and impair workers’ productivity. The green transition involves the reallocation of capital and labour across businesses and sectors. In the long run, the impact on potential output depends on the success of that reallocation and on the rate of progress of green innovation.
JEL Code
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
R11 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q57 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity Conservation, Bioeconomics, Industrial Ecology
26 September 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023
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Abstract
Banks distribute capital to equity investors either by paying dividends or by buying back shares. Such distributions of capital have ambiguous implications for monetary policy, since these lower banks’ cost of equity by signalling their soundness to investors but also reduce banks’ capital ratios and thus potentially their intermediation capacity. Since the end of the pandemic and the end of ECB Banking Supervision’s recommendation to refrain from or limit payouts, banks in the euro area have distributed capital at a rapid pace. Such distributions have been spearheaded by ambitious buyback programmes, catching up on forgone distributions in previous years, while a further increase in dividends is also likely. Payouts vary greatly across banks in terms of both overall size and composition. Individual banks tend to distribute more capital when they are more profitable and have better asset quality, capital ratios above their announced targets and more liquidity. They also tend to spread distributions over several years. We find that recent payouts have had a positive signalling effect on financial markets. Higher payout commitments have also been associated with lower bank credit supply and higher lending rates, therefore possibly contributing to the transmission of the ECB’s monetary policy tightening impulse so far.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G35 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Payout Policy
16 August 2023
FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING - CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS
10 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
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Abstract
This box reviews Eurosystem staff projections of public wages, focusing on their response to inflation. It concludes that, after experiencing a large cut in real terms in 2022, public wages are projected to grow cumulatively over the period 2023-25 at rates higher than inflation. It also shows that projections of public wages reflect substantial heterogeneity at country level. Projected nominal public wage growth is stronger in countries that have experienced high levels of inflation in the recent past, even in the absence of institutional arrangements for automatic price indexation of public wages, but is more restrained in countries with high levels of public debt.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
10 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
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Abstract
This box uses structural BVAR models applied to global macroeconomic data to provide evidence that monetary policy is transmitted more strongly to consumption in countries with higher shares of homeowners with mortgages, higher levels of household debt and higher shares of adjustable-rate mortgages, although the evidence for the latter is weaker. Since the previous hiking cycle, the shares of homeowners with mortgages and the levels of household debt have risen in the euro area, with countries increasingly resembling each other in this regard. This means that aggregate monetary policy transmission through the housing channel may, if anything, be stronger and more even across euro area countries in the current cycle than in past hiking cycles.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
9 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
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Abstract
This article presents a model-based assessment of the short to medium-term economic impact of carbon pricing aimed at mitigating climate change. It addresses the high level of uncertainty in gauging the effects of carbon price increases by employing a suite of macroeconomic models. Under the main scenario, the loss in euro area annual GDP growth is contained and the inflation impact is modest, implying a limited output/inflation trade-off for monetary policy. The scenario supports the transition to a low-carbon economy, but the implied reduction in carbon emissions makes only a limited contribution to achieving the EU’s intermediate emission reduction target for 2030. Accordingly, reaching the EU’s climate goals will require a mixture of ambitious carbon pricing, additional regulatory action and technological innovation.
JEL Code
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
4 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box describes some key measures of underlying inflation and reassesses their predictive power for euro area headline inflation over a medium-term horizon. It discusses recent developments in underlying inflation and implications for the inflation outlook. It examines how underlying inflation measures can be adjusted to filter out some of the recent extraordinary shocks to inflation. Lastly, it analyses goods and services inflation individually.
JEL Code
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
28 July 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 73 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 26 June and 5 July, aggregate activity continued to stagnate in the second quarter of 2023, with differences across sectors still notable. Activity declined in the construction and intermediate goods sectors and in related transport and logistics services. However, consumer spending was proving more resilient than many expected. The growth rate of selling prices continued to decelerate, especially in the industrial sector, as non-labour input costs stabilised. Expectations for wage growth remained strong but showed some signs of moderation when looking forwards to 2024.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
29 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box provides an analysis of the retrenchment recorded in euro area external financial flows in 2022 – the largest since the global financial crisis – making use of new, more granular data published in the euro area balance of payments and international investment position statistics. The retrenchment was most pronounced in portfolio and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Euro area investors’ retrenchment in portfolio investment in 2022 was mainly driven by investment funds, while insurance corporations and pension funds offset the reversal in outflows to some extent. As regards foreign portfolio investment in the euro area in 2022, net purchases of euro area investment fund shares dried up almost completely, while foreign investors’ appetite for euro area debt securities started to return. The retrenchment in FDI mainly reflected “financialised” transactions by multinational enterprises vis-à-vis affiliated “other financial institutions” in euro area financial centres, while FDI flows to the non-financial corporate sector remained more stable.
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
29 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
According to the recent Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), conducted between 6 March and 14 April 2023, euro area firms expect their selling prices to increase on average by 6.1% over the next 12 months. Selling price increases are expected to be higher for firms in the retail sector than for those in the non-retail sector. Input costs (mainly related to materials and energy) and financing costs are important factors for all firms when setting future selling prices. For firms in both the retail and non-retail sectors, expected increases in selling prices are higher for firms that anticipate an increase in their turnover. Manufacturing firms with higher past producer price increases expect a smaller increase in future selling prices over the next 12 months.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
29 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box examines the wage share in the euro area, which has edged down since the start of the pandemic, as workers have so far not been able to recover real wage losses amidst high inflation and robust profit margins. The decline is in most sectors, except for less contact-intensive private services and public services. The reduced wage share suggests that part of the recent terms-of-trade shock and its impact on consumer price inflation has been absorbed by workers and that second-round effects from wages on inflation have so far been relatively moderate.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E25 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
29 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box describes liquidity conditions and the Eurosystem’s monetary policy operations during the first and second maintenance periods of 2023, from 8 February to 9 May 2023.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
29 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box looks at how unit profits have contributed to the recent strengthening of euro area domestic price pressures, using national accounts data up to the first quarter of 2023. It analyses the contribution made by unit profits using a broad profit indicator based on gross operating surplus and mixed income, as well as more narrowly defined profit indicators derived from the national accounts (which are closer to business profits). It also shows how the current signals from unit profits based on national accounts data correspond to those of indicators of mark-ups and profit margins derived from corporate accounts. This analysis shows that unit profits have grown strongly of late and made a visible contribution to domestic price pressures in the euro area. This is true for both the broad indicator of unit profits and more narrowly defined profit indicators. The box also shows that in an environment characterised by surging intermediate consumption costs, it is possible for unit profits to increase strongly and have an upward effect on inflation while mark-ups and profit margin indicators derived from corporate accounts remain broadly unchanged.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
29 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box analyses sentiment indices of profits and investment that have been compiled from a new data source, namely earnings call transcripts of listed euro area firms. It shows that these data series have correlated well with standard investment and profit series over the past two decades. It also demonstrates that profit sentiment has improved since the third quarter of 2021, while corporate investment sentiment rose slightly further in the second quarter of 2023, despite tightening financing conditions. At the sectoral level, profit sentiment in the services and utilities sectors has held up better than it has in the manufacturing sector since last year. In addition, an indicator of financial risk extracted from the earnings call data shows that firms are highly concerned about rising financing costs and perceive tighter financing conditions as a clear risk.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
26 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
Since 2020 the euro area has been hit by a succession of extraordinary adverse shocks: the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, global supply chain strains, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the related energy price hike. This article reviews the main developments in economic activity between the beginning of 2020 and the end of 2022. Empirical analysis shows that demand forces related to the reopening of the economy, the strong policy support over that period and, more recently, the absorption of the adverse shocks have contributed to the post-pandemic recovery.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
19 May 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2023
Details
Abstract
The euro area’s population is projected to continue ageing and to shrink significantly over the coming generations. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the influx of migrants are leaving a mark on the short and medium-term demographic outlook for the euro area compared with the 2019 population projections. This box shows that the resulting demographic outlook is expected to have some positive impact on the growth outlook and to ease the cost-of-ageing pressures on public finances. Overall, however, demographic trends continue to pose significant challenges to the euro area economy, and these challenges should be addressed in a timely manner.
JEL Code
R23 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Regional Migration, Regional Labor Markets, Population, Neighborhood Characteristics
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
19 May 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2023
Details
Abstract
The increase in consumer goods price inflation in the euro area over the last two years was preceded by a sharp rise in producer prices. Producer price indices (PPIs) capture the prices of goods at the time when these goods leave factory gates. Simple correlation analysis suggests that the strength of the link between producer and consumer price indices can vary over time. Indicators of producer price pressures on consumer price inflation (IPPIs) are constructed using dynamic impulse responses of consumer prices to changes in producer prices (elasticities), obtained with the local projections (LP) estimation method. The IPPIs based on these elasticities and actual PPI data suggest a significant increase in underlying cost pressures over the course of 2022. The level of these pressures remained high for both non-food consumer goods and food products in early 2023. Overall, IPPIs can help to assess the strength and direction of the underlying pressures on NEIG and food prices, but they remain subject to several caveats.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
19 May 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2023
Details
Abstract
Large-scale transfers of intellectual property products (IPP) conducted by multinational enterprises in Ireland are increasingly affecting euro area output, investment and trade measures. At the time of transfer, the within-quarter impact of these inflows tends to be neutral for euro area real GDP growth, as IPP transfers are often accompanied by services imports of equal size. However, in subsequent quarters these inflows typically have a positive effect on euro area GDP growth, as they boost both the capital stock and future export streams.
JEL Code
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
F43 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Economic Growth of Open Economies
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
15 May 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box analyses the macroeconomic implications of monetary policy tightening so far, drawing on a suite of models employed at the ECB.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
5 May 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 61 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 30 March and 13 April, aggregate activity growth remained subdued in the first quarter of 2023, albeit with notable differences across sectors. Declining activity reported in the consumer goods, retail and construction sectors was offset by growth in the consumer services and capital goods sectors in particular. These developments were expected to continue in the short term, while uncertainty regarding the outlook for 2023 as a whole remained elevated. The rate of growth of selling prices continued to moderate, driven especially by developments in the energy, transport and intermediate goods sectors. Consequently, non-labour input costs stabilised for most firms. Expectations for wage growth remained strong and were broadly unchanged, with wage growth remaining the main cost concern for the surveyed companies.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box provides updated estimates on the fiscal support provided by euro area governments in response to the energy crisis and high inflation, reflecting the March 2023 ECB staff macroeconomic projections. It also gives granular information on the design and timing of these fiscal policy support measures.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the seventh and eighth maintenance periods of 2022, from 2 November 2022 to 7 February 2023.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
Market-based measures of inflation compensation and market-implied real interest rates contain important information for monetary policy analysis but are available for the euro area only for the period since 2005. However, since they are correlated with other macroeconomic and financial variables that are available for longer periods, it is possible to construct time series for market-based measures of inflation compensation and real rates going back to 1992, using a penalised regression approach. These time series can be used as an input into econometric analysis and for illustrating stylised facts and historical patterns.
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box studies the impact that the Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy has on emerging market economies (EMEs) and analyses the factors shaping those spillovers. We use a local projections empirical framework to examine the ways in which EMEs’ macroeconomic and macro-financial variables respond to US monetary policy shocks identified at high frequency. In line with academic literature, our baseline results show that a surprise tightening of US monetary policy is associated with immediate tightening of EMEs’ financial conditions, after which industrial production and inflation decline, with that effect peaking after around 18 months. We find that heterogeneity across EMEs is shaped by macro-financial vulnerabilities and monetary policy actions at the national level: domestic macro-financial vulnerabilities clearly matter, amplifying EMEs’ sensitivity to US monetary policy shocks, while maintaining a prudent monetary policy stance helps EMEs to mitigate spillovers from US monetary policy.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
28 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
In 2022 the ECB conducted a climate risk stress test of some of the major financial exposures on the Eurosystem balance sheet. This box details the key features of the exercise and its main outcomes.
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
16 February 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023
Details
Abstract
Using firm-level data from the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), this box investigates whether bond-issuing firms substitute bond issuance with bank loans as bond market conditions deteriorate, and whether this affects bank lending conditions for SMEs that do not rely on bond financing. In the latest round of the SAFE, euro area firms reported a widening of their corporate bond financing gap (the difference between the change in the need for and the change in the availability of corporate bond financing). As bond issuers are typically large firms that rely on multiple sources of finance, their substitution of bond issuance with bank loans could lead to a tightening of bank lending conditions for smaller firms. This box finds evidence that bond-issuing firms substitute bond issuance with bank loans when bond market conditions deteriorate. In addition, there is some indication that as corporate bond financing gaps widen, bank lending conditions deteriorate for SMEs that do not use bond financing.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
16 February 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box updates the analysis published in April 2022 that reviewed the Eurosystem and ECB staff inflation projections published since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The accuracy of short-term inflation projections made by Eurosystem and ECB staff deteriorated after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. However, projection accuracy improved in the final quarter of 2022. Errors related to conditioning assumptions for energy commodity prices and the pass-through of those prices to consumer prices (complicated by the uncertain impact of fiscal policy measures) continue to account for a significant albeit declining share of the total staff inflation projection errors. The remaining errors are likely to relate to the impact of global supply chain bottlenecks and reopening effects following the pandemic. In addition, the exceptional size of commodity price shocks may have led to a much faster pass-through, while the high inflationary environment may have enabled easier repricing and required faster resetting of prices than had been observed in the past. In comparative terms, other international institutions and private forecasters have under-predicted short-term euro area inflation to a similar extent. Eurosystem and ECB staff are continuing to re-evaluate their models to further improve the accuracy of their projection techniques and to provide additional analyses that can inform projections in times of high uncertainty.
JEL Code
J2 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor
15 February 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023
Details
Abstract
In line with the ECB’s comprehensive action plan to incorporate climate change considerations into its policy framework, technical assumptions on carbon pricing have been introduced in the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections, along with a regular evaluation of the impact of climate-related fiscal policies on the projections baseline. This box evaluates the impact of green fiscal measures on GDP growth and inflation and discusses potential effects and risks to the outlook posed by the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and non-fiscal climate-related measures. The overall impact of green measures on euro area real GDP growth is expected to be very small until 2025, and their impact on inflation is limited but increases slightly over time. Over the period 2022-25, fiscal measures that are detrimental to the green transition outweigh green measures. Changes to the EU ETS under the “Fit for 55” package, and the sustained shift towards renewable energy sources implied by regulation, could pose both upside and downside risks to the inflation outlook, especially from 2025 onwards.
JEL Code
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
O44 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Environment and Growth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
15 February 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023
Details
Abstract
Work from home (WFH) patterns have changed substantially following the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and point to a persistently increased preference for remote work among workers. According to the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES), over 60% of workers had never worked from home before the pandemic, a share that then dropped to below 40% in the months following its onset. Around two-thirds of workers would still like to work remotely at least one day a week after the COVID-19 pandemic ends. Workers’ WFH preferences are broadly aligned with the preferences they perceive their employers to have. However, if workers have WFH preferences that exceed those they perceive their employers to have, they are more likely to change jobs. Two key factors affecting workers’ WFH preferences are their occupations and commute times.
JEL Code
J2 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor
13 February 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
This article assesses the relation between fiscal policy and inflation, with a focus on the euro area and the period 2022-25 (corresponding to the horizon of the December 2022 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area). Overall, the article concludes that, even without the discretionary policy response to the high energy prices and inflation (assessed at close to 2% of GDP over the 2022-23 period), the euro area budget balance could be negatively affected by the current high inflation beyond the short term. This is primarily explained by the nature of the inflation shock, which has a substantial external, energy-driven component, and its large size. Such factors lead to more limited gains on the revenue side of the budget, which in turn can easily be outweighed in the following years by extra spending pressures. In terms of the euro area debt-to-GDP ratio, the analysis shows that a negative impact on economic activity from an adverse supply shock, given the monetary policy reaction, may outweigh the positive initial impact of higher inflation through the denominator effect. The discretionary fiscal policy measures that have so far been adopted to shield the economy from the impact of high inflation in turn lower the inflationary pressures over the 2022-23 period, with a broad estimated reversal of the effect afterwards. The degree to which these fiscal measures will influence price dynamics is highly uncertain.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
3 February 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 73 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 4 and 12 January 2023, aggregate activity had broadly stagnated or contracted mildly in the fourth quarter of 2022, but with notable differences across sectors. The short-term outlook for activity remained subdued with much uncertainty, but there was increased hope of a pick-up in 2023. Selling prices continued to increase in aggregate, but at a moderating pace and with more variability across sectors and a less certain outlook. Wage growth was now the predominant cost concern, although wage expectations remained broadly unchanged from the previous survey round. Despite greater wage cost pressure and very high uncertainty regarding the future path of energy prices, most contacts expected lower price growth in 2023 than in 2022.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box examines the information that the euro area bank lending survey (BLS) provides on future growth in loans to firms and households for house purchase in the euro area. The survey has proved to be invaluable for assessing the passthrough of monetary policy to borrowers via banks, for obtaining early information on turning points in lending conditions, and for understanding changes in loan demand and lending conditions during exceptional periods, such as the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine. First, simple cross-correlations reveal a strong relation between BLS indicators and actual loan growth several quarters ahead. Second, BLS indicators help improve loan forecasts. In terms of loans to firms, the credit standards and loan demand reported in the BLS provide additional information that can be used when forecasting lending, while for housing loans, forecasts are improved by taking into account reported demand in particular. Finally, bank-level data confirm that BLS responses also reveal information on loan developments at the individual bank level. Overall, recent developments regarding BLS credit standards and loan demand point to a deceleration of growth in loans to firms and households in the coming quarters.
JEL Code
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box describes the liquidity conditions and the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth maintenance periods of 2022, from 27 July to 1 November.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box looks at the link between firms’ financing conditions and the euro area business cycle. For information on financing conditions of firms, the box uses results from the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE). Monetary policy is shown to affect changes in firms’ financing gaps – the difference between the change in demand for and the change in the availability of external financing – as well as their expectations about future availability of finance. At the current juncture, firms report increasing financing gaps and a deterioration in their expectations about the availability of finance in the period ahead. Such responses from firms are associated with stronger concerns about finance at the firm level. Moreover, financing conditions matter for the aggregate business cycle: increasing financing gaps and lower expected availability of finance foreshadow lower GDP growth.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
On 1 January 2023 Croatia adopted the euro and became the 20th member of the euro area. The Croatian economy is expected to benefit from the elimination of currency risk, as well as lower transaction and borrowing costs. After its accession to the EU in 2013, Croatia made significant progress in addressing macroeconomic imbalances and achieving convergence towards the euro area. It now needs to continue with those reform efforts in order to fully reap the benefits of the euro and to allow adjustment mechanisms to operate efficiently within the enlarged currency area.
JEL Code
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This article provides an initial review of the ECB’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), with a focus on its objectives, implementation, and effectiveness. The ECB launched the PEPP in March 2020 in response to the extraordinary economic and financial shock brought about by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Implementation of the programme was flexible, spreading purchases over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions. The PEPP was instrumental in supporting market functioning and the transmission of the monetary policy stance, and thus in countering pandemic-related risks to price stability.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
11 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box examines the impact of the recent increase in energy prices on real consumer spending in the euro area. The empirical framework relies on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model and identifies adverse energy supply shocks that lead to a deterioration in the terms of trade, as captured by the ratio between the GDP deflator and the private consumption deflator, and a decline in real consumer spending. It finds that energy supply shocks have significantly weighed on total private consumption in recent quarters, with durable goods consumption being particularly affected.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
10 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
Headline inflation has increased sharply in the euro area and in the United States since the start of 2021. But there are major differences between inflation developments in these two economies. In particular, energy inflation has been much higher in the euro area – leading to higher headline inflation than in the United States in recent months. As the euro area is significantly more dependent on energy imports than the United States, the rise in energy prices constitutes a strong adverse terms-of-trade shock to euro area income. Amid the resulting relatively slower recovery from the pandemic in the euro area, the contribution of demand to core inflation has increased more gradually and later in the euro area than in the United States. In addition, the short-term outlook for economic growth is weaker in the euro area than in the United States and the US labour market is tighter, implying a relatively smaller impetus from economic activity and the labour market to inflation in the euro area. Looking ahead, professional forecasters expect inflation to be somewhat more persistent in the United States than in the euro area.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
N10 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→General, International, or Comparative
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
9 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box examines cross-country developments in compensation per employee since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The pandemic has strongly affected wage developments across euro area countries, reflecting standard cyclical and structural determinants as well as novel factors, such as differences in the size and impact of the shock or the specificities of national job retention schemes.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
9 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This article discusses wage developments and the main factors that have influenced them since the start of the pandemic. First, it reviews developments in a broad range of wage measures for the euro area and discusses their current usefulness as signals of wage pressures. In this context, it illustrates how the growth of compensation per employee was adjusted for the impact of job retention schemes. Second, the article looks at how wage developments have differed across sectors, reflecting the heterogeneous impact of the pandemic shock. Finally, it discusses the impact of inflation on purchasing power of wage incomes and real wage costs in the euro area by examining developments in real consumer and producer wages for the economy as a whole and in its main sectors.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
J38 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Public Policy
10 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box provides an analysis of recent developments in trade and financial linkages between the euro area and Russia as recorded in the euro area balance of payments. The euro area current account balance vis-à-vis Russia turned from a small surplus into a deficit of 0.5% of euro area GDP between the second quarter of 2021 and the second quarter of this year, thus contributing significantly to the reduction in the euro area’s current account surplus over the same period. The bilateral current account deficit vis-à-vis Russia increased on account of the rising value of nominal imports, largely of energy products, and lower exports driven by EU sanctions. Euro area financial exposures to Russia before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were relatively limited, with foreign direct investment (FDI) being the most important component. Since the start of the war euro area holdings of Russian assets have declined, while liabilities vis-à-vis Russia have increased due to the impact of EU sanctions.
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
10 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
Carry-over effects describe how much the average growth rate in a given period is affected by developments in the preceding period. The most common application is to quantify how much annual average GDP growth is affected by quarterly developments in the previous year. This box applies this concept to quarterly changes in GDP by interpolating quarterly GDP into monthly observations using monthly indicators. In selecting the appropriate indicator variables, a production perspective is adopted by using industrial production, construction production and an indicator for services production. This sectoral approach is particularly useful in the current environment, given the differences in how sectors are being affected by the sharp and sudden fluctuations in economic conditions.
