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Publications on ECB
- 30 March 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The box provides an assessment of the impact of the pandemic on the exports of firms involved in global value chains (“GVC” firms), based on firm-level data for France. Following the outbreak of the pandemic, GVC firms, defined as firms that both export and import, faced disruptions in their supplies from source countries. These shortages of intermediate inputs traded via global value chains constrained firms’ production and exports. The weaker export performance of GVC firms relative to other exporters coincided with the emergence of supply bottlenecks, which suggests that these disruptions were a key factor holding back the performance of firms involved in global value chains. Estimates in this box suggest that these supply-side disruptions had a significant downward impact on exports in the euro area in 2020 and 2021.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F61 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Microeconomic Impacts
- 29 March 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box presents a stylised, model-based, general equilibrium assessment of the global economic effects of trade fragmentation. The focus is on a rather extreme scenario in which two hypothetical geopolitical blocs raise barriers to trade in intermediate goods, causing a relocation of supply chains to countries within the same bloc (“friend-shoring”). Using a model developed by Baqaee and Farhi, we find that economic losses (in terms of welfare, trade and prices) can be sizeable, depending on the degree of rigidities embedded in the model. Effects are also heterogeneous across countries, as small, open economies that are reliant on global value chains are more affected. The findings in this box suggest that trade fragmentation would be a lose-lose situation for all parties involved and leave the global economy more vulnerable to shocks.
- JEL Code
- F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 27 March 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box assesses the uneven economic effects of the recent surge in energy prices across households and firms in the euro area. The box first uses disaggregated data to disentangle the effects of the deterioration in the energy terms of trade on final expenditures and aggregate income, allocating the implied purchasing power losses across the household income distribution. The box then uses structural economic models to identify the energy price shock underlying the recent terms-of-trade deterioration and to gauge its direct, indirect and second-round effects on the overall economy. As regards the results, the different exposures of households to higher energy costs and lower income indicate a relatively larger impact of the energy terms-of-trade deterioration on lower-income households. The direct and indirect effects of the energy price shock mainly impacted private consumption on the expenditure side and non-energy sectors on the income side. The second-round effects spread the impact more evenly across private consumption and investment, with the government partially shielding private sector disposable income.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
- 14 February 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The box investigates the role of energy prices in the dynamics of euro area industrial production and goods import volumes since autumn 2021, when gas supplies from Russia to the European Union (EU) were curtailed significantly. Despite the sharp rise in energy prices and the uncertainty generated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, euro area industrial production has fluctuated without exhibiting a clear trend, while import volumes of goods excluding energy have risen steadily. Several factors, such as adverse energy supply shocks in combination with the easing of supply bottlenecks and a recovery in demand, are behind these developments. There are signs that cheaper imports, particularly of intermediate goods, have acted as substitutes for domestic manufacturing production in more energy-intensive sectors.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
- 22 September 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Employment growth in the public sector has played an important role in supporting total employment during the pandemic. Following the small decline in public sector employment and the trough in economic activity in the second quarter of 2020, public sector employment has contributed about 1 percentage point (1.5 million persons) to the cumulative total employment growth of about 4.2% (6.6 million persons). Most of the employment growth in the public sector is associated with the health and education sub-sectors. In both of these sub-sectors, activity has not only increased during the pandemic but has also shown a positive trend over time. Specifically, unlike during previous euro area crises, temporary employment in the public sector has risen during the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis and remains above its underlying trend by about 300,000 persons (0.2% of the euro area labour force). This increase in temporary public sector employment is itself driven mostly by the education and health sub-sectors and is probably due in particular to the health measures associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. As the impact of the pandemic recedes, this increase could be partly reversed.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- 29 July 2022
- ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT
- 21 June 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022Details
- Abstract
- In this box, we present a new measure of domestic inflation for the euro area that takes into account the import intensity of HICP items. For this new indicator, the import intensities of HICP items are derived using information from national accounts and input-output tables. The HICP items with a relatively low import intensity are subsequently aggregated to a “Low IMport Intensity” (LIMI) inflation indicator. Differently to the literature, an empirical assessment is used to determine an optimal threshold for these import intensities. While the ECB’s inflation target is formulated in terms of headline inflation, the concept of domestic inflation is of analytical relevance to monetary policy, as it features prominently in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Common indicators of domestic inflation, such as the GDP deflator or core inflation, either include elements that are not directly related to consumer prices or exclude volatile components that may nonetheless be driven by domestic factors. The LIMI inflation indicator can complement the information provided by these other indicators in an assessment of the underlying inflationary pressures.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- 20 June 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The €STR, launched in October 2019, is the official euro-denominated risk-free benchmark interest rate. It fully replaced EONIA from January 2022, after a transition period of more than two years. The article explains what benchmark rates are, why they are important for financial markets and why the ECB needs robust and reliable benchmark rates from a monetary policy perspective. It provides an overview of the close cooperation with market participants, the creation and main features of the €STR, how it is calculated on the basis of MMSR data, the robustness of its production and overall framework and the transparency policy on errors.
