Coenen, Günter


Functions:

  • Head, Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division
  • Member, Forecast Steering Committee

Fields of interest:

  • Macroeconomics
  • Monetary economics
  • Macroeconomic modelling
  • Applied time-series analysis

Education:

  • Doctorate in Economics, University of Kiel, 1996
  • Diploma in Economics, University of Kiel, 1992
  • Pre-Diploma in Economics, University of Cologne, 1988

Professional experience:

  • Senior Adviser, Directorate General Research, European Central Bank, 2016 - 2017
  • Member, Monetary Policy Committee, European System of Central Banks, 2011 - 2017
  • Chair, Working Group on Econometric Modelling, European System of Central Banks, 2008 - 2017
  • Head, Monetary Policy Research Division, European Central Bank, 2011 - 2016
  • Research Visitor, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summer 2013
  • Head, Econometric Modelling Division, European Central Bank, 2005 - 2011
  • Principal, Monetary Policy Research Unit, General Economic Research Division, European Central Bank, 2003 - 2004
  • Deputy Head, Monetary Policy Research Division, European Central Bank, 2004 - 2005
  • Economist/Senior Economist, Monetary Policy Research Unit, General Economic Research Division, European Central Bank, 1998 - 2003
  • Economist, Economics Department, Deutsche Bundesbank, 1996 - 1998
No. Title Authors
2080Communication of monetary policy in unconventional timesCoenen, Günter, Ehrmann, Michael, Gaballo, Gaetano, Hoffmann, Peter, Nakov, Anton, Nardelli, Stefano, Persson, Eric, Strasser, Georg
1582Risks to price stability, the zero lower bound and forward guidance: a real-time assessmentCoenen, Günter, Warne, Anders
1536Predictive likelihood comparisons with DSGE and DSGE-VAR modelsWarne, Anders, Coenen, Günter, Christoffel, Kai
1483Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro areaStraub, Roland, Trabandt, Mathias, Coenen, Günter
1429Fiscal policy and the 'Great Recession' in the euro areaStraub, Roland, Coenen, Günter, Trabandt, Mathias
1185Forecasting with DSGE modelsWarne, Anders, Coenen, Günter, Christoffel, Kai
944The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysisWarne, Anders, Coenen, Günter, Christoffel, Kai
902Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: long-run benefits and short-run costs.Mohr, Matthias, Straub, Roland, Coenen, Günter
858International transmission and monetary policy cooperationCoenen, Günter, Lombardo, Giovanni, Smets, Frank, Straub, Roland
747Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: a simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide ModelMcAdam, Peter, Straub, Roland, Coenen, Günter
513Does government spending crowd in private consumption? Theory and empirical evidence for the euro areaCoenen, Günter, Straub, Roland
479The performance and robustness of interest-rate rules in models of the euro areaAdalid, Ramón, Coenen, Günter, McAdam, Peter, Siviero, Stefano
418Identifying the influences of nominal and real rigidities in aggregate price-setting behaviorLevin, Andrew T., Coenen, Günter
350Exchange-rate policy and the zero bound on nominal interest ratesCoenen, Günter, Wieland, Volker
290Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy designCoenen, Günter
270Downward nominal wage rigidity and the long-run Philips Curve: simulation-based evidence for the euro areaCoenen, Günter
269Zero lower bound: is it a problem in the euro area?Coenen, Günter
250Persistence, the transmission mechanism and robust monetary policyBacké, Peter, Smets, Frank, Coenen, Günter
231Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zeroOrphanides, Athanasios, Wieland, Volker, Coenen, Günter
218The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in JapanWieland, Volker, Coenen, Günter
181Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area and JapanWieland, Volker, Coenen, Günter
84Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policyLevin, Andrew T., Wieland, Volker, Coenen, Günter
30A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigiditiesWieland, Volker, Coenen, Günter
9Asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of vector autoregressive modelsCoenen, Günter
6The demand for M3 in the euro areaVega, Juan Luis, Coenen, Günter
Title Authors Where
Marginalized predictive likelihood comparisons of linear Gaussian state-space models with applications to DSGE, DSGE-VAR, and VAR models Warne, Anders, Günter Coenen and Kai Christoffel Journal of Applied Econometrics 32(1), pp. 103-119, 2017.