JEL Code
E00 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→General
O10 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→General
10 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
Euro area motor vehicle output fell by approximately one-third between June 2018 and July 2022. This can be explained by factors associated with the more stringent emissions tests implemented in the EU, the EU regulation on carbon dioxide emissions, the transition towards electric vehicles, supply chain disruptions, the rise in energy costs and, more recently, the increasing macroeconomic uncertainty related to the war in Ukraine. Euro area car exports also decreased at the same time. The transition to greener motor vehicles and the future evolution of supply bottlenecks are key factors shaping the outlook for euro area car production and exports in the coming years.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
L62 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Manufacturing→Automobiles, Other Transportation Equipment
9 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
The strong increase in euro area HICP inflation over the past 18 months has placed additional emphasis on monitoring and understanding the behaviour of consumers’ inflation expectations. Data from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey show that, after HICP inflation rose above 2% in July 2021, consumers’ inflation perceptions and expectations started to move upwards too. However, this rise in shorter-term (one-year ahead) inflation expectations was much more pronounced than that of more medium-term (three-years ahead) expectations and the term structure of consumers’ inflation expectations remained strongly downward sloping. There is some evidence that the responsiveness of inflation expectations to inflation perceptions has increased recently, but it remains noticeably lower for medium-term inflation expectations. Consumers’ uncertainty surrounding their inflation expectations has also grown. Overall, the upward movement in expectations, the increase in uncertainty surrounding them and rising sensitivity of medium-term expectations to perceived current inflation all call for continued close monitoring and analysis.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
9 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box examines the impact of the recent rise in inflation on low-income households in the euro area. Low-income households face significantly higher effective inflation rates than high-income households, due to a different composition of their consumption basket. Moreover, they are more liquidity-constrained and have less room to buffer sharp increases in their cost of living. Survey-based evidence shows that low-income households perceive the recent government measures aimed at easing the burden of higher energy prices as less adequate than high-income households do. This could suggest that there is potential for government support measures to be more targeted towards low-income households.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
8 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
This article surveys the literature on consumption risk sharing, focusing on the euro area but also presenting evidence for individual countries, including the United States. The literature finds that risk sharing is weaker in the euro area than between regions or federal states in the individual countries examined. However, our analysis of the response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis indicates that risk sharing in the euro area has been more resilient in this period than it was during the global financial crisis of 2008-10. It suggests that the provision of timely large-scale policy support reduced the risk of cross-border financial flows coming to a sudden halt, thus preventing a severe disruption of private risk sharing. This experience speaks in favour of establishing a common public risk-sharing mechanism in the euro area and completing the banking union and capital markets union. At the same time, the right balance must be found between additional, centralised euro area stabilisation and risk-sharing instruments and credible enforcement of fiscal rules to anchor market expectations of sound public finances.
JEL Code
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
7 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
This Box provides an assessment of trends in European trade in goods and the tourism sector in 2022 using Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI). For goods trade, the analysis shows that bottlenecks in the international supply chain tend to precede upward pressures on import prices for intermediate goods. These pressures are now slowly easing as export demand weakens and supply chains adjust. For services, an earlier surge in bookings in the tourism sector has led to higher prices in that sector. Higher input prices in the tourism and recreation sector, waning pent-up demand for travel, falling real incomes and rising uncertainty may start to dampen demand for European tourism and recreation trade in services in the coming months.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
L83 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Services→Sports, Gambling, Restaurants, Recreation, Tourism
28 October 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 69 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 26 September and 6 October 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity had broadly stagnated in the third quarter of this year. Parts of the manufacturing sector had suffered declining sales and production, while in others, production growth was sustained by long order books and easing supply constraints. Services activity was more resilient, supported by digitalisation and tourism. The outlook was for a deterioration in activity in the fourth quarter. Price dynamics remained very buoyant in the third quarter, not least given energy cost pressures. However, an increasing number of firms did say that prices in their sector were either at, or nearing, a peak. Wage pressures continued to build and were increasingly becoming an additional cost concern for many firms.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
7 October 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
In this box we decompose components of HICP excluding energy and food inflation into those driven predominantly by demand and those driven predominantly by supply shocks. This approach to monitoring inflation was originally developed for the United States. When adapted to the euro area it reveals that both supply and demand factors have contributed strongly to the increase in HICPX inflation since the second half of 2021. Supply factors were dominant at the beginning of the upturn in inflation in the second half of 2021, but demand factors have gradually increased in importance and contributed to a similar extent as supply factors to HICPX inflation over recent months. In recent months, the main contribution to non-energy industrial goods (NEIG) inflation has come from components predominantly driven by supply shocks, whereas services inflation has stemmed more from components predominantly driven by demand.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
22 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
Details
Abstract
In-house credit assessment systems (ICASs) of euro area national central banks are an important source of credit risk assessments for credit claims from non-financial corporates. These credit claims can be pledged as collateral in monetary policy operations. Climate change and the transition to a greener economy can affect the growth, financial performance, market position and business model of a company, and hence its creditworthiness. Therefore, as part of the ECB’s action plan for including climate change considerations in monetary policy implementation, the Governing Council has agreed a set of common minimum standards on incorporating these risks in ICAS rating processes. Assessments of climate change risks will mainly focus on the companies most affected and those which pose the highest risk to the Eurosystem. The analysis will be performed at firm level whenever sufficient data is available, using state-of-the-art methods and metrics. All ICASs will comply with the common minimum standards from end-2024 onwards.
JEL Code
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
22 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2022 from 20 April to 26 July.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
21 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
Details
Abstract
Mitigating climate change requires sustained and multipronged policy efforts, as a matter of urgency. Many initiatives to mitigate climate change are directly linked to fiscal policy, mainly through public spending or taxation. This article provides an overview of existing, required and expected fiscal climate policy efforts to advance the green transition in the euro area, focusing on carbon pricing and green public investment. It also looks at the distributional consequences of carbon pricing.
JEL Code
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
H30 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→General
Q52 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Pollution Control Adoption Costs, Distributional Effects, Employment Effects
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
20 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
Details
Abstract
The strong rise in inflation has renewed attention on longer-term inflation expectations. The distribution of individual longer-term inflation expectations from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters has recently recentred around 2%, although some respondents have lately raised their inflation expectations clearly above 2%. Some commentators have argued that movements in the upper “tails” of the inflation expectations’ distribution might signal a possible de-anchoring of expectations. This box takes a closer look at recent movements in long-term inflation expectations, especially of those forecasters currently in the upper tail of the distribution. We find that (a) historically, this tail group's longer-term inflation expectations have been higher, more volatile and more sensitive to realised inflation than the expectations of the rest of respondents, (b) respondents in this tail group perceive the current inflation spike to be more persistent, and (c) the evidence suggests that their expectations have not led movements in those of the rest of the professional forecasters.
JEL Code
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
20 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
Details
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a temporary decrease in the labour market activity of older workers in the euro area. Our analysis finds that a part of the decrease was driven by a pandemic-induced shift in the retirement decisions of older workers, affecting around 175,000 people. This represents 0.5% of the labour force aged 55-74 retiring earlier than planned due to the pandemic. The heightened economic uncertainty and health risks stemming from the pandemic persuaded some older workers either to bide their time before returning to work or to retire early. Early retirement was most pronounced for workers in poorer health, stressing the growing importance of health risks for labour market developments.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J14 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of the Elderly, Economics of the Handicapped, Non-Labor Market Discrimination
J26 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Retirement, Retirement Policies
19 September 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022
Details
Abstract
Against a background of rising mortgage rates, this box investigates the impact of changes in mortgage rates on euro area house prices and housing investment through linear and non-linear local projections. The model evidence suggests that housing market dynamics are very sensitive to mortgage rates, especially in a low interest rate environment. At the current juncture, this points to a significant risk of a marked slowdown of the euro area housing market. Yet, pandemic-induced shifts in housing preferences, which are not captured by the models, could counteract higher mortgage rates and could potentially increase uncertainty surrounding the housing outlook.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
3 August 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box reviews wage share dynamics and potential second-round effects on inflation at times of energy price increases. Compared to a well-known episode with some similar features – the OPEC oil embargo in October 1973 – recent energy price increases have so far had limited implications for labour income and the GDP deflator. This contained impact reflects the relatively mild terms-of-trade loss and subdued real wage dynamics today compared to the 1970s. However, the experience in the United States in both episodes shows that significant increases in the GDP deflator may arise even in the presence of weak real wage growth. A model-based analysis finds that the transmission of energy price increases to inflation, and in particular the emergence of second-round effects, has been more limited or even absent since the start of monetary union. Nevertheless, high and persistent inflation increases the risk of second-round effects materialising via higher wages and profit margins.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E25 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
3 August 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
Details
Abstract
This article takes stock of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis on business investment dynamics in the euro area and presents evidence on the main drivers of investment, as well as the opportunities, challenges and risks for its recovery, also in investment with respect to digitalisation and greening needs. Euro area business investment fell sharply in the first half of 2020. The considerable rebound and subsequent investment dynamics have been heterogenous across countries and types of investment, and the rebound has been overall somewhat weaker in the euro area than in the United States. While the recovery has been helped by substantial support from monetary and fiscal policy, headwinds such as increased uncertainty, commodity price rises and lingering supply bottlenecks risk delaying investment decisions and leading companies to further increase savings. Meanwhile, spending on further digitalising and “greening” the economy, as reflected in available investment data, has accelerated throughout the pandemic. Investment opportunities in these areas are considerable, and so are the challenges, which are mainly related to financing, regulation and incentives.
JEL Code
D25 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
Q55 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Technological Innovation
1 August 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
Details
Abstract
Oil prices spiked in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and have been volatile ever since. As the current increase in oil prices mainly reflects supply-side factors, it could also affect potential output. This box uses several approaches to assess the channels through which oil price hikes have an impact on potential output and to estimate the possible magnitude of the impact of the current shock. The quantitative estimates proposed should be regarded with caution given the current volatility in the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil and the uncertainty surrounding the amplitude of the shock, which will depend on how the conflict develops.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
1 August 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box uses the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) to assess euro area household saving behaviour since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Most respondents reported that during the pandemic they were not able to increase their savings. Those that were able to do so reported that COVID-19-related restrictions/fear of infection and precautionary motives were the most important reasons for increasing their savings. In March 2021 the bulk of the savings accumulated during the pandemic were not expected to be spent until at least the spring of 2022. Most respondents expected to return to, but not exceed, their pre-COVID-19 levels of consumption as soon as pandemic restrictions were relaxed, suggesting limited scope for widespread pent-up demand during the recovery. Pandemic-related savings were concentrated among higher-income households with a relatively low exposure to energy-intensive expenditure. This limits the extent to which these savings are able to shield the ongoing recovery of consumption from the adverse impact of the recent surge in energy prices.
JEL Code
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
22 July 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 71 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 20 and 29 June 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity developed positively in the second quarter of the year. Despite clear signs of weakening demand in some sectors, reflecting the uncertainty created by the war in Ukraine and rising inflation, the recovery in sectors benefiting from the relaxation of pandemic-related restrictions was particularly strong and generally exceeded expectations. Overall, contacts expected activity growth to slow in the coming months, with widespread uncertainty and concern surrounding the outlook after the summer. The frequency and magnitude of selling price increases remained high, as substantial increases in costs (particularly from energy and transport) were passed through the value chain. Most contacts anticipated a similar trend in selling price increases in the third quarter, but some were more hesitant in view of faltering demand, pointing to a potential for some moderation in the overall rate of increase.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
7 July 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box analyses the selling price expectations among euro area firms based on the results from the most recent Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area. To better understand the price-setting behaviour of firms in a context of high inflationary pressures, the April 2022 Survey included additional questions on the selling price expectations of firms and factors influencing their pricing decisions. By providing the perspective of firms, this box sheds light on the current inflation outlook.
JEL Code
C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
L11 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Production, Pricing, and Market Structure, Size Distribution of Firms
23 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
The debt financing structure of euro area firms has broadened since the introduction of the euro. While bank loans still account for a major share of corporate debt, euro area firms have increasingly resorted to bond financing over the past decade and a half. Empirical evidence suggests that this shift in firms’ debt financing structures affects the transmission of shocks to the euro area economy. While corporate bonds and loans typically respond in a similar procyclical manner to exogenous changes in business investment, bond issuance tends to mildly cushion the credit contraction resulting from adverse supply shocks. The evidence also indicates that a higher share of bond financing strengthens the transmission of monetary policy measures that primarily operate via longer-term yields, whereas short-term rate changes tend to exert stronger real effects in economies that are more dependent on loans. From a broader perspective, the higher share of bond financing renders euro area firms more resilient against crises concentrated in the banking sector. However, this benefit may be counteracted by a rising presence of more vulnerable firms in the corporate bond market and by the structural vulnerabilities of non-bank financial intermediaries, which are significant investors in that market.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
23 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the first and second maintenance periods of 2022 from 9 February to 19 April 2022.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
23 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has hit economic confidence and increased uncertainty in the euro area. This box illustrates how the increased uncertainty is being transmitted to the economy, adopting a two-step approach. In the first step, the uncertainty shock is identified using a structural vector autoregression model with sign and narrative restrictions. In the second step, the identified shock is used to compute losses in domestic demand, employing local projection methods. The box shows that the uncertainty shock witnessed in the period to April will have a material adverse impact on domestic demand, estimated to be larger for business investment than for consumption. Across sectors, the effect is estimated to be larger for manufacturing than for services and larger for durable goods than for non‑durables.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
22 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
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Abstract
This box assesses the extent to which current private sector forecasts point to expectations of stagflation in the euro area reminiscent of the stagflation episode in the 1970s. Stagflation refers to a protracted period of flat or negative growth combined with high or increasing inflation, as witnessed in the main advanced economies in the 1970s. Private forecasters do not currently envisage a period of stagflation for the euro area.
JEL Code
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
N14 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→Europe: 1913?
22 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of a survey of leading firms on the impact of climate change and related measures to green the economy on business, and thus on activity and prices. The survey responses indicate that during the transition to a net-zero economy large companies anticipate significantly higher investment, input costs and price pressures, as well as changes to production and market structures. However, only a small share of respondents expect a significant impact on investment, input cost and prices after the transition. As regards the challenges involved, firms emphasise issues related to the availability of new clean technologies and inputs, followed by concerns about costs and regulation. Firms expect physical risks to have an impact in particular on the agricultural, construction and transport sectors, and on firms in the manufacturing sector with vulnerable supply chains.
JEL Code
C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
M21 : Business Administration and Business Economics, Marketing, Accounting→Business Economics→Business Economics
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
21 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
Record-high energy price increases at the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022 put significant pressures on the purchasing power of consumers. These increases followed a marked decline in energy prices at the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. While the initial increase in energy prices from the summer of 2020 was mainly driven by the recovery in energy demand following the easing of lockdown measures after the first wave of the pandemic, the subsequent price rally during 2021 was also significantly affected by supply-side issues. This development was aggravated in early 2022 by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The increase in European gas prices since the summer of 2021 has been particularly sharp, reflecting a combination of supply and demand factors that left European gas inventories at historically low levels ahead of the winter season and the gas market vulnerable to supply and demand uncertainty, including from escalating geopolitical tensions. As a result, consumer gas prices and consumer electricity prices (driven by gas prices) played an increasingly important role in developments in HICP energy and were also accompanied by unprecedented cross-country heterogeneity in energy price developments.
JEL Code
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
L90 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities→General
21 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box examines recent developments in euro area food inflation and the channels through which it is being affected by the Russia-Ukraine war. Euro area HICP food inflation reached a historical high in April 2022. The rise has been driven primarily by increasing global energy and food commodity prices since the second half of 2021. The war and its repercussions are hindering the import of energy and food commodities in the euro area and contributing to further increases in global prices. While the European Union is mostly self-sufficient in terms of agricultural products, producing more than it consumes, this is exacerbating already existing pressures in euro area food markets.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
21 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box provides an overview of the impact that the war in Ukraine has had on euro area energy markets. Energy commodity and electricity prices spiked in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and have been highly volatile ever since. Russia supplies a considerable amount of energy to the euro area, particularly gas. The European Union introduced economic sanctions targeting the Russian energy industry, most notably the coal and oil sectors, while steps are also being taken towards becoming independent of Russian gas. After the initial price spikes, energy commodity prices moderated, owing partly to the EU’s sanctions and also helped by other policy initiatives such as historically large releases of strategic oil reserves. Higher energy commodity prices intensified the pressure on euro area consumer prices in February and March 2022, while some of this pressure was alleviated in April and May as a result of government measures.
JEL Code
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
N44 : Economic History→Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation→Europe: 1913?
20 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
The influx of Ukrainian refugees is expected to lead to a gradual increase in the size of the euro area labour force. Back-of-an-envelope median estimates suggest that the influx of Ukrainian refugees could boost the euro area labour force by between 0.2% and 0.8% in the medium term, depending on the duration and the severity of the war. This would result in the labour force gaining between 0.3 and 1.3 million additional workers. However, labour market rigidities and other labour market frictions may slow down the integration process, with the result that Ukrainian refugees are likely to enter the labour force very gradually.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J15 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants, Non-labor Discrimination
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J61 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Geographic Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers
28 April 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022
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Abstract
Minimum wages are prevalent in many euro area countries. Since 2008 minimum wages in the euro area have tended, on average, to grow at a similar pace to wages and salaries per employee. However, minimum wage growth can also significantly deviate from growth in wages and salaries in some years. Minimum wages are expected to grow at a substantially stronger pace than wages and salaries in many euro area countries in 2022 and 2023 – leading to a stronger than usual upward impact of minimum wages on euro area wage growth while the absolute direct mechanical impact on wage growth in the euro area is likely to remain contained.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
26 April 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022
Details
Abstract
The price of emissions allowances traded on the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) has risen from below €10 per metric tonne of carbon to above €90 since the beginning of 2018. This box outlines the main reasons behind this increase and examines whether speculative activity may have played a significant role. It concludes that, at present, tangible evidence for a marked increase in speculative activity related to potential changes in market structure appears scarce. Furthermore, a speculation index suggests that, while speculation appears to have increased slightly since early 2019, it remains relatively moderate and well below readings during earlier phases of the ETS.
JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
25 April 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022
Details
Abstract
The recent increase in energy prices raises the question of the extent to which households will reduce their consumption in response. This article reviews the drivers of the macroeconomic transmission of higher energy prices. It finds that in the first half of 2021 households regarded most of the rise in energy prices as being driven by stronger aggregate demand, leading to a recovery in consumption. However, since the summer of 2021 price rises caused, among other things, by disruptions in the supply of energy have increasingly weighed on household spending. This article also analyses the distributional impact of higher energy prices. Because poorer households spend a relatively large percentage of their income on energy, their purchasing power is particularly affected when energy prices surge. While monetary policy may have a limited role to play in counteracting the fallout from supply-driven changes in energy prices, targeted fiscal policies seem well suited to addressing the impact on the most affected households.
JEL Code
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
D39 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Other
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
14 April 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 67 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 20 and 30 March 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity developed positively in the first months of the year, despite ongoing supply constraints as well as cost and price pressures. The war in Ukraine added further disruption to businesses, mainly in the form of further price increases for energy and raw materials, much of which would be passed through to selling prices, as well as shortages resulting in reduced production in some sectors. Overall, contacts expected growth to slow in the coming months, as higher inflation would reduce disposable income and final consumer demand, while uncertainty and downside risks were substantial.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
24 March 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022
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Abstract
This box analyses the development of the saving ratios of non-financial corporations in the euro area and in the largest euro area countries during the coronavirus pandemic. It shows that euro area corporate saving ratios came under pressure at the start of the pandemic but have reached record highs in recent quarters. Business saving has outpaced investment, resulting in historically high net lending of non-financial corporations. Given the importance of savings as an internal source of finance for investment and the high levels of the saving-to-investment ratio and net lending position of non-financial corporations, the prospects for business investment currently look positive from an internal funding perspective.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
24 March 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the seventh and eighth maintenance periods of 2021 from 3 November 2021 to 8 February 2022.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
23 March 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022
Details
Abstract
Notwithstanding the recent pick-up in corporate spreads in some markets, global corporate bond prices stand close to historical highs amid relatively low credit risk premia, particularly in lower-rated segments. At the same time, the COVID‑19 pandemic has increased the vulnerability and indebtedness of many firms around the world, with corporate credit ratings remaining below pre‑pandemic levels and some firms exhibiting relatively weak profitability. The model-based valuation analysis presented in this box suggests that the strong overall decline in global corporate bond spreads since the peak of the pandemic has been only partly driven by the market’s assessment of improving credit quality and could, to a large extent, be related to the strength of investors’ risk appetite. Based on analysis of bond-level valuations in the US corporate market, the box also shows that market-wide risk-off shocks have the potential to significantly increase corporate spreads and expected default probabilities, particularly for the weakest firms.
JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
23 March 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022
Details
Abstract
The negative impact of the pandemic on the euro area corporate sector has been mitigated by an effective monetary, fiscal and supervisory policy response. This is also reflected in a low number of corporate insolvency cases. Looking ahead, the balance sheet health of firms and, by extension, the asset quality of banks hinge on the strength of the economic recovery and the financing conditions for firms. Higher corporate indebtedness could dampen investment, posing a risk to the economic recovery. For small and medium-sized enterprises, the pandemic could add to pre-existing vulnerabilities. Structural policies to improve the business environment, including policies aimed at broadening the sources of funding available to firms beyond debt financing, could support sustainable investment growth.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
22 March 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022
Details
Abstract
In January 2022, Eurostat began publishing official euro area aggregates as part of its Owner-Occupied Housing Price Index (OOHPI). This box looks at the various sub-components of that index, offering a cross-country perspective and analysing their correlation with other price indicators at euro area level.
JEL Code
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
17 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box reviews indexation schemes and other mechanisms for setting public wages and pensions across euro area countries. It concludes that price indexation of public wages is relatively limited, while public pensions are overwhelmingly automatically indexed, fully or partially, to prices and wages.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
17 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 74 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 10 and 19 January 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity was strong or growing across a range of sectors. However, supply constraints were still limiting firms’ ability to meet demand and generating pipeline price pressures, on top of which businesses faced surging energy costs. Most contacts expected wage growth to pick up somewhat this year. Given the cost pressures and continued strong customer demand, most contacts reported increasing prices and a more dynamic pricing environment, especially in the industrial sector.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
17 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box shows that movements of firms along the productivity distribution over time have played a key role in explaining productivity developments in the euro area. The movement of firms along the productivity distribution is mainly driven by the capacity of firms to react to shocks and by incentives to innovate. This applies to both low-productivity firms that want to survive in the market and high-productivity firms that face the risk of falling behind the times. Interestingly, firm productivity has become less dynamic over time, which may reflect an increase in the average age of frontier firms and declining entry rates in the wake of higher market concentration. This decline in firm dynamism highlights the important role of structural policies in incentivising technological innovation and fostering the market entry of highly productive firms and the exit of less-productive firms.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
D61 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Allocative Efficiency, Cost?Benefit Analysis
16 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
Details
Abstract
The ECB’s monetary policy strategy review confirmed that the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) remains the appropriate price measure for assessing the achievement of the medium-term price stability objective. However, the Governing Council recognised that the inclusion of costs related to owner-occupied housing in the HICP would better represent the inflation rate that is relevant for households. This article elaborates on the topic of owner-occupied housing and its proposed inclusion in the HICP. It showcases the two options considered by the Governing Council, focusing on their statistical and conceptual properties. For the net acquisition approach recommended by the Governing Council, the article presents analytical indices based on ECB approximations that serve as a blueprint for the quarterly internal measure to be monitored. Finally, the article looks ahead to the incorporation of the costs of owner-occupied housing into the HICP and the associated challenges, noting that the current HICP will remain the main reference index for monetary policy during the transition period.
