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Publications on ECB

25 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic triggered significant changes in household spending in 2020. These shifts are reflected in the 2021 HICP weights, and consequently, also in measured annual inflation. The impact of these new HICP weights on annual inflation is not insignificant and is also heterogenous across countries. Looking ahead, the full impact will most likely only materialise over the course of the year as the relative prices gradually change.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
25 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box compares the economic performance of the euro area and the United States during 2020. While it is not yet possible to assess the long-term impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, it is interesting to take stock of the economic developments that have led to the worst loss in output in either region since the Second World War. Primarily as a result of the stricter pandemic-related lockdowns in the euro area, total GDP losses for 2020 somewhat exceeded those in the United States. Nevertheless, the pattern in private consumption was similar in both economies despite the considerably larger fiscal transfers provided in response to the crisis in the United States. Job retention schemes, which cushioned the significant adverse impact of the crisis on employment, and other direct transfers to firms and households have been key elements of the euro area’s fiscal support. Inflation was more subdued in the euro area, partly on account of special factors like the temporary reduction in German VAT.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
J82 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Labor Standards: National and International→Labor Force Composition
23 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
The EU’s recovery package has the potential to mitigate the heterogeneous fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. Its effectiveness will depend on the achievement of an adequate balance of mutually reinforcing investments and reforms. To ensure a timely and efficient absorption of recovery funds for productive public spending, special attention should be paid to bolstering administrative capacity and reducing implementation bottlenecks.
JEL Code
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
H12 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Crisis Management
O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
4 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box analyses the developments in prices for travel-related services across items and across euro area countries. The purpose is to clarify the extent to which there are commonalities when it comes to explaining the sharp drop in travel-related services inflation.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
2 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
Last updated on 10 February 2021
Details
Abstract
Euro area countries have relied extensively on fiscal policy to counter the harmful impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on their economies. They have implemented a broad range of measures, some with an immediate budgetary impact and others, such as liquidity measures, which, in principle, are not expected to cause an immediate deterioration in the fiscal outlook. Since all euro area countries were hit by the economic shock largely through the same channels, their fiscal responses in the early stages of the crisis were similar in terms of the instruments used. Fiscal emergency packages were mostly aimed at limiting the economic fallout from containment measures through direct measures to protect firms and workers in the affected industries. Simultaneously, extensive liquidity support measures in the form of tax deferrals and State guarantees were announced to help firms particularly impacted by the containment policies to avoid liquidity shortages. In order to support the recovery, fiscal policy needs to provide targeted and mostly temporary stimulus, tailored to the specific characteristics of the crisis and countries’ fiscal positions. Government investments, complemented by the Next Generation EU package, and accompanied by appropriate structural policies, should play a major role in this respect.
JEL Code
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
H1 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government
H5 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
7 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the lockdown measures to contain its spread caused large cumulated losses in euro area domestic demand in the first half of 2020, with a rebound in the third quarter of the year, according to the standard expenditure-based breakdown of GDP. However, an adjustment for import intensities derived from input-output data shows that external factors have also contributed significantly to growth dynamics in 2020. While an extended analysis based on ratios of sectoral imports to value added as a proxy suggests that import intensities may have, in aggregate, risen somewhat in the current crisis, this does not have a significant impact on the alternative, import-adjusted GDP breakdown for 2020.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
6 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
Can the indicator of negotiated wage rates play an especially important role in assessing and forecasting wage dynamics at the current juncture? While the data on negotiated wages are available on a more timely basis, negotiated wage growth tends to only react with some lag to changes in labour market conditions, owing to the nature of the negotiation process, and the indicator is currently still dominated by wage agreements agreed prior to the pandemic. The main effects of the pandemic on negotiated wage growth are likely to become visible only from 2021 – when a substantial share of wage contracts in euro area countries is due to be renegotiated. Wage drift developments, in conjunction with information on hours worked and unemployment, can provide some indications regarding the environment in which these negotiations will take place. The availability of more granular data, for example on negotiated wage growth in different sectors, would be very helpful in analysing euro area wage developments in more detail.