Risks to price stability, the zero lower bound and forward guidance: A real-time assessment Coenen, Günter and Anders Warne International Journal of Central Banking 10(2), pp. 7-54, 2014.
Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area Coenen, Günter, Roland Straub and Mathias Trabandt Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 37(2), pp. 367-386, 2013.
Fiscal policy and the Great Recession in the euro area Coenen, Günter, Roland Straub and Mathias Trabandt American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 102(3), pp. 71-76, 2012.
Effects of fiscal stimulus in structural models Coenen, Günter, Chris Erceg, Charles Freedman, Davide Furceri, Michael Kumhof, René Lalonde, Douglas Laxton, Jesper Lindé, Annabelle Mourougane, Dirk Muir, Susanna Mursula, John Roberts, Werner Roeger, Stephen Snudden, Mathias Trabandt, Jan in't Veld American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4(1), pp. 22-68, 2012.
Forecasting with DSGE models Christoffel, Kai, Günter Coenen and Anders Warne Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry (eds), Oxford University Press, Oxford, Chapter 4, pp. 89-127, 2011.
DSGE models and their use at the ECB Christoffel, Kai, Günter Coenen, Roberto Motto, Massimo Rostagno and Frank Smets SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 1(1-2), pp. 51-65, 2010.
International transmission and monetary policy cooperation Coenen, Günter, Giovanni Lombardo, Frank Smets and Roland Straub International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, Jordi Galí and Mark Gertler (eds), NBER, Cambridge, M.A., Chapter 3, pp. 157-192, 2010.
Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: Long-run benefits and short-run costs Coenen, Günter, Mathias Mohr and Roland Straub Economic Modelling 25(5), pp. 912-932, 2008.
Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model Coenen, Günter, Peter McAdam and Roland Straub Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 32(8), pp. 2543-2583, 2008.
Identifying the influences of nominal and real rigidities in aggregate price-setting behavior Coenen, Günter, Andrew Levin and Kai Christoffel Journal of Monetary Economics 54(8), pp. 2439-2466, 2007.
Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design Coenen, Günter Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 31(1), pp. 111-140, 2007.
Does government spending crowd in private consumption? Theory and empirical evidence for the euro area Coenen, Günter and Roland Straub International Finance 8(3), pp. 435-470, 2005.
The performance and robustness of interest-rate rules in models of the euro area Adalid, Ramon, Günter Coenen, Peter McAdam and Stefano Siviero International Journal of Central Banking 1(1), pp. 95-132, 2005.
A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities Coenen, Günter and Volker Wieland European Economic Review 49(5), pp. 1081-1104, 2005.
Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy Coenen, Günter, Andrew Levin and Volker Wieland European Economic Review 49(4), pp. 975-1006, 2005.
Asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of vector autoregressive models Coenen, Günter Empirical Economics 30(1), pp. 65-75, 2005.
Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero Coenen, Günter, Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland Advances in Macroeconomics 4(1), Article 1, http://www.bepress.com/bejm/advances/vol4/iss1/1, 2004.
Exchange-rate policy and the zero bound on nominal interest rates Coenen, Günter and Volker Wieland American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 94(2), pp. 80-84, 2004.
The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan Coenen, Günter and Volker Wieland Journal of Monetary Economics 50(5), pp. 1071-1101, 2003.
Zero lower bound: Is it a problem in the euro area? Coenen, Günter Background Studies for the ECB’s Evaluation of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Otmar Issing (ed.), European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, pp. 139-155, 2003.
Downward nominal wage rigidity and the long-run Phillips curve: Simulation-based evidence for the euro area Coenen, Günter Background Studies for the ECB’s Evaluation of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Otmar Issing (ed.), European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, pp. 127-138, 2003.