JEL Code
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
16 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
Details
Abstract
A recurring theme in the “ECB Listens” event conducted in the context of the monetary policy strategy review was the affordability of housing and the case for including related costs more adequately in the HICP. Housing costs can be analysed on the basis of different sources of data. This box reviews perceptions of housing costs among tenants and homeowners based on survey microdata, compares them with developments in housing costs based on macro price statistics, and highlights conceptual differences between the various measures that are important in the interpretation of the data.
JEL Code
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
15 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
Details
Abstract
The article takes stock of Next Generation EU (NGEU) from a euro area perspective. NGEU is a temporary crisis instrument that, if implemented successfully, is expected to significantly improve Europe’s economic prospects. In the short term, it should support the recovery of the EU economy. In the medium term, NGEU should help to modernise the EU economies, with positive effects on their growth potential, resilience and convergence. The article provides a synthesis of the fiscal measures and structural reforms embedded in the national recovery and resilience plans of euro area countries. It also looks at the economic impact of the planned investments. Finally, the article examines the novel governance approach that can sustain a successful implementation of NGEU.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
14 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box investigates potential long-term effects that current supply shortages could have on euro area potential output growth. Depending on the persistence of supply bottlenecks, firms might consider finding new supply chains. If this happens, sectors that have greatly benefited from international exposure and globalisation in terms of productivity growth might experience a decline in trend total factor productivity. All else being equal, this could lead to a trend decline in potential output growth for the most affected countries. The likelihood of such a scenario is highly difficult to assess. On the one hand, the high sunk costs of establishing global supply chains imply that reshoring would not take place at a larger scale if the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is perceived to be temporary. On the other hand, a substantial shift in the geography of supply chains may occur because supply disruptions are very costly to firms. The challenges presented by this reorganisation process could be exacerbated if the pandemic encourages an increase in protectionism and de-globalisation. This box presents two scenarios, using historical elasticities between global value chain participation and trend total factor productivity growth, to give a flavour of the possible impact the current supply shortages could have on potential output.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
14 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
Details
Abstract
After headline inflation had already reached very high levels in the United States in the first half of 2021 and increased further to 7% in December, euro area inflation also recorded a very rapid increase in the second half of 2021 but remained much lower than in the United States at 5% in December and – according to Eurostat’s flash release – at 5.1% in January. Most of the difference in overall inflation developments has been due to the far stronger increase in inflation less energy and food (and from a higher starting point) in the United States than in the euro area. Large contributions from some special items – including used car prices – continue to play a key role for explaining differences in inflation excluding food and energy. Turning to underlying drivers of inflation developments, the United States is more advanced in the business cycle than the euro area and the US labour market has tightened, which has started to be reflected in some upward pressure on wages. However it should be kept in mind that the pandemic is a unique situation with considerable differences in inflation developments when compared with “normal” times, which require close monitoring and add to the uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook in the United States as well as in the euro area. Upside surprises in inflation data releases have continued to be larger for the United States than for the euro area over recent quarters. Looking ahead, Consensus Economics forecasts expected inflation to remain below 2% in 2023 in the euro area but not in the United States and uncertainty around the outlook for inflation seemed to be much greater for the United States.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
N10 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→General, International, or Comparative
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth maintenance periods of 2021 from 28 July 2021 to 2 November 2021.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box presents a model-based approach for distinguishing between two unobserved components embedded in market-based measures of inflation compensation, namely inflation expectations and inflation risk premia. The approach relies on econometric models used to analyse the term structure of inflation-linked swap rates. Estimates indicate that the rise in inflation compensation observed since mid-2020 is attributable more to inflation risk premia than to inflation expectations. This suggests that the rise is mainly related to a shift in the inflation risks priced in, from lower than expected to higher than expected.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box explores new indicators of the financing conditions faced by euro area companies, based on firm-level survey data. Drawing on the rich dataset provided by the survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), three synthetic indicators summarise how firms have perceived their financing conditions in the euro area since 2009. Overall, the indicators suggest there have been several important phases in firms’ perceptions of financing conditions, which relate closely to ECB monetary policy measures. The empirical analysis shows that, after the onset of the pandemic, firms’ perceptions of financing conditions played an increasingly important role in explaining their expectations of the future availability of bank loans.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
H32 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Firm
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
During the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, supply and demand imbalances have put a strain on global production networks. We develop a two-step vector autoregression (VAR) procedure to gauge the impact of supply chain shocks on activity, trade and prices. In the first step, we use a sign restricted structural VAR with PMI output and PMI delivery times to recover the supply chain shock, which is our proxy for measuring episodes of supply chain strains. In the second step, we plug such shocks as exogenous variables into a companion VAR with endogenous real and nominal variables. Counterfactual scenarios are constructed to assess the effects of the supply bottlenecks, which are having a negative impact on real variables and pushing up prices. A medium-term assessment of the supply chain strains is also provided.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
Understanding the expectations of households, firms and financial markets regarding monetary policy and macroeconomic developments is important for the conduct of monetary policy. Surveys can play an important role in understanding expectations. The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) brings together information on financial sector expectations of monetary policy and macroeconomic developments in one coherently structured and regularly updated survey. The objective of the SMA is to “gather regular, comprehensive, structured and systematic information on market participants’ expectations”. The ECB launched the SMA as a pilot project in April 2019 and, after concluding the pilot phase, has published aggregate results since June 2021. This article looks at the structure of the survey and the rationale behind it and explains what role it plays in understanding changes in market participants’ expectations of euro area monetary policy and the macroeconomy.
JEL Code
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
11 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
Details
Abstract
In the wake of the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy, a special survey was conducted among the panel of participants in the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The aim of the survey was to gain an insight into how the participants in the regular SPF survey have assessed the new strategy and into whether it has already had, or will have, an impact on their forecasts. Overall, respondents considered the new strategy to be an improvement, identifying the clearer inflation target (2%) and explicit commitment to symmetry as key elements. Regarding the impact on macroeconomic forecasts, around one-third of respondents indicated that they had revised their point longer-term inflation expectations, and a slightly larger portion indicated that they had revised (up) the balance of risks surrounding those expectations in response to the new strategy. The results of the survey suggest there is a strong correlation between what respondents viewed as key aspects in the new strategy and what they viewed as key improvements compared with the previous strategy.
JEL Code
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
11 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
Details
Abstract
Shocks to inflation can have longer-lasting effects in the presence of second-round effects. Wage-setting systems are more likely to trigger second-round effects if wage indexation is widespread in labour agreements. To derive a euro area indicator for the prevalence of wage indexation, characteristics of national wage indexation schemes are weighted by country shares in euro area private sector employment. Based on this indicator, around 3% of private sector employees in the euro area have wages and minimum wages automatically indexed to inflation. For most of the employees covered by automatic wage indexation, the inflation measure is backward-looking and includes energy. Indexation regimes where inflation has a formal, but not automatic role in wage negotiations, apply to currently around 18% of employees in the euro area and mostly consider forward-looking inflation measures excluding energy. Additionally, around 18% of euro area employees work in countries where only the minimum wages are automatically indexed to inflation. These indexation mechanisms are usually backward-looking with inflation measures that include energy. For more than half of the employees in the euro area, inflation does not play a formal role in wage setting but can be an important factor in wage negotiations. Where there is no formal role for inflation, inflation developments can be more easily disregarded in times of high uncertainty, with the focus being on job security instead, for example. Since the Great Financial Crisis, indexation regimes with a formal role for inflation in wage setting have become somewhat less prevalent in the euro area. Overall, the likelihood of euro area wage-setting schemes triggering second-round effects based on inflation indexation is relatively limited, particularly with regard to energy inflation. Recent hikes in energy inflation can be expected to lead to some automatic wage increases, mainly in minimum wages in some countries, affecting only a small share of private sector employees. However, a broadly based and automatic pass-through to wage growth through wage indexation mechanisms seems rather unlikely.
JEL Code
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J38 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Public Policy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
11 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
Details
Abstract
This article reviews three popular equilibrium exchange rate models, the purchasing power parity (PPP), behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and macroeconomic balance (MB) models. The aim is to address two questions: whether such models help in forecasting real and nominal exchange rates and which macroeconomic fundamentals contain such predictive power. The evidence suggests that real exchange rates adjust over time to their estimated real exchange rate equilibria only in the cases of the PPP and BEER models. Exploring this empirical regularity, it is possible to draw three important lessons. The first is that such equilibrium adjustment helps to forecast real exchange rates. The second lesson is that this real equilibrium adjustment process helps in forecasting nominal exchange rates, as most of the adjustment toward equilibrium is achieved by currency movements and not by relative price changes. The third is that most of the forecasting power comes from the exploitation of the mean-reverting properties of real exchange rates rather than an understanding of the relationship between exchange rates and economic fundamentals.
JEL Code
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F37 : International Economics→International Finance→International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
9 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box looks at recent trends in, and the outlook for, euro area housing markets using data from the ECB’s new Consumer Expectations Survey. Households from the highest income quintile, those expecting high income growth and households that are net savers are particularly likely to support housing demand going forward. While some accumulated savings may have already been used for house purchase, such savings are still expected to support housing demand in the near term. Households expect favourable credit conditions and increasing housing prices, which suggests a dynamic housing market but may also pose housing affordability problems for lower-income households.
JEL Code
R2 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis
R3 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
9 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
Details
Abstract
This article reviews the developments in the euro area housing market during the various phases of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and compares them with previous crises. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the introduction of mandatory and voluntary restrictions on economic agents’ mobility had a strong impact on housing market activity. However, in contrast to the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis, the upward trend in house prices and housing loans continued unabated, which was also thanks to resilient demand for housing by households. During the second and third waves, the forceful support of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policy measures amid more targeted containment measures ensured favourable financing conditions and helped increase the attractiveness of housing for investment purposes, while supply-side bottlenecks may have exerted some upward pressure on house prices. The outlook for the euro area housing market remains dependent on uncertainties related to pandemic developments, policy support and structural changes.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
8 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box assesses the recent dynamics and outlook for economic activity in more contact-intensive services in the euro area, which were particularly adversely affected by the pandemic. Following the marked deterioration during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, value added in those services rebounded strongly in the second and third quarters of 2021, while remaining well below its pre-pandemic level. The ample slack in these subsectors is also confirmed by the significant role of demand as a factor limiting activity, which in turn appears to be affected by pandemic restrictions. The gradual resolution of the public health crisis and the ensuing reopening of the economy are expected to support a continued recovery in more contact-intensive services. In the medium term, structural factors, such as changes in households’ preferences and working arrangements, will also play a role in shaping the recovery path of consumer services.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
29 October 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 68 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 4 and 13 October 2021. According to these contacts, overall activity was strong or growing across a range of sectors. However, supply constraints were increasingly limiting firms’ ability to meet demand and were generating pipeline price pressures which, while transitory in nature, were turning out to be more persistent than some had anticipated. There were also more widespread reports of labour shortages, not least as the recovery of high-contact services had stimulated recruitment activity. Owing to the pipeline prices pressures and the recent surge in energy prices, contacts anticipated greater pass-through to consumer prices and higher wages in 2022 than they had a few months ago.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
23 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
Details
Abstract
In its climate change action plan, the ECB committed to accelerating the development of new models and conducting theoretical and empirical analyses to monitor the implications of climate change and related policies for the economy. As a first step in its detailed roadmap of climate-related actions, the ECB envisages the inclusion of technical assumptions on carbon pricing in Eurosystem/ECB staff projections. Against this backdrop, this box summarises the genesis and basic features of the EU emissions trading system (ETS), the system setting the carbon price in the EU. The EU ETS, which began operating in 2005, is a “cap and trade” system where a cap is set by the EU on the total amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted by the activities covered by the system. It has been implemented in “phases” designed to gradually reduce the cap while increasing the scope of the system. In July 2021 a revision of the EU ETS was proposed in the context of the “Fit for 55” package. Meanwhile, the price of emissions allowances traded on the EU ETS has increased from €8 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent at the beginning of 2018 to around €60 more recently. So far, the main impact of changes in emissions allowance prices has been on HICP energy inflation, and, overall, the risk that emissions allowance prices under the current EU ETS may translate into significantly higher headline inflation in the near term appears limited. However, against the backdrop of the ECB’s recently announced action plan, these and other climate change mitigation polices will be further explored with regard to their implications for macroeconomic modelling and monetary policy.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
22 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box assesses the health of the euro area non-financial corporate sector at an aggregate level during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic using the quarterly sectoral accounts. The results suggest that non-financial corporate liquidity was safeguarded at the aggregated sector level. This was mainly due to a build-up of cash buffers, as is typical for crisis periods, and the timely and extensive reactions from the monetary, fiscal and supervisory authorities. Policy interventions provided direct and indirect support to non-financial corporations and enabled firms to substantially increase their recourse to debt financing. However, non-financial corporate profitability, operating efficiency, indebtedness and vulnerabilities came under pressure, increasing the risk of a rise in firm defaults in the future.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
21 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations and liquidity developments during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2021 (28 April 2021 to 27 July 2021).
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
21 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
Details
Abstract
Before the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, HICP inflation was relatively subdued in the euro area, standing at 1.2% in February 2020. In the United States, CPI inflation was substantially stronger, at 2.3% in the same month. After having declined over 2020, headline inflation has increased strongly in the United States and the euro area over recent months. Most of the increase, especially in the United States, has been driven by only a few items in the consumption baskets – including energy prices. Looking at developments in underlying inflation, US CPI inflation less food and energy has increased strongly, significantly surpassing its pre-pandemic levels, while HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX) in the euro area has remained below its pre-pandemic levels – reflecting in part a still larger amount of slack in the euro area economy. Recent increases in inflation have pushed up the short-term inflation expectations of professional forecasters for the United States and, to a much lesser extent, also for the euro area, but inflation rates are expected to decrease substantially again over the first half of 2022. A substantial part of the strong increases in inflation over recent months in the United States and the euro area can be attributed to special factors that are likely to be of a temporary nature. For a more permanent increase in inflation, price pressures would usually need to become more broad-based (especially in the euro area) and also reflect increasing labour cost pressures. However, there is so far no firm indication of the latter once the effects of changes in the composition of employment and of job retention schemes are taken into account.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
20 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
Details
Abstract
The third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) enabled one of the largest liquidity injections by the European Central Bank (ECB). This article provides an assessment of the effectiveness of the operations in supporting bank lending conditions. It discusses the main transmission channels of TLTRO III, including in relation to other policy measures. This article also includes a box on the importance of collateral easing measures, a box on the impact of TLTRO III on money market rates, and a box on the consequences of high participation in TLTRO III for excess liquidity levels. The article then documents, based on hard data on banks’ balance sheets and soft information from bank surveys, the extent to which TLTRO III has eased bank lending conditions, thereby helping to support access to credit for households and firms during the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
20 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
Details
Abstract
This article analyses the evolution of hours worked per worker in the euro area, in the light of their relevance for the labour contribution to the production of goods and services and for the capacity of the labour market to adjust to macroeconomic developments. Annual hours worked per worker in the euro area have been on a downward trend. Between 1995 and 2019, they declined by more than a hundred hours per worker, from 1,681 to 1,476. Most of this decline results from a rising share of part-time work which in turn can mainly be explained by the increasing labour force participation of women. Labour supply factors have a clear impact as most people working part-time do so voluntarily. Hours worked per worker also play an important role in the adjustment of the labour market during cyclical downturns, as some firms choose to reduce hours per worker to protect employment. This feature is an important factor in assessing the strength of the labour market during subsequent recoveries.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
5 August 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
Details
Abstract
This article details the rationale and thinking behind the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy, which was published on 8 July 2021, and its main elements. While the mandate is conferred upon the ECB by the Treaties, the ECB has to devise its monetary policy strategy. This strategy sets out how to achieve the primary objective of maintaining price stability in the euro area, referring to an appropriate set of monetary policy instruments, indicators and intermediate targets, as well as how to take into account other considerations without prejudice to price stability. A monetary policy strategy serves two main purposes: first, it provides policymakers with a coherent analytical framework that maps actual or expected economic developments into policy decisions, second, it serves as a vehicle for communicating with the public. The ECB’s monetary policy strategy was last reviewed in 2003 and the changes that have since occurred to the economic and financial backdrop as well as to the predominant policy challenges warranted an update.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
5 August 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
Details
Abstract
The recent marked increases in the cost of commodities, raw materials and intermediate products have so far led to only limited upward pressures on consumer goods inflation. Looking ahead, upward pressures on non-energy industrial goods (NEIG) inflation from recent global developments in these input costs are expected to strengthen, as the pass-through generally takes more than one year. How visible and strong the impact on NEIG inflation might be will depend on how persistent the global input cost shocks ultimately are.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
5 August 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
Details
Abstract
More than a year after the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, euro area stock prices have risen close to all-time highs, mainly driven by a recovery in earnings expectations. However, COVID-19 and the associated lockdowns have left a larger and longer-lasting mark on some companies than on others. Indeed, earnings expectations have become more heterogeneous across sectors, in line with expectations of an uneven recovery. This stands in sharp contrast with the developments during the Global Financial Crisis, when cross-sectoral dispersion first dropped and then normalised.Empirical analysis suggests that cross-sectoral dispersion in 12-month earnings per share forecasts has increased with each tightening of lockdown measures. At the same time, the start of vaccination campaigns has been a game changer: since the vaccine rollout began in late 2020, more stringent lockdown measures have added far less to the dispersion in earnings expectations.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
5 August 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box reports evidence on the heterogeneous impact of the pandemic on euro area countries. It shows that the different impact on activity was largely due to different containment measures, heterogenous sectoral compositions and institutions. Economies with a larger share of high-contact services sectors were hit the hardest, even when lockdown measures eased over time. All euro area governments implemented fiscal support measures, albeit different in size, to alleviate the health and economic consequences of the pandemic. This led to divergence in public finances in 2020 compared with the pre-crisis period. Looking ahead, the Next Generation EU programme is expected to help reduce the economic divergence observed in the euro area in 2020 and foster a more inclusive recovery.
JEL Code
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
4 August 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
Details
Abstract
This article reviews how policy institutions – international organisations and central banks – use big data and machine learning methods to analyse the business cycle. It provides different examples to show how big data and machine learning methods are particularly suitable for capturing large shocks and non-linearities in real time. The coronavirus crisis is a case in point, where big data have provided invaluable timely signals on the state of the economy, thus helping to track and assess economic activity, domestic demand and labour market developments in real time. Finally, the article discusses the main challenges faced by central banks when using non-standard data and methods and areas of further application to the work of central banks.
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
3 August 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
Details
Abstract
This article looks at the government support for firms during the COVID-19 crisis in the form of subsidies, transfers, government guarantees and other forms of financing, such as loans at low interest rates and equity injections. It highlights that these government responses may substantially change the composition and dynamics of balance sheets. The article also discusses the implications of the responses for the size of government balance sheets. In addition, the phasing out of government support needs to be carefully aligned with economic and social objectives.
JEL Code
D3 : Microeconomics→Distribution
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
3 August 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
Details
Abstract
The recovery of growth in compensation per employee (CPE) has been V-shaped and driven mainly by adjustments in compensation and less by changes in employment. This can be explained by the decisive role played by job retention schemes during the pandemic, which helped to preserve the employment status of employees. The dispersion of CPE growth has remained higher than during pre-pandemic times – underlining the importance of taking sectoral developments into account when analysing aggregate wage growth in the euro area. The differences in sectoral developments in CPE growth reflect the different degrees to which sectors were affected by the pandemic and the measures taken to contain it. While wage growth has been strong in non-market services and construction in recent quarters, CPE growth was hardest hit and remains negative in high-contact services. The effects of the pandemic on growth in compensation are expected to shape wage developments in 2021 in all main sectors. As for the outlook, a key question is whether sectoral wage negotiations will aim to make up for the temporary cuts in compensation at least partly and in some sectors – which could add to wage growth over the next years, especially in those parts of the services sector that were hit hardest during the pandemic.
JEL Code
H24 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
2 August 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
Details
Abstract
The propensity of households to save has reached extraordinary levels since early 2020. This box analyses the drivers of this surge and tries to infer what they imply for private consumption as the pandemic is brought under control. On the one hand, the spike in household savings mostly comprises involuntary savings held to a large extent in the form of liquid assets, while the effects of the pandemic on household income have been limited. On the other hand, the additional savings are concentrated among older and higher-income households which, together with the services-led nature of the slump in consumption, suggests that these savings have only a limited potential to boost private consumption. Overall, the underlying drivers of the recent surge in household savings do not suggest much of an additional boost to the expected rebound in private consumption in the coming year.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
2 August 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
Details
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has led to the accumulation of a large stock of household savings across advanced economies. Owing to their large size, the savings accumulated since early 2020 could significantly influence the post-pandemic recovery path. The central question is whether households will spend heavily once pandemic-related restrictions are lifted and consumer confidence returns, or whether other motives (e.g. precautionary, deleveraging) will keep households from spending their accumulated excess savings. This box reviews the main economic arguments supporting the hypothesis that any reduction in the accumulated stock of savings is likely to be limited in the medium term. However, given the considerable uncertainty surrounding these arguments, it also illustrates two alternative scenarios for the stock of the accumulated savings (a “cut-back” scenario and a “build-up” scenario) and assesses their possible implications for the global economic outlook.
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
23 July 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 63 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges took place between 28 June and 7 July 2021. According to these contacts, overall activity was growing strongly in the second quarter of 2021 and this was expected to continue in the third quarter, reflecting the gradual easing of lockdowns and travel restrictions, which benefited services, and the continued strong demand for manufactured goods. At the same time, shortages of inputs and transport bottlenecks were limiting activity somewhat in the manufacturing sector and generating pipeline pressures, some of which would feed through to final consumer prices and wages. These pressures should gradually ease over the next 6-18 months.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
24 June 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the first and second maintenance periods of 2021, from 27 January to 27 April.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
24 June 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box documents the misalignment between the surge in global demand for semiconductors and their limited global supply. The semiconductor chip shortage poses constraints on euro area manufacturers, particularly in industries relying on semiconductors, such as the computer, electronic, electrical equipment and automotive industries. So far, there is only limited evidence regarding the effects of the shortage of semiconductors on euro area price pressures.
