ECB News: December 2011

 

Archive

 
29/12/2011
Monetary developments in the euro area, more
 
28/12/2011
20110152 (OT,liquidity absorbing):211000 mn EUR alloted (marginal 0.89%, weighted average 0.56%, 63.1233% allotment at margin), more
 
28/12/2011
20110151 (MRO,liquidity providing):144754.9 mn EUR alloted (fixed 1%, 100% allotment at margin), more
 
24/12/2011
Announcing 20110151 (MRO,liquidity providing), for 7 days deadline 09:30, more
 
23/12/2011
Fine-tuning operation, more
 
22/12/2011
20110149 (LTRO,liquidity providing):489190.75 mn EUR alloted ( % allotment at margin), more
 
22/12/2011
20110148 (LTRO,liquidity providing):29740.7 mn EUR alloted ( % allotment at margin), more
 
22/12/2011
20110150 (OT,liquidity providing):33003.7 mn USD alloted (fixed 0.57%, 100% allotment at margin), more
 
22/12/2011
Press release The ECB expresses concern about the independence of the central bank of Hungary, en
 
22/12/2011
Other decisions Decisions taken by the Governing Council of the ECB (in addition to decisions setting interest rates), en
 
22/12/2011
CON/2011/106 Opinion on the Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s independence, en
 
22/12/2011
CON/2011/107 Opinion on amendments to the resolution regime for credit institutions, en
 
21/12/2011
Announcing 20110149 (LTRO,liquidity providing), for 1134 days deadline 09:30, more
 
21/12/2011
Announcing 20110148 (LTRO,liquidity providing), for 98 days deadline 09:30, more
 
21/12/2011
20110147 (OT,liquidity absorbing):211000 mn EUR alloted (marginal 0.75%, weighted average 0.53%, 73.3407% allotment at margin), more
 
21/12/2011
20110145 (MRO,liquidity providing):169024 mn EUR alloted (fixed 1%, 100% allotment at margin), more
 
21/12/2011
20110146 (OT,liquidity providing):141925 mn EUR alloted (fixed 1%, 100% allotment at margin), more
 
21/12/2011
Legal working paper no. 13 Crisis management and bank resolution: Quo vadis, Europe? , by Barbara Jeanne Attinger, download
 
21/12/2011
No. 0: Crisis management and bank resolution: Quo vadis, Europe?, by Barbara Jeanne Attinger, description, download
Crisis management in the financial sector is currently at the top of the reform agenda at national, European and international level. Well-designed bank resolution regimes are essential not only to meet the acute need of a credit institution in crisis but also to ensure that proper incentive structures operate in the market prior to any crisis. Existing regimes are inadequate and incentive structures have proven to be fundamentally destructive. The lack of workable crisis resolution tools has had an adverse effect on crisis prevention and imposed enormous costs on the taxpayer. Effective crisis management demands the ability to manage. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, two leading EU Member States (the United Kingdom and Germany) adopted special resolution regimes, providing for tools and powers to manage the resolution of banks. The paper assesses and compares these two approaches. In addition, the paper analyses the emerging response at European and international level, focusing in particular on bail-ins, the suspension of netting and other rights, treatment of groups and systemically important financial institutions. At the international level, the Financial Stability Board’s recently published ‘Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions’ constitute a breakthrough in the development of a global resolution regime. At the EU level, the European Commission’s proposal for an EU crisis management regime is expected to be an even more ambitious step. The European financial sector reforms have the potential to achieve a quantum leap in the efficient cross-border management of key issues, in particular in the field of bank resolution and insolvency law. This may evolve into a whole new dimension of efficient cooperation and economic and political convergence. In the field of crisis management, the fact cannot be ignored that we need more Europe, not less.
 
