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2014 Q2

Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices published by Eurostat.

2014 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2014 2015 2016 Mar. 2015 Mar. 2016 2018
Mean point estimate 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.8
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 52 51 44 45 38 44
Probability distributions 2014 2015 2016 Mar. 2015 Mar. 2016 2018
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.30.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 4.0 1.8 1.4 2.0 1.30.7
0.0 to 0.4% 12.9 7.0 4.3 8.0 5.43.0
0.5 to 0.9% 43.4 20.6 12.2 21.6 14.27.7
1.0 to 1.4% 29.0 34.4 24.9 35.1 27.817.7
1.5 to 1.9% 8.0 24.5 34.2 22.3 31.331.1
2.0 to 2.4% 1.5 7.7 15.3 7.6 13.323.1
2.5 to 2.9% 0.6 2.4 5.1 2.2 4.310.8
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 0.8 1.6 0.6 1.43.9
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.41.1
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP, based on standardised ESA definition.

2014 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2014 2015 2016 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2018
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 53 52 43 44 43 44
Probability distributions 2014 2015 2016 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2018
<-1.0% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.40.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.9 1.31.2
0.0 to 0.4% 8.1 4.5 4.1 7.1 4.64.3
0.5 to 0.9% 23.7 13.1 10.5 19.5 10.79.9
1.0 to 1.4% 43.5 28.0 21.6 33.6 23.221.0
1.5 to 1.9% 16.6 32.4 33.0 23.7 30.729.1
2.0 to 2.4% 4.2 12.8 18.2 9.0 17.519.5
2.5 to 2.9% 1.2 4.5 7.1 3.5 7.18.8
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 1.6 2.8 0.8 2.83.6
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 1.01.4
>4.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.50.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate refers to Eurostat's definition and is calculated as a percentage of the labour force.

2014 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2014 2015 2016 Feb. 2015 Feb. 2016 2018
Mean point estimate 11.8 11.5 11.0 11.7 11.2 9.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.8
Number of replies 50 49 41 40 35 37
Probability distributions 2014 2015 2016 Feb. 2015 Feb. 2016 2018
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.6
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.1
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.8
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.13.9
8.0 to 8.4% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.38.5
8.5 to 8.9% 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.511.7
9.0 to 9.4% 0.1 0.5 2.0 0.3 1.015.6
9.5 to 9.9% 0.3 1.8 5.6 0.7 3.217.1
10.0 to 10.4% 1.4 3.7 11.3 2.6 9.116.4
10.5 to 10.9% 4.1 11.6 19.1 8.3 17.611.1
11.0 to 11.4% 12.7 27.7 29.0 21.2 30.06.7
11.5 to 11.9% 45.2 32.5 18.3 36.9 22.43.3
12.0 to 12.4% 26.3 14.6 8.3 19.7 9.91.5
12.5 to 12.9% 7.3 5.0 3.3 6.8 3.80.7
13.0 to 13.4% 1.8 1.6 1.0 2.5 1.60.1
13.5 to 13.9% 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.40.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0