JEL Code
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
23 June 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2021
Details
Abstract
European governments responded to the pandemic by deploying large fiscal packages with the aim of supporting households, workers and firms. The October 2020-March 2021 SAFE shows that around two-thirds of large firms and SMEs surveyed made use of government policy support measures. Most firms used these schemes, particularly in the form of wage support measures, tax cuts and tax moratoria, to cover their immediate and short-term liquidity needs. Firms also indicated that government measures either currently in place or planned would make it easier for them to meet their debt obligations in the next two years. This demonstrates how government policies have been key to easing the liquidity needs of firms in the short and medium term following the outbreak of the pandemic.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
H32 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Firm
23 June 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box documents the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis on the euro area labour market for men and women. Based on available data up to the end of 2020, the COVID-19 crisis led to a decline in the labour force, a fall in employment and an increase in unemployment, with different developments for men and women across time. Preliminary evidence suggests that workers from both genders benefited from the widespread use of job retention schemes. Still, the decline in average hours worked was somewhat more pronounced for men than for women. The reasons behind the decline in average hours worked differed across gender, with the decline in average hours worked for men driven in part by a decrease in contractual hours and for both men and women by ad hoc reductions in hours worked. This, in turn, increased the gap between the actual hours worked and the contractual hours of work. These developments can also be attributed to the asymmetric sectoral impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Overall, the available evidence suggests that both men and women were strongly affected by the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the euro area labour market.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J16 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Gender, Non-labor Discrimination
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
22 June 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2021
Details
Abstract
The globalisation of inflation hypothesis argues that the factors influencing inflation dynamics are becoming increasingly global. The interest in the global determinants of inflation stems from the observed co-movement of inflation rates across advanced economies (AEs) amid the growing internationalisation of goods, services and financial markets. This article reviews recent inflation developments across AEs and the channels through which globalisation can feed into the more persistent component of inflation. The article finds that three elements of globalisation appear to be linked to a lower persistent inflation: trade integration, informational globalisation and global value chain participation. However, available estimates suggest that this effect is economically small, and the article concludes that globalisation does not appear to be a key determinant of the synchronisation and decline in inflation rates observed across AEs. Looking ahead a reversal (or further slowdown) of globalisation trends could provide only limited tailwinds for inflation trends.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
21 June 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2021
Details
Abstract
Amid elevated volatility in economic activity and international trade due to the pandemic, the overall euro area current account surplus narrowed only slightly in 2020 compared with 2019, from 2.3% to 2.2% of GDP. However, external transactions in the current account contracted sharply during the first half of the year, following the outbreak of the pandemic and the introduction of measures to contain its spread. The economic repercussions of the pandemic were particularly visible in the trade in services balance, where travel restrictions led to a sharp reduction in the euro area surplus on travel services.
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
21 June 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2021
Details
Abstract
During the pandemic, euro area house price dynamics remained robust, notwithstanding a general deterioration in macroeconomic conditions. The pandemic has caused the number of housing transactions to fall, triggering a quantity adjustment rather than a price adjustment. Favourable financing conditions and fiscal policies are supporting household income and have cushioned negative effects on house prices. Moreover, weak construction activity since the start of the pandemic has weighed on supply, possibly adding to upward price pressures on existing housing. The observed resilience of euro area house prices appears to be broad-based and not limited to developments in capital cities in the euro area.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
10 June 2021
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
5 May 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021
Details
Abstract
We show how heterogeneous expectations across agents can change the macroeconomic outcomes of an increase in long-term inflation expectations. A broad-based expectation of higher longer-term inflation can be expected to lift the short to medium-term inflation outlook and have an expansionary effect on economic activity. If the financial markets are the only segment of the economy repricing higher longer-term inflation expectations, the associated tightening of financing conditions would hamper firms’ and households’ expenditure decisions and prevent any price pressures from building up.
JEL Code
E1 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
I1 : Health, Education, and Welfare→Health
23 April 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 66 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges took place between 23 March and 1 April 2021. According to these contacts, activity in much of the services sector continued to be strongly influenced by the prevalence of lockdowns and travel restrictions. Meanwhile, in the manufacturing sector, supply was increasingly failing to keep up with demand owing to shortages of inputs, which may continue for some weeks or months. Industrial companies pointed to some upward movement in prices, while prices in the services sector remained subdued.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
25 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box shows how the economic impact of containment measures adopted in response to the pandemic differed across sectors and countries, and over time. The impact is assessed with a cross-sector vector autoregression (VAR) model. The results confirm that containment measures had a relatively large impact on sectors with non-teleworkable, contact-intensive occupations, such as recreational services. They also show that the impact of the measures varied across countries largely due to the different economic structures and containment policies. There is evidence that economic agents learned how to cope with the restrictions over time. This suggests that more targeted measures, coupled with behavioural responses by households and firms, helped limit the economic costs of containment policies during the renewed wave. Looking ahead, the large divergence in the economic impact of restrictions across sectors is likely to persist at least in the short term.
JEL Code
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
25 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the seventh and eighth reserve maintenance periods from 4 November 2020 to 26 January 2021.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
24 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
Profit margins are an integral part of domestic price setting and have had an impact on the response of euro area inflation to the COVID-19 shock. While profits have fallen more strongly during the COVID-19 crisis than during earlier recessions, profit margins have shown an unusually high degree of resilience relative to the depth of the recession. The resilience of profit margins likely reflects the normal resilience of profit margins observed in recessions and, in addition, the impact of job retention schemes.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
24 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
This article reviews recent evidence on the interaction between monetary policy and household inequality. While economic inequality has been trending upwards in most advanced economies since the early 1980s, this analysis concludes that monetary policy has not been a major driver of those long-term trends. On the contrary, the accommodative monetary policies of recent years have had an equalising effect, particularly through employment gains for lower income households. Moreover, there is now more evidence showing that the distribution of income and wealth plays a key role in the transmission of monetary policy to household spending. However, while improvements to models and data have contributed to a better understanding of the ways in which household heterogeneity shapes the transmission of monetary policy, several unsolved puzzles remain, necessitating further research efforts.
JEL Code
D3 : Microeconomics→Distribution
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
23 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
Consumers’ inflation expectations play a key role in the monetary transmission mechanism. As such, it is crucial for monetary policymakers to understand their nature and how they are formed. This article shows that inflation (un)certainty is a channel that can shed light on some of the more puzzling aspects of reported quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations. It helps explain why these may be higher than actual inflation. This is because, in a situation of uncertainty, many consumers report in rounded numbers, often leading them to quantitatively overestimate inflation. We also show that the uncertainty framework fits with some of the stylised facts of consumers’ inflation expectations, such as their correlation with sociodemographic characteristics and economic sentiment. Furthermore, the uncertainty channel may also explain the negative correlation observed between the economic outlook and inflation expectations.
JEL Code
D11 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Theory
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
22 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box examines developments in the euro area stock of capital, discusses how investment and depreciation rates have affected the capital stock in different directions, and reviews the varying impacts of the crisis across assets. The sharp decline in activity stemming from the pandemic and the associated containment measures has so far not translated into a sharp decline in the euro area capital stock.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
4 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
Details
Abstract
Housing costs represent a large share of the household budget. Developments in these costs are not only linked to house prices, rent and mortgage costs but are also influenced by certain household characteristics, such as tenure status. This is due to the fact that tenants and less affluent households, for example, tend to spend a large share of their income on housing. In addition, household characteristics affect the negative relationship between homeownership and the housing burden. Households with a higher income and living in larger households are predominantly homeowners. That said, higher homeownership rates are not, in themselves, necessarily good or bad, as they can be associated with a range of both positive and negative economic outcomes.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
4 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
Details
Abstract
We augment the ECB-BASE model using the predictive dynamics of an SIR model in order to assess the interplay between epidemiological fundamentals, containment policies and the macroeconomy, investigating the macro impact of pandemic-related risk factors associated with a medical solution to the COVID‑19 crisis.
JEL Code
E1 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
I1 : Health, Education, and Welfare→Health
3 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
Details
Abstract
As part of the process of gathering information on the outlook for economic activity and prices, the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains regular contacts with non-financial companies. This gathering of business intelligence has become more structured over time and tends to be particularly valuable during exceptional periods, such as those resulting from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Therefore, starting with this issue of the Economic Bulletin, the ECB will provide a summary of the main findings from its contacts with leading euro area businesses. This article explains how these interactions contribute to the ECB’s economic analysis and how they are organised and summarised. The main findings from the most recent exchanges with companies, which took place in early January, are summarised in Box 1.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
1 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
Details
Abstract
The response to the COVID-19 outbreak with lockdowns implies both a shutdown of some markets and a severe economic downturn. Price developments have been influenced in a complex manner by different demand and supply factors, which limits the applicability of past empirical regularities in the interpretation of recent aggregate inflation developments. This article looks at this complexity and applies a component-by-component approach to analysing HICP inflation that takes into account the circumstances prevailing in individual markets. The article analyses how sub-components of euro area inflation have behaved since the onset of the pandemic. It then elaborates on the relative importance of demand and supply factors driving the disaggregated price developments and the implications for headline inflation. The article concludes with the lessons that can be learnt from this bottom-up analysis, an approach that is particularly suited to current circumstances.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
7 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box examines the fiscal policy recommendations addressed to the euro area countries against the background of the COVID-19 crisis.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
7 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth reserve maintenance periods from 22 July to 3 November 2020.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
6 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
Digitalisation – the diffusion of digital technologies, leading to a digital economy is “virtually everywhere”. It transforms economies, making it an important issue from a central banking perspective. Some of the key effects of digitalisation relevant to monetary policy relate to output and productivity, labour markets, wages and prices. This article summarises and updates the evidence on the euro area and the EU digital economy. This article also takes a closer look at the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the digital economy, both in the short term and beyond.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
6 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
This article analyses labour market developments in the euro area since the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Total hours worked declined sharply in the first half of 2020. However, employment and unemployment reacted only weakly to the marked fall in GDP, as many workers remained employed under job retention schemes. These contributed to a fall in compensation per employee and an increase in compensation per hour worked. Participation in the labour force also dropped substantially, more than offsetting the increase observed since mid-2013. An analysis of the decomposition of labour market shocks via a sign-restricted structural vector-autoregressive model shows that both supply and demand shocks contributed to the decline in total hours worked. High-frequency indicators on hiring rates and job postings have declined sharply since April and continue to indicate a depressed level of labour demand. However, employment and hours worked recovered somewhat in the third quarter. Nonetheless, the COVID-19 pandemic is having a heterogeneous impact on employment across euro area countries and there is the risk of a further increase in geographic divergence in euro area labour markets. Temporary employees, the young and workers with low levels of education were the most affected, while teleworking may have played a role in supporting employment and hours worked for some workers in certain sectors. Activity sectors such as trade and transport and recreation activities have been disproportionately affected, with the largest decreases in hours worked. However, it is too early to assess the extent to which the pandemic will affect the need for labour reallocation across sectors, tasks and occupations.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
5 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
The exceptional contraction in economic activity induced by the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) has warranted an update of the standard toolkit used to forecast euro area real GDP in real time. This box describes the adjustments and the additions to the standard toolkit developed by ECB staff to account for the dramatic change in statistical and economic relationships due to COVID-19. The use of each individual tool is subject to a considerable degree of judgment as to the type of adjustment needed to best capture the sharp movements in economic activity. These tools have provided helpful insights into forecasting euro area real GDP in real time, even if they imply some shortcomings.
JEL Code
C18 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Methodological Issues: General
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
5 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
The Bulgarian lev and the Croatian kuna were included in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) on 10 July 2020. This marks a milestone towards further enlargement of the euro area. The process unfolded along a roadmap agreed by the various ERM II parties, which reflects the lessons learned from the past and the creation of banking union, as well as a careful assessment of country-specific strengths and vulnerabilities. First, this article briefly reviews the history, main features and procedures of ERM II. It then argues on the basis of quantitative evidence that the process of euro adoption may induce a regime shift when a country joins ERM II. This shift may alter the economic incentives of both domestic and foreign investors and the authorities of the Member State concerned, with important policy implications. For this reason, countries need sound policies, governance and institutions in order to allocate international financial inflows and domestic credit efficiently. They must also address risks with adequate macroeconomic, macroprudential, supervisory and structural measures. Drawing on this analysis, the third part of the article explains the rationale for ERM II participation and the roadmap towards it that has been successfully implemented for Bulgaria and Croatia. This includes the completion of several policy measures before joining ERM II, as well as post-entry policy commitments made by the Bulgarian and Croatian authorities. The article concludes by highlighting the way ahead and challenges faced by the two countries on the path towards euro adoption.
JEL Code
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F02 : International Economics→General→International Economic Order
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
4 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of an ad hoc ECB survey of leading euro area companies looking at the long-term effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the economy. The responses indicate that companies see the pandemic having a long-term impact both on supply and demand. The pandemic has required firms to implement changes that they consider will make their business more efficient and resilient in the long term and help cope with changes in the structure of demand and consumer behaviour. Almost all the companies that responded said they have accelerated the adoption of digital technologies. They also expect that significantly increased use of the “home office” will continue, which they do not see as negatively impacting productivity. Most respondents expect productivity to increase as a long-term consequence of the pandemic, the other side of this coin, however, is lower employment, given the expectation of protracted reduced demand in some sectors.
2 December 2020
OTHER PUBLICATION
10 November 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2020
Details
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered large shifts in household consumption as well as issues related to price collection. We construct a monthly-reweighted consumer price index for the euro area which is able to capture part of the changes in household consumption since the beginning of the pandemic. In this way, we quantify the gap between published HICP inflation and the inflation rate of the items actually purchased by final consumers. Furthermore, we discuss the issue of price imputation and its impact on published statistics.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
10 November 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2020
Details
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic almost certainly affected potential output negatively via various channels, affecting the trends of total factor productivity, capital and labour. Quantitative estimates show that euro area potential growth will likely stall or even decline in 2020 and the pace of the recovery is highly uncertain, as it depends on whether the shock is temporary or persistent. Comprehensive policy measures are playing a crucial role in preventing hysteresis in the euro area economy and long-term economic scarring.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
24 September 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods spanning from 6 May to 21 July 2020.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
24 September 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020
Details
Abstract
Firms’ demand for bank loans has been at a record-high level since March 2020 as firms have scrambled to bridge liquidity gaps originating from the COVID-19 shock. To help banks accommodate the surge in loan demand at favourable conditions, most euro area governments have implemented schemes of public guarantees on bank loans. These transfer some of the arising credit risk and eventual credit losses from banks to governments, thereby mitigating the costs for banks. The features of the loan guarantee schemes’ vary across countries as well as their actual use, with higher take-ups being reported in Spain and France, while lower amounts have been taken up in Italy and Germany. Moreover, SMEs in the sectors most affected by the crisis (e.g. trade, tourism, transport) seem to have benefited the most from these programmes. Overall, public loan guarantee schemes have played a key role in supporting corporate lending dynamics since April and preserving favourable lending conditions. The phasing out of these schemes needs to be carefully aligned with corporate financing needs in the months ahead, while their potential side-effects warrant monitoring.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
H81 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, Grants, Bailouts
23 September 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020
Details
Abstract
Fiscal policy is playing a key role in stemming the economic fallout from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In addition to the discretionary fiscal policy measures employed by governments, automatic fiscal stabilisers play an important role in cushioning the economic downturn. This article shows that automatic fiscal stabilisers are generally sizeable in the euro area, but vary significantly across Member States. However, their effectiveness may be more limited at the current juncture, given the nature of the COVID-19 crisis and the high uncertainty surrounding its effects. This provides a rationale for a stronger role of discretionary fiscal policy at national and European level. Over the medium term, fiscal policies could increasingly make use of quasi-automatic fiscal instruments that provide additional timely, targeted and temporary macroeconomic stabilisation for the euro area. Careful consideration should be given to the design of such instruments over the business cycle, their economic efficiency, and to the need for building fiscal buffers in good times.
JEL Code
H12 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Crisis Management
H20 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→General
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
22 September 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020
Details
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered an unprecedented increase in uncertainty. This box shows how selected measures of uncertainty have evolved during the past few months and exploits the information embedded in the measure of macroeconomic uncertainty to assess its impact on economic activity. This is done by using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model which allows the dynamic effect of an uncertainty shock on the variable of interest to be estimated.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
D80 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→General
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
10 September 2020
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
10 September 2020
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
6 August 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box reviews the recent decision on the inclusion of the Bulgarian lev and the Croatian kuna in ERM II from a historical, institutional, policy and economic perspective. It explains the key features of ERM II, describes the process and rationale underlying the decision, including the prior and post‑ERM II entry policy commitments made by the Bulgarian and Croatian authorities, and explains the key elements that were taken into consideration when defining the central rate of the lev and the kuna against the euro in the exchange rate mechanism.
JEL Code
F02 : International Economics→General→International Economic Order
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
30 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
Qualitative indications from banks on firms’ loan demand and actual loan growth generally correlate with developments in real economic variables. However, during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, longer-term lending seems to have decoupled from developments in fixed investment. Owing in part to sizeable monetary and fiscal policy support measures, firms’ demand for longer-term loans has increased, while their financing need for fixed investment has declined. By contrast, developments in short-term loans for firms continue to co-move closely with their loan demand for working capital, owing to their acute liquidity needs during the pandemic. Loan demand increased more strongly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) than for large firms in the second quarter of 2020, benefiting substantially from the policy support measures for bank lending during the pandemic. Developments across economic sectors have been heterogeneous during the pandemic. In the sectors most affected by the crisis, demand for bank loans increased considerably, while value added dropped. The decline in gross value added in the manufacturing sector is particularly relevant in explaining the fall in business investment during the pandemic. While some degree of recovery in investment activity is expected in the second half of 2020, the end of fiscal support schemes in some countries may lead to renewed fears about the creditworthiness of borrowers. Overall, the continuation of a supportive policy environment in the near future will be crucial in preserving favourable financing conditions and facilitating the flow of credit to firms.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
30 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box examines the impact of the ECB’s monetary policy measures taken in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, focusing on asset purchases and the targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III). It outlines how the ECB’s response centred on addressing three key issues: (i) market stabilisation, (ii) providing central bank liquidity to maintain credit provision to the real economy, and (iii) ensuring that the overall monetary policy stance is sufficiently accommodative. The box sets out in detail how the ECB’s measures have indeed proved an effective and efficient response to the COVID-19 crisis, in turn providing crucial support to the real economy and to price stability across two dimensions, namely underpinning the medium-term growth and inflation outlook and removing tail risks around the baseline outlook. These measures are a proportionate response under current conditions given that the ECB’s price stability objective would have been subject to further downside risks in the absence of such measures.
JEL Code
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
29 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
With the ageing of the baby boom generation, the population share of the older working-age cohort, i.e. those between 55 and 74 years, has been gradually increasing. This age group has also seen a considerable rise in the labour force participation rate. This article examines the reasons behind the increase across euro area countries. Most euro area countries adopted substantial pension reforms in the last two decades to reduce risks to long-term fiscal sustainability. These pension reforms, complemented by other labour market reforms, can be expected to have boosted the labour force participation rate of older workers. While other factors, like better health conditions, rising life expectancy, higher educational levels, mainly among women, rising net wealth and labour market conditions have likely contributed, they alone cannot explain the particularly sharp rebound in the participation rate of older workers since 2000. The macroeconomic shock due to the on-going lock-down measures may, however, put further increases of the labour force participation rate at risk.
JEL Code
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J14 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of the Elderly, Economics of the Handicapped, Non-Labor Market Discrimination
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J26 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Retirement, Retirement Policies
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
29 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box examines high-frequency data to quantify the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on both job postings and hiring patterns in the euro area. Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, both of these indicators had increased steadily year on year, reflecting a rise in the number of job findings in the euro area. However, both the Indeed job postings and the LinkedIn hiring rate have declined significantly since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis and the lockdowns, with the hiring rate bottoming out in May 2020. While the decline in the hiring rate was broad-based across sectors, the intensity of the COVID-19 shock is asymmetric, with sectors such as recreation, travel and manufacturing being more affected by the crisis than others, such as healthcare, software and IT services sectors. Based on the high-frequency information derived from the hiring rate, the implied unemployment rate is expected to peak during the second quarter of 2020 and to be around 2.3 percentage points higher than in February. Overall, the methodology and the high-frequency data used in this box allow for a timely assessment of developments in the euro area labour market. The use of job flows in and out of unemployment helps to enhance our understanding of the labour market adjustment during the current COVID-19 crisis.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
29 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box analyses labour market developments in the euro area since the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, contrasting the developments in business and consumer survey data with the main headline labour market indicators for the euro area. On the one hand, business and consumer survey data point to a strong deterioration in the euro area labour market since the introduction of the containment measures to limit the spread of the virus. On the other hand, the extensive margin of the labour market has shown a muted response, with both employment and unemployment adjusting moderately to the COVID-19 shock. The adjustment of the euro area labour market is occurring instead via a strong decline in the average number of hours worked per employed person, shaped by the widespread use of short-time work schemes in the euro area. These schemes have been successful in containing dismissals, supporting incomes and helping firms to effectively reduce their payroll costs and liquidity needs, while maintaining the worker-job relationship. However, the continued success of the widespread use of short-term work schemes in supporting the euro area labour market depends critically on the dynamics and duration of the crisis.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
28 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
Food prices are an important driver of euro area HICP due to their sizeable share in the consumption basket and their volatility. This box reviews the food price increases in April 2020 and finds that they were unusual in terms of their size and the circumstances surrounding them. The developments in April 2020 most likely reflected strong increases in demand combined with supply-side effects related to the lockdown and containment measures caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Owing to strong food sector supply linkages within the euro area, the disruption of supply chains within the euro area observed during the COVID-19 pandemic may have had important implications for the food supply and consumer prices. To conclude, the box highlights that, while the May and preliminary June data show signs of normalisation in price changes, the possibility remains of upside price pressures in the short term and downside price pressures in the medium term.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
28 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
After a pronounced decline until mid-April 2020, near-term earnings growth expectations derived from surveys and derivatives pricing in euro area equity markets appear to have troughed as the economic recovery is expected to gradually take hold. At the same time, a number of indicators show that investors remain concerned about a more protracted weakness in the euro area economy. Moreover, and despite a significant improvement since the announcement of the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), market participants continue to price significant downside risks in equity markets in a highly uncertain environment. Nevertheless, equity prices continue to increase against the backdrop of a stabilisation in risk sentiment, global policy support, and the fact that tail risks of an imminent global financial crisis have faded to some extent. However, if current expectations of a recovery in earnings turn out to be overly optimistic, there will be substantial risks of significant renewed declines in equity prices.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
27 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
The article explores the behaviour and characteristics of durable goods consumption in the euro area, including an examination of the degree of heterogeneity among the euro area’s largest countries, and offers a perspective based on business cycle turning points. It also covers the relevance of financing conditions, including a specific focus on car purchases, as well as long-run trends in relative price and shares of durable goods in consumption. The analysis is complemented by insights from an empirical (structural VAR) model as described in Casalis and Krustev (2020, ECB Working Paper Series, No 2386), which sheds further light on the importance of durable goods-specific factors, alongside more traditional factors, in driving consumption.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
27 July 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2020
Details
Abstract
The world economy is facing an unprecedented shock, and as the impact of the pandemic unfolds, world trade will be hit particularly hard. Global value chain linkages are likely to magnify the impact. This box assesses the effects of disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and provides estimates of the impact on world trade. We find that GVC spillovers could significantly amplify the decline in world trade.
JEL Code
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
18 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box examines regional developments in labour input within the euro area since the peak in economic activity before the global financial crisis (GFC). It reveals that the increase in total hours worked during the recovery that followed the GFC was greater than the decline during the recession only for regions at the top of the GDP per capita distribution. Overall, the evolution of total hours worked in the euro area between 2007 and 2018 was quite heterogeneous across regions, with hours worked being more insulated from the fall in GDP in richer regions during the recession period and poorer regions not converging with their richer counterparts during the recovery that followed. The smaller decline in total hours worked in the richer regions during the downturn and the similar growth rates observed during the recovery are the main sources of the regional heterogeneity in the time pattern of total hours worked, and can be attributed to changes in the employment rate, to the decline in average hours worked during the recession period, and to the stability of regional differences in population growth during both periods, with the latter factor being consistent with labour migrating from poorer to richer regions.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
18 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the first two reserve maintenance periods of 2020, which ran from 29 January to 5 May 2020.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
17 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box reviews recent developments in short-time work and temporary lay-off schemes in the five largest euro area countries. It then calculates wage replacement rates and estimates take-up rates. Combining wage replacement rates with the estimated number of participants makes it possible to calculate the impact of short-time work on household disposable income. The box concludes that short-time work and temporary lay-off measures are significantly buffering the impact of COVID-19 on households’ disposable income.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
17 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box presents evidence on the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) based on the results of the 22nd round of the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE).
