ECB Economics conference on emerging Europe
'From crisis to recovery: old and new challenges in emerging Europe'

Tuesday, 5 July

9.15 a.m. - 10 a.m.	Registration
10 a.m. - 10.30 a.m.	Welcoming remarks Mr Bini Smaghi, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
	Session 1: Building a sustainable recovery: the effectiveness of policy responses to the crisis
10.30 a.m. - 12 p.m.	Chair: Frank Moss, Director General, European Central Bank
	Which domestic and international policy responses to the crisis have been most effective in containing its impact and strengthening sustainable growth? Are there heterogeneities in the economic recovery across the region, and if so, to what extent are they related to differences in the scope for monetary and fiscal policy to support growth? What factors are supporting the cyclical upturn? Are macroeconomic imbalances widening and capital inflows surging again as the economies are emerging from the crisis and, if so, how can governments respond to avoid the build-up of new vulnerabilities?
	Lead speaker: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Deputy Chief Economist, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (20 minutes)
	Other speakers (10 minutes each): Michael Landesmann, Director of Research, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Cristian Popa, Deputy Governor, Banca Naţională a României Ali Hakan Kara, Head of Research and Monetary Policy, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Mark Allen, Senior Regional Representative, International Monetary Fund
	Discussion
12 p.m. - 2 p.m.	Lunch
	Session 2: Refining the growth model to support sustainable convergence
2 p.m. - 3.30 p.m.	Chair: Reiner Martin, Head of Section, European Central Bank
	What are the preconditions for sustainable growth? Which policy measures can help to create a more sustainable growth and convergence model in the region? What are suitable policy measures to support an environment with lower, less volatile inflation? What has been the role of exchange rate flexibility in the convergence process so far? Looking at real convergence, why are some countries more successful than others in developing export-oriented industries, upgrading the technological contents of their exports and diversifying their export base?
	Lead speaker: Bas Bakker, Division Chief, International Monetary Fund (20 minutes)
	Other speakers (10 minutes each): Zsolt Darvas, Research Fellow, Bruegel Zdenĕk Čech, Senior Economist, European Commission Jacek Kotłowski, Economic Advisor, Narodowy Bank Polski Aneta Krstevska, Chief Economist, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia
	Discussion
3.30 p.m. - 4 p.m.	Coffee break
	Session 3: Assessing the pros and cons of financial integration
4 p.m. - 5.30 p.m.	Chair: Philipp Hartmann, Principal Adviser, European Central Bank
	Through which channels has rapid financial sector development supported growth in the region? Why did rapid financial sector expansion stimulate consumption growth and a real estate boom rather than productive investment in the tradable sectors in some countries? Do the benefits of financial development depend on initial conditions such as the degree of trade integration and the level of EU convergence? Did financial integration together with a dominant position of foreign banks in the CESEE banking sectors foster financial sector resilience during the global financial crisis? What are the vulnerabilities associated with this model of financial development?
	Lead speaker: Fabrizio Coricelli, Professor of Economics, Paris School of Economics (20 minutes)
	Other speakers (10 minutes each): Juan Zalduendo, Lead Economist, The World Bank Adalbert Winkler, Professor for Development Finance, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management Ljubinko Jankov, Executive Director, Croatian National Bank Mindaugas Leika, Head of Division, Lietuvos bankas
	Discussion
7.30 p.m.	Conference dinner Dinner speech: Jürgen Stark, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

Wednesday, 6 July

8.30 a.m. - 9.00 a.m.	Registration
	Session 4: Financial stability challenges: balance sheet repair and reviving private sector lending
9 a.m. - 10.30 a.m.	Chair: Carsten Detken, Head of Division, European Central Bank
	What are the main risks to financial stability in the region in the aftermath of the crisis? Is there a risk that the increase in non-performing loans and reduced profitability could induce parent banks to revise their long-term commitments in the region? How important is the continuation of the European Bank Coordination Initiative (Vienna Initiative) in this regard? What has been the experience with debt restructuring measures in countries with a high debt overhang? What measures have been taken to stimulate credit growth and are they effective? Have measures been taken to increase the share of local currency lending in new lending? Is there any evidence of a “creditless” recovery in some countries, and if so, what are the causes and consequences?
	Lead speaker: Peter Mooslechner, Director, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (20 minutes)
	Other speakers (10 minutes each): Peter Grasmann, Head of Unit, European Commission Martin Bijsterbosch, Principal Economist, European Central Bank Elöd Takáts, Economist, Bank for International Settlements Karlis Bauze, Head of Department, Latvijas Banka
	Discussion
10.30 a.m. - 11:00 a.m.	Coffee break
	Session 5: Panel discussion: Economic prospects and key policy issues in the Western Balkans and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
11 a.m. - 1 p.m.	Chair: Benjamin Vonessen, Head of Division, European Central Bank
	What are the long-term growth and convergence prospects for the countries of the Western Balkans and the CIS? What are the implications of rising food and oil prices for economic growth, monetary policy and fiscal consolidation in countries where these prices still have a high weight in the CPI? What are the causes of the weak performance of these countries with respect to various competitiveness indicators? Which policies and structural reforms are most needed to improve their position in the competitiveness rankings? In particular, how can the need for further fiscal consolidation be reconciled with the need for substantial public investment in infrastructure and education?
	Panellists: Thierry Bracke, Deputy Head of Division, European Central Bank Branko Urošević, Special Advisor to the Governor, National Bank of Serbia Altin Tanku, Director, Bank of Albania Amir Hadžiomeragić, Head of Department, Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina Ms Marijana Mitrović-Mijatović, Director, Central Bank of Montenegro
1 p.m. - 2 p.m.	Lunch

General Information

The conference will be jointly organised by the ECB’s Directorate General Economics and the Directorate General International and European Relations. The organising committee of the workshop includes Olga Arratibel, Gudrun Becker, Thierry Bracke, Kristel Buysse, Sabine Ervens and Reiner Martin. If you require any further information on this event, please send an e-mail to Conference_Emerging_Europe@ecb.europa.eu