- JEL Code
- E49 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Other
- 28 April 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box reviews the large errors made throughout 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 in Eurosystem and ECB staff inflation projections. Errors in conditioning assumptions, notably due to unexpected energy price increases, are estimated to explain around three-quarters of these errors. Such errors are inherent to the nature of Eurosystem and ECB staff projections, which are conditioned on a set of assumptions, mainly stemming from market-based information including on energy prices. Supply bottlenecks being more persistent than expected, the recovery in economic activity being swifter than predicted, and the transmission of the energy price shock possibly being stronger than usual also played a role, and these factors likely explain a large portion of the errors in projecting HICP inflation excluding energy and food. A comparison with peer institutions shows that large inflation errors were widespread, not only across forecasters but also across economies. This emphasises the predominant role of global factors in a context of steep commodity price increases, especially for energy. While Eurosystem and ECB staff take all available information into account and continuously refine the models used in their projections, inflation developments are likely to remain challenging to forecast in the near term due to the volatile price movements in energy commodities, the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine and reopening effects following the removal of pandemic-related restrictions. In this context, complementing the Eurosystem and ECB staff baseline projections with scenario and sensitivity analyses help provide a richer representation of the inflation outlook.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 28 April 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box reviews the dynamics of household savings as derived from deposit flows across the wealth distribution from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020 to the surge in inflation that started in the second quarter of 2021. An empirical model disentangles the underlying drivers of household deposit flows across the wealth distribution. Pandemic-related restrictions initially led to an increase in deposit flows, while increases in inflation arising mostly from cost-push shocks subsequently weighed on deposit flows, raising savings inequality in both cases. It is likely that developments in deposit dynamics and savings inequality will continue to be shaped by pandemic-related restrictions and cost-push inflation, as well as uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.
- JEL Code
- D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
R20 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→General
Q11 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Agriculture→Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis, Prices
- 28 April 2022
- OTHER PUBLICATIONRelated
- 28 April 2022
- ANNUAL REPORTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 24 March 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box reviews the inventory cycle in the euro area, which normally is procyclical and notoriously volatile. The annual change in stocks of finished goods in manufacturing, based on PMI data, points to a continued positive inventory contribution to GDP growth in the first quarter of 2022. While fluctuations in this contribution generally reflect adjustments to cyclical changes in supply and demand, the current acceleration in stockbuilding could also reflect a “bullwhip effect”. This occurs where, as a precaution, manufacturing firms tend to hoard inventories of inputs, and at times inflate orders compared with actual needs, when faced with high demand and uncertainty about the supply of inputs. Looking ahead, short-term indicators and evidence from the ECB’s regular dialogue with non-financial companies point to further re-stocking needs, although the pace of such inventory building would depend on the resolution of the prevailing supply-side constraints.
- JEL Code
- F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
G31 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Capital Budgeting, Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies, Capacity
R41 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Transportation Economics→Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion, Safety and Accidents, Transportation Noise
- 24 March 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Strains in global supply chains of goods have been weighing on the global business cycle since late 2020. Given the multifaceted nature of supply bottlenecks, this box uses a relatively large set of indicators to track their causes. These indicators can help identify any signs of improvement or deterioration in specific economic sectors at an earlier stage. These sectoral indicators are represented in the form of heatmaps for the euro area and the United States. Recent data suggest that supply bottlenecks remain at historically high levels in both economies but may be starting to ease.