JEL Code
H24 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
23 November 2020
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2020
Details
Abstract
Credit rating downgrades - especially downgrades from investment grade to high yield (“fallen angels”) - can adversely affect the price and ease of a firm’s debt issuance. Such a downgrade can force (institutional) investors to sell securities, as investment mandates may restrict the securities that they are allowed to hold. We find that market repricing does not typically happen instantaneously after a downgrade, but instead over an extended period which preceding the actual downgrade. The impact of sales by institutional investors is softened by differences in the definition of “investment grade” and flexibility in investment funds’ mandates. Fallen angels since February 2020 follow this pattern, but with a swifter and stronger increase in the credit premium before the first downgrade. Securities of pandemic-related fallen angels show some post-event illiquidity which may be explained by the relatively sudden change in the broader economic outlook and wider market stress. Downgrades to below investment grade are typically also associated with lower bond issuance volumes. If a larger cohort of firms were to face funding pressures, this increases their vulnerability to shocks in the near term and, in the long term, could weigh on investment, creating wider macroeconomic costs.
JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
24 September 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box reviews the impact of changes in indirect taxes on inflation developments in the euro area. In the past, increases in indirect taxes have tended to contribute positively to inflation in the euro area. However, the recent reductions in indirect taxes in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in several euro area countries, in particular in Germany, have not been seen before in the euro area on this scale. The impact they will have on inflation is surrounded by considerable uncertainty, but overall the pass-through is likely to be incomplete and to vary across sectors. In this respect, the September 2020 staff projections expect only a quite limited pass-through. The effects are nevertheless large enough to imply a slight V-shape profile for underlying inflation excluding the effects of changes in indirect taxes concealed in the annual numbers for HICPX, as well as a gradual increase between 2020 and 2022.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
H22 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Incidence
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
22 September 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020
Details
Abstract
In response to COVID-19 the euro area household saving rate reached unprecedented levels in the first half of 2020. First, lockdown measures prohibited households from consuming a large share of their normal expenditure basket, leading to forced savings. Second, the sudden outbreak of the pandemic caused the risk of future unemployment to shoot up, leading to precautionary savings. Using a parsimonious panel model this box finds that forced savings have been the main driver of the recent spike in household savings. Despite these accumulated savings, however, households remain cautious about their future spending.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
7 May 2020
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
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6 November 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2019
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Abstract
This article provides a review of the global trends in central banks’ foreign currency reserve holdings in terms of their size, adequacy and composition, before examining the ECB’s foreign currency reserves and how these reserves are managed.
JEL Code
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F55 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Institutional Arrangements
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
20 December 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2018
Details
Abstract
In the third quarter of 2018, the total number of people in employment in the euro area was 9.6 million higher than in the second quarter of 2013 (when it fell to its lowest point during the crisis). The increase in employment in the course of the recovery has more than offset the decline observed during the crisis. As a result, euro area employment is now at its highest level ever, standing at 158.3 million. This box describes the net employment growth in the euro area over the course of the recovery and compares it with the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the first quarter of 2008 (i.e. from the introduction of the euro to the start of the crisis), which was also characterised by a continuous increase in employment at the level of the euro area as a whole.
JEL Code
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
19 December 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2018
Details
Abstract
Against the background of financial market volatility in some emerging market economies (EMEs) since April, this box reviews key vulnerabilities in EMEs. Specifically, it assesses their resilience to external shocks compared to previous crisis episodes.