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
17 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
Details
Abstract
The spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic across the globe has led to significant declines in major equity indices and a spike in volatility to values above those recorded in the aftermath of the default of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. In line with the sharp rise in current risks, investors also raised their expectations of future risks, as shown by a widening of the risk-neutral density of future euro area equity returns. The increase in perceived risks accompanied a noticeable rise in investors’ risk aversion to negative tail events. More recently, and following the announcement of significant monetary and fiscal policy stimulus, the estimated tail risk aversion has been declining, while expected risks remain elevated.
JEL Code
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
16 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
Details
Abstract
Using information derived from the survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), this article provides an overview of the changes in the financing conditions experienced by euro area companies over the last ten years. The focus is on non-financial small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Following the Global Financial Crisis and during the subsequent euro area sovereign debt crisis, access to external finance for these firms was severely impaired. This was followed by a steady improvement in financial conditions, particularly due to support from the accommodative monetary policy measures introduced since 2012. Despite a gradual improvement since the mid-2010s, challenges for SMEs’ access to finance remained, for example in terms of funding diversification, even before the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started at the end of 2019. The outbreak of the recent pandemic raised some new, severe and immediate challenges for SMEs in terms of their access to financing. An accompanying box in this issue of the Economic Bulletin summarises the results of the latest SAFE survey, which took place in March and April 2020, in the midst of the coronavirus crisis.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
14 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
Details
Abstract
In this box we review price measurement issues that can arise in times of economic distress. First, we discuss how consumers’ substitution across items in the face of an economic downturn can drive a wedge between published statistics and household consumption prices. We present some evidence from previous recessions along with the historical weights of the aggregated HICP. Second, we discuss additional challenges generated by the ongoing Coronavirus outbreak. Lastly, we discuss possible implications for policymakers.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
13 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
Details
Abstract
This article explains how negative rates are transmitted via banks and financial markets, both via standard transmission channels and via channels specific to negative interest rates. The latter can enhance the stimulus, but may also hinder it, in particular in the case of protracted periods of negative rates. Euro area bank profitability has been persistently low since the financial crisis, and this has the potential to impair bank lending. At the same time, profits have increased since 2014 and the impact of negative interest rates is assessed as broadly neutral so far, as the negative contribution to net interest income has been offset by the positive impact on borrower creditworthiness. Finally, the article reports empirical evidence – drawn from a range of studies – on how negative rates affect the broader economy, starting with bank portfolio allocation decisions, lending volumes and lending rates. The article then elaborates on the impact of the negative rate policy on key macroeconomic aggregates, notably economic activity and inflation.
JEL Code
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
12 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
Details
Abstract
The growth slowdown in 2018-2019 was characterised by a marked divergence of industrial production and retail sales. This box seeks to uncover whether the euro area economy was hit by aggregate or sectoral shocks in this period. It finds that most of the growth slowdown can be explained by a series of adverse sectoral shocks. It also finds that, on average, sectoral shocks have a less persistent impact on economic activity than aggregate shocks. The recent COVID-19 shock is undoubtedly an aggregate shock. Yet its impact on economic activity over time remains very uncertain as its characteristics differ substantially from past aggregate shocks.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
12 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box suggests that between January 2018 and February 2020 both foreign and domestic factors contributed substantially to the decline in manufacturing growth in the euro area, while services were more resilient. Economic activity fell sharply in March 2020 as a result of the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), although part of the drop in manufacturing and services is explained by domestic factors. Owing to the coronavirus and the associated containment measures, the economic outlook remains highly uncertain.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
C50 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→General
11 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
Details
Abstract
Aggregate exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import and consumer prices is lower in the EU than it was in the 1990s and is found to be non-linear. Low estimated aggregate ERPT to consumer prices does not mean that the exchange rate movements do not matter for inflation, as aggregate estimates mask substantial heterogeneities across countries, industries and time periods due to structural, cyclical and policy factors. Key structural characteristics that explain ERPT across industries or sectors are: import content of consumption; share of imports invoiced in own currency or in a third dominant currency; integration of a country and its trading partners in global value chains; and market power. In line with the literature, different types of shocks that move the exchange rate in the euro area elicit different price responses, so the combination of shocks that lie behind changes in the exchange rate at any point in time matters for the ERPT. Finally, monetary policy itself affects the ERPT and credible and active monetary policy lowers the observed ex post ERPT. Moreover, under the effective lower bound, credible non-standard monetary policy actions have a larger ERPT to consumer prices. Instead of rules of thumb, in order to assess the impact of exchange rate changes when forecasting inflation, it is better to use structural models with sufficient feedback loops that take into account the role of expectations and monetary policy reaction., share of imports invoiced in own currency or in a third dominant currency, integration of a country and its trading partners in global value chains, and market power. In line with the literature, different types of shocks that move the exchange rate in the euro area elicit different price responses, so the combination of shocks that lie behind changes in the exchange rate at any point in time matters for the ERPT. Finally, monetary policy itself affects the ERPT and credible and active monetary policy lowers the observed ex post ERPT. Moreover, under the effective lower bound, credible non-standard monetary policy actions have a larger ERPT to consumer prices. Instead of rules of thumb, in order to assess the impact of exchange rate changes when forecasting inflation, it is better to use structural models with sufficient feedback loops that take into account the role of expectations and monetary policy reaction.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
1 May 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box presents illustrative ECB staff scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity in the euro area. The unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the developments and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic warrants an analysis based on alternative scenarios. These illustrative ECB staff scenarios point to a drop in euro area GDP of between 5% and 12% in 2020. At its trough, quarterly real GDP growth could be as low as around -15% in the second quarter of 2020 under a severe scenario.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E33 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
8 April 2020
OTHER PUBLICATION
Colloquium in honour of Benoît Coeuré, held on 17-18 December 2019
26 March 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the seventh and eighth reserve maintenance periods of 2019, which ran from 30 October to 17 December 2019 and from 18 December 2019 to 28 January 2020, respectively.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
26 March 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2020
Details
Abstract
This article first stresses the importance for a central bank of having a reliable quantitative framework for obtaining a real-time assessment of developments in economic activity in the near term and discusses associated challenges. Second, it presents the framework for short-term forecasting of euro area real GDP growth used at the ECB. The article evaluates the forecast performance of the framework, also comparing it with the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections. It also illustrates how the framework is used to i) analyse the role that data surprises play in the revisions to the outlook and ii) assess risks to the projections. It concludes by pointing out directions for future work.
JEL Code
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
12 March 2020
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
6 February 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020
Details
Abstract
Survey evidence suggests a further deterioration in the euro area outlook for manufacturing investment in the near term. Country and sectoral-level survey results point to the German manufacturing sector as the key driver behind the waning outlook for investment. Business investment in R&D is also expected to remain subdued.
JEL Code
E0 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
5 February 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020
Details
Abstract
This article focuses on household wealth in the euro area from a macroeconomic perspective. It describes developments in financial and non-financial wealth and their driving forces. The impact of wealth on private consumption is then discussed. It concludes with some monetary policy implications.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
5 February 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020
Details
Abstract
Foreign trade zones (FTZs) are designed to promote economic development by favouring international trade, especially trade within global production networks. In FTZs, a substantial share of imports (ranging from 12-17% of total domestic imports) is manufactured and, in part, re-exported. FTZs can break the “chain effect” of tariffs because intermediate goods imported via FTZs enjoy preferential treatment or even duty exemption. This already occurs in the United States and is under consideration in China, where capital controls in FTZs are looser and tax advantages already exist. In the European Union, however, FTZs are mainly used to smooth out customs processes, while an import duty suspension scheme is used to grant favourable treatment to imports of intermediates.
JEL Code
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
4 February 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020
Details
Abstract
Bank lending to euro area corporates has gradually recovered since 2014, supported by very favourable financing conditions. An assessment of this recovery indicates that it has been broadly in line with economic activity, although loan growth has remained below pre-crisis levels. The moderate pace of the recovery in loan growth mainly reflects the post-crisis deleveraging process and the growing relevance of alternative sources of financing, as well as somewhat weaker economic activity compared with the pre-crisis period. Nevertheless, evidence suggests that bank lending to non-financial corporations has supported firms’ business investment. The strength of the relationship between business investment and bank lending to corporates has, however, differed across euro area countries. Qualitative and quantitative evidence shows that the recovery in bank lending to corporates has received strong support from the ECB’s non-standard monetary policy measures.
JEL Code
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
3 February 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box reviews developments in non-euro area EU countries in central and eastern Europe with respect to trade integration and economic synchronisation with the euro area and investigates the potential exposure of their export dynamics to changing external conditions. The six economies are now an integral part of European production networks and net exports are a key driver of business cycle synchronisation with the euro area. In recent years, however, the business cycles of the six countries have somewhat decoupled from euro area economic activity. The potential drivers of this decoupling include robust domestic demand, lingering effects of past foreign direct investment in industry, the nature and final use of exports and the resilience of exports to countries outside the euro area. So far, the ongoing moderation in manufacturing, including in the automotive industry in Germany, and the escalation of trade tensions have been only partly reflected in the six economies.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box reports the responses to an ad hoc question in the latest Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) regarding the export activities of euro area small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). In general, just over a third of euro area SMEs exported goods or services outside their domestic market. About half of those exported outside Europe, of which 60% to North America and 40% to China. Comparing sectors, export activities seem to be quite strong among SMEs in the industrial sector, followed by trade and services, but more limited in construction. Exporters, particularly those exporting outside Europe, tend to have a strong equity base and use trade credit. They also make more use of subsidised loans and tend to be more innovative.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box proposes two complementary tools for assessing the performance of the labour market in the euro area. The first is a visualisation tool in the form of a spider chart that displays 18 variables characterising the current euro area labour market conditions. The second applies a principal component analysis to the variables in the spider chart and summarises the information on labour market conditions in two indicators: level of activity and labour market momentum. These indicators show that, in the second quarter of 2019, the level of activity in the euro area labour market was at a level comparable with the pre-crisis peak, while the labour market momentum remains elevated but is declining somewhat. The analysis suggests that there is scope for the level of activity in the euro area labour market to continue to improve in the near term, benefiting from an overall still positive labour market momentum.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth reserve maintenance periods of 2019, which ran from 31 July to 17 September 2019 and from 18 September to 29 October 2019 respectively.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
The expansion of global value chains (GVCs) over the past decades has influenced how trade tariffs affect economic activity. Global sourcing activities of firms imply that a tariff, usually imposed to protect a domestic industry, can entail higher input costs for other industries. The empirical evidence presented here corroborates this point: tariffs that raise input costs are found to negatively affect the output of industries relying on foreign sourcing. The analysis further suggests that the sensitivity of trade to tariffs is higher for production stages further downstream in global supply chains. In the context of the current trade dispute between the United States and China, this evidence may be of relevance, since the US tariffs against China affected a large number of intermediate goods and Chinese exports to the United States – in part – relate to downstream production stages of GVCs.
JEL Code
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
Although recent wage growth has increasingly been in line with predictions, there has been a period of low and under-predicted wage growth in the euro area. This period of weak wage growth can be explained to a large extent by the drivers traditionally captured in a Phillips curve analysis, such as economic slack (including broader measures of labour market slack) and inflation expectations. However, these factors do not paint the full picture, as wages were consistently under-predicted during the period 2013-17. As wages differ across sectors and according to employees’ individual characteristics, significant changes in the composition of employment that have taken place in the euro area since the beginning of the crisis could have been an important factor in aggregate wage growth developments. These changes can result from slow-moving trends, cyclical changes or a combination of the two. This article discusses the role of such changes, known as “compositional effects”, in wage growth. It analyses the role of changes in the composition of employment with respect to the individual characteristics of employees (e.g. age, education or gender), employment types (e.g. permanent or temporary contracts) and sectoral shifts. The analysis is mainly based on microdata from the EU survey of income and living conditions, but the article also includes cross-checks and analyses based on the EU Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS) and national accounts data. The analyses indicate that compositional effects pushed up wage growth early in the crisis, but that the effect later decreased and turned negative. This has contributed to a relatively muted response from aggregate wage growth, both to the strong downturn of the labour market early in the crisis and later, from 2014 onwards, to cyclical improvements. Hence compositional effects have been one factor contributing to low wage growth in the euro area. The most important contributions to compositional effects seem to be related to changes in the age and educational structure of the workforce, which can have both a long-term and a cyclical impact. Looking at country-specific evidence, the euro area aggregate results have been influenced by Spain and Italy in particular.
JEL Code
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box informs about the review of draft budgetary plans for 2020 and derives some implications for a reform of fiscal governance. To this end, it also identifies weaknesses in the review exercise notably with respect to the follow-up of recommendations by the Council that the budgetary plans are supposed to entail. It would be important that such shortcomings be addressed, inter alia, in the Commission’s forthcoming review of the “six-pack” and “two-pack” regulations, which were implemented in 2011 and 2013 respectively, in the aim of strengthening fiscal governance.
JEL Code
H11 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
This article examines bank lending conditions for euro area non-financial corporations (NFCs), making use of the wealth of soft information available in the euro area bank lending survey (BLS) since its inception in 2003. One relevant question in this context is whether the tightening of the bank loan supply during the financial and sovereign debt crises has been offset by the easing of bank lending conditions for NFC loans since 2014. The article illustrates that the easing over this period has come mainly through a substantial loosening of the actual terms and conditions applied by banks to new loans to firms of average credit quality, while the credit standards that banks have established for their loan approval decisions have eased by less. The article also draws on the responses of individual banks to examine the differences in bank lending conditions for NFC loans across bank business models. This analysis reveals that the change in credit conditions of banks with business models more reliant on stable funding sources, such as deposits, is more muted. In short, it looks at additional aspects that enhance the regular assessment of bank lending conditions faced by firms based on the euro area BLS.
JEL Code
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
27 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
The box assesses recent developments in social security contributions and minimum wages. It finds that social security contributions have led to a moderation of growth in composition of employee growth, while growth in wages and salaries per employee – excluding employers’ social security contributions – has remained quite robust. Over the last decade minimum wages have affected wage growth substantially in some countries, but only marginally in the euro area.
JEL Code
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J38 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Public Policy
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
20 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
On 30 October 2019 the ECB implemented a two-tier system under which a portion of credit institutions’ excess liquidity holdings with the Eurosystem are exempt from remuneration at negative rates. The aim of the two-tier system is to support the bank-based transmission of monetary policy in preserving the overall positive contribution of negative rates to the accommodative stance of monetary policy. With the introduction of the two-tier system banks holding less excess liquidity than their exemption allowance increased their excess liquidity holdings by borrowing from banks exceeding their exemption allowances. The bulk of banks’ increased borrowing in the money market occurred via secured transactions. Although the increase in trading activity temporarily coincided with higher money market rates, experience with the two-tier system over its first month shows that money market rates were only marginally affected and remain well aligned with the policy rate.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
19 December 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019
Details
Abstract
This article evaluates the performance of the Eurosystem/ ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area in the context of the elevated macroeconomic volatility and uncertainty that has prevailed since the financial crisis. It finds that there has been considerable variability in projection errors over time. With regard to real GDP growth projections, errors that were substantial during the sovereign debt crisis have become more limited in recent years. As for headline inflation, unexpected fluctuations in oil prices – which in the staff macroeconomic projections are assumed to follow the path of oil price futures – played a dominant role in explaining the errors, as was the case during the pre-crisis years. On the other hand, HICP inflation excluding energy and food has been persistently overprojected since 2013. While these projection errors can also partly be attributed to errors in the conditioning technical assumptions, other factors (such as modelling errors, changes in economic relationships or judgement) have also played a key role at different points in time. The forecast performance of the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections has been broadly similar to that of other international institutions and of private sector forecasters, suggesting that projection errors have been mainly driven by common elements. These may include economic shocks unforeseeable to any forecaster and developments that have become more prominent since the financial crisis, including, among other things, structural reforms, changes in the relationship between slack and prices, globalisation and digitalisation.
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
12 December 2019
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
5 November 2019
FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING - CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS
5 November 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box assesses the current cyclical position of the euro area labour market by means of a stylised tracer for employment and output fluctuations using the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey data. This tracer points towards a slowdown in the labour market since February 2018, with the services sector continuing to support employment growth in the euro area, while manufacturing employment has been in a downturn since May 2019. A more granular approach suggests the weakness in manufacturing is more prevalent in the capital goods and motor vehicles industries, while the resilience of the services sector is perceived to be broad-based across industries. Looking ahead downward risks stemming from the transmission of the weakness in manufacturing to the services sector may arise, strengthening the need for close monitoring of the euro area labour market.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
4 November 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of an ad hoc ECB survey of leading euro area companies about their price-setting behaviour, covering various dimensions. Among the findings, it was seen that firms mostly vary their prices by geographical market and by type of customer, but much less so depending on the sales platform. The frequency of price reviews and changes varies significantly across sectors, with weekly or even daily price changes being common for some retailers, while in some parts of the services sector annual price changes are more typical. Manufacturers tend to review prices monthly but change them only on a quarterly, semi-annual or annual basis. Increases in average selling prices are achieved, to a large extent, by introducing new products with higher value content. When reviewing prices, firms pay most attention to costs and competitor prices, with the latter being particularly important for consumer-facing firms. Many factors contribute to sluggish price adjustment: pricing strategies are based on broadly stable costs and margins, a fear that competitors will not follow suit and, for consumer-oriented firms, a focus on pricing points and an understanding that customers expect prices to remain stable.
JEL Code
D4 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L1 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
4 November 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2019
Details
Abstract
Euro area growth has weakened, and economic indicators point to slow growth in coming quarters. This mainly reflects the ongoing weakness in international trade – in an environment of elevated global uncertainties – and its impact on the manufacturing sector. Activity levels in the services sector, by contrast, have remained relatively resilient. However, this raises questions about the extent to which there could be spillovers from the manufacturing sector to the services sector in the future. An analysis of the relationship between manufacturing and various sub-groups of the services sector shows that non-market services exhibit a weak co-movement with the cyclical developments in manufacturing. In contrast, market services and business services tend to move with manufacturing, but as yet there is limited evidence that the recent slowdown in manufacturing has been transmitted to these parts of the economy. This is likely to stem from the resilient developments in domestic demand, supported by the very accommodative monetary policy stance, which continues to support labour markets and create favourable financing conditions.
JEL Code
A10 : General Economics and Teaching→General Economics→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
29 October 2019
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 9
Details
Abstract
A recent ECB study shows that leverage is an important driver in investors’ redemption decisions. Regulatory changes to the UCITS framework facilitated the use of derivatives, increasing leverage for some European mutual funds which amplified investors' responsiveness to negative returns in a procyclical manner.
JEL Code
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
26 September 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2019, which ran from 17 April to 11 June 2019 and from 12 June to 30 July 2019 respectively.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
26 September 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2019
Details
Abstract
Profits can account for a significant part of domestic price formation and affect the pass-through of changes in costs to final prices. National accounts contain a broad measure of profits, gross operating surplus, which can tell us more about the role of profits for domestic price pressures, as measured in the GDP deflator. This box illustrates how profits have recently shaped domestic price pressures in the euro area. It explains which factors are the main drivers of the movements in profit margins and discusses how they have likely contributed to their recent developments.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
26 September 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box describes the elements and underlying rationale of the Governing Council’s comprehensive policy package decided in September.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
25 September 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2019
Details
Abstract
Evidence suggests that household income risk is an important factor in the propagation of macroeconomic shocks and the transmission of economic policy. An analysis using survey data on income from the euro area suggests that the nature of household income risk in the euro area is comparable with the United States, in that (i) individual earnings risk is closely linked to the performance of the labour market, and (ii) in a downturn it increases much more for some groups of workers than for others. These insights are useful for assessing the current economic outlook and the role of income risk in amplifying macroeconomic shocks.
JEL Code
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
24 September 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box looks at the current employment expansion in the euro area and compares it with past periods of employment growth. It uses annual data for the period 1960-2018 and shows that: (i) the current employment expansion is so far not particularly lengthy in comparison with past recoveries; (ii) the current employment expansion is more employment-rich than previous expansions as employment growth has been stronger relative to GDP growth than it was in the past; (iii) the fast-paced decline in the unemployment rate has been a notable feature of the current expansion; and (iv) the decline in unemployment and the increase in employment in the current expansion have occurred alongside moderating labour costs, but that moderation has been weaker than in the previous expansion., (ii) the current employment expansion is more employment-rich than previous expansions as employment growth has been stronger relative to GDP growth than it was in the past, (iii) the fast-paced decline in the unemployment rate has been a notable feature of the current expansion, and (iv) the decline in unemployment and the increase in employment in the current expansion have occurred alongside moderating labour costs, but that moderation has been weaker than in the previous expansion.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
23 September 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2019
Details
Abstract
Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, the box suggests that the fall in industrial production growth in the euro area in the past year has been driven by both the intensification of global trade tensions and adverse domestic shocks. Whereas in the first half of 2018 weakness in international trade in an environment of global uncertainties was the main contributor to the fall in industrial production, since July 2018 euro area-specific developments have also played a major role.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
C50 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→General
23 September 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2019
Details
Abstract
Data on derivatives transactions have recently become available at a number of central banks, including the ECB, and have opened up new avenues for analysis. Collected as a result of reforms of the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market, which were primarily designed to counter systemic risk, the data have numerous applications beyond the domain of financial stability. This article presents two such applications. It demonstrates how data gathered under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) can be used to better understand two types of derivatives market that are of particular importance for central bank analysis, namely the interest rate derivatives and inflation-linked swap markets. For the interest rate derivatives market, the article shows how investor expectations for interest rates may be inferred through “positioning indicators” that track how a set of “informed investors” take positions in the market in anticipation of future interest rate movements. Such quantity-based indicators can complement other, more established indicators of interest rate expectations, such as forward rates or survey-based measures. For euro area inflation-linked swap markets, the article exploits the fact that EMIR data allow a first systematic look at trading activity in these markets, which can provide valuable and timely information on investors’ inflation expectations. It highlights a number of structural features of activity in these markets and discusses their possible implications for the monitoring of market-based measures of inflation compensation.
JEL Code
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
12 September 2019
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
2 September 2019
FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING - CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS
8 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box shows that the reversal in gross flows of euro area foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2018 was to a large extent due to developments in flows in Luxembourg and the Netherlands, with Ireland and Belgium contributing to a lesser extent. The episode can be explained by the activity of special purpose entities located in these countries and is also likely to be related to the US corporate tax reform.