- JEL Code
- C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
- 21 March 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXThe labour market recovery in the euro area through the lens of the ECB Consumer Expectations SurveyEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses the current labour market recovery using data from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES). The CES allows for unique insights into the expectations and perceptions of labour market participants in the largest six countries of the euro area. We show that discouragement and unemployment perceptions declined as labour market conditions improved, while job-to-job transitions increased and so did earnings expectations. Despite the severity of the COVID-19 crisis there is no strong evidence in CES survey responses of a substantial deterioration in skill match and job satisfaction.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J62 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility
- 17 February 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box assesses the role of migration in weak labour force developments during the COVID-19 pandemic. The labour force in the euro area remains well below the dynamics expected before the outbreak of the pandemic. This gap reflects both a weaker than expected growth in the working age population and a lower than expected labour force participation rate. Subdued net immigration may have contributed to these developments, with some foreign workers resettling in their home countries. It is likely that several factors have weighed on inward migration flows, including weaker employment prospects, travel restrictions and pervasive uncertainty induced by the pandemic. The share of foreign workers in the euro area may gradually converge towards the levels expected pre-pandemic, but risks are overall tilted to the downside.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- 15 February 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box reviews the dependence of the euro area on natural gas and provides an assessment of the impact of gas price increases and a possible rationing shock on activity. Natural gas is the second most important primary energy resource in the euro area and the most important in the manufacturing sector. More than 90% of the natural gas consumed in the euro area is imported. With indirect use in the early stages of production accounting for more than two-thirds of gas consumption, supply chain linkages significantly amplify the reaction of goods producers and services providers to gas price increases. An accounting framework based on input-output tables shows that the direct and indirect impact of a hypothetical 10% gas rationing shock would reduce euro area gross value added by about 0.7%. Illustrative simulations based on the ongoing surge in oil and gas prices and futures suggest that, by the end of 2022, euro area real GDP may be around 0.2% lower than its counterfactual level, with the effect likely peaking in the first quarter of this year.
- JEL Code
- D45 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→Rationing, Licensing
D57 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Input?Output Tables and Analysis
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 12 January 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box reviews how the ECB’s communication on the economic outlook has evolved over time and how it compares with that of two other major central banks. Standard metrics reveal that over time the communication on the economic outlook has gradually become clearer, making monetary policy more transparent and effective. The ECB’s communication differs from that of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Board, reflecting the differences in their monetary policy strategies. The ECB uses the term “money” more often, while the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Board communicate the terms “unemployment” and “slack” more frequently. Textual analysis underscores the importance of narratives in communicating quantitative economic forecasts. To build informative narratives, the ECB relies on a wide range of economic models, tools and surveys.
- JEL Code
- E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 12 January 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021Details
- Abstract
- How central banks communicate matters. Communication has become a key instrument to make policy more effective and improve central banks’ transparency and accountability, ultimately helping to build trust among the wider public whom they serve. As part of its recent strategy review, the ECB analysed how its communication, in particular with the wider public, can be improved. This article further complements the findings of the strategy review. The article aims to provide a better understanding of the ECB’s audiences among the wider public, what matters to them, and what happens between the sending and the receiving end of ECB communication. The findings point to possible avenues to make the ECB’s monetary policy communication more effective.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 11 January 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box reviews the key factors that have been causing global supply chain disruptions and assesses their impact on euro area industrial production. After the exceptionally swift and strong rebound in global demand since the second half of 2020, supply has been increasingly unable to meet demand, with repercussions on euro area manufacturing production. Moreover, disruptions associated with container shipping, shortages of raw materials and semiconductors, as well as selective lockdown measures in key Asian countries, have also adversely affected the normal functioning of global supply chains. These disruptions are estimated to have reduced the level of euro area industrial production by 2.6% cumulatively between October 2020 and September 2021. Since this equates to around 20% of total value added, these estimates suggest that euro area GDP would have been around 0.5% higher in 2021 had it not been for the supply bottlenecks. This estimate can be considered a lower bound, as supply bottlenecks continued to affect production in the last quarter of 2021, as well as having an impact on construction and business services.