JEL Code
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
8 November 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2018
Details
Abstract
Euro area headline inflation is currently dominated by a strong contribution from energy prices. In the third quarter of 2018, energy prices contributed 0.9 percentage point to the headline HICP inflation rate of around 2.0%, thus accounting for almost half. This large contribution mainly reflects past developments in crude oil prices, a factor that constitutes a common influence across euro area countries. However, the contribution of energy to HICP inflation depends both on the share of energy in consumption expenditure and on the degree of pass-through of oil price developments to consumer energy prices. This box reviews the extent to which these features can help explain differences across euro area countries in the recent contribution of energy to overall HICP inflation.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
Q47 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy Forecasting
29 October 2018
FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING
ECB Forum on Central Banking 2018
28 September 2018
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
18 April 2018
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
3 November 2017
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
11 October 2017
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
English
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29 September 2017
FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING
ECB Forum on Central Banking 2017
10 April 2017
ANNUAL REPORT
16 February 2017
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
16 February 2017
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
31 October 2016
FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING
ECB Forum on Central Banking 2016
7 April 2016
ANNUAL REPORT
18 February 2016
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
18 February 2016
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
3 November 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2015
20 April 2015
ANNUAL REPORT
19 February 2015
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
19 February 2015
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
19 December 2014
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
English
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10 October 2014
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
7 April 2014
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
7 April 2014
ANNUAL REPORT
26 March 2014
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
20 February 2014
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
28 January 2014
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
Related
24 April 2013
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
24 April 2013
ANNUAL REPORT
21 February 2013
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
25 April 2012
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
25 April 2012
ANNUAL REPORT
12 April 2012
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2012
8 March 2012
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
2 May 2011
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
2 May 2011
ANNUAL REPORT
10 March 2011
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
3 March 2011
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
17 January 2011
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
17 January 2011
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
19 April 2010
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
19 April 2010
ANNUAL REPORT
4 March 2010
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
7 January 2010
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
12 November 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2009
22 September 2009
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
13 August 2009
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
9 July 2009
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2009
29 April 2009
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
21 April 2009
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
21 April 2009
ANNUAL REPORT
5 March 2009
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
9 October 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2008
9 October 2008
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 2008
20 June 2008
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
29 May 2008
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
19 May 2008
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
21 April 2008
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
21 April 2008
ANNUAL REPORT
6 March 2008
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
25 February 2008
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
14 August 2007
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
14 August 2007
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
23 April 2007
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
23 April 2007
ANNUAL REPORT
8 March 2007
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
18 December 2006
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
25 April 2006
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
25 April 2006
ANNUAL REPORT
12 April 2006
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2006
16 March 2006
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
15 August 2005
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
30 May 2005
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
26 April 2005
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
26 April 2005
ANNUAL REPORT
14 March 2005
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
20 December 2004
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
3 December 2004
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
Related
25 October 2004
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (4) +
8 October 2004
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
12 August 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2004
2 July 2004
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
26 May 2004
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
13 May 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2004
27 April 2004
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
13 April 2004
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2004
8 April 2004
ANNUAL REPORT
7 April 2004
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
Annexes
7 April 2004
ANNEX
18 March 2004
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
16 January 2004
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
7 November 2003
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
15 May 2003
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2003
29 April 2003
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
1 April 2003
ANNUAL REPORT
20 March 2003
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
14 November 2002
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 11, 2002
23 April 2002
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
1 April 2002
ANNUAL REPORT
21 March 2002
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
8 November 2001
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
2 May 2001
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
1 May 2001
ANNUAL REPORT
29 March 2001
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
8 February 2001
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2001
12 April 2000
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
12 April 2000
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
1 April 2000
ANNUAL REPORT
10 February 2000
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2000
14 October 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 10, 1999
13 July 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 1999
18 May 1999
ECONOMIC BULLETIN ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 1999
1 April 1999
ANNUAL REPORT
4 May 1998
ANNUAL REPORT
24 April 1997
ANNUAL REPORT
21 November 1995
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
1 April 1995
ANNUAL REPORT
1 April 1993
ANNUAL REPORT
1 April 1992
ANNUAL REPORT

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