2014 Q1

Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices published by Eurostat.

2014 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2014 2015 2016 Dec. 2014 Dec. 2015 2018
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 52 50 40 45 40 44
Probability distributions 2014 2015 2016 Dec. 2014 Dec. 2015 2018
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.40.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.1 1.0 0.7 1.5 1.30.8
0.0 to 0.4% 7.8 4.8 2.8 6.1 4.52.6
0.5 to 0.9% 26.0 15.2 9.4 16.7 12.97.6
1.0 to 1.4% 39.8 32.3 21.5 33.3 24.417.1
1.5 to 1.9% 19.1 28.6 36.4 26.7 30.229.7
2.0 to 2.4% 4.3 12.5 19.4 11.1 18.424.7
2.5 to 2.9% 1.1 4.0 6.6 3.4 5.511.6
3.0 to 3.4% 0.4 1.1 2.0 0.7 1.74.0
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.41.2
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.10.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP, based on standardised ESA definition.

2014 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2014 2015 2016 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2018
Mean point estimate 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.8
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 52 50 39 44 39 42
Probability distributions 2014 2015 2016 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2018
<-1.0% 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.50.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.2 0.80.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 3.3 2.1 1.9 4.1 2.31.2
0.0 to 0.4% 12.1 6.0 4.9 10.2 5.74.5
0.5 to 0.9% 29.9 13.9 11.3 23.3 13.210.2
1.0 to 1.4% 34.8 28.5 22.9 32.1 26.720.7
1.5 to 1.9% 13.7 29.4 31.2 18.5 29.028.4
2.0 to 2.4% 3.8 11.9 17.3 7.1 13.919.5
2.5 to 2.9% 1.1 4.6 6.5 2.3 5.48.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.1 2.0 2.1 0.3 1.64.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.61.6
>4.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.30.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate refers to Eurostat's definition and is calculated as a percentage of the labour force.

2014 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2014 2015 2016 Nov. 2014 Nov. 2015 2018
Mean point estimate 12.1 11.7 11.2 12.0 11.5 9.6
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.9
Number of replies 50 48 38 40 36 37
Probability distributions 2014 2015 2016 Nov. 2014 Nov. 2015 2018
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.8
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.9
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.6
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.03.0
8.0 to 8.4% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.26.3
8.5 to 8.9% 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.210.3
9.0 to 9.4% 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.1 0.715.3
9.5 to 9.9% 0.4 1.5 4.2 0.2 1.717.1
10.0 to 10.4% 0.9 3.1 7.7 1.3 5.214.4
10.5 to 10.9% 2.4 7.4 12.7 3.9 11.112.5
11.0 to 11.4% 6.9 16.8 25.4 11.6 20.68.9
11.5 to 11.9% 27.0 31.6 24.7 32.0 30.35.5
12.0 to 12.4% 43.0 25.8 14.2 32.4 18.92.4
12.5 to 12.9% 14.7 8.9 5.7 12.8 7.10.7
13.0 to 13.4% 3.3 2.9 1.9 4.2 2.90.2
13.5 to 13.9% 1.2 0.9 0.5 1.1 1.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.20.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0