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F38 : International Economics→International Finance→International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
8 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019
Details
Abstract
Services price inflation tends to be much higher than non-energy goods price inflation. However, the gap between the two has become smaller since the financial crisis. This phenomenon has coincided with the corresponding decline in the gap between unit labour cost growth in the services sector and manufacturing, driven by the decline in unit labour cost growth in the services sector. Overall, the narrowing of the gap between services price inflation and goods price inflation has been a major feature of lower HICP inflation excluding food and energy. However, this measure of underlying inflation would have declined even more had the weight of the services component not changed.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
7 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019
Details
Abstract
At a time of high government indebtedness, low structural economic growth and ageing populations, a key element in today’s policy debate is the role of government in providing its services and distributing resources to society. Government decisions on tax and social benefit systems have an important bearing on macroeconomic performance in the euro area. This article focuses on how social spending on individual households or on the provision of collective goods and services is organised in euro area countries. Choices made concerning the level and structure of social spending are country-specific and reflect societal policy preferences. The aim of this article is to review government social spending across euro area countries and how it has evolved since the pre-crisis period. It also zooms in on the different social insurance systems in euro area countries in terms of pensions and health and looks at spending on education. We devote particular attention to the analysis of pensions, as pensions represent the biggest social spending item in all countries. The article suggests that countries should look for policies and reforms to ensure the sustainability of social spending, especially in view of ageing populations and possible negative economic shocks.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H40 : Public Economics→Publicly Provided Goods→General
H51 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Government Expenditures and Health
H52 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Government Expenditures and Education
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
7 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019
Details
Abstract
This article discusses the crypto-asset phenomenon with a view to understanding its potential risks and enhancing its monitoring. First, it describes the characteristics of the crypto-asset phenomenon, in order to arrive at a clear definition of the scope of monitoring activities. Second, it identifies the primary risks of crypto-assets that warrant continuous monitoring – these risks could affect the stability and efficiency of the financial system and the economy – and outlines the linkages that could cause a risk spillover. Third, the article discusses how, and to what extent, publicly available data allow the identified monitoring needs to be met and, by providing some examples of indicators on market developments, offers insights into selected issues, such as the availability and reliability of data. Finally, it covers selected statistical initiatives that attempt to overcome outstanding challenges.
JEL Code
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
C18 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Methodological Issues: General
6 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box presents a model-based economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index for the euro area by applying machine learning techniques to news articles from January 2000 to May 2019. The machine learning algorithm retrieves components of overall EPU, such as trade, fiscal, monetary or domestic regulations, for a wide range of languages. Recently, a steady and pronounced increase in the euro area EPU index has been observed, driven mainly by trade, domestic regulation and fiscal policy uncertainties.
JEL Code
C1 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
C8 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
6 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019
Details
Abstract
This article discusses the hypothesis that part of the decline in exchange rate pass-through to import prices has been the result of the rise of global value chains.
JEL Code
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
5 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019
Details
Abstract
While both global activity and trade have been declining since mid-2018, world trade has slowed particularly sharply. This box investigates the reasons behind the decline in global trade and its decoupling from economic activity. This is largely explained by a turnaround in the most trade-intensive components of global demand, such as investment, exacerbated by rising global uncertainty and tighter financing conditions. From a production perspective, the decline in investment was reflected in a sharp slowdown in manufacturing output.
JEL Code
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
20 June 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the first and second reserve maintenance periods of 2019, which ran from 30 January to 12 March 2019 and from 13 March to 16 April 2019 respectively.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
20 June 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2019
Details
Abstract
Economic agents’ confidence and developments in the real economy are intrinsically linked. Confidence largely reflects broad economic conditions but, at times, may also become an autonomous source of business cycle fluctuations. This box looks at the potential propagation effects of lower confidence on investment in recent times. Isolating the structural confidence shocks from the euro area Economic Sentiment Indicator and applying them in the ECB’s main macroeconomic projection model suggests that confidence shocks had a positive impact on business investment growth in the last two years and a negative one in 2019.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
20 June 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box analyses recent developments in the financial account of the euro area balance of payments. In 2018, the euro area recorded net financial outflows of 2.7% of GDP amid an overall decline in gross cross-border financial flows. Portfolio investment, particularly in debt securities, continued to be affected by the Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme. At the same time, the euro area recorded a retrenchment in foreign direct investment flows, mainly reflecting transactions vis-à-vis the United States, most likely linked to the US tax reform.
JEL Code
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
19 June 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2019
Details
Abstract
Rent inflation in the euro area has been subdued since the beginning of 2018, notwithstanding dynamics house price developments, and appears as a factor mitigating services and underlying inflation. Several factors affecting rent formation, such as low financing costs and a low-yield environment, may have contributed to these developments. In addition, rent indexation prevents rent from rising freely and a large fraction of existing rental contracts are not subject to rent increases. Relatively subdued rent inflation in the euro area is mainly due to low inflation and a limited turnover in rental contracts.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
19 June 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2019
Details
Abstract
In this article we look at the euro area labour market using the framework underlying the Beveridge curve, which captures the negative relationship between the unemployment rate and the job vacancy rate. The Beveridge curve shows that, at a given moment in time, there are jobs vacant and people unemployed, while the shape and the position of the curve provide important information about the functioning of the labour market. There are two key concepts associated with the Beveridge curve: labour market tightness and matching efficiency. Labour market tightness is the number of vacant posts per each unemployed person and matching efficiency reflects the market’s ability to match individuals to jobs. We analyse the importance of these two concepts for wage developments using a simple version of the search and matching model, where unemployment, wages and vacancies are jointly determined and the Beveridge curve features prominently. First, we derive two aggregate measures that encapsulate the changes in the vacancy -unemployment space: labour market tightness and matching efficiency. Second, we look at the information content behind market tightness and job matching efficiency to analyse the euro area labour market and its cyclical conditions. Third, aggregate measures of labour market tightness and efficiency are used in a standard wage Phillips curve equation to measure their marginal impact. The results support the view that labour market tightness and labour market efficiency both play a role in explaining wage developments. However, the quantitative implications for wages differ only marginally from those of the standard Phillips curve approach. Overall, labour market efficiency provides an important qualitative margin of labour market functioning that is not captured in standard wage Phillips curve specifications.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J63 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Turnover, Vacancies, Layoffs
J64 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
17 June 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box looks at periods of slowdowns during a number of euro area expansionary phases – so-called soft patches – and assesses whether these contain any information with regard to forthcoming business cycle peaks and possible subsequent recessions.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
17 June 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2019
Details
Abstract
In this article we review the evolution of euro area HICP inflation excluding energy and food since the Great Financial Crisis through the lens of the Phillips curve. This period is particularly interesting, as the euro area experienced two recessions (in 2008-2009 and 2011-2014) and a protracted episode of low inflation from 2013 onwards. We estimate a large set of Phillips curve models for the euro area and review the interpretation of inflation developments that they provide over time. We highlight both the advantages and some of the limitations of this type of analysis. We find that our models can account for much of the weakness in underlying inflation between 2013 and mid-2017, but that they cannot account for the most recent weakness in underlying inflation.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
6 June 2019
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
25 April 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2019
Details
Abstract
The evidence presented in this box suggests that the leading and pro-cyclical properties of real M1 for real GDP remain a robust stylised fact for the euro area. Moreover, the box documents that these properties seem to reflect the information content of narrow money, beyond the influence of interest rates. Finally, the box presents model-based evidence indicating that despite the recent deceleration, recent real M1 developments do not point to risks of a recession in the euro area up to early 2020.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
25 April 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box presents a methodology to disentangle four main drivers of EMEs currencies swings: spillovers from US shocks, global risk appetite, interest rate effects and idiosyncratic domestic shocks. The main finding is that while the sell-off - between January and August 2018 - was mainly related to US and global risk factors, the recovery since then is driven by improved domestic conditions.
JEL Code
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
25 April 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box reviews basic characteristics of the Asian tech sector and shows that it has played an important role in the recent weakness in China’s trade. It also suggests that the trend in the global tech cycle associated with weaker trade in Asia may be bottoming out.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
23 April 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2019
Details
Abstract
This article compares the fiscal rule framework in the euro area with the frameworks in the fiscally more integrated United States and Switzerland, with the aim of drawing lessons for ways in which fiscal rules could be reformed in European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Both the United States and Switzerland have a history of balanced budget rules that help stabilise government debt in individual states/cantons at moderate and broadly comparable levels. The recent shift towards balanced budget rules in the euro area is an important achievement in this direction, and has contributed to better average underlying budgetary positions. Still, the fiscal rule framework needs to be rendered more effective in reducing high levels of government debt and their dispersion across the euro area. Reducing the heterogeneity of government debt positions is also an important prerequisite for setting up a well-governed common macroeconomic stabilisation function at the centre of EMU in case of deep economic crises. This in turn would help to contain the procyclicality of fiscal rules at the country level.
JEL Code
H61 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Budget, Budget Systems
H74 : Public Economics→State and Local Government, Intergovernmental Relations→State and Local Borrowing
H77 : Public Economics→State and Local Government, Intergovernmental Relations→Intergovernmental Relations, Federalism, Secession
21 March 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the seventh and eighth reserve maintenance periods of 2018, which ran from 31 October 2018 to 18 December 2018 and from 19 December 2018 to 29 January 2019 respectively.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
21 March 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box looks at the current phase of the business cycle in major non-euro area advanced economies with a view to assessing the factors behind the transition to weaker growth.It shows that in several key advanced economies the output gap is currently in positive territory, with activity still expanding faster than potential. Although growth in non-euro area advanced economies has been slowing, signals of a severe slowdown or recession appear contained. This notwithstanding, downside risks abound and have increased lately.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
21 March 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019
Details
Abstract
The difference between the average interest rate that governments pay on their debt and the nominal growth rate of the economy (i-g) is a key variable for debt dynamics and sovereign sustainability analysis. Recently, i-g has turned negative in most advanced economies, including euro area sovereigns. Empirically, the relevant interest rate-growth differential for public debt dynamics above has been positive for advanced mature economies over longer periods. In particular, i-g can quickly reverse in crisis times, especially for countries with high debt burdens and/or not perceived by markets as safe havens. Overall, In the euro area, the current low interest rate-growth differentials on government debt should not be taken as an incentive for higher debt levels, especially where fiscal space is constrained.
JEL Code
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
21 March 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019
Details
Abstract
Harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICPs) are regularly updated for changes in consumption weights and the items included, and on occasion also for methodological improvements. One such improvement is a change in the way the price index for package holidays is calculated in the HICP for Germany, which was implemented with the HICP release for January 2019. This has led to revisions of annual rates of change not only for Germany, but also for the euro area as a whole.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
19 March 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019
Details
Abstract
Harmonised consumer price indices (HICPs) for food, industrial goods, services and energy are measures the ECB uses for its more detailed analysis of inflation in the euro area. With the release of HICPs for January 2019, these analytical groups – special aggregates – have been improved. They are now calculated from a more detailed classification of products. Another recent enhancement is the extended use of price data collected in form of supermarket scanner data and via web-scraping.
JEL Code
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
19 March 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box highlights the importance of the labour market to sustain economic growth since the beginning of the recovery and underlines the current labour market strength in the face of the recent slowdown in real GDP growth.
JEL Code
C13 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Estimation: General
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
18 March 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019
Details
Abstract
Following the Governing Council’s decision in December 2018 to end net asset purchases under the Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme (APP), this article reviews the implementation and effects of the asset purchases. The APP has proved to be an adaptable and effective instrument to ease monetary and financial conditions, foster economic recovery, counteract disinflationary pressures and anchor inflation expectations, thereby supporting a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation towards price stability. The APP has been part of a package of policy measures together with negative interest rates on the deposit facility, forward guidance and targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs), jointly creating synergies that have enhanced the effectiveness of each of the package’s individual components. From an implementation viewpoint, the Eurosystem ensured that asset purchases were conducted smoothly and flexibly by striving for market neutrality and mitigating unintended side effects for market functioning. Whereas net asset purchases have come to an end, principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP will continue to be reinvested as this, together with enhanced forward guidance, provides the monetary accommodation that the Governing Council judges to be required for the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
7 March 2019
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
7 February 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2019
Details
Abstract
Inflation projections are based on models, assumptions and expert judgement. These include assumptions regarding the future evolution of oil prices, which mainly affect energy prices. Oil prices and oil futures have moved down significantly since autumn 2018, below the assumptions of the December 2018 Eurosystem staff projections. This box documents the mechanical implications of this shift for the projections of the energy component of HICP inflation.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
6 February 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2019
Details
Abstract
The article describes the main transmission channels of the spillovers of national fiscal policies to other countries within a monetary union and investigates their magnitude using different models.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
6 February 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2019
Details
Abstract
Against the background of large swings in oil prices in recent months, the box assesses the key drivers of oil market developments. While demand has been relatively stable, supply factors have been the main driving force behind recent oil price volatility.
JEL Code
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
5 February 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2019
Details
Abstract
For two decades the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) has been collecting point forecasts and probability distributions for euro area-wide HICP inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate at different horizons. This article documents the evolution of the SPF through the changing economic landscape of the past twenty years, including the Great Moderation, with relatively high economic growth and stable inflation, the financial crisis and, more recently, a prolonged period of subdued inflationary pressures. Analyses show that the strong and persistent shocks in the past ten years have created challenges for the stability of the economic relationships and mean reversion tendencies on which forecasts tend to be based. They also suggest that in 2009 there was a lasting increase in forecasters’ assessments of uncertainty across all variables and horizons. Learning from the SPF has remained a useful input for the ECB’s economic analysis and monetary policy.
JEL Code
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
4 February 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2019
Details
Abstract
Activity in the euro area is expected to continue to expand at a moderate pace, while more elevated uncertainty points to intensified downside risks to the growth outlook. In the context of a maturing business cycle, growth in both private consumption and business investment are expected to continue, despite a more uncertain environment. Nevertheless, the resilience of the domestic demand components, in particular investment, could be particularly challenged by increasing global uncertainty related inter alia to an escalation in trade tensions.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
27 December 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2018
Details
Abstract
On 21 November 2018 the European Commission released its opinions on the draft budgetary plans (DBPs) of euro area governments for 2019, together with an analysis of the budgetary situation in the euro area as a whole. Each opinion includes an assessment of the compliance of the relevant plan with the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). This exercise is important as it assesses whether countries have incorporated into their plans the country-specific recommendations for fiscal policies that were addressed to them under the 2018 European Semester, as adopted by the Economic and Financial Affairs Council on 13 July 2018. These recommendations propose, among other things, that countries with high ratios of government debt to GDP aim for a sufficiently fast reduction in indebtedness. This would raise their resilience in a future economic downturn.
JEL Code
H60 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→General
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
27 December 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB's monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth reserve maintenance periods of 2018, which ran from 1 August to 18 September 2018 and from 19 September to 30 October 2018 respectively. Throughout this period the interest rates on the main refinancing operations (MROs), the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility remained unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and ˆ’0.40% respectively. In parallel, the Eurosystem continued to purchase public sector securities, covered bonds, asset-backed securities and corporate sector securities as part of its asset purchase programme (APP), with a target of €30 billion of purchases on average per month until the end of September and €15 billion as of October.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
21 December 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2018
Details
Abstract
Growth in economic activity has moderated significantly in the euro area since the end of 2017. Indeed, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area fell to 0.2% in the third quarter of 2018, down from 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2017. This box assesses the factors which are contributing to that slowdown and looks at whether it should be considered a surprise. In particular, it looks at whether the underlying factors are temporary or of a more permanent nature, whether they have originated within the euro area or externally, and whether the slowdown has been driven by a weakness in demand or a tightening of supply conditions.
JEL Code
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
20 December 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2018
Details
Abstract
The wage drift measures deviations in developments in actual wages from developments in negotiated wages. It is an important element in the macroeconomic analysis of employee compensation because it should be closely linked to cyclical developments in the labour market. In a tightening labour market, employers might be compelled to offer pay scales that are higher than those under collective agreements, to promote employees to higher bands within collectively agreed pay scales, or simply to pay bonuses on top of agreed wages as a way to reward and retain employees. Given recent protracted declines in unemployment and increasing signs of labour shortages, this box reviews the role of the wage drift in recent developments in employee compensation.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
13 December 2018
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
8 November 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box analyses the impact of the Eurosystem's asset purchase programme (APP) on the growing market for 'green bonds'. It describes the composition of the Eurosystem's green bond holdings and assesses developments in prices and outstanding volumes of green bonds, before discussing the extent to which these may have been affected by the APP.
JEL Code
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
Q59 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Other
E59 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Other
8 November 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box reviews the characteristics of intangible assets and looks at a number of implications of their increasing importance. It finds that investment in intangible assets has increased in importance in the euro area, both in absolute terms and relative to tangible assets. Investment in intangibles enables productivity gains and can explain part of the gap between firms' investment in tangible assets and Tobin's Q. At the same time, the specific nature of intangible assets poses challenges as regards the measurement of activity, profits and capital stock, as well as making it less easy to use those assets as collateral.
JEL Code
D25 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
7 November 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of an ad hoc ECB survey of leading euro area companies looking at the impact that digitalisation has on the economy. Overall, companies regard digitalisation as having a positive impact on their sales and productivity, mainly because it provides better access to customers, facilitates the sharing of knowledge and makes production processes more efficient. They also see digitalisation increasing their flexibility when it comes to price setting. Most companies, particularly manufacturers, tend to regard digitalisation as reducing costs and increasing margins, but retailers are more likely to see input costs increasing and margins being squeezed. Finally, companies report that digitalisation is having a small negative impact on employment, while emphasising the importance of retraining and upskilling.
JEL Code
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
E00 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→General
6 November 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2018
Details
Abstract
The housing market has important macroeconomic and macroprudential implications for the euro area economy. In view of the duration of the ongoing upturn in euro area house prices and residential investment, which started at the end of 2013, analysing the state of the housing market is particularly informative. This article discusses the ongoing housing market upturn, from a chronological and fundamental perspective. It also explores a selected set of indicators that can potentially inform on the state of the housing market, elaborating on the demand and supply factors underpinning the current upturn, as well as their relative importance.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
5 November 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2018
Details
Abstract
Potential output is typically seen by economic analysts as the highest level of economic activity that can be sustained over the long term. Changes in potential output can be driven by factors such as labour supply, capital investment and technological innovation. Recent estimates by international institutions suggest that the euro area economy is currently operating close to its potential. The ongoing economic expansion appears to have largely absorbed the spare capacity created by the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis. At the same time, the estimated rate of potential output growth also appears to have recovered most of its pre-crisis momentum, underpinned mainly by an expansion of the labour force, a decline in trend unemployment and stronger productivity gains. Looking ahead, projections by international institutions suggest that actual euro area GDP growth will continue to outpace potential growth in the near term. Hence, supply constraints are likely to become increasingly binding going forward, which would be conducive to a gradual strengthening of euro area inflation.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
27 September 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB's monetary policy operations during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2018, which ran from 3 May to 19 June 2018 and from 20 June to 31 July 2018 respectively. Throughout this period the interest rates on the main refinancing operations (MROs), the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility remained unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and −0.40% respectively.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
27 September 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2018
Details
Abstract
As financial markets became progressively more integrated internationally over the past decades, economists wondered to what extent policymakers can isolate domestic financial conditions from external factors. This article reviews the terms of this debate and provides fresh evidence on the co-movement in capital flows and stock prices across a panel of 50 advanced and emerging economies. In particular, the article focuses on the relative importance of global risk and US monetary policy for the global financial cycle and touches upon the implications for the exchange rate regime. Global risk aversion emerges as a significant driver of capital flows and stock returns and its impact is amplified by capital account openness, but not necessarily by the exchange rate regime, which matters only for asset prices, not for capital flows. The quantitative relevance of US monetary policy and the US dollar exchange rate seems to be episodic. In particular, the correlation between US interest rates and capital flows throughout the crisis is positive, rather than negative as the theory would predict, indicating the need for further empirical analysis of the role of US monetary policy as the driver of the global financial cycle. The article also finds that financial market tensions have been typically synchronised between the euro area and the United States but that financial conditions in the two areas have often decoupled. Overall, this confirms that the effectiveness of the ECB’s monetary policy has not been impaired by the global financial cycle.
JEL Code
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
26 September 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2018
Details
Abstract
The global trading landscape has changed rapidly in recent months. Announcements of tariffs by the US Administration and retaliation by its trading partners have raised concerns about a possible 'trade war' and, potentially, a broader reversal of globalisation. On 1 March the US Administration announced tariffs of 25% on imports of steel and 10% on imports of aluminium from a wide range of countries. The first wave of tariffs relating to technology transfers on Chinese imports took effect on 6 July, followed by the announcement of retaliation in kind by the Chinese authorities. In response to the Chinese retaliation, the US Administration threatened to impose additional tariffs. In parallel, the EU and Canada implemented retaliatory measures against the US tariffs on steel and aluminium. Finally, the US Administration initiated a new investigation of imports of cars, trucks and auto parts (to determine their effects on national security) which could result in additional tariffs. Recently, however, there have also been some signs of a reduction in trade tensions resulting from a meeting between US and EU officials as well as the new NAFTA arrangements between the United States and Mexico.
JEL Code
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
25 September 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box looks at the evolution of the fiscal impact of the financial sector support measures taken in the ten years since the financial crisis struck. It takes stock of the fiscal costs of the crisis and the extent to which the recovery has helped to recoup them. This is done by focusing on the measures' impact on deficits and debt, and on the state guarantees granted to banks and other financial institutions. Steps have been taken since the crisis to improve the supervision of the financial sector, the orderly resolution of failing financial institutions, the sustainability of public finances and the resilience of sovereigns, for example by establishing bodies like the Single Supervisory Mechanism, the Single Resolution Mechanism and the European Fiscal Board.
JEL Code
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
H12 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Crisis Management
H62 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Deficit, Surplus
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
25 September 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2018
Details
Abstract
Private sector inflation expectations are a key component of a broad range of indicators that the ECB considers when determining the appropriate monetary policy stance for achieving its price stability objective. Inflation expectations can not only affect inflation itself through the wage and price-setting processes, but also serve as a useful cross-check on the ECB’s and the Eurosystem’s own projections. This article focuses on market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations, which are timely indicators derived from the prices of instruments that are traded in financial markets and linked to future inflation outcomes. It reviews recent developments in the information that can be extracted from different types of market-based indicator, starting from the period leading up to the ECB’s announcement of its expanded asset purchase programme (APP). The fall in market-based indicators of longer-term inflation expectations between 2014 and mid-2016 was consistent across major jurisdictions, possibly reflecting global concerns about weak aggregate demand and associated disinflationary pressures. Their subsequent recovery has been driven by a partial dissipation of these concerns and, in particular, a significant improvement in the euro area macroeconomic environment. The lion’s share of the movement in longer-term inflation expectations over the past few years has stemmed from the inflation risk component of these indicators, suggesting that the balance of risks to the inflation outlook has been one of the main drivers. Indeed, information extracted from the prices of inflation options implies that the risk-neutral probability of deflation increased noticeably in late 2014 and early 2015, before declining more recently.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
24 September 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2018
Details
Abstract
Oil prices affect private consumption through direct and indirect channels. An increase in oil prices affects households' purchasing power directly through higher prices for oil-based energy products (e.g. petrol, heating oil). In the euro area about one-third of the economy's total oil use is in the form of final consumption, i.e. the use by consumers of such products. The other two-thirds comes from oil being used in the production of non-energy goods. A rise in oil prices implies an increase in the production costs of these sectors. If these costs cannot be passed on to the final prices of these goods, there will be an indirect impact on households' purchasing power, since either wages or profits received from these sectors will be lower. Moreover, for advanced economies that produce oil (e.g. Canada, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States) the indirect effects through wages and profits from the oil-producing sector are even more important.