21/12/2011
ECB/2011/27 Guideline of the ECB of 21 December 2011 amending Guideline ECB/2010/20 on the legal framework for accounting and financial reporting in the European System of Central Banks , en
 
20/12/2011
Announcing 20110145 (MRO,liquidity providing), for 7 days deadline 09:30, more
 
20/12/2011
Euro area investment fund statistics, more
 
20/12/2011
No. 1411: Government bond risk premia and the cyclicality of fiscal policy, by Kai Christoffel, Ivan Jaccard, Juha Kilponen, description, download
(JEL: E5, E6, G1) We introduce a specification of habit formation featuring non-separability between consumption and leisure into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. The model can be estimated with standard Bayesian techniques and the bond pricing implications are evaluated using higher-order approximations. The model is able to reproduce a sizeable risk premium on long-term bonds and the cyclicality of fiscal policy has an impact on the bond premium that is quantitatively important. Technology, government spending, and mark-up shocks are the main drivers of the time-variation in bond premia.
 
20/12/2011
No. 1410: Profit dynamics across the largest euro area countries and sectors, by Laurent Maurin, Moreno Roma, Igor Vetlov, description, download
(JEL: C32, E23, E25) This paper explores the behavior of profits in the four largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) and the euro area as a whole, while at the same time considering three main sectors (manufacturing, construction and services) in each economy over the period 1988–2010. The paper presents stylized facts about profit developments and, applying a vector autoregressive modeling framework, discusses the sensitivity of profits to four distinctive structural shocks (a demand shock, an employment shock, a wage and price mark-up shocks). In addition, it provides the shock decomposition of historical developments in profits across countries and sectors.
 
20/12/2011
No. 1409: Analysis of variance for bayesian inference, by John Geweke, Gianni Amisano, description, download
(JEL: C11, C53) This paper develops a multi-way analysis of variance for non-Gaussian multivariate distributions and provides a practical simulation algorithm to estimate the corresponding components of variance. It specifically addresses variance in Bayesian predictive distributions, showing that it may be decomposed into the sum of extrinsic variance, arising from posterior uncertainty about parameters, and intrinsic variance, which would exist even if parameters were known. Depending on the application at hand, further decomposition of extrinsic or intrinsic variance (or both) may be useful. The paper shows how to produce simulation-consistent estimates of all of these components, and the method demands little additional effort or computing time beyond that already invested in the posterior simulator. It illustrates the methods using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the US economy, both before and during the global financial crisis.
 
20/12/2011
Publication Letter from the ECB President to Mr Sven Giegold, Member of the European Parliament , download
 
20/12/2011
Publication Letter from the ECB President to Mr Nuno Melo, Member of the European Parliament , download
 
19/12/2011
Speech Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, en
 
19/12/2011
Press release Financial stability review – December 2011, en
 
19/12/2011
Interview Mario Draghi: Interview with the Financial Times, en
 
19/12/2011
Euro area balance of payments in October 2011, more
 
19/12/2011
Publication Financial Stability Review , download
 
19/12/2011
Fine-tuning operation, more
 
16/12/2011
Speech Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: The reform of the international monetary system, en
 
16/12/2011
Press release ECB announces two one-day liquidity-providing fine-tuning operations, en
 
16/12/2011
Press release ECB publishes consolidated banking data for 2011, en
 
16/12/2011
Fine-tuning operation, more
 
15/12/2011
20110144 (OT,liquidity providing):5122 mn USD alloted (fixed 0.58%, 100% allotment at margin), more
 
15/12/2011
Speech Mario Draghi: The euro, monetary policy and the design of a fiscal compact, en
 
15/12/2011
Statistics Pocket Book Statistics Pocket Book, December 2011, download
 
15/12/2011
Monthly Bulletin Monthly Bulletin, December 2011, download
 
14/12/2011
20110143 (OT,liquidity absorbing):258028.8 mn EUR alloted (marginal 1.05%, weighted average 1.03%, 100% allotment at margin), more
 
14/12/2011
20110142 (OT,liquidity absorbing):207500 mn EUR alloted (marginal 0.8%, weighted average 0.49%, 1.0072% allotment at margin), more
 
14/12/2011
20110141 (LTRO,liquidity providing):41150.3 mn EUR alloted (fixed 1%, 100% allotment at margin), more
 
14/12/2011
20110140 (MRO,liquidity providing):291629.3 mn EUR alloted (fixed 1%, 100% allotment at margin), more
 
14/12/2011
ECB/2011/25 Decision of the ECB of 14 December 2011 on additional temporary measures relating to Eurosystem refinancing operations and eligibility of collateral, en
 