Persistence, the transmission mechanism and robust monetary policy Angeloni, Ignazio, Günter Coenen and Frank Smets Scottish Journal of Political Economy 50(5), pp. 527-549, 2003.
The demand for M3 in the euro area Coenen, Günter and Juan-Luis Vega Journal of Applied Econometrics 16(6), pp. 727-748, 2001.
Inflation versus monetary targeting in a P-star model with rational expectations Coenen, Günter Topics in Monetary Policy Modeling, BIS (ed.), BIS Conference Papers Vol. 4, Bank for International Settlements, Basle, pp. 215-234, 1998.
Intertemporale Substitution in der Realen Konjunkturtheorie: Eine empirische Untersuchung unter Verwendung simulationsgestützter indirekter Schätz- und Testverfahren Coenen, Günter Dissertation, Haag+Herchen, Frankfurt am Main, 1997.
Das Sattelpunktproblem in der monetären Wechselkurstheorie Coenen, Günter WiSt - Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium 24(8), pp. 430-433, 1995.
Title Authors Where
DSGE models and counterfactual analysis Coenen, Günter, Roberto Motto, Massimo Rostagno, Sebastian Schmidt and Frank Smets DSGE Models in the Conduct of Policy: Use as Intended, Refet S. Gürkaynak and Cédric Tille (eds), CEPR Press, London, Chapter 7, pp. 70-82, April 2017.
The role of the ECB's asset purchases in preventing a potential de-anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations Coenen, Günter and Sebastian Schmidt Research Bulletin No. 25, European Central Bank, July 2016.
Extended version of 'Fiscal policy and the Great Recession in the euro area', American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings) 102(3) Coenen, Günter, Roland Straub and Mathias Trabandt Manuscript, European Central Bank, December 2011.
When does fiscal stimulus work? Coenen, Günter, Juha Kilponen and Mathias Trabandt Research Bulletin No. 10, European Central Bank, June 2010.
Effects of fiscal stimulus in structural models Coenen, Günter, Chris Erceg, Charles Freedman, Davide Furceri, Michael Kumhof, René Lalonde, Douglas Laxton, Jesper Lindé, Annabelle Mourougane, Dirk Muir, Susanna Mursula, John Roberts, Werner Roeger, Stephen Snudden, Mathias Trabandt, Jan in't Veld IMF Working Paper WP/10/73, March 2010.
Extending the NAWM with a non-zero import content of exports Coenen, Günter and Igor Vetlov Manuscript, European Central Bank, September 2009.
Estimation of the euro area output gap using the NAWM Coenen, Günter, Frank Smets and Igor Vetlov Bank of Lithuania Working Paper No. 5, June 2009.
A Real-Time DataBase (RTDB) for the euro area Ciccarelli, Matteo, Günter Coenen and Jérôme Henry Research Bulletin No. 5, European Central Bank, December 2006.
Discussion of 'The New-Keynesian Phillips curve when inflation is non-stationary: The case of Canada' by Nicoletta Batini and Bergljot Bjørnson Barkbu Coenen, Günter Issues in Inflation Targeting, Bank of Canada, Ottawa, pp. 82-87, 2006.
How do VAT changes affect the economy? An illustration using the New Area-Wide Model Coenen, Günter and Peter McAdam Research Bulletin No. 4, European Central Bank, April 2006.
Extended summary of 'The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan', Journal of Monetary Economics 50(5) Coenen, Günter and Volker Wieland 2003 Japan Conference: A Summary of the Papers, NBER, Cambridge, M.A., pp. 8-9, 2004.
Extended version of 'Exchange-rate policy and the zero bound on nominal interest rates', American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings) 94(2) Coenen, Günter and Volker Wieland Manuscript, European Central Bank, January 2004.
Discussion of 'Monetary transmission and controllability of money in Europe: A structural vector error correction approach', by Peter Vlaar and Helene Schuberth Coenen, Günter De Nederlandsche Bank, Staff Report No. 36, pp. 35-43, 1999.
Evaluating monetary policy rules in a P-star model with rational expectations using indirect inference Coenen, Günter Manuscript, Deutsche Bundesbank, May 1998.
Intertemporal effects of fiscal consolidation in an RBC model Coenen, Günter Discussion Paper of the Research Group of the Deutsche Bundesbank 2/98, April 1998.
A further note on computing competitive equilibria in linear-quadratic models Coenen, Günter Manuscript, Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, University of Kiel, 1995.
Eine Einführung in die Analyse linearer sattelpunktstabiler Systeme Coenen, Günter Arbeiten aus dem Institut für Statistik und Ökonometrie der Christian-Albrechts-Universität Kiel No. 66, 1992.