JEL Code
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
13 September 2018
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
22 August 2018
FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING - CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS
9 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
The degree of business cycle synchronisation, both across the euro area countries as well as between the euro area and the rest of the world, is a pertinent research question. Regarding the euro area, the endogenous optimal currency area (OCA) hypothesis suggests that the degree of business cycle synchronisation among the participating countries should increase over time as a result of deepening financial and trade integration. Individual countries should thus become less exposed to idiosyncratic shocks, facilitating the effectiveness of the single monetary policy. Against this background, this box presents and analyses several measures of business cycle synchronisation both within the euro area as well as from a global perspective.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
9 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
The euro area current account balance stood at the historically high level of 3.6% of GDP in the year up to the first quarter of 2018, slightly above the level of 3.5% of GDP recorded one year earlier. The slight increase in the current account surplus however masks significant decreases in the surplus on trade in goods (by 0.2 percentage point of GDP) as well as in the surplus on primary income (by 0.3 percentage point of GDP), which were slightly more than offset by an increase in the surplus on trade in services (by 0.5 percentage point of GDP).
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
9 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
The Chinese economy has recently been playing a key role in the global economic recovery. Recording growth rates of more than 6.5% over the past five years, China has contributed on average one-third of total global growth. It has also become one of the euro area's largest trading partners, accounting for almost 7% of total extra-euro area exports. While the world economy has benefited from China's economic strength and growing importance, a downturn would also have large repercussions for global activity. In fact, imbalances in China have been identified as a key external downside risk to the euro area and world economy. One catalyst for such a risk materialising could be the housing market.
JEL Code
C01 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→General→Econometrics
E00 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→General
9 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
This article examines the evolution of the ECB’s accountability practices during the financial crisis. After describing the challenges stemming from the crisis and changes resulting from the conferral of new supervisory tasks on the ECB, it provides evidence on how the strengthening of the ECB’s accountability has taken shape in the context of its relationship with the European Parliament in line with the latter’s key role as provided for in the Treaties. The ECB and the European Parliament, building on the accountability framework enshrined in primary law, have increased the frequency of their interactions, made innovations regarding the format and sharpened the focus of their exchanges, allowing increased scrutiny of the ECB’s policies. This has provided the ECB with more opportunities to explain its decisions and demonstrate that it is acting in accordance with its democratic mandate, which is a fundamental pillar of its legitimacy.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
9 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
Loans to households for house purchase appear to have grown at a moderate rate in recent years, despite very favourable financing conditions, the recovery in economic activity and dynamic housing markets. The annual growth rate of adjusted loans to households for house purchase was 2.8% in the first quarter of 2018, having increased gradually from slightly above 0% in 2014. However, when assessing loan developments, it should be noted that loan growth figures are usually reported in net terms, i.e. newly originated loans and the repayments of previously granted loans are considered together because statistics on balance sheet items are derived from stock figures. Given the long-term nature of mortgage contracts, loan repayments have a long-lasting impact on net figures, especially after a boom, and thus obfuscate the prevailing lending dynamics. Against this background, this box presents the results of a simulated portfolio approach which decomposes net lending flows into loan origination and the repayments of previously granted outstanding loans. Examining these two components separately provides a better view of current loan developments.
JEL Code
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
8 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
This article documents the key role that private consumption has played in recent output growth (2013-18), and asks how long the current growth in consumption can continue and whether it is self-sustaining. To that end, this article tries to identify the relative importance of different factors driving consumption, such as the recovery in the labour market, accommodative monetary policy, the 2014-15 drop in oil prices, the increase in asset prices, the easing of credit conditions and deleveraging. As the fall in consumption from 2008 to 2013 was very heterogeneous across countries, this article also sheds light on the extent to which the current expansion has actually led to a net increase in consumption over the past decade. This is relevant because private consumption is also a prime indicator of the economic well-being of households. While the growth of consumption has been low compared with previous expansions, since 2013 it has exceeded initial expectations. It has been driven mainly by the recovery in the labour market, even though unemployment in some countries and for some groups of workers remains higher than before 2008. Looking forward, as labour markets continue to improve, private consumption should expand further in all countries and for all groups of workers. Through its impact on the labour market, the ECB’s accommodative monetary policy is not only contributing to the expansion of private consumption, but also to a decrease in inequality. At the same time, there is little evidence that low interest rates have led to generalised increases in household indebtedness, supporting the sustainability of the overall economic expansion.
JEL Code
D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
7 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
In current forecasts and projections, a pick-up in labour costs is considered an important precondition for a sustained increase in underlying inflation. However, the signals provided by different labour cost indicators have been mixed for some time. While wage growth as measured by compensation per employee or by compensation per hour worked has clearly strengthened over the past two years, unit labour cost growth, i.e. wage growth adjusted for productivity growth, has remained rather flat over the same period. This begs the question: which labour cost indicators provide the relevant signal for the pass-through to, and the outlook for, underlying inflation? This box tries to shed some light on this issue by analysing the transmission of two different types of macroeconomic impulse, namely certain kinds of supply and demand shock, in the context of the New Area-Wide Model, and by comparing the results with the patterns of development observed in the recent past.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
7 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
The overnight money market plays an important role in the implementation and transmission of monetary policy in the euro area. Money market fragmentation is a sign of impairment in the transmission mechanism which merits the close monitoring of a set of suitable indicators. This article discusses concepts and measurement of fragmentation and proposes a new measure of fragmentation from a monetary policy transmission perspective.
JEL Code
D53 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Financial Markets
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
6 August 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2018
Details
Abstract
Within the EU governance framework for the coordination of economic policies, the country-specific recommendations (CSRs) represent an integral part of the annual European Semester process. They provide guidance to individual EU Member States on how to address structural reform needs and macroeconomic imbalances in the following 12-18 months. CSRs are the instrument through which EU national economic policies are treated as a matter of common concern and coordinated within the Council of the European Union in accordance with Article 121 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. They therefore constitute a cornerstone of the EU's macroeconomic imbalance procedure (MIP), whose aim is to prevent, detect and correct macroeconomic imbalances in individual countries, thereby containing risks to the smooth functioning of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Their timely and proper implementation is critical to reducing vulnerabilities and strengthening the economic resilience of the euro area and the EU as a whole, ultimately leading to higher growth potential in the long term. Against the background of the 2018 CSRs received by 27 EU Member States (i.e. all excluding Greece ), this box examines the policy recommendations addressed to 18 euro area countries, with the exception of those that pertain strictly to the implementation of the EU's Stability and Growth Pact.
JEL Code
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
28 June 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2018
Details
Abstract
On 23 May the European Commission issued its 2018 European Semester Spring Package of policy recommendations for Member States. The package includes country-specific recommendations (CSRs) for economic and fiscal policies for all EU Member States. It also covers recommendations regarding the implementation of the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) for a number of countries. With regard to fiscal policies, the recommendations focus in particular on Member States' compliance with the SGP on the basis of the Commission's 2018 spring forecast and the Commission's assessment of countries' policy plans as reflected in the updates of the stability and convergence programmes released in April. This year's European Semester exercise is important particularly with a view to avoiding any repetition of mistakes made prior to the financial crisis when sufficient fiscal buffers were not built up in economic good times and the ensuing recession was aggravated by the sudden necessity of pro-cyclical fiscal tightening. Against this background, this box examines the fiscal policy recommendations that are addressed to 18 euro area countries (i.e. excluding Greece).
JEL Code
H60 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→General
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
28 June 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2018
Details
Abstract
Following very strong growth rates in 2017, quarterly real GDP growth in the euro area moderated to 0.4% in the first quarter of 2018. The slowdown in growth at the start of the year, which appears to reflect temporary factors as well as more lasting cyclical factors, was in line with developments in economic indicators, notably survey data. Both the composite output Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) declined throughout the first quarter of 2018. However, it is important to note that, like output growth, these indicators fell back from exceptionally high levels.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
28 June 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2018
Details
Abstract
Equity capital is among the main sources of funding for euro area non-financial corporations (NFCs), making it an important factor in the transmission of monetary policy. From a central bank perspective, improving the measurement and understanding of the cost of equity is therefore essential. Unlike the cost of debt, which has declined substantially in recent years, the cost of equity has remained relatively stable at elevated levels. Results from the analysis performed in this article suggest that a persistently high “equity risk premium” (ERP) has been the key factor underpinning the high cost of equity for euro area NFCs. In fact, since the start of the global financial crisis, increases in the ERP have largely offset the fall in the yield of risk-free assets. This article argues that the widely used workhorse model to derive the cost of equity and the ERP, namely the three-stage dividend discount model, can be improved upon. In particular, incorporating short-term earnings expectations, discounting payouts to investors with a discount factor with appropriate maturity, and considering share buy-backs all yield beneficial refinements. This in turn would strengthen the theory and basis of the model and improve the robustness of its estimates. Most notably, share buy-back activity seems to matter, specifically for the level of the ERP. Notwithstanding such improvements in the modelling approach, estimating the ERP, particularly its level, remains subject to considerable uncertainty. Ultimately, such uncertainty advocates the use of a variety of models and survey estimates, as well as a focus on the dynamics, rather than on the level, of the ERP. From an applied perspective, the article demonstrates that cost of equity modelling can be used to disentangle the different drivers of changes in equity prices. This is helpful from a monetary policy perspective, as changes in equity prices can contain important information about the economic outlook and warrant monitoring for financial stability purposes. Moreover, the article shows that adding an international perspective to the analysis of the ERP for the overall market may provide valuable insights for policymakers. For instance, the greater reliance on share buy-backs among companies in the United States than those in the euro area appears to be behind some of the recent steeper decline in the ERP in the United States when compared with the ERP in the euro area.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G35 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Payout Policy
28 June 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB's monetary policy operations during the first and second reserve maintenance periods of 2018, which ran from 31 January to 13 March 2018 and from 14 March to 2 May 2018 respectively. During this period the interest rates on the main refinancing operations (MROs), the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility remained unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and 0.40% respectively.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
27 June 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box presents the main projection results of the 2018 Ageing Report for euro area countries. The 2018 Ageing Report, published on 25 May 2018, is the latest of the reports prepared every three years by the Ageing Working Group of the Economic Policy Committee. The report provides long-term projections of total public age-related costs and their components, which comprise pensions, health care, long-term care, education expenditure and unemployment benefits, for all EU countries over the period 2016 70. These projections are, of course, dependent on the underlying assumptions.
JEL Code
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
27 June 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2018
Details
Abstract
Exchange rate developments can play an important role in shaping the outlook for HICP inflation. As a change in the exchange rate can affect consumer prices with considerable delays and as the impact can depend on the economic situation at the time, assessing the exchange rate pass-through requires constant monitoring. Between April 2017 and May 2018, the exchange rate of the euro appreciated by about 8% in nominal effective terms and by about 10% against the US dollar. This box briefly recalls how exchange rate changes are transmitted to consumer prices in the euro area. The box also looks at indicators at different stages of the pricing chain to gauge the degree of the pass-through at the current juncture. The focus is on the monitoring of the pass-through to exchange rate-sensitive components of the HICP excluding energy and food.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
25 June 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2018
Details
Abstract
Headline inflation can be noisy, blurring the signal on the medium-term inflationary pressure relevant for monetary policy. To help distinguish signal from noise in the data, central banks monitor measures of underlying inflation. As there are many ways of measuring underlying inflation, it is important to understand the properties of the various indicators and what factors may account for any divergence between them. This article describes in detail the measures of underlying inflation typically used at the ECB and evaluates them against a set of empirical criteria. Our results suggest that no one measure of underlying inflation is superior in all situations as the performance of the indicators varies over time. In practice, each indicator comes with merits and shortcomings, which calls for monitoring the full range of measures of underlying inflation.
JEL Code
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
14 June 2018
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
10 May 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2018
Details
Abstract
This article establishes stylised facts about convergence and analyses the sources of economic growth in central, eastern and south-eastern European (CESEE) economies within and outside the European Union (EU).22 It also compares the performance across countries and identifies the challenges that these economies face on the way to further advancing convergence. Although all CESEE economies have converged towards the most advanced EU economies since 2000, progress has been heterogeneous. While some countries have experienced fast economic growth and a speedy catching-up, for others the catching-up process has been rather slow. Economic convergence has been much faster in the CESEE countries that became members of the EU (including those which later joined the euro area) than in the Western Balkan countries that are currently EU candidates or potential candidates. Convergence was particularly rapid before the global financial crisis, but slowed down thereafter. The article identifies several factors that are common to the most successful countries in the region in terms of the pace of convergence since 2000. These include (inter alia) improvements in institutional quality, external competitiveness and innovation, increases in trade openness, high or improving levels of human capital, and relatively high investment rates. Looking ahead, accelerating and sustaining convergence in the region will require further efforts to enhance institutional quality and innovation, reinvigorate investment, and address the adverse impact of population ageing. For EU candidates and potential candidates, EU accession prospects might constitute an anchor for reform momentum – in particular, but not exclusively, in the key area of enhancing institutional quality – and thus support the long-term growth prospects and real convergence of these countries.
JEL Code
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
10 May 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2018
Details
Abstract
This article discusses the concept of risk sharing, which generally refers to the notion that economic agents, such as households and firms, attempt to insure their consumption streams against fluctuations in the business cycle of their country, i.e. they try to “smooth out” changes in their consumption resulting from economic shocks. The article then considers what proportion of an economic shock in the euro area can be smoothed, and compares this with the situation in the United States. While a comparison of the degree of risk sharing between the euro area and the United States needs to be seen against the background of different institutional and political architectures, it nevertheless offers potentially interesting economic insights. The article shows that, while in the euro area around 80% of a shock to GDP growth in a given country remained unsmoothed over the period 1999-2016, thus resulting in sizeable differences in consumption growth across countries, in the United States at most 40% of a shock to state-specific GDP was unsmoothed over the same period. The article also evaluates the relative importance of the main risk sharing channels, i.e. the credit, capital and fiscal channels, as well as the role of European institutions. It shows that, in the euro area, risk sharing takes place mainly via the capital channel, i.e. through cross-border holdings of financial assets. Finally, the article puts the empirical results into the perspective of the ongoing debate on enhancing the institutional architecture of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). It calls for euro area countries to make their economies, banking sectors and public finances less vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks. The article explains how efficient and integrated financial markets are a core prerequisite for effective private risk sharing in the euro area. It also shows how the euro area would benefit from a central fiscal stabilisation function to support national economic stabilisers in the presence of large economic shocks and thereby make EMU more resilient.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
10 May 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2018
Details
Abstract
The euro area's international investment position (i.i.p.) improved further in 2017. The recent improvement in the euro area's net i.i.p. was mainly driven by net financial transactions – reflecting the euro area’s current account surplus – and developments in asset prices. As regards financial instruments, the improvement in the euro area's net i.i.p. was mainly due to a shift in portfolio debt securities from a net liability to a net asset position.
JEL Code
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
10 May 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box aims to illustrate the difficulties in measuring slack in the euro area economy and the high uncertainty surrounding the estimates. A model-based estimate illustrates the point by suggesting an output gap that is close to zero, although surrounded by a high degree of uncertainty. Recent labour supply shocks are likely to be supporting the growth of both potential and actual output. The broad measure of labour underutilisation suggests that slack was larger during the financial crisis and over the recovery than indicated by the headline unemployment rate.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J20 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→General
J64 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
8 May 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2018
Details
Abstract
This article reviews the impact of the ECB’s corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP) on corporate bond markets and the financing of euro area non-financial corporations (NFCs). It finds that the CSPP has led to a significant easing in financing conditions for euro area NFCs, including declines in corporate bond spreads, improved supply conditions in the corporate bond primary market and increased bank lending to NFCs that do not have access to bond-based financing. The operational set-up of the CSPP, in particular its flexibility and adaptability, minimises any impact that could be detrimental to the functioning of the corporate bond market.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
7 May 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2018
Details
Abstract
Public support for globalisation has declined over the past decade and trade reforms have slowed. Moreover, in recent weeks the risk of rising trade tensions has surged on the back of new sets of tariffs announced by the US administration. This box discusses the possible implications of rising trade tensions for the global economy.
JEL Code
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
22 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
This article reviews the existing literature on financial constraints and their effect on investment. It also provides new evidence on this issue using a large sample of firms from 12 European countries for the period 2014-17. The data come from the ECB and European Commission survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), which focuses specifically on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The available evidence suggests that credit constraints play a crucial role in the investment decisions of non-financial corporations.
JEL Code
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
22 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
Timely and reliable statistics are essential for economic analysis. This box reviews and assesses the reliability of Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate of quarterly GDP growth for the euro area, which was introduced at the beginning of 2016. It was a welcome development in terms of the continuous efforts to improve Europe’s statistical landscape given that the euro area’s single monetary policy is dependent on timely, reliable and comparable indicators that accurately reflect economic developments. To further support a more thorough analysis of macroeconomic developments at euro area level few challenges remain and some improvements are desirable such as the development of relevant euro area and country-level statistics soon after the end of the reference quarter. It is also important to enhance the quality of the source data that are used as inputs for preliminary flash estimates (e.g. short-term statistics on services). These improvements will ultimately increase the reliability of preliminary flash estimates and make them more useful, thereby facilitating more detailed economic analysis.
JEL Code
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
22 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box assesses to what extent changes in seasonality and idiosyncratic price changes (defined as outliers) can explain recent short-term volatility in the profile of euro area HICP inflation excluding food and energy.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
22 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
The box looks at the fiscal policy stance in the euro area during past expansionary periods and the extent to which good economic times have been used to build fiscal buffers. It argues that the midly countercyclical or broadly netrual stance that prevailed during the expansionary phase before the financial crisis was not sufficient to built adequate buffers fo the following recession.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H60 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→General
22 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
The European Commission’s 2018 assessment of macroeconomic imbalances and progress on reforms provides confirmation that greater efforts are needed in many EU Member States in order to advance economic growth and resilience on a more sustainable basis.
JEL Code
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
22 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB's monetary policy operations during the seventh and eighth reserve maintenance periods of 2018, which ran from 1 November to 19 December 2017 and from 20 December 2017 to 30 January 2018 respectively. During this period, the interest rates on the main refinancing operations (MROs), the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility remained unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
22 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
In the euro area, there has been an increasing reliance on part-time work. The share of part-time workers is now about 22% of total employment, and part-time work has accounted for about one quarter of net employment growth over the euro area labour market recovery (starting in the second quarter of 2013). This box examines the latest developments and the characteristics of the two main groups of part-time workers: underemployed and non-underemployed part-time workers.
JEL Code
J01 : Labor and Demographic Economics→General→Labor Economics: General
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
21 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
Oil prices increased from around USD 45 per barrel at end-June 2017 to about USD 65 per barrel at the beginning of March 2018. The main drivers of this increase were stronger than expected growth in global demand, the strategy adopted by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC countries to adjust their production – partly offset by rising US production – and geopolitical events. This box analyses these factors, based on a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, and assesses whether they are likely to persist.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
F53 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Agreements and Observance, International Organizations
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
20 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
This article examines the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of population ageing in the euro area and looks at how pension reforms can help to address these challenges. According to Eurostat’s latest projections, population ageing is set to continue and even intensify in the euro area over the next few decades. This ongoing process, which stems from increases in life expectancy and low fertility rates, is widely expected to lead to a decline in the labour supply and productivity losses, as well as behavioural changes, and is likely to have an adverse effect on potential growth. Moreover, by causing increases in precautionary savings, ageing can be expected to have a dampening impact on interest rates over an extended period of time. Population ageing also entails changes in relative prices, mainly owing to shifts in demand, with demand for services rising. Furthermore, euro area countries are also projected to experience further upward pressure on public spending on pensions, health care and long-term care as their populations age. Although many euro area countries implemented pension reforms following the sovereign debt crisis, further reforms appear to be necessary in order to ensure fiscal sustainability in the long run. In this respect, measures that increase the retirement age can be expected to dampen the adverse macroeconomic effects of ageing, as they will have a favourable impact on the labour supply and domestic consumption. In contrast, increasing the contribution rate or reducing the benefit ratio could have less favourable macroeconomic implications.
JEL Code
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J14 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of the Elderly, Economics of the Handicapped, Non-Labor Market Discrimination
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
19 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
Details
Abstract
The liquidity of euro area sovereign bond markets is important for the transmission of the ECB’s monetary policy. In particular, a high degree of liquidity fosters the link between the ECB’s monetary policy decisions, the yield curve, financial asset prices in general, and the overall cost and flow of finance in the economy. The liquidity of sovereign bond markets needs to be monitored more closely since the implementation of the ECB’s public sector purchase programme (PSPP), under which a significant share of outstanding euro area sovereign bonds has been bought. Against this background, this box presents some of the market liquidity indicators that the ECB monitors regularly. Overall, the indicators suggest that liquidity conditions in sovereign bond markets have not deteriorated since the start of the PSPP (on 9 March 2015).
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
8 February 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2018
Details
Abstract
House price increases over the past few years may have implications for housing affordability. This box discusses some selected indicators of affordability both at the macro and micro level, and investigate the effects for renters, owner and potential buyers.
JEL Code
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
7 February 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2018
Details
Abstract
This article examines the main factors behind the recent changes in euro area labour supply and how they have influenced employment developments. It finds that the increasing supply from older people and women, as well as immigration, have had a significant influence on employment growth during the economic recovery. Both migration and the numbers of older people and women in or seeking work have been driven by long-term trends and structural changes, while migration has also been affected by several cyclical factors. In the medium to longer term, labour supply is expected to decline as the population ages. This calls for policies to support labour force and employment growth, for example by helping the long-term unemployed, migrants and other groups whose participation rates remain low, to enter or return to the labour market, or find jobs that better match their skills.
JEL Code
J01 : Labor and Demographic Economics→General→Labor Economics: General
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
J61 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Geographic Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers
6 February 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2018
Details
Abstract
Growth in the consumption of durable goods has been very strong in recent years. During the financial crisis, durable goods consumption contracted sharply, although the car scrappage schemes in several euro area countries provided some relief by encouraging purchases of new cars (e.g. in 2009). Since 2013, durable goods consumption has again grown vigorously, pushing up growth in overall consumption. The recovery observed in real disposable incomes and the easing of financing conditions have both boosted households’ appetite for durable goods, particularly in those euro area countries that were more affected by the financial crisis.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
5 February 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2018
Details
Abstract
Following the passing of legislation on the US tax reform towards the end of last year, this box summarises its main features and assesses the channels via which the reform may affect the US macroeconomy. It also discusses possible spillovers and implications from a European perspective.