14/12/2011
CON/2011/104 Opinion on the Magyar Nemzeti Bank, en
 
14/12/2011
ECB/2011/26 Regulation (EU) No 1358/2011 of the ECB of 14 December 2011 amending Regulation (EC) No 1745/2003 on the application of minimum reserves (ECB/2003/9) , en
 
14/12/2011
ECB/2011/25 Decision of the ECB of 14 December 2011 on additional temporary measures relating to Eurosystem refinancing operations and eligibility of collateral, en
 
13/12/2011
Announcing 20110141 (LTRO,liquidity providing), for 35 days deadline 09:30, more
 
13/12/2011
Announcing 20110140 (MRO,liquidity providing), for 7 days deadline 09:30, more
 
13/12/2011
No. 1408: Real-time data and fiscal analysis: a survey of the literature, by Jacopo Cimadomo, description, download
(JEL: E62, H60, H68) This paper surveys the empirical research on fiscal policy analysis based on real-time data. This literature can be broadly divided in three groups that focus on: (1) the statistical properties of revisions in fiscal data; (2) the political and institutional determinants of projection errors by governments and (3) the reaction of fiscal policies to the business cycle. It emerges that, first, fiscal data revisions are large and initial releases are biased estimates of final values. Second, the presence of strong fiscal rules and institutions leads to relatively more accurate releases of fiscal data and small deviations of fiscal outcomes from government plans. Third, the cyclical stance of fiscal policies is estimated to be more ‘counter-cyclical’ when real-time data are used instead of ex-post data. Finally, more work is needed for the development of real-time datasets for fiscal policy analysis. In particular, a comprehensive real-time dataset including fiscal variables for industrialized (and possibly developing) countries, published and maintained by central banks or other institutions, is still missing.
 
13/12/2011
No. 1407: Macroeconomic vulnerability and disagreement in expectations, by Cristian Badarinza, Marco Buchmann, description, download
(JEL: C53, D8, E32) In this paper we discuss the role of the cross-sectional heterogeneity of beliefs in the context of understanding and assessing macroeconomic vulnerability. Emphasis lies on the potential of changing levels of disagreement in expectations to influence the propensity of the economy to switch between different regimes, a hypothesis that finds robust empirical support from a regime-switching model with endogenous transition probabilities for output growth and realized stock market volatility in the US.
 
13/12/2011
No. 1406: The public sector pay gap in a selection of Euro area countries, by Raffaela Giordano, Domenico Depalo, Manuel Coutinho Pereira, Bruno Eugène, Evangelia Papapetrou, Javier J. Perez, Lukas Reiss, Mojca Roter, description, download
(JEL: J310, J450, O520) We investigate the public-private wage differentials in ten euro area countries (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain). To account for differences in employment characteristics between the two sectors, we focus on micro data taken from EU-SILC. The results point to a conditional pay differential in favour of the public sector that is generally higher for women, at the low tail of the wage distribution, in the Education and the Public administration sectors rather than in the Health sector. Notable differences emerge across countries, with Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain exhibiting higher public sector premia than other countries.
 
13/12/2011
No. 1405: Bond market co-movements, expected inflation and the equilibrium real exchange rate, by Corrado Macchiarelli, description, download
(JEL: E31, E43, E44, F31, C58) Since the end of the fixed rates in 1973 and after the EMS sterling dismissal in 1992, the value of the pound has undergone large cyclical fluctuations on average. Of particular interest to policy makers is the understanding of whether such movements are consistent with the lack or not of a correction mechanism to some long-run equilibrium. The purpose of the present study is to understand those dynamics, how the external value of the British sterling relative to the USD evolved during the recent floating experiences, and what have been the driving forces. In this paper we assume the real exchange rate to be determined by forces relating to the goods and capital market in a general equilibrium framework. This entails testing the purchasing power parity and the uncovered interest parity together. Our findings have two important implications, both for monetary policy. First, we show that some of the observed changes in the real exchange rates can not be solely attributed to changes in inflation rates, but, possibly, also to investors’ behavior. Secondly, we show that the special US dollar status of World reserve currency results into a weaker behavior of the US bond rate on international markets.
 