- JEL Code
- C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
- 10 January 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021Details
- Abstract
- Post-pandemic labour market developments in the United States and United Kingdom show that imbalances between labour demand and labour supply are causing a high and unusual tightness in the labour market for such an early stage in a recovery. This could translate into broad-based wage pressures, in turn posing a risk to inflation. Such pressures are becoming increasingly visible in the United States, but are less marked in the United Kingdom.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
- 11 November 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box assesses labour supply developments during the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic labour supply has fallen sharply. It has partially recovered, although it remains substantially below pre-pandemic levels. While labour force was initially affected in a similar way across the largest euro area countries, there was also some heterogeneity across countries and demographic groups. When taking the pre-pandemic trends into account, workers with a low and medium level of education as well as older workers explain the largest part of the current gap to the pre-pandemic trends. A full recovery of labour force participation to the rising pre-pandemic trend will likely be gradual.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- 10 November 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021Details
- Abstract
- The growth of euro area labour productivity, measured by real GDP per hour worked, increased at the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic before declining during the subsequent economic recovery. This contradicts the general notion of productivity being procyclical and reflects the unique nature of this crisis. This box discusses the recent patterns in labour productivity and considers the extent to which some of these developments might fade or consolidate after the crisis.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
D61 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Allocative Efficiency, Cost?Benefit Analysis
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
- 10 November 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021Details
- Abstract
- Productivity plays a key role in the economic resilience and social welfare of countries. Central bankers are also interested in higher productivity growth because it would contribute to increasing the natural rate of interest and, therefore, the effectiveness of monetary policy, its room for manoeuvre and its transmission to the economy. With this monetary policy perspective in mind, this article aims to show key productivity trends and drivers over the past few decades in the euro area. The article is complemented by Box 4 in this issue of the Economic Bulletin, which presents preliminary evidence on the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and of policy responses to it, on productivity in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
D61 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Allocative Efficiency, Cost?Benefit Analysis
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
- 3 November 2021
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 23 September 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box documents recent transport and input-related bottlenecks in global trade and shows how euro area countries have been particularly affected. An empirical analysis assesses the impact of supply bottlenecks on global and euro area export growth and estimates the cumulated shortfall for the level of goods exports to be 6.7% for the euro area and 2.3% for the rest of the world.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 12 May 2021
- FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING
- 6 May 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box reviews the factors behind the 11-percentage point swing in energy inflation between December 2020 and March 2021, with a particular focus on oil prices, base effects and the impact of indirect taxation. Base effects linked to the collapse of oil prices at the beginning of 2020 pushed up energy inflation by around 5 percentage points between December 2020 and March 2021, and this contribution can be expected to increase substantially further in April. The impact of the marked increase in oil prices since November 2020 has come on top of this. However, the strengthening of energy inflation in early 2021 has reflected not only oil price developments but also changes in taxes and other surcharges – including environmentally motivated measures such as the introduction of carbon emission certificates. Overall, energy inflation plays a prominent role in the temporary rise in overall HICP inflation projected for 2021 and its reduction in early 2022.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q4 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
H2 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
- 5 May 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021Details
- Abstract
- The experience of the last ten years shows that the composition of government debt plays an important role in several analytical and policy domains such as public debt management, financial stability and sovereign debt sustainability. Against this background, the article provides an overview of the evolution of the structure of public debt by holder in euro area countries and explores in more detail the structure of domestically held government debt with a special focus on households. In the first decade of EMU, the share of foreign holdings of euro area government debt, including both creditors from other euro area countries and creditors from outside the euro area, has been increasing owing to deepening financial integration. Following the global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis, the share of domestic holdings increased again, first driven by holdings of banks and other financial corporations and, since 2015, mainly by central banks’ holdings. The role of households’ direct holdings of government debt is relatively limited at around 2% of total government debt in the euro area, although it is more sizeable in several euro area countries and in some other advanced economies. However, considering indirect holdings through investment funds, insurance corporations and pension funds, the share of households in financing government debt is more significant, albeit slightly decreasing over time, and amounted to almost 16% in the euro area in 2020.
