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Conference on Modelling international linkages and spill-overs

3-4 October 2013, İzmir, Turkey

8.45-9:00 Opening remarks (Erdem Başçı, CBRT Governor)
09.00-12.00 Session I – International trade – CHAIR Filippo di Mauro

“Trade, unemployment and monetary policy”
Matteo Cacciatore (HEC Montréal) and Fabio Ghironi (University of Washington, EABCN, and NBER)
Discussant: Giovanni Calice (University of Birmingham)

“Market reallocation and knowledge spillovers: the gains from multinational productions”
Laura Alfaro (Harvard Business School and NBER), and Maggie X. Chen (George Washington University),
Discussant: Letizia Montinari (ECB)

“Quantifying productivity gains from foreign investment”
Christian Fons‐Rosen (Pompeu Fabra and BGSE), Sebnem Kalemli‐Ozcan (University of Maryland, CEPR, and NBER), Bent E. Sørensen (University of Houston and CEPR), Carolina Villegas‐Sanchez (ESADE – Universitat Ramon Llull), and Vadym Volosovych (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
Discussant: Mehmet Fatih Ulu (CBRT)
12.00-13.30 Lunch
13:30-15:30 Session II –Financial crises – CHAIR Paolo Pesenti

“Capital Controls and Macroprudential Measures: What Are They Good For?”
Kristin Forbes (MIT‐Sloan School of Management and NBER), Marcel Fratzscher (DIW, Humboldt University, and CEPR), and Roland Straub (ECB)
Discussant: Silvia Sgherri (IMF)

Juan Carlos Hatchondo (Indiana U. and FRB of Richmond), Leonardo Martinez (IMF), and Yasin Kursat Onder (Georgetown U. and CBRT)
Discussant: Inci Gumus (Sabancı University)
15.30-16.00 Coffee break
16.00-18.00 Session III – Econometric Methods – CHAIR Livio Stracca
“International spill‐overs of uncertainty shocks: Evidence from FAVAR
Günes Kamber, Özer Karagedikli, Michael Ryan, and Tuğrul Vehbi (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Discussant: Meltem Gülenay Chadwick (CBRT)

“Linking Firm‐level Distress to Macrofinancial Shocks: An Infinite‐Dimensional VAR Approach
Alexander Al‐Haschimi (ECB), Stephane Dees (ECB), Filippo di Mauro (ECB), and Martina Jancokova (Goethe University)
Discussant: Marco Lo Duca (ECB)
20.00 Dinner
8.45-10.30 Session IV – International transmission in financial markets I – CHAIR Mustafa Kılınç
“The great recession: a self‐fulfilling global panic”
Philippe Bacchetta (University of Lausanne, Swiss Finance Institute, and CEPR) and Eric van Wincoop (University of Virginia and NBER)
Discussant: Livio Stracca (ECB)

“Bank linkages, diversification, and contagion”
Galina Hale (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) and Jean Imbs (Paris School of Economics and CEPR)
Discussant: Graciela Kaminsky (George Washington University and NBER)
10.30-11.00 Coffee break
11.00-12.45 Session V – International transmission in financial markets II – CHAIR Murat Özbilgin
“Global Banks, Financial Shocks and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model”
Robert Kollmann (ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR)
Discussant: Paolo Pesenti (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, NBER and CEPR)

“Trend shocks, risk sharing and cross‐country portfolio holdings”
Yavuz Arslan (CBRT), Gürsu Keleş (CBRT), and Mustafa Kılınç (CBRT)
Discussants: Özge Akıncı (Federal Reserve Board)
12.45-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15:30 Concluding panel: Does international inter‐dependence imply more policy cooperation necessarily?
Erdem Başçı (CBRT), Huw Pill (Goldman Sachs), Athanasios Orphanides (MIT)

In the context of the ECB’s research network on modelling international linkages and spillovers (IntLink), the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, together with the European Central Bank, is organising a conference on "Modelling International Linkages and Spillovers" that will take place on 3 and 4 October 2013 in İzmir, Turkey.


The organisation committee, which comprises Prof. Fabio Canova (European University Institute), Mustafa Kilinc (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey), Filippo di Mauro (ECB), Paolo Pesenti (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Livio Stracca (ECB) would welcome contributions on, in particular, the following topics:

  • modelling international linkages from a theoretical perspective; key channels of transmission (real and financial);
  • modelling and empirical identification of spillovers and transmissions (real, financial and policy) between advanced and developing countries;
  • challenges associated with the estimation of open economy DSGE models;
  • time series models applied to the analysis of cross-border transmission, such as PVAR and GVAR models;
  • gravity models;
  • network analysis applied to cross-border linkages and spillovers;
  • intra-euro area spillovers;
  • modelling contagion and the transmission of extreme events; and
  • policy implications stemming from increased interdependence.

Paper submission

The deadline for the submission of an extended abstract is 15 April 2013 and that for the submission of the full paper is 30 June 2013.

Please submit extended abstracts to and


In the case of questions, please contact Mr Livio Stracca or Mr Mustafa Kilinc.