JEL Code
H25 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Business Taxes and Subsidies
H87 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→International Fiscal Issues, International Public Goods
28 December 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2017
28 December 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2017
28 December 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2017
28 December 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2017
22 December 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2017
21 December 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2017
20 December 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2017
14 December 2017
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
9 November 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2017
9 November 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2017
9 November 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2017
9 November 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2017
21 September 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2017
21 September 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 06, 2017
21 September 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 06, 2017
19 September 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 06, 2017
19 September 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2017
18 September 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 06, 2017
18 September 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 06, 2017
7 September 2017
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
3 August 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 05, 2017
3 August 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 05, 2017
3 August 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 05, 2017
2 August 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 05, 2017
1 August 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 05, 2017
31 July 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 05, 2017
22 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2017
22 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2017
22 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2017
22 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 04, 2017
22 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2017
21 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2017
21 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2017
20 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2017
19 June 2017
OTHER PUBLICATION
19 June 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2017
8 June 2017
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
11 May 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2017
11 May 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2017
11 May 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2017
10 May 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2017
10 May 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2017
9 May 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2017
8 May 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2017
23 March 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2017
23 March 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2017
23 March 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2017
22 March 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2017
21 March 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2017
20 March 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2017
20 March 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2017
9 March 2017
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
2 February 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2017
2 February 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2017
2 February 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2017
2 February 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2017
2 February 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2017
30 January 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2017
22 December 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2016
22 December 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2016
22 December 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2016
22 December 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2016
22 December 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2016
20 December 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2016
19 December 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2016
8 December 2016
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
22 December 2016
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
3 November 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2016
3 November 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2016
2 November 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2016
2 November 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2016
31 October 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2016
22 September 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2016
22 September 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2016
22 September 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2016
21 September 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2016
21 September 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2016
20 September 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2016
8 September 2016
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
4 August 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2016
4 August 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2016
4 August 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2016
3 August 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2016
3 August 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2016
2 August 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2016
2 August 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2016
1 August 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2016
15 July 2016
OTHER PUBLICATION
16 June 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2016
16 June 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2016
16 June 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2016
16 June 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2016
15 June 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2016
14 June 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2016
13 June 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2016
2 June 2016
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
5 May 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2016
5 May 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2016
5 May 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2016
4 May 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2016
3 May 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2016
2 May 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2016
24 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
24 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
24 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
24 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
24 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
24 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
24 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
23 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
22 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
21 March 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2016
10 March 2016
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
4 February 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2016
4 February 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2016
2 February 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2016
1 February 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2016
12 January 2016
OTHER PUBLICATION
17 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
17 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
17 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
17 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
17 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
16 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
16 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
14 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
14 December 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2015
3 December 2015
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
5 November 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2015
5 November 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2015
5 November 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2015
5 November 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2015
5 November 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2015
3 November 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2015
2 November 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2015
17 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
17 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
17 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
17 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
17 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
16 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
16 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
15 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
15 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
14 September 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2015
3 September 2015
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
30 July 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2015
30 July 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2015
30 July 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2015
29 July 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2015
28 July 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2015
27 July 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2015
24 July 2015
OTHER PUBLICATION
7 July 2015
OTHER PUBLICATION
18 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
18 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
18 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
18 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
18 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
18 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
18 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
18 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
17 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
16 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
15 June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2015
3 June 2015
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
30 April 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2015
30 April 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2015
30 April 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2015
29 April 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2015
28 April 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2015
19 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
19 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
19 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
19 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
19 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
19 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
17 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
17 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
16 March 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2015
5 March 2015
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
5 February 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2015
4 February 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2015
11 December 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2014
11 December 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2014
11 December 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2014
11 December 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2014
11 December 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2014
11 December 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2014
11 December 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2014
4 December 2014
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
13 November 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2014
31 October 2014
FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING - CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS
9 October 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2014
9 October 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2014
9 October 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2014
9 October 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2014
9 October 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2014
4 September 2014
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
1 September 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2014
1 September 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2014
1 September 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2014
1 September 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2014
1 September 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2014
1 September 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2014
1 September 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2014
1 September 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2014
14 August 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2014
14 August 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2014
14 August 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2014
14 August 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2014
14 August 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2014
14 August 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2014
14 August 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2014
10 July 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2014
10 July 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2014
10 July 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2014
10 July 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2014
10 July 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2014
10 July 2014
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2014
10 July 2014
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12 February 2009
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Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2009
12 February 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2009
12 February 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2009
12 February 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2009
2 February 2009
EURO MONEY MARKET
22 January 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2009
22 January 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2009
22 January 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2009
22 January 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2009
22 January 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2009
11 December 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2008
11 December 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2008
11 December 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2008
11 December 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2008
11 December 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2008
11 December 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2008
11 December 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2008
11 December 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2008
11 December 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2008
11 December 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2008
11 December 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2008
4 December 2008
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
13 November 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2008
13 November 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2008
13 November 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2008
13 November 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2008
13 November 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2008
13 November 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2008
13 November 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2008
13 November 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2008
12 November 2008
OTHER PUBLICATION
9 October 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2008
9 October 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2008
9 October 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2008
9 October 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2008
26 September 2008
OTHER PUBLICATION
11 September 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2008
11 September 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2008
11 September 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2008
11 September 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2008
11 September 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2008
11 September 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2008
11 September 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2008
11 September 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2008
11 September 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2008
11 September 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2008
11 September 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2008
4 September 2008
OTHER PUBLICATION
4 September 2008
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
14 August 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2008
14 August 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2008
14 August 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2008
14 August 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2008
14 August 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2008
14 August 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2008
14 August 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2008
14 August 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2008
14 August 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2008
10 July 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2008
10 July 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2008
10 July 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2008
10 July 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2008
10 July 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2008
10 July 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2008
10 July 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2008
10 July 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2008
25 June 2008
OTHER PUBLICATION
20 June 2008
OTHER PUBLICATION
5 June 2008
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
3 June 2008
OTHER PUBLICATION
1 June 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2008
1 June 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2008
1 June 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2008
1 June 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2008
1 June 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2008
1 June 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2008
1 June 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2008
1 June 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2008
1 June 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2008
1 June 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2008
1 June 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2008
15 May 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2008
15 May 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2008
15 May 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2008
15 May 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2008
15 May 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2008
15 May 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2008
15 May 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2008
15 May 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2008
15 May 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2008
17 April 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2008
17 April 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2008
17 April 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2008
17 April 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2008
17 April 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2008
17 April 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2008
13 March 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2008
13 March 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2008
13 March 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2008
13 March 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2008
13 March 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2008
13 March 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2008
13 March 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2008
13 March 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2008
13 March 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2008
13 March 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2008
6 March 2008
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
25 February 2008
OTHER PUBLICATION
14 February 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2008
14 February 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2008
14 February 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2008
14 February 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2008
14 February 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2008
14 February 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2008
14 February 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2008
14 February 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2008
31 January 2008
OTHER PUBLICATION
17 January 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2008
17 January 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2008
17 January 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2008
17 January 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2008
17 January 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2008
17 January 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2008
17 January 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2008
17 January 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2008
17 January 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2008
13 December 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2007
13 December 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2007
13 December 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2007
13 December 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2007
13 December 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2007
13 December 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2007
13 December 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2007
13 December 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2007
13 December 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2007
13 December 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2007
6 December 2007
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
19 November 2007
OTHER PUBLICATION
15 November 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2007
15 November 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2007
15 November 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2007
15 November 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2007
15 November 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2007
15 November 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2007
15 November 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2007
11 October 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2007
11 October 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2007
11 October 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2007
11 October 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2007
11 October 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2007
11 October 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2007
11 October 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2007
11 October 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2007
13 September 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2007
13 September 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2007
13 September 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2007
13 September 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2007
13 September 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2007
13 September 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2007
13 September 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2007
13 September 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2007
13 September 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2007
13 September 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2007
6 September 2007
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
9 August 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2007
9 August 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2007
9 August 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2007
9 August 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2007
9 August 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2007
9 August 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2007
12 July 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2007
12 July 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2007
12 July 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2007
12 July 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2007
12 July 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2007
26 June 2007
OTHER PUBLICATION
15 June 2007
OTHER PUBLICATION
14 June 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2007
14 June 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2007
14 June 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2007
14 June 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2007
14 June 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2007
14 June 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2007
14 June 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2007
14 June 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2007
14 June 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2007
14 June 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2007
14 June 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2007
14 June 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2007
14 June 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2007
11 June 2007
OTHER PUBLICATION
6 June 2007
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
17 May 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2007
17 May 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2007
17 May 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2007
17 May 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2007
1 May 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2007
1 May 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2007
1 May 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2007
1 May 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2007
1 May 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2007
1 May 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2007
19 April 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2007
19 April 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2007
19 April 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2007
19 April 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2007
19 April 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2007
19 April 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2007
19 April 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2007
19 April 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2007
19 April 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2007
19 April 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2007
19 April 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2007
15 March 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2007
15 March 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2007
15 March 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2007
15 March 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2007
15 March 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2007
15 March 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2007
15 March 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2007
15 March 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2007
8 March 2007
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
15 February 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2007
15 February 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2007
15 February 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2007
15 February 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2007
15 February 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2007
15 February 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2007
15 February 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2007
13 February 2007
EURO MONEY MARKET
18 January 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2007
18 January 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2007
18 January 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2007
18 January 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2007
18 January 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2007
18 January 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2007
18 January 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2007
18 January 2007
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2007
14 December 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2006
14 December 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2006
14 December 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2006
14 December 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2006
14 December 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2006
14 December 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2006
14 December 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2006
14 December 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2006
14 December 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2006
14 December 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2006
7 December 2006
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
9 November 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2006
9 November 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2006
9 November 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2006
9 November 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2006
9 November 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2006
9 November 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2006
9 November 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2006
9 November 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2006
9 November 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2006
9 November 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2006
9 November 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2006
12 October 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2006
12 October 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2006
12 October 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2006
12 October 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2006
15 September 2006
OTHER PUBLICATION
7 September 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2006
7 September 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2006
7 September 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2006
7 September 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2006
7 September 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2006
7 September 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2006
31 August 2006
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
10 August 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2006
10 August 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2006
10 August 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2006
10 August 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2006
10 August 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2006
10 August 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2006
10 August 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2006
13 July 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2006
13 July 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2006
13 July 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2006
13 July 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2006
13 July 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2006
13 July 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2006
13 July 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2006
15 June 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2006
15 June 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2006
15 June 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2006
15 June 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2006
15 June 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2006
15 June 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2006
15 June 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2006
15 June 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2006
15 June 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2006
15 June 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2006
15 June 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2006
8 June 2006
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
11 May 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2006
11 May 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2006
11 May 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2006
11 May 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2006
11 May 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2006
11 May 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2006
12 April 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2006
12 April 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2006
12 April 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2006
12 April 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2006
12 April 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2006
12 April 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2006
12 April 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2006
12 April 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2006
12 April 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2006
9 March 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2006
9 March 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2006
9 March 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2006
9 March 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2006
9 March 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2006
9 March 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2006
9 March 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2006
9 March 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2006
9 March 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2006
2 March 2006
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
9 February 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2006
9 February 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2006
9 February 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2006
9 February 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2006
9 February 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2006
9 February 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2006
20 January 2006
OTHER PUBLICATION
19 January 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2006
19 January 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2006
19 January 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2006
19 January 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2006
19 January 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2006
19 January 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2006
27 December 2005
OTHER PUBLICATION
8 December 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2005
8 December 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2005
8 December 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2005
8 December 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2005
8 December 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2005
8 December 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2005
8 December 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2005
8 December 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2005
8 December 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2005
1 December 2005
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
10 November 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2005
10 November 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2005
10 November 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2005
10 November 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2005
10 November 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2005
10 November 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2005
10 November 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2005
10 November 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2005
13 October 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2005
13 October 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2005
13 October 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2005
13 October 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2005
13 October 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2005
13 October 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2005
13 October 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2005
13 October 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2005
8 September 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2005
8 September 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2005
8 September 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2005
8 September 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2005
8 September 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2005
8 September 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2005
8 September 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2005
8 September 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2005
1 September 2005
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
11 August 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2005
11 August 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2005
11 August 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2005
11 August 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2005
11 August 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2005
11 August 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2005
11 August 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2005
11 August 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2005
14 July 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2005
14 July 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2005
14 July 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2005
14 July 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2005
14 July 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2005
14 July 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2005
14 July 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2005
9 June 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2005
9 June 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2005
9 June 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2005
9 June 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2005
9 June 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2005
9 June 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2005
9 June 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2005
9 June 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2005
9 June 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2005
9 June 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2005
2 June 2005
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
12 May 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2005
12 May 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2005
12 May 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2005
12 May 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2005
12 May 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2005
12 May 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2005
12 May 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2005
12 May 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2005
12 May 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2005
11 May 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2005
3 May 2005
OTHER PUBLICATION
14 April 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2005
14 April 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2005
14 April 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2005
14 April 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2005
14 April 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2005
10 March 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2005
10 March 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2005
10 March 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2005
10 March 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2005
10 March 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2005
10 March 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2005
10 March 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2005
10 March 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2005
10 March 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2005
10 March 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2005
3 March 2005
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
21 February 2005
OTHER PUBLICATION
10 February 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2005
10 February 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2005
10 February 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2005
10 February 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2005
10 February 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2005
10 February 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2005
20 January 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2005
20 January 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2005
20 January 2005
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2005
9 December 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2004
9 December 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2004
9 December 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2004
9 December 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2004
9 December 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2004
9 December 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2004
9 December 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2004
9 December 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2004
9 December 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2004
9 December 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2004
9 December 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2004
2 December 2004
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
11 November 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2004
11 November 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2004
11 November 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2004
11 November 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2004
11 November 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2004
11 November 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2004
11 November 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2004
14 October 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2004
14 October 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2004
14 October 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2004
9 September 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2004
9 September 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2004
9 September 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2004
9 September 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2004
9 September 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2004
9 September 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2004
9 September 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2004
9 September 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2004
9 September 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2004
9 September 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2004
2 September 2004
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
12 August 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2004
12 August 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2004
12 August 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2004
12 August 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2004
12 August 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2004
12 August 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2004
8 July 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2004
8 July 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2004
8 July 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2004
8 July 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2004
8 July 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2004
8 July 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2004
8 July 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2004
10 June 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2004
10 June 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2004
10 June 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2004
10 June 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2004
10 June 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2004
10 June 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2004
10 June 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2004
10 June 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2004
3 June 2004
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
13 May 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2004
13 May 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2004
13 May 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2004
13 May 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2004
13 May 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2004
13 May 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2004
13 May 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2004
13 May 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2004
13 April 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2004
13 April 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2004
13 April 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2004
13 April 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2004
13 April 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2004
11 March 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2004
11 March 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2004
11 March 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2004
11 March 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2004
12 February 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2004
12 February 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2004
12 February 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2004
12 February 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2004
12 February 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2004
6 February 2004
OTHER PUBLICATION
30 January 2004
OTHER PUBLICATION
22 January 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2004
22 January 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2004
22 January 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2004
22 January 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2004
22 January 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2004
22 January 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2004
20 January 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2005
18 December 2003
OTHER PUBLICATION
11 December 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2003
11 December 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2003
11 December 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2003
11 December 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2003
11 December 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2003
11 December 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2003
11 December 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2003
11 December 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2003
11 December 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2003
11 December 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2003
11 December 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2003
18 November 2003
OTHER PUBLICATION
13 November 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2003
13 November 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2003
13 November 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2003
13 November 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2003
13 November 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2003
13 November 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2003
13 November 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2003
13 November 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2003
9 October 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2003
9 October 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2003
9 October 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2003
9 October 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2003
9 October 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2003
30 September 2003
OTHER PUBLICATION
11 September 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2003
11 September 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2003
11 September 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2003
11 September 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2003
11 September 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2003
11 September 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2003
11 September 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2003
30 August 2003
OTHER PUBLICATION
27 August 2003
OTHER PUBLICATION
7 August 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2003
7 August 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2003
7 August 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2003
7 August 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2003
7 August 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2003
7 August 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2003
17 July 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2003
17 July 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2003
17 July 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2003
17 July 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2003
17 July 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2003
17 July 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2003
2 July 2003
OTHER PUBLICATION
12 June 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2003
12 June 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2003
12 June 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2003
12 June 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2003
12 June 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2003
12 June 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2003
12 June 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2003
12 June 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2003
12 June 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2003
12 June 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2003
12 June 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2003
12 June 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2003
2 June 2003
OTHER PUBLICATION
15 May 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2003
15 May 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2003
15 May 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2003
15 May 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2003
15 May 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2003
15 May 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2003
15 May 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2003
10 April 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2003
10 April 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2003
10 April 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2003
10 April 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2003
10 April 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2003
9 April 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2003
28 March 2003
OTHER PUBLICATION
13 March 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2003
13 March 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2003
13 March 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2003
13 March 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2003
13 March 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2003
13 March 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2003
13 March 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2003
13 March 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2003
13 March 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2003
6 March 2003
OTHER PUBLICATION
13 February 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2003
13 February 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2003
13 February 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2003
23 January 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2003
23 January 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2003
23 January 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2003
20 December 2002
OTHER PUBLICATION
12 December 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2002
12 December 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2002
12 December 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2002
12 December 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2002
12 December 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2002
12 December 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2002
12 December 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2002
12 December 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2002
12 December 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2002
14 November 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2002
14 November 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2002
14 November 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2002
14 November 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2002
14 November 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2002
14 November 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2002
14 November 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2002
17 October 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2002
17 October 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2002
17 October 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2002
17 October 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2002
17 October 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2002
17 October 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2002
17 October 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2002
12 October 2002
OTHER PUBLICATION
Annexes
12 December 2003
ANNEX
Related
19 September 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2002
19 September 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2002
19 September 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2002
19 September 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2002
19 September 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2002
19 September 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2002
19 September 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2002
8 August 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2002
8 August 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2002
8 August 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2002
8 August 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2002
8 August 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2002
8 August 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2002
22 July 2002
OTHER PUBLICATION
11 July 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2002
11 July 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2002
11 July 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2002
11 July 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2002
11 July 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2002
11 July 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2002
25 June 2002
OTHER PUBLICATION
13 June 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2002
13 June 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2002
13 June 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2002
13 June 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2002
13 June 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2002
13 June 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2002
13 June 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2002
13 June 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2002
10 June 2002
OTHER PUBLICATION
9 May 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2002
9 May 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2002
9 May 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2002
9 May 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2002
9 May 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2002
28 April 2002
OTHER PUBLICATION
11 April 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2002
11 April 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2002
15 March 2002
OTHER PUBLICATION
14 March 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2002
14 March 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2002
14 March 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2002
14 March 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2002
14 March 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2002
14 March 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2002
14 February 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2002
14 February 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2002
14 February 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2002
14 February 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2002
14 February 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2002
24 January 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2002
24 January 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2002
24 January 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2002
24 January 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2002
24 January 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2002
13 December 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2001
13 December 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2001
13 December 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2001
13 December 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2001
13 December 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2001
13 December 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2001
13 December 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2001
13 December 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2001
18 November 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2001
15 November 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2001
15 November 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2001
15 November 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2001
15 November 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2001
18 October 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2001
18 October 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2001
18 October 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2001
18 October 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2001
18 October 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2001
20 September 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2001
20 September 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2001
20 September 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2001
20 September 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2001
20 September 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2001
20 September 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2001
20 September 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2001
30 August 2001
OTHER PUBLICATION
Related
24 August 2001
OTHER PUBLICATION
20 August 2001
OTHER PUBLICATION
9 August 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2001
9 August 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2001
9 August 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2001
9 August 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2001
9 August 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2001
9 August 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2001
9 August 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2001
9 August 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2001
30 July 2001
OTHER PUBLICATION
29 July 2001
OTHER PUBLICATION
12 July 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2001
12 July 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2001
12 July 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2001
12 July 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2001
12 July 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2001
11 July 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2001
23 June 2001
OTHER PUBLICATION
14 June 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2001
14 June 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2001
14 June 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2001
14 June 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2001
14 June 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2001
14 June 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2001
14 June 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2001
14 June 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2001
14 June 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2001
14 June 2001
OTHER PUBLICATION
17 May 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2001
17 May 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2001
17 May 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2001
17 May 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2001
17 May 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2001
17 May 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2001
19 April 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2001
19 April 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2001
19 April 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2001
19 April 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2001
24 March 2001
OTHER PUBLICATION
8 March 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2001
8 March 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2001
8 March 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2001
8 March 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2001
8 March 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2001
8 March 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2001
19 February 2001
OTHER PUBLICATION
8 February 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2001
8 February 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2001
8 February 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2001
8 February 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2001
11 January 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2001
11 January 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2001
11 January 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2001
11 January 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2001
11 January 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2001
11 January 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2001
21 December 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2000
21 December 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2000
21 December 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2000
21 December 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2000
21 December 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2000
21 December 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2000
21 December 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 2000
9 November 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2000
9 November 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2000
9 November 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2000
9 November 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2000
9 November 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2000
9 November 2000
OTHER PUBLICATION
12 October 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2000
12 October 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2000
12 October 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2000
21 September 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2000
21 September 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2000
21 September 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2000
21 September 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2000
21 September 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2000
21 September 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2000
21 September 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2000
10 August 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2000
10 August 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2000
13 July 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2000
13 July 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2000
13 July 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2000
13 July 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2000
13 July 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2000
13 July 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2000
15 June 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2000
15 June 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2000
15 June 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2000
15 June 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2000
15 June 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2000
15 June 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2000
18 May 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2000
18 May 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2000
18 May 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2000
18 May 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2000
18 May 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2000
22 April 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2000
20 April 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2000
20 April 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2000
20 April 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2000
20 April 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2000
9 March 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2000
9 March 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2000
9 March 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2000
9 March 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2000
9 March 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2000
10 February 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2000
10 February 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2000
10 February 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2000
10 February 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2000
10 February 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2000
13 January 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2000
13 January 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2000
13 January 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2000
13 January 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2000
13 January 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2000
9 December 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 1999
9 December 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 1999
9 December 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 1999
9 December 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 1999
9 December 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 1999
9 December 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 1999
9 December 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 1999
9 December 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 1999
9 December 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 12, 1999
11 November 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 1999
11 November 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 1999
11 November 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 1999
14 October 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 1999
14 October 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 1999
14 October 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 1999
14 October 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 1999
14 October 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 1999
14 October 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 1999
16 September 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 1999
16 September 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 1999
16 September 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 1999
17 August 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 1999
17 August 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 1999
18 July 1999
OTHER PUBLICATION
13 July 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 1999
13 July 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 1999
13 July 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 1999
13 July 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 1999
13 July 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 1999
13 July 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 1999
13 July 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 1999
15 June 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 1999
15 June 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 1999
15 June 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 1999
15 June 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 1999
15 June 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 1999
18 May 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 1999
18 May 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 1999
18 May 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 1999
20 April 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 1999
20 April 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 1999
20 April 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 1999
20 April 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 1999
20 April 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 1999
17 March 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 1999
17 March 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 1999
17 March 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 1999
17 March 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 1999
16 February 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 1999
16 February 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 1999
16 February 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 1999
16 February 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 1999
19 January 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 1999
19 January 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 1999
19 January 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 1999
19 January 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 1999
19 January 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 1999
19 January 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 1999
19 January 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 1999
19 January 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 1999
1 February 1997
OTHER PUBLICATION
21 November 1995
OTHER PUBLICATION

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