13/12/2011
No. 1404: A VAR analysis for the uncovered interest parity and the ex-ante purchasing power parity: the role of marcoeconomic and financial information, by Corrado Macchiarelli, description, download
(JEL: E31, E43, E44, F31, C58) This study revisits the relation between the uncovered interest parity (UIP), the ex ante purchasing power parity (EXPPP) and the real interest parity (RIP) using a VAR approach for the US dollar, the British sterling and the Japanese yen interest rates, exchange rates and changes in prices. The original contribution is on developing some joint coefficient-based tests for the three parities conditions at a long horizon. Particularly, test results are derived by rewriting the UIP, the EXPPP and the RIP as a set of cross-equation restrictions in the VAR (see also Campbell and Shiller, 1987; Bekaert and Hodrick, 2001; and Bekaert et al., 2007; King and Kurmann, 2002). Consistent with the idea of some form of proportionality among the above three parities, we find a ”forward premium” bias in both the UIP - as it is normally found in empirical analysis (e.g. Fama, 1987) - and the ex ante PPP. The latter result is new in the literature and stems from testing the PPP in expectational terms, thus assuming agents to bear on the uncertainty of future exchange rate changes and inflation dynamics. The overall results confirm the UIP to be currency-based (see also Bekaert et al., 2007) and the EXPPP to be horizon-dependent (see also Lothian and Taylor, 1996; Taylor, 2002). Moreover, we find (weak) evidence that conditioning the VAR on variables having a strong forward-looking component (i.e. share prices) helps recover a unitary coefficient in the UIP equation.
 
13/12/2011
No. 1403: Do EU structural funds promote regional employment? Evidence from dynamic panel data, by Philipp Mohl, Tobias Hagen, description, download
(JEL: R11, R12, C23, J20) Despite its rather broad goal of promoting “economic, social and territorial cohesion”, the existing literature has mainly focused on investigating the Cohesion Policy’s growth effects. This ignores the fact that part of the EU expenditures is directly aimed at reducing disparities in the employment sector. Against this background, the paper analyses the impact of EU structural funds on employment drawing on a panel dataset of 130 European NUTS regions over the time period 1999-2007. Compared to previous studies we (i) explicitly take into account the unambiguous theoretical propositions by testing the conditional impact of structural funds on the educational attainment of the regional labour supply, (ii) use more precise measures of structural funds for an extended time horizon and (iii) examine the robustness of our results by comparing different dynamic panel econometric approaches to control for heteroscedasticity, serial and spatial correlation as well as for endogeneity. Our results indicate that high-skilled population in particular benefits from EU structural funds.
 
13/12/2011
No. 1402: Monetary policy and the flow of funds in the Euro Area, by Riccardo Bonci, description, download
(JEL: E32, E4, E52, G11) This paper provides new evidence on the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area, assessing the impact of an unexpected increase of the short-term interest on the lending and borrowing activity of the different economic sectors. We exploit the information content of the flow-of-funds statistics, that provide the most appropriate framework to analyse the flowing of funds from one sector (the lender) to the other (the borrower). We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate a small VAR model for the euro area over the period 1991Q1 to 2009Q2. Then, we extend the benchmark VAR model in order to include the flow-of-funds series and analyse the response of the latter variables to a contractionary monetary policy shock. We find that the policy tightening is followed by a worsening of the budget deficit; firms cut on their demand for bank loans, partially replacing them with inter-company loans, and draw on their liquidity to try to offset the fall of revenues associated with the slowdown of economic activity; households reduce net borrowing and increase precautionary saving in the short run. Consistent with the bank lending channel of monetary policy at work, the interest rate hike is followed by a short-run deceleration of credit growth, mainly driven by the response of banks.
 
