2011 Q4

Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices published by Eurostat.

2011 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2011 2012 2013 Sep. 2012 Sep. 2013 2016
Mean point estimate 2.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.0
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 64 63 52 52 43 51
Probability distributions 2011 2012 2013 Sep. 2012 Sep. 2013 2016
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.30.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.80.6
0.0 to 0.4% 0.1 1.9 1.4 3.3 2.01.5
0.5 to 0.9% 0.3 6.5 5.6 10.1 6.75.2
1.0 to 1.4% 1.2 19.1 16.2 20.5 17.314.2
1.5 to 1.9% 3.2 36.4 34.2 32.3 30.930.5
2.0 to 2.4% 17.0 23.9 27.7 20.7 25.426.9
2.5 to 2.9% 69.4 8.5 10.3 8.4 12.013.1
3.0 to 3.4% 7.2 2.1 2.8 2.3 3.25.3
3.5 to 3.9% 1.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.01.7
>4.0% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.20.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP, based on standardised ESA definition.

2011 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2011 2012 2013 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2016
Mean point estimate 1.6 0.8 1.6 0.7 1.5 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 64 63 53 51 42 49
Probability distributions 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2016
<-1.0% 0.0 1.7 0.6 1.8 0.60.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 2.5 0.8 3.3 0.90.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.3 7.1 2.2 10.0 2.61.2
0.0 to 0.4% 0.8 16.2 6.1 19.6 6.83.7
0.5 to 0.9% 2.8 27.6 13.6 26.0 15.98.7
1.0 to 1.4% 23.2 26.7 26.3 21.6 24.918.5
1.5 to 1.9% 60.7 11.8 27.5 10.9 24.329.3
2.0 to 2.4% 10.0 4.4 14.2 5.0 14.622.6
2.5 to 2.9% 1.5 1.4 5.6 1.4 5.99.7
3.0 to 3.4% 0.4 0.4 2.0 0.3 2.53.7
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.91.4
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.20.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate refers to Eurostat's definition and is calculated as a percentage of the labour force.

2011 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2011 2012 2013 Aug. 2012 Aug. 2013 2016
Mean point estimate 10.0 10.0 9.7 10.0 9.7 8.5
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.9
Number of replies 59 59 50 46 41 45
Probability distributions 2011 2012 2013 Aug. 2012 Aug. 2013 2016
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.1
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.23.1
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.67.0
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 1.512.2
8.0 to 8.4% 0.1 0.7 2.5 0.9 3.619.0
8.5 to 8.9% 0.5 2.7 9.2 3.0 10.420.2
9.0 to 9.4% 3.3 10.6 21.0 13.8 19.114.3
9.5 to 9.9% 32.6 31.8 28.1 32.8 26.29.9
10.0 to 10.4% 56.3 35.2 23.0 30.4 20.85.3
10.5 to 10.9% 5.5 12.9 7.9 12.0 8.43.0
11.0 to 11.4% 1.2 4.2 3.2 4.4 4.22.0
11.5 to 11.9% 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.4 2.31.4
12.0 to 12.4% 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.5 1.30.8
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.70.5
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.40.3
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.20.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0