- JEL Code
- H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
H1 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
- 14 April 2021
- OTHER PUBLICATIONRelated
- 14 April 2021
- ANNUAL REPORTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 25 March 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021Details
- Abstract
- The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic triggered significant changes in household spending in 2020. These shifts are reflected in the 2021 HICP weights, and consequently, also in measured annual inflation. The impact of these new HICP weights on annual inflation is not insignificant and is also heterogenous across countries. Looking ahead, the full impact will most likely only materialise over the course of the year as the relative prices gradually change.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 25 March 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box compares the economic performance of the euro area and the United States during 2020. While it is not yet possible to assess the long-term impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, it is interesting to take stock of the economic developments that have led to the worst loss in output in either region since the Second World War. Primarily as a result of the stricter pandemic-related lockdowns in the euro area, total GDP losses for 2020 somewhat exceeded those in the United States. Nevertheless, the pattern in private consumption was similar in both economies despite the considerably larger fiscal transfers provided in response to the crisis in the United States. Job retention schemes, which cushioned the significant adverse impact of the crisis on employment, and other direct transfers to firms and households have been key elements of the euro area’s fiscal support. Inflation was more subdued in the euro area, partly on account of special factors like the temporary reduction in German VAT.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
J82 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Labor Standards: National and International→Labor Force Composition
- 23 March 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021Details
- Abstract
- The EU’s recovery package has the potential to mitigate the heterogeneous fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. Its effectiveness will depend on the achievement of an adequate balance of mutually reinforcing investments and reforms. To ensure a timely and efficient absorption of recovery funds for productive public spending, special attention should be paid to bolstering administrative capacity and reducing implementation bottlenecks.
- JEL Code
- E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
H12 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Crisis Management
O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
- 4 February 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses the developments in prices for travel-related services across items and across euro area countries. The purpose is to clarify the extent to which there are commonalities when it comes to explaining the sharp drop in travel-related services inflation.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 2 February 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021Last updated on 10 February 2021Details
- Abstract
- Euro area countries have relied extensively on fiscal policy to counter the harmful impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on their economies. They have implemented a broad range of measures, some with an immediate budgetary impact and others, such as liquidity measures, which, in principle, are not expected to cause an immediate deterioration in the fiscal outlook. Since all euro area countries were hit by the economic shock largely through the same channels, their fiscal responses in the early stages of the crisis were similar in terms of the instruments used. Fiscal emergency packages were mostly aimed at limiting the economic fallout from containment measures through direct measures to protect firms and workers in the affected industries. Simultaneously, extensive liquidity support measures in the form of tax deferrals and State guarantees were announced to help firms particularly impacted by the containment policies to avoid liquidity shortages. In order to support the recovery, fiscal policy needs to provide targeted and mostly temporary stimulus, tailored to the specific characteristics of the crisis and countries’ fiscal positions. Government investments, complemented by the Next Generation EU package, and accompanied by appropriate structural policies, should play a major role in this respect.
- JEL Code
- H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
H1 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government
H5 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
- 7 January 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020Details
- Abstract
- The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the lockdown measures to contain its spread caused large cumulated losses in euro area domestic demand in the first half of 2020, with a rebound in the third quarter of the year, according to the standard expenditure-based breakdown of GDP. However, an adjustment for import intensities derived from input-output data shows that external factors have also contributed significantly to growth dynamics in 2020. While an extended analysis based on ratios of sectoral imports to value added as a proxy suggests that import intensities may have, in aggregate, risen somewhat in the current crisis, this does not have a significant impact on the alternative, import-adjusted GDP breakdown for 2020.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 6 January 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020Details
- Abstract
- Can the indicator of negotiated wage rates play an especially important role in assessing and forecasting wage dynamics at the current juncture? While the data on negotiated wages are available on a more timely basis, negotiated wage growth tends to only react with some lag to changes in labour market conditions, owing to the nature of the negotiation process, and the indicator is currently still dominated by wage agreements agreed prior to the pandemic. The main effects of the pandemic on negotiated wage growth are likely to become visible only from 2021 – when a substantial share of wage contracts in euro area countries is due to be renegotiated. Wage drift developments, in conjunction with information on hours worked and unemployment, can provide some indications regarding the environment in which these negotiations will take place. The availability of more granular data, for example on negotiated wage growth in different sectors, would be very helpful in analysing euro area wage developments in more detail.
