Second joint European Central Bank – Federal Reserve Bank of New York conference on expectations surveys: a tool for research and monetary policy

Building on the success of their first joint conference on expectations surveys in November 2019, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are organising a second joint conference on 11 and 12 November 2021. The expectations of economic agents play a central role in research and policy and several surveys are currently administered, in particular by central banks. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been conducting the Survey of Consumer Expectations since 2013, while in 2020 the European Central Bank launched the Consumer Expectations Survey, a survey which currently covers the six largest euro area countries.

The aim of the conference is to bring together scholars to present their current research on expectations surveys, including surveys of households, firms, financial market participants, analysts, and other experts such as professional forecasters. The focus of the second conference will be on the use of such surveys to measure and understand economic expectations, as well as how expectations feed into economic decisions with potentially wide-reaching implications for the economy and for monetary policy. The conference programme will feature two plenary keynote sessions, one by Ricardo Reis (London School of Economics) and one by Stefanie Stantcheva (Harvard University).

For the 2021 conference, contributions in the following areas are of particular interest:

• how the global pandemic has influenced the economic expectations and behaviour of economic agents at the micro and macro levels
• the effect of policy measures, including responses by central banks and governments to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, on economic expectations and decisions
• factors influencing the way consumers and firms form expectations and investigations of the validity of alternative theories of expectations formation
• the relevance and implications of expectations surveys for central banks’ monetary policy strategies and communication
• how expectations shape behaviour, particularly through insights gained from supplementing surveys with other data sources
• methodological issues related to expectations surveys, and substantive applications of surveys related to the use of expectations in econometric models

The conference is to be hosted in Frankfurt. However, given current uncertainties linked to international travel, it is most likely to take place as a fully online event. Should circumstances permit an in-person event in Frankfurt, the organisers will cover reasonable travel and accommodation expenses for one presenter of each accepted paper, subject to the relevant institutional rules and guidelines. Presenters are asked to participate for the entire conference. Please note that attendance is by invitation only.

We invite authors to submit complete papers in PDF format via the submission platform by 12 September 2021. Authors of accepted papers will be notified by 15 October 2021.

Papers that are accepted for presentation at the conference may also be considered for possible publication in a special issue of the Journal of Monetary Economics, subject to editorial review and referee reports. Authors submitting a paper to the special issue must confirm in the comments field that their submitted paper is not under review at another journal. If you wish to have the paper considered for the special issue, please add the following phrase in the comments section when submitting your conference paper “I would also like to submit my paper to be considered for publication in the special issue of the Journal of Monetary Economics. I declare that my paper is not under submission or review at any other journal.” For further information contact SurveyExpectations@ecb.europa.eu.