13/12/2011
Fine-tuning operation , more
 
12/12/2011
Euro area securities issues statistics, more
 
12/12/2011
Fine-tuning operation, more
 
12/12/2011
CON/2011/103 Opinion on the establishment and financing of a resolution fund and on the amended calculation of contributions to the deposit guarantee scheme, en
 
09/12/2011
ECB/2011/22 Recommendation of the ECB of 9 December 2011 to the Council of the European Union on the external auditors of De Nederlandsche Bank , en
 
09/12/2011
CON/2011/105 Opinion on the authentication of euro coins and handling of euro coins unfit for circulation and the imposition of administrative measures and penalties, en
 
09/12/2011
ECB/2011/23 Guideline of the ECB of 9 December 2011 on the statistical reporting requirements of the ECB in the field of external statistics (recast), en
 
09/12/2011
ECB/2011/24 Recommendation of the ECB of 9 December 2011 on the statistical reporting requirements of the ECB in the field of external statistics, en
 
09/12/2011
Speech Peter Praet: The State of the global economy, en
 
09/12/2011
Publication Letter from the ECB President to Ms Rodi Kratsa-Tsagaropoulou, Member of the European Parliament , download
 
09/12/2011
CON/2011/102 Opinion on the payment of an increase in Romania’s International Monetary Fund quota, en
 
08/12/2011
20110139 (OT,liquidity providing):50685 mn USD alloted (fixed 0.59%, 100% allotment at margin), more
 
08/12/2011
20110138 (OT,liquidity providing):1602 mn USD alloted (fixed 0.58%, 100% allotment at margin), more
 
08/12/2011
Publication Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area , download
 
08/12/2011
Speech Vítor Constâncio: Challenges to monetary policy in 2012, en
 
08/12/2011
Press release Opinion of the ECB’s Governing Council on the appointment of a new ECB Executive Board member, en
 
08/12/2011
Press release ECB announces measures to support bank lending and money market activity, en
 
08/12/2011
Press release Monetary policy decisions, en
 
08/12/2011
Press conference Mario Draghi: Introductory statement to the press conference, en
 
08/12/2011
Publication Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area , download
 
07/12/2011
20110136 (OT,liquidity absorbing):207000 mn EUR alloted (marginal 1%, weighted average 0.65%, 79.6756% allotment at margin), more
 
07/12/2011
20110135 (MRO,liquidity providing):252100.3 mn EUR alloted (fixed 1.25%, 100% allotment at margin), more
 
07/12/2011
CON/2011/100 Opinion on a Council recommendation on the appointment of a member of the Executive Board of the ECB, en
 
07/12/2011
Press release ECB publishes structural financial indicators for 2010, en
 
07/12/2011
CON/2011/98 Opinion on the legislation governing the financing of the central register of bank account numbers, en
 
07/12/2011
CON/2011/100 Opinion on a Council recommendation on the appointment of a member of the Executive Board of the ECB, en
 
07/12/2011
CON/2011/99 Opinion on the revised amendments to Lietuvos bankas' profit distribution rules, en
 
07/12/2011
CON/2011/101 Opinion on securities markets legislation, en
 
05/12/2011
Fine-tuning operation, more
 
05/12/2011
CON/2011/97 Opinion on representation and the payment of quota shares in the International Monetary Fund, en
 
05/12/2011
CON/2011/96 Opinion on fiscal responsibility , en
 
02/12/2011
Speech Jürgen Stark: Economic situation and fiscal challenges, en
 
02/12/2011
Press release 2nd International Conference on the Protection of the Euro against counterfeiting, en
 
02/12/2011
MFI interest rate statistics, more
 
01/12/2011
20110132 (LTRO,liquidity providing):38619.8 mn EUR alloted ( % allotment at margin), more
 
01/12/2011
20110134 (OT,liquidity providing):352 mn USD alloted (fixed 1.08%, 100% allotment at margin), more
 
01/12/2011
Press release Assessment of new direct and relayed links between securities settlement systems in the euro area, en
 
01/12/2011
Press release Report on the results of the survey on the access to finance of small and medium-sized enterprises in the euro area – April to September 2011, en
 
01/12/2011
Speech Mario Draghi: Hearing before the Plenary of the European Parliament on the occasion of the adoption of the Resolution on the ECB’s 2010 Annual Report, en
 
01/12/2011
Publication Survey on the access to finance of SMEs in the euro area - April to September 2011 , download
 
01/12/2011
ECB/2011/21 Decision of the ECB of 1 December 2011 on the approval of the volume of coin issuance in 2012, en