- JEL Code
- H24 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
- 23 November 2020
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- Credit rating downgrades - especially downgrades from investment grade to high yield (“fallen angels”) - can adversely affect the price and ease of a firm’s debt issuance. Such a downgrade can force (institutional) investors to sell securities, as investment mandates may restrict the securities that they are allowed to hold. We find that market repricing does not typically happen instantaneously after a downgrade, but instead over an extended period which preceding the actual downgrade. The impact of sales by institutional investors is softened by differences in the definition of “investment grade” and flexibility in investment funds’ mandates. Fallen angels since February 2020 follow this pattern, but with a swifter and stronger increase in the credit premium before the first downgrade. Securities of pandemic-related fallen angels show some post-event illiquidity which may be explained by the relatively sudden change in the broader economic outlook and wider market stress. Downgrades to below investment grade are typically also associated with lower bond issuance volumes. If a larger cohort of firms were to face funding pressures, this increases their vulnerability to shocks in the near term and, in the long term, could weigh on investment, creating wider macroeconomic costs.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 24 September 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This box reviews the impact of changes in indirect taxes on inflation developments in the euro area. In the past, increases in indirect taxes have tended to contribute positively to inflation in the euro area. However, the recent reductions in indirect taxes in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in several euro area countries, in particular in Germany, have not been seen before in the euro area on this scale. The impact they will have on inflation is surrounded by considerable uncertainty, but overall the pass-through is likely to be incomplete and to vary across sectors. In this respect, the September 2020 staff projections expect only a quite limited pass-through. The effects are nevertheless large enough to imply a slight V-shape profile for underlying inflation excluding the effects of changes in indirect taxes concealed in the annual numbers for HICPX, as well as a gradual increase between 2020 and 2022.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
H22 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Incidence
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 22 September 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020Details
- Abstract
- In response to COVID-19 the euro area household saving rate reached unprecedented levels in the first half of 2020. First, lockdown measures prohibited households from consuming a large share of their normal expenditure basket, leading to forced savings. Second, the sudden outbreak of the pandemic caused the risk of future unemployment to shoot up, leading to precautionary savings. Using a parsimonious panel model this box finds that forced savings have been the main driver of the recent spike in household savings. Despite these accumulated savings, however, households remain cautious about their future spending.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 7 May 2020
- OTHER PUBLICATIONRelated
- 7 May 2020
- ANNUAL REPORTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 6 November 2019
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2019Details
- Abstract
- This article provides a review of the global trends in central banks’ foreign currency reserve holdings in terms of their size, adequacy and composition, before examining the ECB’s foreign currency reserves and how these reserves are managed.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F55 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Institutional Arrangements
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
- 20 December 2018
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2018Details
- Abstract
- In the third quarter of 2018, the total number of people in employment in the euro area was 9.6 million higher than in the second quarter of 2013 (when it fell to its lowest point during the crisis). The increase in employment in the course of the recovery has more than offset the decline observed during the crisis. As a result, euro area employment is now at its highest level ever, standing at 158.3 million. This box describes the net employment growth in the euro area over the course of the recovery and compares it with the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the first quarter of 2008 (i.e. from the introduction of the euro to the start of the crisis), which was also characterised by a continuous increase in employment at the level of the euro area as a whole.
- JEL Code
- J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- 19 December 2018
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2018Details
- Abstract
- Against the background of financial market volatility in some emerging market economies (EMEs) since April, this box reviews key vulnerabilities in EMEs. Specifically, it assesses their resilience to external shocks compared to previous crisis episodes.
- JEL Code
- F3 : International Economics→International Finance
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- 8 November 2018
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2018Details
- Abstract
- Euro area headline inflation is currently dominated by a strong contribution from energy prices. In the third quarter of 2018, energy prices contributed 0.9 percentage point to the headline HICP inflation rate of around 2.0%, thus accounting for almost half. This large contribution mainly reflects past developments in crude oil prices, a factor that constitutes a common influence across euro area countries. However, the contribution of energy to HICP inflation depends both on the share of energy in consumption expenditure and on the degree of pass-through of oil price developments to consumer energy prices. This box reviews the extent to which these features can help explain differences across euro area countries in the recent contribution of energy to overall HICP inflation.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
Q47 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy Forecasting
- 29 October 2018
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- 28 September 2018
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- 10 April 2017
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